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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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    sports_Network
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    sports_Network
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    Posted: Feb. 24, 2014 - 9:30 AM ET #726

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    i believe it is safer to track selected home dogs and home favs. they generated more value last year. what kind of tweaks do you suggest?
    home dogs are the key element....pursue this avenue, it has no boundries..
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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    i believe it is safer to track selected home dogs and home favs. they generated more value last year. what kind of tweaks do you suggest?
    home dogs are the key element....pursue this avenue, it has no boundries..
     
    JEFFTHEHAT
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    Posted: Feb. 24, 2014 - 10:12 AM ET #727

    Buster, you ask for it. You post false info Im going to shred you! 
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    Buster, you ask for it. You post false info Im going to shred you! 
     
    JEFFTHEHAT
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    Posted: Feb. 24, 2014 - 11:06 AM ET #728

    Buster, how many years did the Royals lose 100 games with 17 game losing streak? Just one in 2005 and it was a 19 game losing streak. July 28- August 19. They lost 100 games 4 times since becoming the the KC Royals in 1969. 

    Have a great day! 
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    Buster, how many years did the Royals lose 100 games with 17 game losing streak? Just one in 2005 and it was a 19 game losing streak. July 28- August 19. They lost 100 games 4 times since becoming the the KC Royals in 1969. 

    Have a great day! 
     
    JEFFTHEHAT
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    Posted: Feb. 24, 2014 - 4:24 PM ET #729

    Here is some useless info about home dogs:

    Average price for a winning home dog +119.7
    Home dogs won 337 - 401 lost
    Units lost betting every home dog last year -30.35
    Ony one month had positive units that was June +21.25 units

    This dose of useless info provided by

    Jeff the Hat 
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    Here is some useless info about home dogs:

    Average price for a winning home dog +119.7
    Home dogs won 337 - 401 lost
    Units lost betting every home dog last year -30.35
    Ony one month had positive units that was June +21.25 units

    This dose of useless info provided by

    Jeff the Hat 
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Feb. 24, 2014 - 8:25 PM ET #730

    The main goal here is not to bet on dogs blindly. Choosing them fitting to the criteria esp before the all star break generated profit.
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    The main goal here is not to bet on dogs blindly. Choosing them fitting to the criteria esp before the all star break generated profit.
     
    JEFFTHEHAT
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    Posted: Feb. 24, 2014 - 8:50 PM ET #731

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    The main goal here is not to bet on dogs blindly. Choosing them fitting to the criteria esp before the all star break generated profit.

    While I see why people would want to play dogs I think since return isn't that high especially home dogs @+119.7 I think energies should be focused on RL favorites or even smaller fav's. Only about 28-30% of games are home dogs. If you only play +140 HD to try and get better return it hit 53-108 last year for a loss of 25.34 units. Removing those from the equation would make your return even less attractive probably less than +110. Just thinking out loud. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    The main goal here is not to bet on dogs blindly. Choosing them fitting to the criteria esp before the all star break generated profit.

    While I see why people would want to play dogs I think since return isn't that high especially home dogs @+119.7 I think energies should be focused on RL favorites or even smaller fav's. Only about 28-30% of games are home dogs. If you only play +140 HD to try and get better return it hit 53-108 last year for a loss of 25.34 units. Removing those from the equation would make your return even less attractive probably less than +110. Just thinking out loud. 
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 4:53 AM ET #732

    will you be posting from the 'penalty box'
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    will you be posting from the 'penalty box'
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2014 - 10:40 PM ET #733

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g
    i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work
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    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g
    i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 6:31 AM ET #734

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g
    i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work
    good commentary, and yes, the stats speak for theirselve. "low scoring scoring (meaning value) dogs seem to work" however, it doesn't stop their, you take the dog to the next level, the (reverse) RL which as you are more than aware of, is the highest valued wager when betting MLB, (you've already capped a dog win, next step is to activate it on the [-1.5] RRL, much like taking an over valued favorite -165 plus, on the [-1.5] RL bringing value to the favorite. Your 'dog' research should lean in the direction of the (reverse) RL:

    take note, a stat easily attainable; "What % of 'dogs' won by 2 runs or more in the 2013 MLB season" attach a formulated system to these results, connect them to the top 4 teams, and you have a foundation by which to work from (spreadsheet) for the upcoming season. may you prosper always, have fun, thats what handicapping sports is all about; making money, and having fun on the way to your quest.....later

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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g
    i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work
    good commentary, and yes, the stats speak for theirselve. "low scoring scoring (meaning value) dogs seem to work" however, it doesn't stop their, you take the dog to the next level, the (reverse) RL which as you are more than aware of, is the highest valued wager when betting MLB, (you've already capped a dog win, next step is to activate it on the [-1.5] RRL, much like taking an over valued favorite -165 plus, on the [-1.5] RL bringing value to the favorite. Your 'dog' research should lean in the direction of the (reverse) RL:

    take note, a stat easily attainable; "What % of 'dogs' won by 2 runs or more in the 2013 MLB season" attach a formulated system to these results, connect them to the top 4 teams, and you have a foundation by which to work from (spreadsheet) for the upcoming season. may you prosper always, have fun, thats what handicapping sports is all about; making money, and having fun on the way to your quest.....later

