Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

Was looking at last seasons scores trying to find a profitable angle for this year and found this.  I took every team that was either swept in a 3 or 4 game home or road series.  If the team won all three or four I chased them for three games the next time they had a home or away series against a similar team to have the same result.  i.e. if a team won three games in a row.  I would bet them to win again up to three games in the next homestand or road series if they swept or were swept on the road.  Basically betting that a team that swept a team will not get swept themselves in the next series and/or that a team that was swept will not sweep their opponent the next series.  This generates two plays for every sweep.

Record was 122-3 for 2009 just testing the AL

Common Sense Filters used:

Sweep must be 3 or 4 game series against the same team

Chase series must be same as previous sweep(home or road) and be at least a three game series

Do not begin chase in the next series if obviously different than previous.  i.e. a team sweeps the orioles, but their next series is against redsox (in this case would wait until next series to initiate the chase)

17 game three wagers.

Did not continue past second week of september

 

Interested to see if anyone has looked into this before and thoughts?  Thanks

For example, we have our first sweep with SF @ HOU.

Next play would be to play for Hou to lose in their next home stand which starts tomorrow vs. PHI

SF next play would not be until their next road trip against either LAD or SD and you would play them to win.

Playing -1.5 line to improve odds would add 8 losses.  Started working on NL, but will have to finish it tomorrow.  So far 77-3 about half way through.

sounds like a good thing to follow, looking forward to your results

149-7 for NL for 2009 with three of the losses coming from the Brewers!  Obviously with this system you are counting on somewhat consistent play but they were all over the place last year.  Sweep one team then get swept the next... luckily this seems to be pretty rare.

271-10 for 2009 with both leagues.  We should be able to make at least 100-150U on this depending on the juice we lose in the 10 losses.

I will try to back test for 2008 this weekend.

First play would be to fade HOU tonight

RL (game 1)                   -1.5 (game 1)

PHI -156                         PHI even

so tonight would the astros be a play ... they play phili which is a decent team  .. would that count as a filter or no ??

Very nice TR.  Look forward to 2008 results.  Are you going to be posting these throughout the year? thanks

Why is it LAD or SD? Were you just unsure off the top of your head which series comes first?

It should be the dodgers unless for some strange reason the LAD are extreme favorites over SF.  I don't think this would be an issue.  We want to play the next series for at least one win out of three games.  We want reasonable odds to win and don't want a situation where we are betting on a +150 team for three games (may pay better but is increasing our chance of losing the series).  I still need to test this more with the runlines also.  If we are playing a series for a win and the other team is huge favorites I have to sort out if it is better to play the + runline that series or skip it.

Since the astros were swept at home we will be fading them in there next homestand which starts tonight, therefore we play for philly to win one game against HOU.

At this point I will post the plays here.  I am still unsure whether I am going to play them yet until I finish backtesting this at least through 2008.  Will be treading very lightly and only play to win 0.25U per series to start.  As the season goes on we will have a better sense of what tier teams are in and how consistent they are.  Call82 tier system may be helpful in this system too, in that if we have a tier 3 team that sweeps another tier 3 team it is probably not a good idea to play them for a win if their next series is against a tier 1 team and vice versa.  Will post 2008 results when I get them done.  I appreciate any help in keeping track of the sweeps.  I am thinking of trying to keep a post everyday of the ongoing record, ongoing series, and then at the bottom post the series we are waiting for:

Record 0-0-0

Series #1      PHI -150 (game 1)

 

Pending:

SF @ LAD

152-7  for AL in 2008

sf played ATL and won

173-11 for 2008 in NL

152-7 for 2008 in AL

325-18 combined could make us a decent profit as long as the juice is not too high

I will go back and test both years looking at the -1.5 RL for favorites > -150 to see how many losses that would add

What was the breakdown on the 3 game chase?  How many games won on game 1?  How many on game 2, etc..?

AL 2009:  Playing favorites >-150 causes three more losses=

119-6

Game 1 win = 74    (74-51)

Game 2 win = 31    (31-17)

Game 3 win = 17    (17-3)    Total = 122-71 (63.2%)

 

For NL 2009:

Play -1.5 RL for all favorites > -150 adds 5 losses =

144-12

Game 1 wins=  96      (96-60)

Game 2 wins = 37      (37-23)

Game 3 wins = 16     (16-7)       Total all plays= 149-90 (62.3%)

Just wanted to thank you for sharing the info. I took your advice and played Philly tonight. Your research convinced me enough to use Philly as an anchor in a couple of ML parlays. I coupled them with the D-Backs on one parlay and the Red Sox on another (I figured the worst case would be a split - Should've won both but Boston failed to close things out...again!).  Anyway, appreciate you taking the time to share your findings - Hope you continue to post your plays!

Since SF swept on a road series we have to wait until they play on the road again.  I ran this by playing the next series whether home or away and it had more losses both years, so SF was not a play tonight, only PHI (fading HOU who was swept at home)

Record 1-0-0

Series #1      PHI -150, PHI -1.5 (even) wins

No plays for 4-10-10

 

Pending:

SF @ LAD (4/16)

Game 1 wins= 1

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0                                                                     

Thanks for taking a look.  I appreciate any input anyone may have to make it better.  Hopefully we can win some money with this or some variation of it this season.  Just playing the games straight up without the chase may turn us a profit, esp if you use the labouchere system.  BOL on all your plays

For 2008 AL:

Betting on -1.5 line for odds of -150 or higher adds 8 losses =

145-15

Game 1 wins = 90        (90-70, 56%)

Game 2 wins = 37       (37-33, 53%)

Game 3 wins = 26       (26-7, 79%)        total= (153-110, 58%)

 

For NL 2008:

Wagers on -1.5 run line for odds > -150 adds 6 losses=

173-17

Game 1 wins = 100      (100-84, 54%)

Game 2 wins = 56        (56-28, 67%)

Game 3 wins = 17        (17-11, 61%) total = (173-123, 58%)

*These numbers by game are using the moneyline plays.  I included the -1.5 wagers for those that want to be more aggressive or for system plays with high juice.

So wouldnt the record be 2-0 since both the RL and the team hit?  i like the system sounds like a great idea, will keep following

another question why isnt ATL@SF a play? looks like your saying if they sweep or got swept on the road then in order for it to be a play, your next play they would also have to be on the road or vice versa depending on the first series?  is that correct?  wow i confused myself there....i would be interested to know what the results were if you just played the next series regarldess of home away, ill take a look