Posted:
#751
thank you kindly sir... god I wish I understood the "coding" I guess you could call it to try out some stuff myself
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MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
Posted:
#753
Quote Originally Posted by 518Capper:
thank you kindly sir... god I wish I understood the "coding" I guess you could call it to try out some stuff myself
the coding is self sustained by the attachment to an innovative initiation, this has to be created by your own mind, without this factor, being able to understand the "coding" is irrelevant, with this factor, you then refer to the manual which you will then find comprehensible to coding.
thank you kindly sir... god I wish I understood the "coding" I guess you could call it to try out some stuff myself
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Posted:
#755
A couple off of your idea... far less plays... but maybe an idea of risking the wager a bit when this happens...
Coming off of a 1-0 win...
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%
3C%3D1&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21
59-57 at 139.1 average line for a 19.4% ROI
and...
Coming off a 3-0 win... when both teams combined had less then 13 LOB (kind of says that the score wasn't low because they got lucky... but because hitters were clueless)
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns
%3C%3D3+and+P%3ALOB%3C%3D13&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21
310-326 at 138.9 average line and 15.0% ROI
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Posted:
#757
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
one of many 'daily' results that need to be acknowledged, and looked at throughout the thread, I would highly recommend that a basic 'review' would be in order, and extremely beneficial in understanding the insight, concept, fine tuning done on the way to the conclusion. which, without a meltdown, 'hit the wall' prior to the All Star break, and simply became non-productive, this is where the thread stopped, and was assessed as producing 'outstanding' results the beginning of the season only (April,May,June)
Wednesday 5/1/13 results:
Dog EFF
3-0, +10.08 units
YTD 7-5, +9 units
Pitt 128, 3 units WIN
KC 101, 3 units WIN
SF 107, 3 units WIN
System Plays
8-2, +6.96 units
YTD 58-65, +6.92 units
Pitt 128 WIN
KC 101 WIN
SF 107 WIN
Mia 116 Loss
Clev 124 WIN
Tor 128 Loss
Cubs 107 WIN
Colo 129 WIN
Cincy/STL Under 7.5 -115 WIN
Was/Atl Under 7 -110 WIN
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Posted:
#758
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:
DanRules,
another covers member brought up a very interesting concept that we should probably consider using rather than dog efficiency.
It's called an Underdog Team Efficiency Score. The score ranks the best underdog teams and it is a more accurate rating of team performance as an underdog. The Efficiency Score takes into account profit on turnover for each of the 30 MLB Teams. Suppose Team A and Team B both win 5 units as an underdog over the course of a season. Team A is a better underdog play than Team B if you would have had to wager far fewer times on Team A to win those 5 units.
Overall team records and even team win percentage as an underdog can be very deceiving, and those stats will not show the best underdog teams. For example, the Yankees had the most wins in 2009 (103), but they had a slightly negative 2009 Team Underdog Efficiency Score. They were not a good underdog play in 2009.
Underdog win percentage can also be very deceiving. For example, in 2009, both the Yankees and the White Sox won 48% of the games in which they were underdogs. However the White Sox won 10 more units as an underdog than the Yankees did. If wagering $100, that's $1,000 more in profits. The White Sox had a much better Underdog Efficiency Score despite both teams winning the same percentage of games as an underdog.
I also looked into Dog Efficiency at the end of the year and most teams come close to 50% - so right now it's working since the sample size is small - but I think as the season progresses - that Dog Eff will move towards 50% for all teams.
I will incorporate this Underdog Team Efficiency Score as well as inplement a Favorite Team Efficiency score into the spreadsheet.
The idea would be to find matchups where a Dog with a high score (i.e. is proficient at winning as a dog) plays a Fav with a low score
I have to finish some over / under modeling first - but will also add this concept. May be able to give some additional insight on only picking the DOG plays with the greatest value.