     
    Goodsy
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 9:10 AM ET #735

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g

    i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work

    It doesn't seem to be displaying for me.. I do log onto there and keep an eye on the threads.. but on this occasion I get the following message:

    "The requested topic cannot be found. It might have been deleted"

    Is it still showing for you ? Im keen to have a peruse.. cheers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g

    i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work

    It doesn't seem to be displaying for me.. I do log onto there and keep an eye on the threads.. but on this occasion I get the following message:

    "The requested topic cannot be found. It might have been deleted"

    Is it still showing for you ? Im keen to have a peruse.. cheers.
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 9:28 AM ET #736

    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

    for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
    SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

    1240 games historically.
    394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
    That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15
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    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

    for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
    SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

    1240 games historically.
    394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
    That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 9:28 AM ET #737

    the other underdog systems are not working on a regular basis.
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    the other underdog systems are not working on a regular basis.
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 9:57 AM ET #738

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

    for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
    SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

    1240 games historically.
    394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
    That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15
    well done, your effort is appreciated by many...
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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

    for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
    SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

    1240 games historically.
    394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
    That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15
    well done, your effort is appreciated by many...
     
    Goodsy
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 10:02 AM ET #739

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

    for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
    SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

    1240 games historically.
    394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
    That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15

    Holy dooly… now that's some info that's worth putting into a labby system.. I love the average line.

    When we say.. low scoring dog.. what is the definition ?

    Thanks so much for this info.. out comes the notepad and pen..
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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

    for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
    SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

    1240 games historically.
    394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
    That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15

    Holy dooly… now that's some info that's worth putting into a labby system.. I love the average line.

    When we say.. low scoring dog.. what is the definition ?

    Thanks so much for this info.. out comes the notepad and pen..
     
    Goodsy
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 10:03 AM ET #740

    Also that is a large sample of games too.. not like it;s a 50 game sample or anything.
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    Also that is a large sample of games too.. not like it;s a 50 game sample or anything.
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 10:30 AM ET #741

    low scoring dog means that this team has won it's previous game with scoring 3 runs or less. coming from a solid defensive effort must be a big boost when going into the next game.
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    low scoring dog means that this team has won it's previous game with scoring 3 runs or less. coming from a solid defensive effort must be a big boost when going into the next game.
     
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 10:35 AM ET #742

    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    low scoring dog means that this team has won it's previous game with scoring 3 runs or less. coming from a solid defensive effort must be a big boost when going into the next game.

     thanks for this clarification!
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    Quote Originally Posted by orhane:

    low scoring dog means that this team has won it's previous game with scoring 3 runs or less. coming from a solid defensive effort must be a big boost when going into the next game.

     thanks for this clarification!
     
    Goodsy
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 10:36 AM ET #743

    Saweet.. thanks again.

    Just to clarify.. the previous game can be a win being either favourite or a dog ? 

    I had a look back at post 1 to 10 but couldn't find the info I was after regarding low scoring dogs.. probably my oversight though.
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    Saweet.. thanks again.

    Just to clarify.. the previous game can be a win being either favourite or a dog ? 

    I had a look back at post 1 to 10 but couldn't find the info I was after regarding low scoring dogs.. probably my oversight though.
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 12:02 PM ET #744

    No it must be an underdog win. Look at the links mentioned in the spreadsheet on google docs.
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    No it must be an underdog win. Look at the links mentioned in the spreadsheet on google docs.
     
    518Capper
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 1:56 PM ET #745

    orhane over how many years are those 1240 games spaced???


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    orhane over how many years are those 1240 games spaced???


     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 2:08 PM ET #746

    10 years. 24 games per season on average. I hinkt this is legit enough to take it proven.
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    10 years. 24 games per season on average. I hinkt this is legit enough to take it proven.
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 2:12 PM ET #747

    124 not 24
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    124 not 24
     
    518Capper
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 2:21 PM ET #748

    yea... 10 years is definitely a very good sample size without doubt!!!

    I have no idea what kind of time it would take... and if it is a lot, don't worry about it, but by any chance do you have a year by year breakdown, If so i'd love to see it...

    Thanks in advance... Brian
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    yea... 10 years is definitely a very good sample size without doubt!!!

    I have no idea what kind of time it would take... and if it is a lot, don't worry about it, but by any chance do you have a year by year breakdown, If so i'd love to see it...

    Thanks in advance... Brian
     
    518Capper
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 2:33 PM ET #749

    also if my understanding is correct, this is winning as a dog while scoring less than 3 runs, and then being a dog the next game?
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    also if my understanding is correct, this is winning as a dog while scoring less than 3 runs, and then being a dog the next game?
     
     
    orhane
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2014 - 2:43 PM ET #750

    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3+and+season&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
    year by year breakdown.
    you are correct
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    https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3+and+season&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
    year by year breakdown.
    you are correct
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