MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

p:W means previous Game = Win

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/SportsDataBase/show$20more$20games/sportsdatabase/XmSYe3V-71Q/44AJPplHmw8J
here is a tutorial how to crate a bookmarklet

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

be back for what? his work on this thread was completed last season, there's nothing more to do, you have the sheet, use it. this thread covers everything you need   maybe you ought to go back to the beginning and review what you seek; it's all their...using last seasons sheet is no problem at all, of course you make modifications, and adjustments for the 2014 season, the perimeters stay intact unless you add innovative concepts, then you have a completely different approach, and a similar, but a different sheet to work from...

Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

There is probably somewhere in the update odds macro that needs the year updated to 2014.

I'll have a look when I get a chance

Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

sorry Bart seems like something is wrong with my account. can not accept any request, nor can add friends. anyone have an idea?

Quote Originally Posted by thedavid101:

Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

thedavid101

Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

you can use the code of sdql to define the things you need for picking dogs.

here are the ones: but i can tell, only few of them are working.
these are the websites the system based upon

https://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3600914/1/

divisional underdogs:
sqdl for home dogs:
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=DIV+and+HD+and+p%3AW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

away dogs
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=DIV+and+AD+and+p%3AW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

away dogs show a good roi and profit.

Second criteria:

Low Scoring Underdogs off a Win

This system relies heavily on betting underdogs who won their previous game. Teams who are coming off a win tend to play with more confidence, and there are some handicappers out there who will only bet on a team if they won the previous day.

The key to this system is not simply betting on underdogs who won their previous game, but finding underdogs who won their previous game as an underdog by scoring three runs or less. Teams who can win as an underdog without a strong offensive performance show they don’t need to score a lot of runs to win games. Teams that fall into this situation are normally strong on defense and have a solid bullpen, which is exactly what you are looking for when betting on underdogs to come out on top.

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+

its get even better when puttin lob into the equation

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%20%3C%3D3+and+P%3ALOB%3C%3D13&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

and looking on which site is better: home or away

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns+%3C%3D3+and+P%3ALOB%3C%3D13+and+site&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

part two

third criteria

Underdogs Who Allowed 6 Hits or Less Heading into Final Game of Series

One system that I have learned about over the years is betting on teams who won their previous game allowing six or fewer hits and are listed as an underdog heading into the final game of  series. More times than not a team who struggled offensively in one game are likely to struggle offensively in their next game. While betting this system in any game in a given series is a smart play, it has been proven to be extremely effective in the final game of series.

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+%28o%3Ateam%3Dno%3Ateam%29%3DFalse+and+p%3AW+and+po%3Ahits%3C7&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

and looking at the sides:

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+%28o%3Ateam%3Dno%3Ateam%29%3DFalse+and+p%3AW+and+po%3Ahits%3C7+and+site&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

away dogs should be prefered

The betting public will almost always side with the favorite, but more times than not the value lies in the underdog. This is especially true when handicapping baseball. The extremely long season and countless games without a day off lead to a lot of winning and losing streaks. Years of research have shown that simply betting every favorite will lead to a bigger loss at the end of the season than if you were to bet every underdog. While you will also likely end up in the whole if you were to bet every dog, there are numerous underdog betting systems that can lead to some nice profits. Here is a look at  four baseball betting systems for underdogs that I have found to work.

One thing to keep in mind when betting underdogs is you are less likely to end up with an overall winning record. This is what makes betting on underdogs so popular among baseball bettors. For example, if you bet on 50 underdogs with an average moneyline of +130, you would have to go just 22-28 (44%) to show a profit. Chances are with our underdog systems you are more likely to hit 50% of your bets. A $1000 better who went 25-25 on underdogs who averaged out at +130 would be up $7,500! That is just a 50 game sample size. Just imagine what you could make over the course of a full season.

Low Scoring Underdogs off a Win

This system relies heavily on betting underdogs who won their previous game. Teams who are coming off a win tend to play with more confidence, and there are some handicappers out there who will only bet on a team if they won the previous day.

The key to this system is not simply betting on underdogs who won their previous game, but finding underdogs who won their previous game as an underdog by scoring three runs or less. Teams who can win as an underdog without a strong offensive performance show they don’t need to score a lot of runs to win games. Teams that fall into this situation are normally strong on defense and have a solid bullpen, which is exactly what you are looking for when betting on underdogs to come out on top.

Divisional Underdogs

With this system you are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division. Because teams play so many more games against teams in their division, there is a greater chance that the underdog will win the game than if they were playing a team outside of their division. More times than not the team with the better starting pitcher on paper will be the team favored to win. The reason that you go against these pitchers is the fact that they have likely faced a given team within their division numerous times, and the more opposing players face a pitcher the more likely the hitters will eventually succeed.

Underdogs Who Allowed 6 Hits or Less Heading into Final Game of Series

One system that I have learned about over the years is betting on teams who won their previous game allowing six or fewer hits and are listed as an underdog heading into the final game of  series. More times than not a team who struggled offensively in one game are likely to struggle offensively in their next game. While betting this system in any game in a given series is a smart play, it has been proven to be extremely effective in the final game of series.

Tony Stoffo’s – Rules to Betting Underdogs

With this system you don’t pay attention to whether or not a team won their previous game, but instead look for teams who fall into the guidelines provided below. With this system you will find underdogs who have the greatest value on a given day. For a more in-depth view of this system check out Tony Stoffo’s article at Vegas Insider.

1) The first thing you want to do is pull up the odds for a given day and eliminate any games in which a team is listed at above +150 on the moneyline. More times than not when a team is listed at +150 or higher to win a game, there is a pretty good chance the favorite is going to win the game. By eliminating this option, you will save yourself money by avoiding the temptation of betting on huge dogs.

2) After you have got rid of the monster dogs, you want to eliminate any underdogs who have lost three or more games in a row heading into the game, or any underdog who is facing a favorite that has won three or more in a row. This allows you to avoid getting caught up on an underdog who isn’t playing very well or going up against a favorite who is red hot.

3) The final thing you want to do is eliminate any team that is facing one of the top 20 pitchers. The top pitchers in the game will win more times than not, and avoiding going up against these aces is a smart play. While many websites will rank pitchers, the one that has been of the most value for this system is Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings of USA today.

the first two steps could be done by sqdl, but eliminating the pitchers is only manual.

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+line+%3C150+and+streak+%3E-3+and+o%3Astreak+%3C3+and+site&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

so all you have to do is go yo sqdl mlb page on game day and look up the picks

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Vegas Insider adjusted it's web site a bit.  I was able to pull the odds.

Quote Originally Posted by barrelrider:

Hey guys, obviously tonight is the first game of the year and I am just wondering if anyone will be tracking plays in the way DanRules did last year? Hope someone will step up as last year was quite profitable in the first half of the season. Good Luck to all and lets hit some dogs this first half!