MLB UNDER System

I was looking at MLB Totals last week, and thought about the following situation that may generate more bets on the OVER, and possibly give more value to the UNDER:

     Game Total is 8.
     Pitcher 1 has an ERA of 4.25.
     Pitcher 2 has an ERA of 4.50.

     John Q. Bettor decides to bet the OVER because, hey, 4.25 + 4.50 > 8.
     Makes perfect sense. If both pitchers have an ERA that's over half the total, then bet OVER.


So, I used totals and pitcher ERA to research via SDQL. The following simple query produced an immediate 5% ROI when betting the UNDER.

     6.5<=total<=8 and STDSERA >= total/2 and o:STDSERA >= total/2

          The sweet spot on Total was from 6.5 to 8.0.
          Both pitchers had an ERA of at least half the total.


After some additional filtering on the ERA, and adding an extra filter for WHIP, I have the following system for betting the UNDER:

    Bet the UNDER if ...
               Total is 6.5 to 8.0
               Both pitchers have an ERA of at least half the Total, but no higher than 5.25
               Both pitchers have a WHIP from 1.25 to 1.55

The pitcher ERA and WHIP numbers look bad enough to feel confident in the OVER, but the game results consistently produce UNDER.


Results from last 10 seasons:
     ROI:  13.0%
     PROFIT:  145 units


Games     W-L-P (%under)          Avg Total     $ Under     Season
   10         6-4-0 (60.0%)                  7.7          +$200         2007
   58     32-22-4 (0.31, 59.3%)          7.7          +$760         2008
   56     26-28-2 (0.96, 48.1%)          7.7           -$430         2009
   66     42-22-2 (-0.38, 65.6%)         7.4       +$1,810         2010
 158     82-68-8 (0.08, 54.7%)          7.4          +$750         2011
 144     84-50-10 (-0.62, 62.7%)       7.5       +$2,910         2012
   88     50-32-6 (-0.22, 61.0%)        7.6       +$1,630          2013
 180     104-70-6 (-0.34, 59.8%)       7.4       +$2,630         2014
 168     96-60-12 (0.40, 61.5%)        7.4       +$3,000         2015
   82     48-32-2 (-0.20, 60.0%)         7.7       +$1,264         2016

Note: The SDQL database didn't list O/U lines, so I can't confirm the accuracy of the results.


First play is typically the last week in April or first week in May. Check back later if you want to follow along!

Interesting, I will follow this closely. BOL!

Awesome!

The same question here too about the variance: How much did each season go negative before coming up with a profit in the end of the season?

I should rephrase. Late April to early May is the first time that a game typically meets the system requirements. I plan to track the entire season to see how my results compare to the SDQL database's results for 2017.

The past results definitely support your thoughts ... time is needed to allow the pitchers to face varying competition. Best ROI with more plays is from July-October, although the April results are quite encouraging for such a small sample.

Games        W-L-P (%under)       Avg Total     $Under          Month
24           4-18-2 (-0.29, 81.8%)         7.5       +$1,380             4
96         40-56-0 (-0.06, 58.3%)         7.4       +$1,170             5
168      72-86-10 (0.45, 54.4%)         7.4          +$710             6
224     86-126-12 (-0.15, 59.4%)       7.5        +$3,234             7
224     74-138-12 (-0.27, 65.1%)       7.5        +$5,660            8
252     104-132-16 (0.06, 55.9%)      7.5        +$1,850            9
22         8-14-0 (-1.05, 63.6%)          7.5          +$520           10

Great, forgot to convert the W-L-P from the over to the under.  Got the percentages correct though.  Below is the correct W-L-P for the under. The SDQL results always come back based on picking the over.

Games        W-L-P (%under)       Avg Total     $Under          Month
24                 18-4-2 (81.8%)         7.5       +$1,380               4
96               56-40-0 (58.3%)         7.4       +$1,170               5
168            86-72-10 (54.4%)         7.4          +$710              6
224          126-86-12 (59.4%)         7.5        +$3,234              7
224          138-74-12 (65.1%)         7.5        +$5,660              8
252        132-104-16 (55.9%)         7.5        +$1,850               9
22              14-8-0 (63.6%)           7.5          +$520               10

Well, I just noticed that my original query did not pick a side (home/away, favorite/dog). For the UNDER, it's not needed, but if a side is not specified, SDQL returns each game twice. So, all those numbers in my original post are doubled.

Should be this:


Results from last 10 seasons:
     ROI:  13.0%
     PROFIT:  72.6 units


Games  W-L-P (%under)      Avg Total     $ Under     Season
     5         3-2-0 (60.0%)         7.7            +$100         2007
   29     16-11-2 (59.3%)          7.7            +$380         2008
   28     13-14-1 (48.1%)          7.7             -$215         2009
   33     21-11-1 (65.6%)          7.4            +$905         2010
   79     41-34-4 (54.7%)         7.4            +$375         2011
   72     42-25-5 (62.7%)         7.5         +$1,455         2012
   44     25-16-3 (61.0%)         7.6           +$815          2013
   90     52-35-3 (59.8%)         7.4         +$1,315         2014
   84     48-30-6 (61.5%)         7.4         +$1,500         2015
   41     24-16-1 (60.0%)         7.7           +$632         2016

Assuming each season was played start to finish ...

