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NFL O/U at 73.2%

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
have u tested your system on NCAA or NBA?
 
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Posted: #77
Charger is at 49.5 now. So this game should have a rating of 6.3, right?
 
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Posted: #78
Mgut ... Thanks!
 
Alex, I want to try and set it up for NBA O/U's ... the amount of work setting it up is incredible and may not work for NCAA FB.  Yep, since I have under, a line move from 50.5 to 49.5 would mean subtract from the rating.  Since I already have bets down on the top 12 I would like to see lotsa subtractions. LOL
 
Here is my updated list after adding MNF stats ... not much difference at all.  I will add the 3 missing games when I get the lines from Station casinos.
 
Chargers Under 50.5 / 7.3
Dolphins Under 42 / 5.6
Falcons Under 42.5 / 5.2
Saints Under 52.5 / 5.1
Seahawks Under 41.5 / 4.4
Jaguars Over 40 / 3.8
Cardinals Under 48.5 / 3.2
Ravens Over 38.5 / 3.1
Steelers Over 35 / 2.5
Lions Over 41 / 2.3
Titans Over 40 / 2.2
Broncos Over 43 / 1.9
Cowboys Under 48 / 0.4
Browns 49.2
Rams 45.8
Chiefs 43.6 
 
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Posted: #79
kenyon I'm good at running numbers a couple of us could do the work for the NBA o/u. It would be nice to get NBA going on this a lot more games to wager. I'm very impressed with your NFL o/u very good stuff you got here.


 
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Posted: #80
Here are all 16 games sorted according to my rating.  I have bets down on the 12 bold games at the given lines.  The lines have changed but adjust as described previously.  Four lines have moved in a favorable direction and two in a negative direction.  The two bad ones are games in Denver and Pittsburgh where weather is an issue.  I'll make corrections for that next week.
Chargers Under 50.5 / 7.3
Dolphins Under 42 / 5.6
Falcons Under 42.5 / 5.2
Saints Under 52.5 / 5.1
Seahawks Under 41.5 / 4.4
Jaguars Over 40 / 3.8
Cardinals Under 48.5 / 3.2
Ravens Over 38.5 / 3.1
Steelers Over 35 / 2.5
Lions Over 41 / 2.3
Rams Over 43.5 / 2.3
Titans Over 40 / 2.2
Broncos Over 43 / 1.9
Cowboys Under 48 / 0.4
Browns Under 49.5 / 0.3
Chiefs Over 43.5 / 0.1
 
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Posted: #81
higher the raiting = higher the chance it wins?
 
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Posted: #82
with the expected bad weather, do still like the over for Steelers at 34.5?
 
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Posted: #83
so based on this system, is the Steelers game a decent play?
 
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Posted: #84
Alex, I haven't really had any time to cap this game, I've been working on my NBA system.  We saw what happened in NE with all the weather hype ... it turned out to be a non-issue.  From what I hear wind is what you really have to watch out for.  I put my money on over 35 on Monday, so you know what I like.
 
Dukie, The system has the score at 37.4, so a line at 34.5 now gives it a 2.9 rating, which makes it not a top 5 play this week.  But 2.9 and 3.0 ratings were top 5 plays the last two weeks, so I would say it is "decent" play.  Here are my numbers for the game.
 
Visitor Offense vs Home Defense
Pass   Rate   Rush    Scor
-17      -29      -173      -35

Home Offense vs Visitor Defense
Pass   Rate    Rush    Scor
-17        8         5          3
 
Negative #'s are not good ... so as we can see the Bungles are in trouble on all accounts and Big Ben doesn't have positive #'s passing in this game.   Looks like the Bungles can't rush with a big -175, so look for them to pass.  Either way success or picks it should lead to some points.
 
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Posted: #85
Wow! It hit 37 exactly. Very nice!
 
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Posted: #86
k,
another winner
 
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Posted: #87
Yea, I guess 37.4 rounds to 34.  To my new best friend Marvin Lewis ...
 
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Posted: #88
37 I mean
 
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Posted: #89
Good Job K.
 
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Posted: #90
 I'm a little confused. How do you calculate your rating number? Also, how do you get the system over/under total?
 
 
 
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Posted: #91
Empire,  The rating is simply the difference between my line and the Vegas line, the higher the better.  Predicting the total is done comparing stats ... read my first post and a few later ones for my attempt to describe how I do it.
 
