NFL 09' strategic wagering...

Nothing Sports Network?.. why the sidestep of my question?

If you are able to answer then I'm sure a lot more people who read thread, would respect you even that much more.

Thanks - Freaky

Take your intimidation tacticts, and your will to regulate this thread to your behalf,. and start you "own" thread..This thread is not a "picks gallery" or a "pided-piper" syndrome. my objective is documentation of my work, not to impress, or seek rercognition;

this thread is about Matchup_Performance, not sports_Networks Bankroll (which for reasons that are obvious, youve become obsessed with) your questions have been answered, but yet that's not adaquate to your needs.

based on your own commentary, of this thread being "deemed worthless"  your continued participation/attachment would classify you as an idiot..to each his own

this thread speaks for itself, you don't speak for it.. Respect comes from within..I can care less of anything scraped from the surface and formulated into an ass-kissing ritual that you define as respect....good-bye

SN

Wow... that was a lot more writing, time, and anger than it would have took to just answer my question with a simple "1%, 2%, or I use the Kelly Strategy, or an adjusted Kelly Strategy". But it's cool man.

I really don't see the point in taking all the time and effort to "document" something if there was no real validity to it in the end, because how you document is tricking and misleading.

Documenting something that has no validity, can't be truly measure in success (which is the ultimate purpose in betting systems), and is misleading, all the while spending these enormous amounts of time dedicated to this is.... (I'm not going to say anything, or be rude like you are to anyone who questions you). I try to present one side of an argument, take a stance, and argue it logically and truthfully.

Maybe I am an idiot for spending the time to think that your thread is pointless, and spending the time to write all of this and doing the math and everything.

My ultimate point here really was to never attack you, I still don't think I have (all I did was ask a question) but to bring to the forefront a major issue to all those on your tail. I'm just trying to ultimately bring awareness. - Freaky

Well, I hope this is just "good-bye" to the poster whom you addressed, and not "good-bye" to this thread or this forum.

I know you don't seek fame or recognition, but you do have quite a following.  As far as your picks go, you are as good as some and better than most.  You are really talented.

Having said that--and don't take this the wrong way--I, too, was interested in the 38 units on Dallas wager Monday nite.  I placed a small bet on Dallas (Thank You).  I don't really care what the size of your bank roll is in dollars or euros or whatever.  I was curious to know what percentage 38 units was to your bank roll.

If you don't want to say, that's fine with me.   But the first question was a good one, I think; i.e., if Dallas was such a strong bet, why wasn't it a pick before the other losses?  Because if it wasn't that good of a pick before the previous losses, putting 38 units on Dallas looked a little out of the norm for you.  I say that because your wagers seem to be so disciplined, and this almost seemed like an "all in" move (if I can use a poker metaphor) which looks a little more reckless (unless you have the stone cold nutz).

Anyway, I don't want to make you mad or anything.  I hope you continue posting your NFL picks on this thread.

From what I understand, the MNF ML bet was a 'back-up' if you will which was capped before Sunday's games. 

Strong cappers, as proven here, always have a Recovery Process Plan.

The plan this past weekend was to rape the books on Sunday, as always. However, if some unforeseen circumstance were to occur, and losses were suffered, the back-door Recovery Plan was to hit Dallas hard on the Monday Nighter.

Dallas certainly was a strong enough play to warrant a pre-sunday pick, but that wasn't the plan. There were enough "solid" plays as there was, based on Sunday's performance through the Matchup_Performance.

If Sunday's card had produced a "winning day", then I am sure Dallas would still have been given as a play for MNF, but would not have been nearly as large. Leaving Dallas off the Sunday Card, left an option for Recovery without having to wait until next week.



.. this is how I interpreted everything.

Cheers 

That makes sense--kind of.  I don't claim to be good at sports betting.  Maybe that's why I don't understand to good.

Makes sense. 

I really didn't want to see that game lose.  That would have been a disaster.

Congratulations and I hope you best of luck on your next picks SN!

What I find a little strange and discomforting is the fact SN's "recovery process" aka "backup plan" or whatever you want to call it is nothing more than just slamming a big favorite "all in" as someone said before. Not much capping to do when a game is -400 and you're taking the ML when their 8.5/9pt favorites.

I remember when SN was calling myself and others idiots for using chase systems during MLB... Looks like pretty much your "recovery proces" this week was the same "recovery process" as every other degenerate sports gamblers... "POUND THE MONDAY NIGHTER! TO BREAK EVEN"

lol... anyway I respect you mlb strategy but your NFL is not for me... I hope you do well and make everyone a ton of units... would hate to see everyone ruined when one of these "documentation only recovery processes" wipes someones bankroll out.

GMSI

I must say, at the beginning of this, rather than the end.. I know some people see anything as controversy as a personal attack on themselves. I quoted the above phrase, not to respond directly to the original poster, but rather in general to everyone, as they may be having "doubts" for one reason or another. This is intended not for "insult", but rather "education", which no one can ever stop learning about....


NFL is much different than MLB Handicapping. You can't even begin to compare the two contrast in styles.
The MNF big favorite isn't always deservedly so, yet the public always throws their money down big on them, in hopes of salvaging a horrendous Sunday.
This was not the case here.. this is not the general public here. The use of Game Film successfully showed the Cowboys distinct advantage. The diverse running attack which would wear down the Panther defense and open up lanes for the big play in the 2nd Half.
This is not made-up nonsense, it is fact. You can check my own thread as well, and notice how I Live Wagered that game (Carolina 1st Team to Score - despite not having the ball 1st, then to start the 2nd Half, Dallas Next Team to Score - despite not having the ball 1st).
If you can not break down Game Film yourself, then your opinion has no value in this thread on what you "think" about this and that. The Matchup_Performance is based on fact, and not speculation. It is not anyone's responsibility to explain "why" Dallas is a play, or Baltimore, or San Diego, or any other team for that matter. These are not paid for picks.
If someone is tailing these picks, then tail them and leave it at that. Otherwise, break down the film yourself and then present a counter-argument as to why you feel the play is "over-inflated", or "wrong".

I'm sure I do not have access to Game Film as great as what sports_Network can get his hands on, but it is my key component to breaking down matchups as well. Momentum in MLB can carry a team for an entire game, an entire series, even an entire week. In the NFL, momentum usually lasts up to a half of football. A big key win in one week, can easily result in a big letdown the very next. It is all about the Individual Matchups from week-2-week. The worst thing you can do is look at a pre-determined spread created by Vegas and automatically think the 8-10pt favorites are "locks". Look what happened to Green Bay vs. Cincinnati in Week 2. Viewing this game from the outside, Green Bay was the obvious choice without a 2nd thought. Breaking this game down from the inside, the Matchups showed Cincinnati to have a closer edge than the public dared think. I had Cincinnati to cover, as I'm sure sN did. Did you? Or you? What about you over there, did you have Cincinnati?



And leave it at that.. appreciate the free plays, play them, track them, fade them, or whatever. Just don't criticize unless you can bring something "constructive" to the table. Otherwise be prepared to be treated "rudely" as past posters have experienced.

Enough of this now.. onto Week 4 of the NFL !!

Cheers 

GL SN
GL Everyone

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

GL my friend. Loving BAL (again).  Also have MIN -3 for MNF, and a couple of props for the two night games: 2H pts > 1H pts.