MLB UNDER System

One potential play showing up for tomorrow (5/5) ...

LAD at SD (unfiltered system: 5ROI)

Yeah, it's tricky when playing a system like this that's based on closing odds. If the odds are showing an early 8.0U -110, it looks good on the ROI table, so I want to play it. Then, 15 minutes before game time, the odds go to 7.5U +105, and that shows negative ROI. Those ROI values are based on closing lines, and not the line you play before game time. So, I can get a better total than the close, but the closing play doesn't look as good based on historical stats.

Like always, handicapping can help to predict the direction of the line, so you can grab a better play early in the day, and still hopefully, get a closing line that shows good ROI statistically for the system.

Plays for 5/5

Ugly finish in Dodger game it was 2-1 in the 7th

Any games tonight?

Plays for 5/6

Plays for 5/6

Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120
NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110

Sticking with my standard flat bet 1 unit for the rest of May, but if the home favorites show higher ROI the rest of this month, I'll switch to 2 units on those plays starting in June.

Results for 5/6/2017

HOU/LAA 7.5U -120          WIN (+1.0u)
NYY/CHC 7.5U -110          LOSS (-1.10u)



Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)

April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-5-0 (+1.50u)


Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)

Possible UNDER Plays for 5/7/2017


Filtered and Unfiltered

SF/CIN:  Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play.


Unfiltered Only

HOU/LAA:  Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play.
MIL/PIT:  Current total is 50/50 split between 8.0 and 8.5. Needs 8.0 to be a play.


Going to be away from computer this morning, so won't be able to update before game time. If someone sees these fall into place,feel free to update here.

Looks like I missed the NYY/CHC play today. Lester's 3.67 ERA fit the parameters after the total dropped from 7.5 to 7.0.

I guess it was a lucky miss. The Cubs just scored three in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game 4-4.

I played all 3 at 8.5. Good day. 

Potential Plays for 5/8/2017

Early Games

Unfiltered

SF/NYM:  Play 7.0U -105

NYY/CIN:  No play. Total holding at 8.5. Need 8.0.
STL/MIA:  No play. Total holding at 8.0. Need 7.5 or less (Martinez ERA is 3.75).


Will update about late games soon.

Late Games


TEX/SD: NO PLAY.
     Total is stuck at 7.5, and we need 7.0 for a play (Cahill ERA 3.60).

LAA/OAK: NO PLAY.
     Total is stuck at 8.0, and we need 7.5 for a play (Graveman ERA 3.95).

Results for 5/8/2017

SF/NYM:  7.0U -105           PUSH


Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)

April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-5-3 (+1.50u)


Filtered System (13% ROI)

May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)

5/9 - no plays on the early afternoon games.

5/9 - Night Games

5/9 - All Plays

Unfiltered System

SF/NYM: 7.0U -110
     Much better line now, but already locked in the -110 earlier.

LAA/OAK: 8.0U +100

Results for 5/9/2017

SF/NYM: 7.0U -110           PUSH

LAA/OAK: 8.0U +100          LOSS (-1.0u)


Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)

April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-6-4 (+0.50u)


Filtered System (13% ROI)

May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)

Plays for 5/10window.post_1494431527373_2 = function(win,msg){ win.postMessage(msg,"*"); }window.post_1494431545438_11 = function(win,msg){ win.postMessage(msg,"*"); }

Passing on SF/NYM. Totals split between 8.0 and 8.5.

Plays for 5/10 - FINAL

Unfiltered System

CLE/TOR: 8.0U -115
     Current total is 7.5, which is still valid.

PIT/LAD: 7.5U -105