Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

Started running 2007 for AL tonight, about 40% through AL and at 55-1 so far.  Looked back again at all the losses from 2008-2009 and about half of the losses would be impossible to predict.  Playing a team to win and they are favored all games and lose all three.  The other half of the losses we may get some sense of as we go along.  Things I am seeing is chasing a fluke.  A team that is not very good will sweep a horrible team then you play for a win against a decent team or a really good team somehow gets swept by a bad team.  Playing on road teams to win can be a little more risky also (esp in 2009).  From my other system we can see that teams that start a series with -150 or so odds have a higher chance of a sweep (15-20%) so if we are playing a team for a win and their line for game one is +150 we may be better off to wait until their next series.  Hopefully we can work together and if a play seems to risky we will document it here for the system but skip it as far as placing any money on that particular play.

System record: 2-0-0

Plays for 4/13:

Series #2  (game 2)   1:05   kc @ DET -123

Series #3  (game 1 wins) TB

 

 

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

 

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0 

The damn tigers are trying to blow up both of my systems!  I was just saying to my coworker last week who is also a tigers fan I was surprised they were playing so well against the Royals who usually gives them fits for some reason.  I did not play them today because I had a bad feeling.  This matchup caused a system loss last year. .  Hopefully they pull out a miracle today or get it done tomorrow!

Okay to something more productive than complaining.

AL 2007                     120-7

Playing all teams greater than -150 on -1.5 RL = 118-9

added games = 11 (i.e. playing -150 on -1.5 RL will push series to a game 2 or 3 as opposed to winning game 1 or 2)

 

Game 1 wins = 71          (71-58, 55%)

Game 2 wins =  34         (34-24, 58.6%)

Game 3 wins = 15         (15-9, 62.5%)       120-91, 56.9%

The miracle is delivered!  Unbelievable!  Right after my post bitching about the tigers they drop 6 on KC.  Must be they just wanted to make sure I didn't bet on them today, then they felt it was okay to win.  Sorry about the previous post guys but I was burning hot and didn't want to see my team screw us!

System record: 3-0-0

Results for 4/13:

Series #2  (game 2 wins)  DET -123    

---thank you baseball gods for the huge 7th inning!

 

 

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

 

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

NL 2007

123-8

Game 1 = 86-45,65.6%

Game 2 = 27-18, 60%

Game 3 = 10-8, 55.5%

Combined 243-15

keep an eye on TAMPA BAY, there going for a sweep today

Yeah,

Baltimore is becoming great fade material.... as well as houston!

Tampa sweeps BAL.  BAL is fade  material at this time.  Their are two issues with TB next series.  For one, they play BOS who swept them the last time they played and also it is a four game series... When I was backtesting, I would skip a four game series and go to the next one because I wasn't sure how to handle it.  Teams seem to fight harder to avoid the sweep in the last game and in a four game series we would have already lost.  I am going to post the TB series as BOS or CWS.  I will likely play them against the CWS instead of boston.  Also TB is a tier 2 team in Call 82 system and BOS is tier 1.  The other thing to consider will be the opening line for TB at BOS, if it is less than -130 will consider it a stronger possible play.

System record: 3-0-0

No Plays for 4/14:

 

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

TB @ BOS (4/16) or CWS (4/20)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

-- a little apprehensive about all the road plays as these have been slightly higher risk in the past

im not sold on boston, there not what they used to be, TB is solid...they will win 1 of the 1st 2...who does TB play next series?

Whitesox.  Strangely enough, TB was swept by them also in their last series????  Will have to see how we feel about the play once we can see the line.  I may sit out the first game and then play it as a three game series if TB loses game one???

One thing I wrote a note to look at, but it had slipped my mind:

2009

AL           17 road series = 1 loss,      2 interleague losses

NL           17 road series = 1 loss,      1 interleague loss

2008

AL          13 road series = 0 losses,  0 interleague losses

NL          21 road series = 1 loss,     1 interleague loss

2007

AL          25 road series = 1 loss, 2 interleague losses

NL          8 road series = 0 losses,  0 interleague losses

 

** would recommend not playing IL games as add little value considering added losses.  There have been a consistent number of road series plays last three years with some added risk but likely still profitable overall.  Just wanted to point this out as these plays may increase risk some.

---2008 record based on opening lines (at pinnacle) to see if they are similar to the closing lines used in initially testing this should be up by the end of the night.

Sorry everyone I posted this in the wrong thread.  It was intended for my other system.  I have not found a difference in interleague plays for this system.  Sorry for any confusion

here are a couple series to keep an eye on, all could be sweeps today...

Stl / houst
chi cubs / mil
philly / wash
col / Nym
tex / clev

dam we might not have any sweeps this time around, well guess we got 1 with TB / Balt

Bittersweet for me today milkman. Believe it or not, I was actually on HOU, NYM, and OAK today.  I even parlayed HOU and NYM I am absolutely shocked it hit!

 

so oakland is a play....we fade baltimore because they were swept? Also oakland is a play in your series favorite system as well....correct? 

Oakland is a play in my other system.  We fade baltimore in their next home series which is against NYY on 4/27.  Potential plays for tomorrow are SF at lad, and TB at bos.

on em both already, BOL

System record: 3-0-0

Plays for 4/16:

***Okay guys not sure how many people are following this system but there are a couple of issues with the upcoming plays I want to point out to everyone.  There are two possible plays starting tomorrow.

Series #4 (Game 1) 7:10     TB @ bos -181

Series #5 (Game 1) 10:10    SF @ lad -145

Here are my concerns, with the opening lines this high there is a 20% chance of the home team sweeping the road team (based on last years results).  The TB/BOS series is a four game series which I would have skipped when backtesting as I didn't want to chase for four games.  I feel these teams will hit but we are all individuals and have to make decisions for ourselves.  I am going to offer to skip these series for those interested to the next series which are three games and will likely have better odds.

Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

I am surprised the lines for tomorrow are so high as I feel these teams are more evenly matched.  I want everyone to be as informed as possible and make the plays as they feel best.  The games tomorrow may be higher risk/reward.  Please play what you feel most comfortable with.  I will post the standard and alternate plays over the next 4-6 days.  This was backtested based on closing lines so if these significantly drop overnight the sf at lad would have fit the backtested criteria.  BOL to everyone

 

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

-- a little apprehensive about all the road plays as these have been slightly higher risk in the past

Milkman,

You have any leans on these series.  Not sure how I am going to play them since they are opposite plays in my two systems.  I am surprised these lines are this high which may add some value in playing the dogs???