MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

Below is the spreadsheet for some MLB underdog systems - As I have have mentioned in numerous threads - I am HORRIBLE at tacking systems and maintaining threads....it's just not my thing (sorry)

I was wondering if someone wanted to volunteer to track each system using the spreadsheet of course to see if they actually provide a positive ROI.  I tried to make it as easy as possible - press a button and post the plays each day.

Hope someone steps up to the plate

 

MLB Underdog Systems

This spreadsheet automates the MLB underdog systems listed on the the following websites:

https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/

Now the Vegas Insider link just goes into more detail of the last system of the Bet Firms Link

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbRXhKaVRGT2lkSXc/edit?usp=sharing

It takes a good 3-5 minutes to pull all the data needed but it shows what teams it's downloading in the lower left hand corner of excel - so just grab a cup of coffee in the mean time.  You only need to run it once each morning.  In addition, for the <6 hits system - you just have to manually check if the team allowed less than 6 hits in their privious game and enter it in the field.  I didn't automate it because I didn't want to slow it down any more for data that would only be used IF the team happens to be a play for that system.

Features:

·         All plays and data needed for the day are updated upon clicking the “Update” button

·         You can download from the link above:

*Just a reminder that the <6 hits system needs some manual inputs

Why wouldn't the White sox qualify today under the Low Scoring Dog Off win system? They are a dog today and won yesterday scoring 3 runs.

 

I interpret the system as they need to win as a DOG in the last game - I believe they were a favorite in that game with CLE (-119)

Ok that makes sense then.

Not a good start for the system as it went 0-3 yesterday (Pitt, Phil, CWS.

 

YTD record: 0-3

YTD - 3 units

April 16 plays:

SD +154

Philly +137

Pitt +132

ChiSox +143

Also, just to clarify, the 6 hits system is for the last game of a series only?

 

Well according to the spreadsheet yesterday - PIT was the only play if I was not mistaken.  It was a Loss - so I think it's 0-1 if you start tracking from yesterday.

Not sure when the start date should be for these systems - but might as well start tracking now.

Also I think you missed MIA as a play for 4/16 (according to the spreadsheet / rules) - I hate the play but for tracking purposes it's a play according to the rules.

Lastly - yes the 6 hits system is for the last game of a series only - and they need to WIN allowing less than 6 hits in previous game.

Maybe someone who has crazy SQDL skills can back test these - maybe figure out some filters - like don't play a <.500 team, etc or if the dog won the first game of the series, etc. (maybe it could be a good chase system - instead of flat betting)

I don't know - I stink at handicapping - i'm only good at excel

 

I'm not sure if I can track this. I don't see why Minnesota wouldn't qualify today under the MLB Underdog system. They are a dog of less than 150, haven't lost 3 in a row, opponent LAA hasn't won 3 in a row, LAA SP is not in top 20.  

Same with Seattle vs Detroit and AZ vs NYY.

Not sure what I'm missing with these.

Yes you are right, Pitt was the only play according to the spreadsheet. I don't see Mia as a play today on the sheet. I ran the update and Miami is not there. Under which system do you think Miami is a play?

MLB Underdog System

Play a dog under +150 (MIA is +145) that has not lost 3 in a row and is not playing an opp (WAS) that has not won 3 in a row.  Lastly, and is not facing a top 20 pitcher according to Sagarin.  Dan Haren is ranked 108

By the way - I just found a bug in the spreadsheet - I fixed it and have uploaded it to the link - so download it again so you have the lates version with the fix

 

When i ran the update the firsttime Miami showed as +151, so that's why they didn't show as a play. I'll download the new one and run it again. Thanks!!

Why wouldn't the Giants, Twins & Diamondbacks fit the mlb dog system for 4/16?

And Seattle.

Degen??

Looked at it a bit further and I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that your formula for the MLB underdog system may need adjusted a bi t in reference to cell M.  It appears to be elminating any <150 dog that has won their previous game.

correction: should read column M

Scoblen looks to be correct, nice catch (assuming it's correct). That would explain the elimination of those teams as discussed. We'll need to wait for Degen to chime in.

Division underdogs:
https://www.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AWD+and+DIV+and+line%3C180&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

Under 6 hits:
https://www.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AW+and+po%3Ahits%3C%3D6+and+series+game%3Dseries+games%3D3+and+DIV&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

play around with parameters

DanRules / Scoblen - great catches guys - i did find an error in the formula in COL M - thanks a lot

I updated the spreadsheet and uploaded a new version to the link (V4).  Also I added a refresh odds button - it occured to me that the odds may change throughout the day - so a no-play may become a play or a play may become a no play.

After the latest version, I updated the odds and ran the update. For Unders I'll use the best Vegas line I can find at the time. Here we go:

YTD record: 0-1

YTD -1 unit

April 16 plays :

Philly 140 1 unit to win 1.4

SD 155  1 unit to win 1.55

Pitts 130 1 unit to win 1.3

Miami 148 1 unit to win 1.48

Minn 120 1 unit to win 1.2

ChiSox 143  1 unit to win 1.43

AZ 118  1 unit to win 1.18

Tex/Cubs Under 7.5 -115  1.15 units to win 1

You RULE! - DanRules

Hopefully - they are profitable as is or we can see some way to tweak / add filters so we can avoid some dogs so that every day is profitable - Dog systems only need to hit @ 44% (i think) but if we can get it to hit at 50+% by filtering out plays - may be something there. 

I'll update and post every day. I might need someone to step in for a day or two at times since I have some travel planned, but for now, I will track it. Will be fun to see how it does. Thanks for your work on the spreadsheet, simply awesome!

Tuesday results: System went 5-1 with a rain out of Pitts and the Phil/Cin game being suspended. My book counts that as a no bet so I will too.

April 16 plays :

Philly 140 1 unit to win 1.4 suspened no bet

SD 155 1 unit to win 1.55

Pitts 130 1 unit to win 1.3 rain out

Miami 148 1 unit to win 1.48

Minn 120 1 unit to win 1.2

ChiSox 143 1 unit to win 1.43

AZ 118 1 unit to win 1.18

Tex/Cubs Under 7.5 -115 1.15 units to win 1

5-1 Tuesday, +5.66 units

YTD 5-2

Units +4.66

too bad PITT got rained out - they were up 4-2, could have been another win.

 

System plays for 4/17 (all 1 unit at + or even odds):

Balt 101

Pitts 100

ChiSox 123

Philly 126

Miami 140

SF 106

Minn 113

SD 205

SD is definitely a play under the 6 hit allowed system. Won last game allowing 6 hits or less and now a dog in final game of series.

Miami falls into the Division dog as they won last game and face a div opponent as a dog.

Pitt will be a MLB Underdog system play if they stay a dog. Last time I checked still a dog.