Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

YESSS!  I was in a meeting and just saw KC pulled it out.  In hindsight I am glad I was because I would have been very pissed when I saw they gave up another lead..

Need the Marlins to wake up, seems they have gone to sleep.

PIT definitely seems to have their hands full with MIL too.  come on guys lets turn this thing around!

Very disappointed in Florida tonight, did not help that I chased them at -155.  Pitt in the afternoon tomorrow, I guess I need to stay true to the system but they have really shown nothing.

Nice work by Tampa and Philly.

Damn it.  Didn't even look at the scores.  Last I checked FLA was up by two!!!!  PIT has definitely sucked this series.  I only bet them to break even today.  Fla has blown leads two times in a row...    MIL caused two system losses last year.  They were both from playing on them, but either way a sign of an inconsistent team... They are burning hot right now.  I felt the best about the matchup today which doesn't bode well for tomorrow.. Hopefully they will both get it done.

Series Record = 10-0-0

Results for 4/21:

Series #6 (game 3 wins)        KC -102 @ tor     

Series #8 (game 2 wins)       TB +105  @ cws      

Series #9 (game 2 wins)        PHI -138 @ atl          

Series #10 (game 2) 8:05       FLA -143 @ hou     

Series #12 (game 2) 7:05       mil @ PIT +123     

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -188***

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 1 

Series Record = 10-0-0

Plays for 4/21: 

Series #10 (game 3) 8:05       FLA -121 @ hou    

Series #12 (game 3) 12:35       mil @ PIT +139    

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -142***

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

mil @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 1 

Hard to feel confident rolling into these game 3's.  FLA has let games get away the last 2 by not finishing.  PIT is an absolute mess, losing 15-1 so far in this series and the starting pitcher for tomorrow has an ERA above 14!!!  I chased to break even today on these two series.  With the KC win and the other two game 2 wins, I ended up 4U today.  Don't know how much I want to throw back into these teams.  I am running a three game labby and KC cleared my big number from the third line so I won't be laying much on these plays...  Anybody have any feelings on these plays one way or the other???

Series Record = 10-0-0

Plays for 4/21: 

Series #10 (game 3) 8:05       FLA -121 @ hou    

Series #12 (game 3) 12:35       mil @ PIT +139    

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -142***

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

mil @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 1 

Guys I am going to be away from covers all day tomorrow, so won't be able to see/respond to any comments.  Still not sure what I am going to play, if anything tomorrow.  Feel more confident in FLA obviously, but you never know.   PIT game I was really thinking we might get a win tonight as this was our best pitching matchup of the series... tomorrow may be the worst with a SP with an ERA of 14+, MIL bats on fire, and I believe MIL SP is 7-1 in his last 8 vs. PIT (please check that I read it in another part of the forum)... May play the over, really not sure.  Whatever, everyone decides to do, good luck .  Lets hope we can clear board tomorrow in a good way!

Sorry guys, I am a numbers guy and like to make sure I give you all the info I collect.  I looked back at last year when teams were in the spot to complete the sweep they were 82-66.  Taking home teams in NL who lost 2 or 3 games and were playing to avoid the sweep they were 42-36 at avoiding being swept. 

Now the slightly disturbing part.  PIT was 1-4 in these situations at avoiding the sweep at home.  Obviously it is a different season and a different team now, and I should point out all of these sweeps were after 8/1 so maybe they had given up at that point...so I don't know how much weight it holds with a fresh season.

FLA was 2-4 in similar spot last year as a road team trying to avoid being swept.  Once again a different season and they are playing houston???

Sorry to drop numbers on you all the time, but I just want to make this a thread where we share as much info as we have so we can all make educated plays.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

LA ANGELS as a home underdog of +100 to +125 17-4   the Last 3 Years

Jay,

That is a much more agreeable stat... Hopefully everyone layed of PIT today.  I didn't have a good feel for it last night.  I considered playing the over this morning but ended up laying off and not playing anything.  I tried to look for multiple filters to try to avoid this play, but in almost every scenario it would still have been a go.  Obviously, we want to avoid playing on crappy teams to get a win.  Maybe once we have some more data we can get some filters using teamrankings or not playing a team for a win unless they win 50% or more of their previous 10 games or something.   This system is definitely a work in progress.  I have backtested the piss out it but it doesn't necessarily mean this season will go like the last few would have???  Hopefully, we can turn this around.  Please everyone cap the games and only play what you are comfortable with.  I would feel horrible if someone blindly makes these plays and loses their money.

Gawd, who did PIT use for pitchers this series, the ballboys?

PIT gave up 36 runs on 46 hits in the three games LMAO

Pitt pitchers chucked up 228 pitches today.  And they were actually all professional pitchers.

On the other side of the equation they scored 1 run in the 3 games. If I was the owner of that team I'd be in the locker room flippin' out.

yeah kirby, I don't know what we can say about this....  This was a 5-1 team that beat the dodgers twice and swept cincy.  This was a complete no show in this series.  I don't think any filter can account for this incredibly inconsistent play.  The sp today had an era above 14 and I am guessing it is quite a bit higher now!  That is saying something.

Series Record = 11-1-0

Plays for 4/21: 

Series #10 (game 3) 8:05       FLA -121 @ hou    

Series #12 (game 3) 12:35       mil @ PIT +139    

**optional series:   7:10  tex @ bos -142***      

Pending:

TOR @ tb (4/23)

bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

mil @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

Series Record = 11-1-0

Plays for 4/23: 

Series #13 (game 1) 8:05       bal @ BOS -225, RL

 

Pending:

TOR @ tb (5/3)

bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

Switched the TOR series to at CLE as TOR won 5/6 there last season as opposed to TB where TOR won 1 out of 9.

TOR @ tb should be a go for tonite?

kirby,

I am going to post an optional series for this one.  The odds are really high against toronto.  I don't know how the next two games are going to go as far as the odds but we might be in trouble if all the games are +150 or higher... also toronto was 1-9 last year at TB.  The alternative is to skip this series and take TOR at CLE whom they had a winning record against last year...  I was going to skip it personally but can post it for those interested.  The one thing TOR has going for them is their away ranking on teamrankings is higher than TB at home.  What do you think?

I looked back at last years results for AL.  28 series started with odds higher than 200.  The favored team swept 12 of those series = 43%.  One favored team was swept = 3.5%. Since we are playing against this I don't think we should take on that risk, for a three game chase which is the reason I skipped the TOR at TB series.  I realized that I never really made this clear before and have been keeping it kind of subjective, but when I was backtesting this, I didn't include any series that opened with odds 170 or higher against what we were going to be betting.  I know doing this eliminated a few potential losses.  I have kept this kind of loose and have just been offering alternates for these types of series in the past because I feel confident that as the odds for these opening games are going further against what we are betting the risk of a loss goes up considerably.  Because this series is outside of the 170 criteria I am going to skip it for the system.  If any of you decide to play it, it is higher risk to lose but you would be putting less units on the line if you bet it conservatively.  with these odds you could even start with 1/2U to win one.