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Posted:
#759
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
some previous posts, food for thought....later
the system is over-powering LOSS based on the value of the RRL dog play:
Last nights winning action
Arizona D'Backs +265 RRL WIN
Philadelphia Phillies +288 RRL WIN
Toronto BlueJays +285 RRL WIN
O/U are showing a WIN consistency of 72%
St Louis | Cubs UNDER-7.5 WIN ( vg capp,playing at Wrigley)
good sheet DG...it's clear, it produces winning 'value'
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Posted:
#762
Quote Originally Posted by thedavid101:
Does this spreadsheet still work for this season? I've tried hitting update but run into an error stating the web query when looking up odds is not returning any results.
touch base with DG the innovator of the sheet, he's the only person who can answer, and fulfil what you seek. spreadsheets is what he does, his work is committed to excellence.
Does this spreadsheet still work for this season? I've tried hitting update but run into an error stating the web query when looking up odds is not returning any results.
Anyone know how to debug the error to make this spreadsheet work for this season?
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Posted:
#763
Well I shot him a friend request so I can send him a message. Hopefully he responds.
I have a coding background but couldn't figure out how to debug the error after spending over an hour troubleshooting it. The macro seems to be passing the correct URL to pull down odds from VegasInsider.com. However, the error states the web query is not returning any results from the Odds refresh method.
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Posted:
#770
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:
Any DegenGamble sightings? Wonder if he'll be back...
be back for what? his work on this thread was completed last season, there's nothing more to do, you have the sheet, use it. this thread covers everything you need maybe you ought to go back to the beginning and review what you seek; it's all their...using last seasons sheet is no problem at all, of course you make modifications, and adjustments for the 2014 season, the perimeters stay intact unless you add innovative concepts, then you have a completely different approach, and a similar, but a different sheet to work from...
Any DegenGamble sightings? Wonder if he'll be back...
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Posted:
#772
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
be back for what? his work on this thread was completed last season, there's nothing more to do, you have the sheet, use it. this thread covers everything you need maybe you ought to go back to the beginning and review what you seek; it's all their...using last seasons sheet is no problem at all, of course you make modifications, and adjustments for the 2014 season, the perimeters stay intact unless you add innovative concepts, then you have a completely different approach, and a similar, but a different sheet to work from...
be back for what? his work on this thread was completed last season, there's nothing more to do, you have the sheet, use it. this thread covers everything you need maybe you ought to go back to the beginning and review what you seek; it's all their...using last seasons sheet is no problem at all, of course you make modifications, and adjustments for the 2014 season, the perimeters stay intact unless you add innovative concepts, then you have a completely different approach, and a similar, but a different sheet to work from...
I was referring to the forum in general, and if he had anything new to bring to the table for the upcoming season, that's all.
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Posted:
#774
you can use the code of sdql to define the things you need for picking dogs.
here are the ones: but i can tell, only few of them are working.
these are the websites the system based upon
https://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3600914/1/
divisional underdogs:
sqdl for home dogs:
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=DIV+and+HD+and+p%3AW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
away dogs
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=DIV+and+AD+and+p%3AW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
away dogs show a good roi and profit.
Second criteria:
here are the ones: but i can tell, only few of them are working.
these are the websites the system based upon
https://s1.zetaboards.com/MisterMJ_Sports/topic/3600914/1/
divisional underdogs:
sqdl for home dogs:
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=DIV+and+HD+and+p%3AW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
away dogs
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=DIV+and+AD+and+p%3AW&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
away dogs show a good roi and profit.
Second criteria:
Low Scoring Underdogs off a Win
This system relies heavily on betting underdogs who won their previous game. Teams who are coming off a win tend to play with more confidence, and there are some handicappers out there who will only bet on a team if they won the previous day.
The key to this system is not simply betting on underdogs who won their previous game, but finding underdogs who won their previous game as an underdog by scoring three runs or less. Teams who can win as an underdog without a strong offensive performance show they don’t need to score a lot of runs to win games. Teams that fall into this situation are normally strong on defense and have a solid bullpen, which is exactly what you are looking for when betting on underdogs to come out on top.
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+
its get even better when puttin lob into the equation
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%20%3C%3D3+and+P%3ALOB%3C%3D13&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
and looking on which site is better: home or away
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns+%3C%3D3+and+P%3ALOB%3C%3D13+and+site&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
second part will follow0
Posted:
#775
part two
third criteria
Underdogs Who Allowed 6 Hits or Less Heading into Final Game of Series
One system that I have learned about over the years is betting on teams who won their previous game allowing six or fewer hits and are listed as an underdog heading into the final game of series. More times than not a team who struggled offensively in one game are likely to struggle offensively in their next game. While betting this system in any game in a given series is a smart play, it has been proven to be extremely effective in the final game of series.