Season          Low Point          High Point          End Of Season
2007                  -1.00u               +1.00u                  +1.00u
2008                  -2.30u               +5.90u                  +3.80u
2009                  -3.15u               +3.40u                   -2.15u
2010                  -1.25u               +9.05u                  +9.05u
2011                  -2.10u               +7.90u                  +3.75u
2012                  -0.45u             +14.85u                +14.55u
2013                  -0.75u               +8.15u                  +8.15u
2014                  -0.70u             +18.80u                +13.15u
2015                  -1.25u             +15.35u                +15.00u
2016                  -3.48u               +6.32u                  +6.32u

Doesn't go deep into the negative.

Doesnt go negative almost at all. AND, what is interesting is that for almost all seasons the highest point of +units is right at the end of the season. One can play this system from start to finish without thinking of anything related to months.

Good that you noticed that everything was doubled. I had the same thing with some of my excel stuff but because I did not realize at first that my data had each game twice, I calculated with the normal number of games per season and just had twice as good ROI compared to what it normally would be :D

The earliest this system's filter has hit since 2004 is April 20th. Still at least a week or two out for a first play. Pitchers need a few more starts to get their ERA's and WHIP's to more normal levels.

Cant wait for the first plays :)

If HOU/OAK total drops to 7.5, we'll have a play today. Most books have it at 8 right now, so we'll see closer to game time.

No plays today ... HOU/OAK postponed.

what is the SDQL query look like? Like this?

what does* ^

REG and H and 6.5 <= total <= 8 and total / 2 <= STDSERA <= 5.25 and total / 2 <= o:STDSERA <=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP <= 1.55


I added a filter for regular season. I also added a home filter; otherwise, each game was returned twice.

The original query actually rounded the ERA and WHIP values to the nearest tenth. I removed that rounding, and it changed the ROI a little. Still 12%.

Reading over the first post again, I wanted to point something out.

Good point. I haven't done much additional research into the bullpen side of these games. I basically started with the idea, built a query to match the concept, and noticed the good results. Great bullpen performance may actually be the reason the under has been more dominant. Had the pitchers gone the distance, the 8+ runs would be more likely, but if the pitchers left the game to a solid bullpen, then fewer runs would be more likely. Definitely worth a look.

Thought I'd post an interesting stat while waiting for the first play on this system.

The original basic query (6.5<=total<=8 and STDSERA >= total/2 and o:STDSERA >= total/2) with the 5% ROI is performing incredibly well in April this year. April and May are usually the weakest months because solid ERA's are still being established.

Check out the record for the UNDER so far based on the SDQL database, compared to previous years:

Season        Record     Profit/Loss
  2012        17-10-1        +$615
  2013        17-21-2        -$610
  2014        16-16-2        -$150
  2015        16-18-2        -$397
  2016        20-14-1        +$453
  2017         16-5-0       +$1040

I haven't checked the SDQL totals versus actual books, but if they are accurate, that's quite a run for the UNDER.

Today's UNDER plays for the basic query would have been Angels, Giants, Mets, Red Sox, and White Sox.

Red Sox and White Sox already finished UNDER.
Mets game was an OVER.

So, updated record is 18-6-0.

Hopefully, this bodes well for the higher ROI filtered system.

Very nice. I can't believe the O/U for the SF game was only 6.5! You'd think Kershaw was pitching lol. Even at 6.5, they still needed extra innings to over. This is interesting and I can't wait to start following the official plays!

You can upload the game log ?


nice system , thx for all info

Hey husker would today's play according to the original query be MIA/TB under?

The original query without capping the ERA or adding the WHIP? ... yep. ROI is only 5% over the long haul, but it's on fire this year, and April is usually the worst. Current record for 2017 is sitting at 22-8.
Should get about 200-300 plays per season.

I probably should have tracked that one instead of the more restricted one. Definitely more action. Since we're in a new month, I may just go ahead and track both.

Use this to spit out this season's plays. It updates daily. Only play for today would be the MIA/TB game.
 
REG and H and 6.5<=total<=8 and STDSERA>=total/2 and o:STDSERA>=total/2 and season=2017

Alright, let's track both the original and filtered UNDER queries for 2017.

Original (Historical ROI = 5%)
H and 6.5<=total<=8 and STDSERA >= total/2 and o:STDSERA >= total/2 and season=2017

     April Record:  22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)

     Tonight's Play:  TB at MIA, Total=8
           UNDER:  -115


Filtered (Historical ROI = 13%)
H and 6.5 <= total <= 8 and total / 2 <= STDSERA <= 5.25 and total / 2 <= o:STDSERA <= 5.25 and 1.25 <= STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and 1.25 <= o:STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and season 2017

        No plays in April.

        First three plays showing up for tomorrow (5/2).
        I will update tomorrow if they become official.

        MIL at STL, Total=8.0
        COL at SD,  Total=7.5
        CLE at DET, Total=8.0

Is it possible if you can runs first 5 inning and see the result