Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

I would like to say my gf but it is diora baird

diora ? nice

Series Record = 5-0-0

Plays for 4/19:

Series #6 (game 1) 7:07        KC +112 @ tor

Series #7 (game 1)  10:05     sf @ SD +124

 

***Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

***Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

 

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

tex @ BOS  (4/20) -- fading tex on the road

mil @ PIT  (4/20)

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 3

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

Let's hope some dogs are ready to bark today!

BOL today blue chips

rizz....since kc was swept...isnt the play to fade them...theory being they will not sweep the next series? 

kc wasnt swept last series, Toronoto was swept last series, so you fade the jays..

Yes we are fading toronto at home as they were swept by LAA last series.  looks like TB/BOS is going to be a sweep also.  If so we will play on TB against the CWS tomorrow.  The issue arises with TEX/BOS series as we should be fading both teams????  Not sure how we should handle that one???

LOL thats crazy, i guess it would be a no play then or a pick em, lol

LOL thats crazy, i guess it would be a no play then or a pick em, lol

KC started their series with a bang today.... pathetic performance!

I looked back at last year and could not attribute any losses to when we would be fading both teams but it would take me forever to look at each series individually.  I think I will just post the series and if people feel strongly one way or the other they can play it, but I think will have to exclude it as a system play???

Series Record = 6-0-0

Results for 4/19:

Series #6 (game 1) 7:07        KC +112 @ tor  

Series #7 (game 1)  10:05     sf @ SD +124           

 

***Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

***Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

 

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

tex @ BOS  (4/20) -- fading tex on the road

mil @ PIT  (4/20)

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 4

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

Series Record = 6-0-0

Plays for 4/20:

Series #6 (game 2) 7:07        KC +126 @ tor  

Series #8 (game 1) 8:10        TB -108   @ cws

*Series #9 (game 1) 7:10         PHI +161 @ atl

Series #10 (game 1) 8:05       FLA -106 @ hou

Series #11 (game 1) 8:10       cle @ MIN -151

Series #12 (game 1) 7:05       mil @ PIT +117

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -136***

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 4

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

** PHI/ATL series is above -150 which based on last years stats, the favored team by this margin sweeps the series around 20% so play with caution

*** This was supposed to be a system play on BOS fading tex on the road, but BOS was just swept at home so we should be fading them also.  I eliminated this as a system play because we can't really fade both teams.  Play either /or, skip, it or try to double down choice is up to you.  Will post the series but not include it in the system record either way.

Rizz,

Is this a larger amount of pending games on your list relative to your past experience?   I would think there are not normally as many and if they keep up like the Royals in Toronto then the system will have a large amount of units rolling. 

Thanks. 

Deken,

This is the first year trying this, but backtesting for 2009 there were about 280 plays cutting this off after 1st week of sept or so... That equates to about 50 per month.  I am playing to win a very small amount because I want to be extra cautious and still cap the series to see which I feel are the best plays...  I agree if a few series go to game 3 you could have a lot of units on the line so I would advise everyone to be very cautious of the series you select to play and/or play a very small portion of your bankroll.

Not off to a very good start today with KC sucking it up again, TB down, and PIT got hammered!

its a series, not just 1 gm, u always got tomorrow

Are you using different units for different plays?  I thought this kind of defeated the premise of a system.  I saw your thoughts on not taking the Philly's because of the series price but thought for the most part you should stay true to the stats.  Just picking your brain as obviously folks can do whatever they please.

deken,

I basically chase to try to win one unit per series up to three (rarely four) games.  I still played PHI.  I have two systems and sometimes the plays contradict each other.  As long as the series doesn't result in a sweep I can still win both.  I point these series out for people and they can decide whether to play or not based on their own capping.  In my other system, I found that if a series opens with a favorite greater than -150 the favorite sweeps in about 20%.  Even though we still have 80% chance to win, I just want everyone to have as much info as possible.  I play every series to win one unit.  If I have a play like MIN tonight where it is a play in both my systems I play it for 2U or sometimes more as it in theory should be a very strong play.

Series Record = 7-0-0

Results for 4/20:

Series #6 (game 2) 7:07        KC +126 @ tor  

Series #8 (game 1) 8:10        TB -108   @ cws     

*Series #9 (game 1) 7:10         PHI +161 @ atl      

Series #10 (game 1) 8:05       FLA -106 @ hou        

Series #11 (game 1) 8:10       cle @ MIN -151             

Series #12 (game 1) 7:05       mil @ PIT +117           

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -136***

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 4

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

Damn, we got some bad beats tonight.  These bullpens killed us for KC, PHI, and FLA

Series Record = 7-0-0

Plays for 4/21:

Series #6 (game 3) 12:37        KC -102 @ tor  

Series #8 (game 2) 8:10         TB +105   @ cws    

Series #9 (game 2) 7:10         PHI -138 @ atl      

Series #10 (game 2) 8:05       FLA -143 @ hou        

Series #12 (game 2) 7:05       mil @ PIT +123       

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -188***

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 2

Game 3 wins = 0 

I think we may have missed our chance at our win with KC's bullpen blowing that lead last night... Hopefully Grienke shows up big today..

Grienke gives up 2 hits in 7 inn. and the bullpen can't hold it for him.

KC WINNER IN 10 INNINGS