NBA quarters chase

POR hits second quarter.

Unbelievably, two buzzer beaters essentially cost us in the first quarters.  I also wanted to make the point that running all the numbers and all things being equal we are starting off slanted at taking the home team.  Only in scenarios where we have strong evidence against the home team would we switch, like where we have a road team that is favored heavily over the home team and the numbers support the play.

ATL:

0.5

0.666667

0.833333

0.933333

0.5

0.366667

0.466667

0.5

 

MIL

0.586207

0.724138

0.931034

1

0.586207

0.413793

0.517241

0.448276

ATL has won the last 3 first qtrs against MIL rather easily, and these numbers were padded when bogut was healthy.  I would likely skip a series like this or maybe take a shot on ATL???

MIL hits in the 1st

ATL in second

OKC 1st and 2nd

We would be 4-0 today with no chases after halftime!

Rizz,  I love this shit!  Playing quarters with a 3 minute window to bet really seperates the hard core guys that look at this as a business and the ones that do this for...... who knows what reason.  I also like that this thread is so positive, and all are trying to add.  I like to play halves and I found if you go to ESPN.com you can register, (it doesn't cost anything) and they will alert you by text at the end of each quarter, and this is a huge help when you playin quaters or halves.  Good luck to all of us next year.

yeah, I think we could have a great nba run next year.  I have picked back up playing a lot of these series for the playoffs as the teams are playing tough at home.  I didn't have to chase past half-time today on any of the games.  There is good value in the overall chase plus all the qtrs are 50% or above which will pay using labby lines also.  Thanks for the heads up on espn.com alerts.  I really find it helpful to watch the games as much as I can.  Some nights you can tell a team just doesn't have it and you are better off to jump ship or switch to the other team (I do this very rarely, but has saved me before).  BOL

rizz  I hope you played played  okl yesterday!!

OKC is my hammer play when they are at home.  They have never let me down .  I am hoping they beat the lakers just so I can get a few more plays on them at home!

Todays matchups

BOS road

0.40625

0.8125

0.9375

0.96875

0.40625

0.625

0.4375

0.375

 

MIA Home

0.516129

0.774194

0.903226

0.935484

0.580645

0.516129

0.35

What are the stats on MIA quarters today?

second group of numbers in the above post.  MIA with a 10% adv in 1st, BOS in 2nd.

Oh got it thanks

so play boston to win one of the four quarters

No i think its play MIA to win 1 of the first 3 quarters

Shat guys I don't know what happened.  I think I forgot to hit submit on my post.  MIA has an adv in 1st qtr and has won 2/3 1st qtrs.  BOS has a higher 1st 2 percentage but taking in the first qtr adv for MIA, winning 2/3, and being the home team I would play MIA.  If it hits you can then start a chase on BOS for 3 qtrs depending how aggressive you want to be.

MIA

Remember the numbers I am posting are from the regular season which is why I initially was going to wait until next year reg season to post this info.  These plays may be more risky with the extra motivation of the playoffs.  I played MIA for the reasons listed above.  I did not start a chase with boston because the line was -2.5 and the heat have won 2/3 last 2nd qtrs.  It may very well hit but I didn't want to risk losing my win.  During the regular season I would be less concerned and would just let my labby lines pick it up over the next few days.  Lakers lost all the qtrs last night even though they had high reg season percentages, so if u started chasing them in that situation you would have lost more than you won with the thunder, although this is very rare.

Rizz, i told you it takes me a while to catch on so we are playing miami in first quarter then celtics rest till they win? and is that ml or spread

Too late  I missed the first 2 quarters  lol my loss maimi was a great play you rock

Revguy, these are all spread plays.  During Reg season I would have played MIA.  The only time I chase on the opposite team is if they have a high percentage for 3/4 qtrs cumulative and I win the 1st qtr bet.  I have not been doing it as much in the playoffs.  Today MIA hit in the first and BOS hit in the second.  So everyone should have at least one, if not two wins from this series.  The thing I like about this is we have made our money from this game and can start looking at the next while those on the entire game have to wait it out.

true do you have anything you are playing in the vulls game

CLE at CHI

CLE on road

0.575758

0.878788

1

1

0.575758

0.636364

0.515152

0.363636

CHI at home

0.322581

0.645161

0.806452

0.935484

0.322581

0.387097

0.548387

0.451613

--based on these numbers CLE would be the play as CLE has strong road numbers and CHI has poor first half numbers.  CLE has won 2/3 first qtrs.  The issue is that CHI won the first 3 qtrs last game. I have a feeling about CLE today, but I am also a cavs fan...  This is a situation where you would actually go against the home team based on the numbers, but based on the last game you may want to consider CHI.  I know I don't want to chase for 4 qtrs....  Once again these are regular season numbers obviously because if the cavs had to go til 4 last game their 3rd qtr cumulative would no longer be 100%

CLE 1st qtr

DAL at SA

DAL road

cumulative

0.606061

0.787879

0.909091

0.969697

by qtr

0.606061

0.363636

0.575758

0.484848

 

SA

0.5

0.84375

0.96875

1

0.5

0.625

0.4375

0.46875

--Dal has an advantage in 1st qtr, but SA is home team and has a cumulative adv for 1st 2 and has won 2/3 1st qtrs.  would play SA in this game

SA-1 1st qtr

Finally a shot at the end of the qtr gets a win instead of a loss!