Posted:
#2101
Hey SN
Was looking for the NFL threat but could no find it.
Anything about this?
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MLB system releases...
Posted:
#2105
RD, yes! my intention is to continue MLB through out the playoffs, and into the World Series...to finalize the season..
The 'new' thread, "MLB World Series 09'/Base_Runs version"
will be released at the start of Playoffs, and run to the final game of the WorldSeries.....
Yes, I continue to follow MLB on a daily basis, attached to 'spot' play/situational handicapping wagers(two per day) ......
I do appreciate your interest, unfortunately this thread; as stated, hase been concluded of discussion, and halted of participation..
No, it will not be repeated for the 2010 mlb season.
best regards,
SN
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Posted:
#2114
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
Yes, with a 82 game format the NBA 'fits the criterea ML, pointspread, twin teasers, which generates value connected to this particular system, their are many formulas connected to handicapping the NBA...
The NHL is capped 'situational' matchup, with PL, ML, as alternatives to value...
No, this thread will not be repeated for the 10' MLB season
may you prosper always....
SN
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Posted:
#2116
I haven't read through this entire forum, but I feel like I'm missing something. There are multiple posts that say that the entire system is explained in detail at the start of the forum but the first post just gives picks and not an explanation. Later posts refer to pieces of the strategy without ever encapsulating it.
Is there one long post that describes the whole strategy in detail?
Where is it?
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Posted:
#2118
OK...I'm on page 8 of the 85 pages and numerous people are saying "I did the calculations on XXX game and got YYY values" etc.
How are they doing these calculations without an exact formula?
Sports_network keeps referring people back to the baseruns calculation on tangotiger and wikipedia. But those calculations only tell you the number of runs produced in the past. They don't (as far as I can tell) have anything in them to account for expected regression to the mean or career path (ie a 24 year old will probably outperform his career avgs while a 39 year old will probably underperform). They also don't translate historical runs produced into a probability for the future game.
I'm also unclear on whether you are supposed to be using only direct batter vs pitcher #s or the batter and pitchers overall numbers against all other competition.
Obviously, a lot of work has gone into this thread. Over 2000 posts have been written on this subject. Reading them, it sounds like people have spent a lot of time doing a lot of calculations.
Its hard for me to believe that this many people are spending this much time evaluating a formula when nobody seems to know exactly what the formula is.
Surely, somewhere somebody summarized the thing. Right????
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Posted:
#2119
The more I read of this, the more suspicious I get.
Several times, people have asked him to give a complete description of the formula. Each time, he says to go back and read the previous post or to look at some other sabermetrics website.
But the other posts and websites don't describe the formula. At least, not as he is apparently alluding to it.
Frankly the whole thing looks like a prank or scam. Just throw out some pseudo-scientific words out of context. Throw in a few references to legitimate sources that are talking about tangentially related topics. Whenever anybody asks you to summarize, claim you've done it 1000 times when you haven't done it once....
What is the point of this? How did it go on for a year and 2000 messages?
Its funny because I do like sabermetrics and do think that it helps in betting and analyzing baseball.
What a waste of time....
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Posted:
#2120
To answer the question, "How did [this thread] go on for a year and 2000 messages?" My best answer is that SN kept posting winning picks consistently. I was never able to discern any replicable formula in this thread. I can't point to any evidence that any actual formula exists if "formula" is defined as a mathematical equation where anybody can plug in numbers and get the same answer as anybody else using the same equation and plugging in the same numbers. However, there were some posters coming up with their picks using the information gleaned from this thread, presumably, who were coming up with similar picks after "running the numbers." Maybe the information you seek is in this thread or this thread directs one to the information you seek. If you come up with a mathematical formula and the source of data to plug into the formula, post it. I would like to know what it is too.
