Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

Milkman,

Good luck today

System record: 3-0-0

Plays for 4/16:

***Okay guys not sure how many people are following this system but there are a couple of issues with the upcoming plays I want to point out to everyone.  There are two possible plays starting tomorrow.

Series #4 (Game 1) 7:10     TB @ bos -181

Series #5 (Game 1) 10:10    SF @ lad -145

Here are my concerns, with the opening lines this high there is a 20% chance of the home team sweeping the road team (based on last years results).  The TB/BOS series is a four game series which I would have skipped when backtesting as I didn't want to chase for four games.  I feel these teams will hit but we are all individuals and have to make decisions for ourselves.  I am going to offer to skip these series for those interested to the next series which are three games and will likely have better odds.

Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

I am surprised the lines for tomorrow are so high as I feel these teams are more evenly matched.  I want everyone to be as informed as possible and make the plays as they feel best.  The games tomorrow may be higher risk/reward.  Please play what you feel most comfortable with.  I will post the standard and alternate plays over the next 4-6 days.  This was backtested based on closing lines so if these significantly drop overnight the sf at lad would have fit the backtested criteria.  BOL to everyone

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

We won't play against houston until the 20th as they were last swept at home.  So we play against them their next home series.  Hope this makes sense.  The only plays for today would be SF or TB, but please read the above post.

Thanx for the hard work

SF today, if not , Lincecome tom.

System record: 3-0-0

Results for 4/16:

Series #4 (Game 1) 7:10     TB @ bos -181  

Series #5 (Game 1) 10:10    SF @ lad -145  

Here are my concerns, with the opening lines this high there is a 20% chance of the home team sweeping the road team (based on last years results).  The TB/BOS series is a four game series which I would have skipped when backtesting as I didn't want to chase for four games.  I feel these teams will hit but we are all individuals and have to make decisions for ourselves.  I am going to offer to skip these series for those interested to the next series which are three games and will likely have better odds.

Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

I am surprised the lines for tomorrow are so high as I feel these teams are more evenly matched.  I want everyone to be as informed as possible and make the plays as they feel best.  The games tomorrow may be higher risk/reward.  Please play what you feel most comfortable with.  I will post the standard and alternate plays over the next 4-6 days.  This was backtested based on closing lines so if these significantly drop overnight the sf at lad would have fit the backtested criteria.  BOL to everyone

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

System record: 3-0-0

Plays for 4/17:

***Remember these are either/or series play the ones below or the alternates, whichever you feel most comfortable with.  Series 4 pushed gm 1, since there are still 3 games left can be a possible play.

Series #4 (Game 1) 7:10     TB @ bos -130

Series #5 (Game 2) 10:10    SF @ lad -145

OR

Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

  BOL to everyone

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

Guys,

I looked back at last season to determine whether I could find any good filters and/or have any idea how to run 4 game series.  I found that if we skipped the first game and then played it as a 3 game series would not have affected the record.  I then looked at series that started -145 or higher opposing our desired result.  These scenarios contributed to two of the losses.  Skipping these series and going to the next  would have given us 1 loss also (saved us one loss).  Long story short I don't have any definitive filters to give you in these scenarios.  I am going to continue to post the options when these arise and you can play whichever you feel most comfortable with.

Lets go Giants!  Finish this up!

Series Record = 5-0-0

Results for 4/17:

Series #4 (Game 1 wins)  TB @ bos -130

Series #5 (Game 2 wins)  SF @ lad -145

OR

Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

  Hopefully everyone jumped on these.  Board is clear until 4/20.  Have some potential sweeps tomorrow! 

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

Backtested for 2006:

286-12

Seems pretty consistent.  I don't think I am going to go back any further.  Lets hope we stay stay on par with this or can do better!

We are going to have a lot of plays on monday.  Thanks for helping keep track of the sweeps milkman

CHW unbelievably swept by CLE today!  Will have a couple more plays there. 

chw @ NYY 4/30 --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE 4/30

MIL avoids the sweep which is good because they were a play in my other system.

PIT sweeps CIN

cin @ HOU 4/27 fading cin on the road

mil @ PIT  4/20

NYY sweep Tex

tex @ BOS  4/20 -- fading tex on the road

cws @ NYY  4/30

LAA sweep TOR

KC @ tor 4/19 -- fading tor at home

LAA @ det  4/30

A lot of plays coming down today.

Another one, SD sweeps Ariz

sf @ SD 4/19

ariz @ COL 4/26 --fading ariz on the road

I am not sure where you saw 16 at, you may have been looking at a different year, but the record for 2009 would have been 271-10.  I think the highest losses were in 2007 which would have been 15.  Yes, we are basically playing these series to get up one unit, so if we get our win we move on to the next series. You can play the chase however you would like but I personally am using labouchere with three lines.  Let me know if you have any other qustions

Series Record = 5-0-0

Plays for 4/19:

Series #6 (game 1) 7:07        KC +112 @ tor

Series #7 (game 1)  10:05     sf @ SD +124

***Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

***Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

tex @ BOS  (4/20) -- fading tex on the road

mil @ PIT  (4/20)

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

Obviously series #7 conflicts with one of our alternate series.  I think everyone got the win with SF vs LAD but for those that were waiting you will have to decide which way you want to go.