Posted:
#76
have u tested your system on NCAA or NBA?
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NFL O/U at 73.2%
Posted:
#78
Mgut ... Thanks!
Alex, I want to try and set it up for NBA O/U's ... the amount of work setting it up is incredible and may not work for NCAA FB. Yep, since I have under, a line move from 50.5 to 49.5 would mean subtract from the rating. Since I already have bets down on the top 12 I would like to see lotsa subtractions. LOL
Here is my updated list after adding MNF stats ... not much difference at all. I will add the 3 missing games when I get the lines from Station casinos.
Chargers Under 50.5 / 7.3
Dolphins Under 42 / 5.6
Falcons Under 42.5 / 5.2
Saints Under 52.5 / 5.1
Seahawks Under 41.5 / 4.4
Jaguars Over 40 / 3.8
Cardinals Under 48.5 / 3.2
Ravens Over 38.5 / 3.1
Steelers Over 35 / 2.5
Lions Over 41 / 2.3
Titans Over 40 / 2.2
Broncos Over 43 / 1.9
Cowboys Under 48 / 0.4
Browns 49.2
Rams 45.8
Chiefs 43.6
Dolphins Under 42 / 5.6
Falcons Under 42.5 / 5.2
Saints Under 52.5 / 5.1
Seahawks Under 41.5 / 4.4
Jaguars Over 40 / 3.8
Cardinals Under 48.5 / 3.2
Ravens Over 38.5 / 3.1
Steelers Over 35 / 2.5
Lions Over 41 / 2.3
Titans Over 40 / 2.2
Broncos Over 43 / 1.9
Cowboys Under 48 / 0.4
Browns 49.2
Rams 45.8
Chiefs 43.6
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Posted:
#80
Here are all 16 games sorted according to my rating. I have bets down on the 12 bold games at the given lines. The lines have changed but adjust as described previously. Four lines have moved in a favorable direction and two in a negative direction. The two bad ones are games in Denver and Pittsburgh where weather is an issue. I'll make corrections for that next week.
Chargers Under 50.5 / 7.3
Dolphins Under 42 / 5.6
Falcons Under 42.5 / 5.2
Saints Under 52.5 / 5.1
Seahawks Under 41.5 / 4.4
Jaguars Over 40 / 3.8
Cardinals Under 48.5 / 3.2
Ravens Over 38.5 / 3.1
Steelers Over 35 / 2.5
Lions Over 41 / 2.3
Rams Over 43.5 / 2.3
Titans Over 40 / 2.2
Broncos Over 43 / 1.9
Cowboys Under 48 / 0.4
Browns Under 49.5 / 0.3
Chiefs Over 43.5 / 0.1
Dolphins Under 42 / 5.6
Falcons Under 42.5 / 5.2
Saints Under 52.5 / 5.1
Seahawks Under 41.5 / 4.4
Jaguars Over 40 / 3.8
Cardinals Under 48.5 / 3.2
Ravens Over 38.5 / 3.1
Steelers Over 35 / 2.5
Lions Over 41 / 2.3
Rams Over 43.5 / 2.3
Titans Over 40 / 2.2
Broncos Over 43 / 1.9
Cowboys Under 48 / 0.4
Browns Under 49.5 / 0.3
Chiefs Over 43.5 / 0.1
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Posted:
#84
Alex, I haven't really had any time to cap this game, I've been working on my NBA system. We saw what happened in NE with all the weather hype ... it turned out to be a non-issue. From what I hear wind is what you really have to watch out for. I put my money on over 35 on Monday, so you know what I like.
Dukie, The system has the score at 37.4, so a line at 34.5 now gives it a 2.9 rating, which makes it not a top 5 play this week. But 2.9 and 3.0 ratings were top 5 plays the last two weeks, so I would say it is "decent" play. Here are my numbers for the game.
Visitor Offense vs Home Defense
Pass Rate Rush Scor
-17 -29 -173 -35
Pass Rate Rush Scor
-17 -29 -173 -35
Home Offense vs Visitor Defense
Pass Rate Rush Scor
-17 8 5 3
Negative #'s are not good ... so as we can see the Bungles are in trouble on all accounts and Big Ben doesn't have positive #'s passing in this game. Looks like the Bungles can't rush with a big -175, so look for them to pass. Either way success or picks it should lead to some points.
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I'm a little confused. How do you calculate your rating number? Also, how do you get the system over/under total?
Posted:
#97
Hey kenyonlv i love your system, i have a real simple one of my own that u use to help me decide who the better team really is. Like yours my system is not designed to beat the spread, i call it an indicator... i use it to spot upsets based on team performances and recent trends.
The principle behind my simple system is yardage. Yards equals points. More specifically i look at points per yard. I calculate a teams points per yard against the opposing defence yardage allowance. It is very simple and literally takes like 30 seconds to do one game. (Projecting a final score of 23-19 for Denver)
I never thought of using it for the points total until i decided to check my result for this week against your predictions. Surprisingly all of my numbers match with yours except for one the Denver game.
