NBA quarters chase

Unfortunately, I discovered this trend toward the end of basketball season and found that it drops off a bit for the end of the season and playoffs as teams start tanking and lines tighten up.

The basis of the chase is that the odds of a team losing all 4 qtrs in an nba game is less than 3%.  I run this as a 4 game labby and make my plays based on the line or team history.  I have stats for all the teams home and away.  I try to pick the team with the higher percentage of winning the first two quarters to start the chase.  I have tested this up to 1/3 of the opening line.  I am going to include the stats that I have on this and will put a sample of the numbers up for tomorrows nba games as examples as to how we would play this.

2009-2010

Lost all 4 qtrs at home  = 19/940 = 98.0%

13 teams lost as Home Dogs= 13/262  (95.0%), only 6 would likely lose all four with points added secondary to spread 6/252= 97.7 %, all 6 were 0 to 4.5           point dogs

13 teams lost all four from -4.5 to home dogs = 13/510 = 97.4%

n  0 to -4.5    = 3 losses out of 248=== 98.7%

n  Home Dogs= 13 out of 262== 95.0%

n  9 teams lost all 4 as away favorites (96.5%),  only 2 with a spread greater than -5,    2/107= 98.1%

n  0 to +4.5   7 losses out of 158 games (95.6%), same for road favorites 0 to -4.5 (95.6%)= no play either way.

5 teams lost favored by 5 or more=== 5/427 = 98.8%  (highest was -7)

----Home favorites of 5 or more won a quarter by more than 1/3 original spread in 13/427 games = 97.0%

----even to favorites 16/675 = 97.6%

 

 

50/261 Home dogs lost first two quarters = 19.1%

24/261 Home dogs lost first three quarters =  9.2%

540/675 (80%) Home favorites won on of 1^st two quarters by more than 1/3 orig spread

630/675 (93.3%) Home favorites won one of first 3 quarters “””””

 

Home Teams win by quarter (out of 938 games)

              1st                2nd             3rd            4th

win       52.2%          51.2%          53.3%         49.3%

tie        6.0%            5.1%             4.4%           4.8%

lose      41.8%          43.7%         42.3%           45.9%

As you can see by these numbers.  You could play this and make profit as a 2,3, or 4 game chase but each qtr adds value so I generally play these as 4 qtrs with a 4 game labby line.  The 2008 data is very similar.  I will post this to follow, but I want to put some examples up of teams playing this weekend and how we would be able to take advantage of this next season.  The most interesting thing I discovered from the playoffs last year was that the home team was 52-26 in the first qtr.  That is generally what I have been doing for playoffs.  I have noticed these trends have fluctuated as rotation patterns etc have changed for the playoffs.  I am posting this as examples so we can try to hit the ground running next season.

4/24 Matchups

ORL road

cumulative qtrs:

0.484848

0.787879

0.939394

0.970588

1st-4th qtr:

0.484848

0.393939

0.454545

0.424242

Char  Home

cumulative qtrs:

0.633333

0.8

0.966667

1

qtr by qtr:

0.633333

0.566667

0.533333

0.5

Okay, that messed up.  But either way you can see for the 1st qtr is won by CHA 63% vs  48% by ORL on the road.  The cumulative numbers support CHA also by 80 vs 77 for one of first 2, and never losing all 4 qtrs at home this season.  So in this scenario the play would be on CHA

4/24 Matchup #2

LAL Road

Cumulative

0.5

0.7

0.9

0.933333

by qtr

0.5

0.333333

0.433333

0.5

 

OKC Home

0.466667

0.9

1

1

0.466667

0.7

0.766667

0.266667

 

As you can see the thunder are beasts at home, especially in the second and 3rd qtrs.  They have not lost the first 3 qtrs this season.  This is a team I usually hammer when at home!

wow wish i had seen this earlier I like your plays you make this fun hope to win at this also thanks

I figured this out too late in the season unfortunately.  A lot of teams were sacking it in for the year and had a couple of hairy nights.  If you use the labby the losses will be absorbed pretty quickly.  I am mostly just trying to hit certain qtrs in playoffs because there is not enough games left to fully recover.  The first qtr trend for home teams from last year seems to be continuing this year also.

Are these spread or ML?

thanks

I tested this up to a spread of 1/3 of the overall game spread which is usually pretty accurate.  I don't have the lines for each quarter for the season to compare  to, but the majority fall within this range.  Some of the teams I was able to confim up to 1/2 of the original spread such as ORL, CLE, LAL at home, etc.

I want to point out that the examples I posted are as an illustration of how you would use this during the regular season and is only step 1 in capping these games. It does not mean I will be playing on these teams tonight. Just because CHA has won 63% of 1st quarters doesn't necessarily mean anything about ORL.  So I always use covers matchup features to look at the last 3 or 4 games.  Looking at ORL/CHA last few games you can see that ORL has been doing very well at beginning of games against them.  If you were betting on CHA the last 2 games you would have to chase until the 3rd and 4th qtrs respectively......

I guess my point is you always have to look back at the previous games also to see if it is inline with our numbers.

Thanks Rizz

Rizz, saw this thread and thought maybe you'd be interested in another "system", I know some people run the other way when that word is brought up. This is NOT my finding, and the person who introduced it should get ALL credit for his work.

I followed it last 2 mos. of season.Next season, we will put it into play. It's a 6 game NBA halves chase.

Results: 125 - 1

Summary:

1st Play of series ......45 wins

2nd Play of series......45 wins

3rd Play of series.......20 wins

4th Play of series.......9 wins

5th Play of series ......3 wins

6thPlay of series  ......3 wins

Loss .....................1 (5play loss) missed by 1/2 pt. with a push in the Phily series back in Nov.

Yes, you have to have ice in them veins when it gets to a 5 or 6 game. Also needing a bankroll to sustain the wagers in play.

Backtested:

2008-09 ....127 series wins and 1 loss

2007-08....90  series wins and 2 losses

2006-07...108 series wins and 1 loss

2005-06....108 series and 1 loss

2004-05...99 series and 0 loss

2003-04...102 wins and 0 loss

Once again this is NOT my work, but next season with the credit given to the proper person we will post this Bad Dog!

Good luck to you on all your hard work!!!

                          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

looking forward to a successful NBA next year, if we work together we can kick some butt .  I am playing spots in the playoffs including a lot of firts qtrs as they were 52-26 last year playing on the home team.

rizz, does your book allow you to wait to bet the 2nd, 3rd, etc. quarters after the game has started?

kirby,

yes. you have to have a book with inrunning qtrs to do this system.  I should have mentioned that before.

which one does in your case?

two I use do not.

I use sportsbook.com.  It can get a little hairy as the lines are posted in about a 3 min window in between the quarters.  This is the one thing that is a little rough with this system you have to be by your computer while the games are going on to make sure you can get your wagers in.  I guess if you had an "if loses" option at your book you could set it up that way but I don't have that as an option at mine.

We would have gotten our win in qtr #2 for CHA today.  Should've been first but a bogus call given ORL a 4 pt play at the end of the qtr.

If anyone is interested:

PHO road

cumulative:

0.393939

0.69697

0.787879

0.909091

by qtr:

0.393939

0.484848

0.454545

0.484848

POR Home

0.575758

0.787879

0.939394

1

by qtr

0.575758

0.515152

0.515152

0.484848

PHO has won first qtr two out 3, including last game at POR.  Percentages favor POR.

thanks, rizz