I'm not going to be at a computer until games start up tonight. Here are the plays for tonight as it stands right now. Using 5Dimes odds. Also showing SDQL odds.
Filtered System
MIL @ STL: 7.5u -105 (5Dimes), -110 (SDQL)
COL @ SD: 7.5u -115 (5Dimes), -125 (SDQL)
CLE @ DET: 8.0u -115 (5Dimes), -110 (SDQL)
Unfiltered Original System
Same as above, but add ...
TB @ MIA: 8.0u, -105 (5Dimes), -110 (SDQL)
Good luck!
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I'm not going to be at a computer until games start up tonight. Here are the plays for tonight as it stands right now. Using 5Dimes odds. Also showing SDQL odds.
I'll be playing both sets, so whatever fits your style. The filtered is very low on the number of plays, and the unfiltered provides more opportunities. Plus, the unfiltered is on fire right now, so I'm curious where it's heading this season.
I hadn't planned to track the unfiltered because normally it averages about 250 plays per season (since 2011) with +17 units average profit. The filtered has averaged +10 units per season on only 70 plays per season.
Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by alansanchnorcal:
So are we betting the unfilters also?
I'll be playing both sets, so whatever fits your style. The filtered is very low on the number of plays, and the unfiltered provides more opportunities. Plus, the unfiltered is on fire right now, so I'm curious where it's heading this season.
I hadn't planned to track the unfiltered because normally it averages about 250 plays per season (since 2011) with +17 units average profit. The filtered has averaged +10 units per season on only 70 plays per season.
Only 10 -17 units profit per year???????? Am i reading it wrong????
Check out post #6 for the filtered results. It's a low-play system with 13% ROI over 10 seasons using flat betting. I have a few systems like this. Play them in tandem, and you get a nice return with lower risk to the bankroll.
The unfiltered system has more plays but only a 5% ROI. Use a labby line on it, and it generates significantly better than +17 units per season.
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Quote Originally Posted by alansanchnorcal:
Only 10 -17 units profit per year???????? Am i reading it wrong????
Check out post #6 for the filtered results. It's a low-play system with 13% ROI over 10 seasons using flat betting. I have a few systems like this. Play them in tandem, and you get a nice return with lower risk to the bankroll.
The unfiltered system has more plays but only a 5% ROI. Use a labby line on it, and it generates significantly better than +17 units per season.
Not sure where SDQL pulls their starting pitchers from but they currently are showing Quintana for ChiSox when it is Pelfrey. Quintana pitched last night. I only mention it because they show as a play today.
Keep up the good work!
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Not sure where SDQL pulls their starting pitchers from but they currently are showing Quintana for ChiSox when it is Pelfrey. Quintana pitched last night. I only mention it because they show as a play today.
Not sure where SDQL pulls their starting pitchers from but they currently are showing Quintana for ChiSox when it is Pelfrey. Quintana pitched last night. I only mention it because they show as a play today.
Keep up the good work!
Yeah, thanks for the heads-up. Just noticed that. Still a possible play on the unfiltered system, but shouldn't be on the filtered.
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
Not sure where SDQL pulls their starting pitchers from but they currently are showing Quintana for ChiSox when it is Pelfrey. Quintana pitched last night. I only mention it because they show as a play today.
Keep up the good work!
Yeah, thanks for the heads-up. Just noticed that. Still a possible play on the unfiltered system, but shouldn't be on the filtered.
Trying to get a better idea about how to handle O/U line fluctuations
with these systems. For example, do you want 6.5U or 7.0U when the line
is moving between an UNDER at 6.5 with positive odds and an UNDER at 7.0
with negative odds.
So, I checked ROI since 2007 for each total based on whether the odds were Favorite or Dog.
Using
today's PHI/CHC game as an example. The line was fluctuating from 7
(-120) to 6.5 (+112). For the unfiltered system, the play with the
better ROI is the 7 (-120) with 9.7% ROI compared to the play with 6.5
(+112) with 2.4% ROI. For the filtered system, the play with the better
ROI is the 6.5 (+112) with 38.8% ROI compared to the play with 7 (-120)
with 10.4% ROI.
The current 6.5 (+112) odds for PHI/CHC looks great for the Filtered
System.
The CWS/KC game looks to be settling in at 7.5 (+102) which is some concern. We'll see.
Half
the books have the LAA/SEA game at 8.5. Others have it at 8.0 (+102).
It either won't meet the Total parameter of the systems or it will land
on a line with negative historical ROI. Still waiting.
Anyway, just something to consider when waiting for the best line. Again, these ROI's are based on closing lines from SDQL.
Unfiltered System - ROI since 2007 Total Favorite Dog 6.5 15.0% 2.4% 7.0 9.7% 11.4% 7.5 9.5% -6.0% 8.0 7.0% -5.1%
All 9.0% 1.0%
Filtered System - ROI since 2007
Total Favorite Dog 6.5 -14.9% 38.8% 7.0 10.4% 16.2% 7.5 25.2% -2.7% 8.0 10.8% -16.1%
All 15.3% 4.0%
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Trying to get a better idea about how to handle O/U line fluctuations
with these systems. For example, do you want 6.5U or 7.0U when the line
is moving between an UNDER at 6.5 with positive odds and an UNDER at 7.0
with negative odds.
So, I checked ROI since 2007 for each total based on whether the odds were Favorite or Dog.
Using
today's PHI/CHC game as an example. The line was fluctuating from 7
(-120) to 6.5 (+112). For the unfiltered system, the play with the
better ROI is the 7 (-120) with 9.7% ROI compared to the play with 6.5
(+112) with 2.4% ROI. For the filtered system, the play with the better
ROI is the 6.5 (+112) with 38.8% ROI compared to the play with 7 (-120)
with 10.4% ROI.
The current 6.5 (+112) odds for PHI/CHC looks great for the Filtered
System.
The CWS/KC game looks to be settling in at 7.5 (+102) which is some concern. We'll see.
Half
the books have the LAA/SEA game at 8.5. Others have it at 8.0 (+102).
It either won't meet the Total parameter of the systems or it will land
on a line with negative historical ROI. Still waiting.
Anyway, just something to consider when waiting for the best line. Again, these ROI's are based on closing lines from SDQL.
Unfiltered System - ROI since 2007 Total Favorite Dog 6.5 15.0% 2.4% 7.0 9.7% 11.4% 7.5 9.5% -6.0% 8.0 7.0% -5.1%
All 9.0% 1.0%
Filtered System - ROI since 2007
Total Favorite Dog 6.5 -14.9% 38.8% 7.0 10.4% 16.2% 7.5 25.2% -2.7% 8.0 10.8% -16.1%
Interesting I've wanted to mathematically figure out what each half a run is worth in MLB. Obviously with 7 and 9 being the key totals in MLB it would be worth much more going from 6.5 to 7 or 7 to 7.5 than 7.5 to 8, etc.
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Interesting I've wanted to mathematically figure out what each half a run is worth in MLB. Obviously with 7 and 9 being the key totals in MLB it would be worth much more going from 6.5 to 7 or 7 to 7.5 than 7.5 to 8, etc.
good work , thx !!!
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