I thought that was pretty impressive however the main thing that interest me is how you come up with the top 5 or how you decide which team has a better chance of achieving their under/over. Clearly your top picks perform better than your overall picks but maybe you could shed some light on how you decide who is in the top and who is near the bottom. I am guessing that the its based on the difference between the actual lines and your calculations
Also i am guessing that you take the whole season into consideration when doing your calculations. I do the same but sometimes teams hit a slump or go on a streak at which point i only calculate my numbers based on the previous three games. Also the same thing applies for home away matchups. Some teams in the nfl are road warriors while some know how to bring down the house. That’s why i also consider performances at home and on the road. Team to consider for home away this week would be Jacksonville/Minnesota, Colts/Chargers, and Giants/cardinals... all projected upsets if the home field factors in.
Here are my numbers I would love to compare my scores against yours. Let me know what you think. Is it possible for you to post the scores you have.
note: H/W = home away
Overall H/A Last/Three
NE 19.8 16.2 14.4
MIA 18.2 14.6 16.6
PHI 19.4 13.9 20.6
BAL 20.4 19.0 25.9
HOU 23.5 26.4 24.5
CLE 24.1 25.8 32.7
SF 21.4 22.5 18.4
DAL 23.0 31.4 21.3
TB 25.0 23.3 19.6
DET 17.6 21.3 16.7
MIN 22.1 26.2 22.9
JAC 20.0 22.1 24.0
BUF 28.7 28.4 27.0
KC 17.4 21.5 20.4
CHI 29.9 25.3 22.4
STL 17.9 19.5 13.6
NYJ 24.2 22.3 30.4
TEN 24.8 29.3 21.5
OAK 19.3 24.0 14.8
DEN 22.9 23.7 21.7
NYG 23.5 23.1 24.0
ARI 19.6 26.9 16.8
WAS 20.5 20.5 19.1
SEA 20.7 24.9 17.2
CAR 23.9 18.7 24.9
ATL 18.8 22.7 22.1
IND 25.5 23.3 27.2
SD 24.8 26.4 19.9
The principle behind my simple system is yardage. Yards equals points. More specifically i look at points per yard. I calculate a teams points per yard against the opposing defence yardage allowance. It is very simple and literally takes like 30 seconds to do one game. (Projecting a final score of 23-19 for Denver)
I never thought of using it for the points total until i decided to check my result for this week against your predictions. Surprisingly all of my numbers match with yours except for one the Denver game.
I thought that was pretty impressive however the main thing that interest me is how you come up with the top 5 or how you decide which team has a better chance of achieving their under/over. Clearly your top picks perform better than your overall picks but maybe you could shed some light on how you decide who is in the top and who is near the bottom. I am guessing that the its based on the difference between the actual lines and your calculations
Also i am guessing that you take the whole season into consideration when doing your calculations. I do the same but sometimes teams hit a slump or go on a streak at which point i only calculate my numbers based on the previous three games. Also the same thing applies for home away matchups. Some teams in the nfl are road warriors while some know how to bring down the house. That’s why i also consider performances at home and on the road. Team to consider for home away this week would be Jacksonville/Minnesota, Colts/Chargers, and Giants/cardinals... all projected upsets if the home field factors in.
Here are my numbers I would love to compare my scores against yours. Let me know what you think. Is it possible for you to post the scores you have.
note: H/W = home away
Overall H/A Last/Three
NE 19.8 16.2 14.4
MIA 18.2 14.6 16.6
PHI 19.4 13.9 20.6
BAL 20.4 19.0 25.9
HOU 23.5 26.4 24.5
CLE 24.1 25.8 32.7
SF 21.4 22.5 18.4
DAL 23.0 31.4 21.3
TB 25.0 23.3 19.6
DET 17.6 21.3 16.7
MIN 22.1 26.2 22.9
JAC 20.0 22.1 24.0
BUF 28.7 28.4 27.0
KC 17.4 21.5 20.4
CHI 29.9 25.3 22.4
STL 17.9 19.5 13.6
NYJ 24.2 22.3 30.4
TEN 24.8 29.3 21.5
OAK 19.3 24.0 14.8
DEN 22.9 23.7 21.7
NYG 23.5 23.1 24.0
ARI 19.6 26.9 16.8
WAS 20.5 20.5 19.1
SEA 20.7 24.9 17.2
CAR 23.9 18.7 24.9
ATL 18.8 22.7 22.1
IND 25.5 23.3 27.2
SD 24.8 26.4 19.9
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Posted:
#98
Aldridge, My system is pretty much yards = points except it puts average teams at 0 and good teams Pos and bad Neg. You are right on how I get the ratings ... simply the diff between actual lines and predictions. Yes, I take the whole season into consideration for now. I actually HAVE posted my scores each week, if the game is an over just add the rating to the line, if an under subtract the rating to get my predicted score. I get a score for each team and add them, but I don't put much emphasis on the individual scores since we really just care about the total. If your system matches mine on all but one game I like it!!! For the Denver game I have Oak 21 Den 24 for Over 43 but not by much. 
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