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Posted: #92
ok, so your rating number is the difference between the system score and the vegas line. How do you calculate your system score?
 
 
 
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Posted: #93

emp,

jus follow da leader(top 5-6 picks)

all k's picks total , jus some more than others

 
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Posted: #94
I like your system K, keep picking them winners
 
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Posted: #95
love your system not sure about denver game
 
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Posted: #96
money! money! moneyyyyy! ....moneyyyyy!
 
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Posted: #97
Hey kenyonlv i love your system, i have a real simple one of my own that u use to help me decide who the better team really is. Like yours my system is not designed to beat the spread, i call it an indicator... i use it to spot upsets based on team performances and recent trends.  
The principle behind my simple system is yardage. Yards equals points. More specifically i look at points per yard. I calculate a teams points per yard against the opposing defence yardage allowance. It is very simple and literally takes like 30 seconds to do one game.  (Projecting a final score of 23-19 for Denver)
I never thought of using it for the points total until i decided to check my result for this week against your predictions. Surprisingly all of my numbers match with yours except for one the Denver game. 
I thought that was pretty impressive however the main thing that interest me is how you come up with the top 5 or how you decide which team has a better chance of achieving their under/over. Clearly your top picks perform better than your overall picks but maybe you could shed some light on how you decide who is in the top and who is near the bottom. I am guessing that the its based on the difference between the actual lines and your calculations
Also i am guessing that you take the whole season into consideration when doing your calculations. I do the same but sometimes teams hit a slump or go on a streak at which point i only calculate my numbers based on the previous three games. Also the same thing applies for home away matchups. Some teams in the nfl are road warriors while some know how to bring down the house. That’s why i also consider performances at home and on the road.  Team to consider for home away this week would be Jacksonville/Minnesota, Colts/Chargers, and Giants/cardinals... all projected upsets if the home field  factors in.
Here are my numbers I would love to compare my scores against yours.  Let me know what you think. Is it possible for you to post the scores you have.

note: H/W = home away
        Overall   H/A Last/Three
NE    19.8    16.2    14.4
MIA    18.2    14.6    16.6
           
PHI    19.4    13.9    20.6
BAL    20.4    19.0    25.9
           
HOU    23.5    26.4    24.5
CLE    24.1    25.8    32.7
           
SF    21.4    22.5    18.4
DAL    23.0    31.4    21.3
           
TB    25.0    23.3    19.6
DET    17.6    21.3    16.7
           
MIN    22.1    26.2    22.9
JAC    20.0    22.1    24.0
           
BUF    28.7    28.4    27.0
KC    17.4    21.5    20.4
           
CHI    29.9    25.3    22.4
STL    17.9    19.5    13.6
           
NYJ    24.2    22.3    30.4
TEN    24.8    29.3    21.5
           
OAK    19.3    24.0    14.8
DEN    22.9    23.7    21.7
           
NYG    23.5    23.1    24.0
ARI    19.6    26.9    16.8
           
WAS    20.5    20.5    19.1
SEA    20.7    24.9    17.2
           
CAR    23.9    18.7    24.9
ATL    18.8    22.7    22.1
           
IND    25.5    23.3    27.2
SD    24.8    26.4    19.9

 
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Posted: #98
Aldridge, My system is pretty much yards = points except it puts average teams at 0 and good teams Pos and bad Neg.  You are right on how I get the ratings ... simply the diff between actual lines and predictions.  Yes, I take the whole season into consideration for now.  I actually HAVE posted my scores each week, if the game is an over just add the rating to the line, if an under subtract the rating to get my predicted score.  I get a score for each team and add them, but I don't put much emphasis on the individual scores since we really just care about the total.  If your system matches mine on all but one game I like it!!!  For the Denver game I have Oak 21 Den 24 for Over 43 but not by much. 
 
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Posted: #99
k,
my name says  who i cheer for, but who on the raiders is going to score 21 points.........not the offense-LOL
but no matter what, if its in the top 5-6 im all in
 
 
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Posted: #100
hey kenyonlv,
seems like my system is no good for predicting the total score, i did a quick check of some past results and i would say that its correct about 45% of the time... lol... maybe this week is just a fluke...
ill get a better idea next week.

good luck to everyone this week..
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