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+%28o%3Ateam%3Dno%3Ateam%29%3DFalse+and+p%3AW+and+po%3Ahits%3C7&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
and looking at the sides:
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+%28o%3Ateam%3Dno%3Ateam%29%3DFalse+and+p%3AW+and+po%3Ahits%3C7+and+site&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
away dogs should be prefered
The betting public will almost always side with the favorite, but more times than not the value lies in the underdog. This is especially true when handicapping baseball. The extremely long season and countless games without a day off lead to a lot of winning and losing streaks. Years of research have shown that simply betting every favorite will lead to a bigger loss at the end of the season than if you were to bet every underdog. While you will also likely end up in the whole if you were to bet every dog, there are numerous underdog betting systems that can lead to some nice profits. Here is a look at four baseball betting systems for underdogs that I have found to work.
One thing to keep in mind when betting underdogs is you are less likely to end up with an overall winning record. This is what makes betting on underdogs so popular among baseball bettors. For example, if you bet on 50 underdogs with an average moneyline of +130, you would have to go just 22-28 (44%) to show a profit. Chances are with our underdog systems you are more likely to hit 50% of your bets. A $1000 better who went 25-25 on underdogs who averaged out at +130 would be up $7,500! That is just a 50 game sample size. Just imagine what you could make over the course of a full season.
Low Scoring Underdogs off a Win
This system relies heavily on betting underdogs who won their previous game. Teams who are coming off a win tend to play with more confidence, and there are some handicappers out there who will only bet on a team if they won the previous day.
The key to this system is not simply betting on underdogs who won their previous game, but finding underdogs who won their previous game as an underdog by scoring three runs or less. Teams who can win as an underdog without a strong offensive performance show they don’t need to score a lot of runs to win games. Teams that fall into this situation are normally strong on defense and have a solid bullpen, which is exactly what you are looking for when betting on underdogs to come out on top.
Divisional Underdogs
With this system you are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division. Because teams play so many more games against teams in their division, there is a greater chance that the underdog will win the game than if they were playing a team outside of their division. More times than not the team with the better starting pitcher on paper will be the team favored to win. The reason that you go against these pitchers is the fact that they have likely faced a given team within their division numerous times, and the more opposing players face a pitcher the more likely the hitters will eventually succeed.
Underdogs Who Allowed 6 Hits or Less Heading into Final Game of Series
One system that I have learned about over the years is betting on teams who won their previous game allowing six or fewer hits and are listed as an underdog heading into the final game of series. More times than not a team who struggled offensively in one game are likely to struggle offensively in their next game. While betting this system in any game in a given series is a smart play, it has been proven to be extremely effective in the final game of series.
Tony Stoffo’s – Rules to Betting Underdogs
With this system you don’t pay attention to whether or not a team won their previous game, but instead look for teams who fall into the guidelines provided below. With this system you will find underdogs who have the greatest value on a given day. For a more in-depth view of this system check out Tony Stoffo’s article at https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/.
1) The first thing you want to do is pull up the odds for a given day and eliminate any games in which a team is listed at above +150 on the moneyline. More times than not when a team is listed at +150 or higher to win a game, there is a pretty good chance the favorite is going to win the game. By eliminating this option, you will save yourself money by avoiding the temptation of betting on huge dogs.
2) After you have got rid of the monster dogs, you want to eliminate any underdogs who have lost three or more games in a row heading into the game, or any underdog who is facing a favorite that has won three or more in a row. This allows you to avoid getting caught up on an underdog who isn’t playing very well or going up against a favorite who is red hot.
3) The final thing you want to do is eliminate any team that is facing one of the top 20 pitchers. The top pitchers in the game will win more times than not, and avoiding going up against these aces is a smart play. While many websites will rank pitchers, the one that has been of the most value for this system is https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm of USA today.
the first two steps could be done by sqdl, but eliminating the pitchers is only manual.
https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+line+%3C150+and+streak+%3E-3+and+o%3Astreak+%3C3+and+site&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
so all you have to do is go yo sqdl mlb page on game day and look up the picks
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