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Posted:
#2121
Complaining about a lack of understanding is not SN's fault,nor is it the fault of other participants in this thread,
If you are looking for a+b=c and everyone comes to the same conclusion and hits 70% of their plays then I would be disappointed also. It is all there, and if you expect to grasp it all in a day or two or even a week then you are not a professional handicapper.
1.) The Base Runs formula gives the lean on the play..
2.) Attach it to your own situational analysis..
3.) PAC Formula (Position Adjusted Classification) determines the plays that make the cut or not...
4.) Unit attachment
SN hit 70% of his plays - posted. The mathematical formula applies to step 1 only....step 2 is derived from each individual handicapper....as well as step 3 and step 4 .If for some reason you do not grasp the 4 steps above then I'd suggest reading the thread again. Then read all the suggested topics again. SN methods are advanced and not for novices.
This is the most important document to baseball handicapping I have seen in 20 years....He didn't hit 70% of his plays by luck.
If you are looking for a+b=c and everyone comes to the same conclusion and hits 70% of their plays then I would be disappointed also. It is all there, and if you expect to grasp it all in a day or two or even a week then you are not a professional handicapper.
1.) The Base Runs formula gives the lean on the play..
2.) Attach it to your own situational analysis..
3.) PAC Formula (Position Adjusted Classification) determines the plays that make the cut or not...
4.) Unit attachment
SN hit 70% of his plays - posted. The mathematical formula applies to step 1 only....step 2 is derived from each individual handicapper....as well as step 3 and step 4 .If for some reason you do not grasp the 4 steps above then I'd suggest reading the thread again. Then read all the suggested topics again. SN methods are advanced and not for novices.
This is the most important document to baseball handicapping I have seen in 20 years....He didn't hit 70% of his plays by luck.
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Posted:
#2123
You're right. I don't understand!!
The whole idea of this thing is working off a formula and everybody always seems to be referencing this formula as if its clearly stated somewhere but its not stated anywhere. If its so successful and its not proprietary, why doesn't anybody just write out clearly what it is instead of referring to other documents that don't write out what it is.
Not to toot my own horn, but I'm pretty good at math. Its not that I can't follow the calculus of the steps outlined. Its that there are not and have never been any steps outlined. If the "system" is really just go on your gut feel, then thats all fine and dandy, but I don't think it should really be referred to as a system or referred to as a formula.
If you are looking for a+b=c and everyone comes to the same conclusion and hits 70% of their plays then I would be disappointed also. It is all there, and if you expect to grasp it all in a day or two or even a week then you are not a professional handicapper.
I never said it had to be as simple as a+b=c. I'm no stranger to complex applied math and if you want to get into logarithms, exponentials, multi-base-n numbers, whatever, I can guarantee you I can follow along. I might not get it in a day or two, but I will get it. Thats if there is anything there to get.
1.) The Base Runs formula gives the lean on the play..
2.) Attach it to your own situational analysis..
3.) PAC Formula (Position Adjusted Classification) determines the plays that make the cut or not...
4.) Unit attachment
2.) Attach it to your own situational analysis..
3.) PAC Formula (Position Adjusted Classification) determines the plays that make the cut or not...
4.) Unit attachment
1) I'm very familiar with how to calculate baseruns. No argument here. I think baserun is a very useful tool and I like it. While there are several variations, they are clearly explained.
But baseruns will only tell you how players have performed in the past. By saying "gives the lean on the play", I think you are saying which team is likely to win the game. I guess baseruns can tell you that. One of many formulas could tell you that. That doesn't get you very far. A -150 favorite is always going to win the game more often than not. The question isn't really whether they have a >50% chance of winning as much as if they have a 55% chance of winning (bet against them) or a 65% chance of winning (bet on them).
2) Extremely vague. If you are saying a large piece is whatever the user wants to say it is, what kind of formula is that. If that is not what you are saying, what are you saying?
3) It sounds like you're referencing a formula, but you don't say what that formula is. Why not explain it clearly? Or at least link to a place that does?
4) Same as 3). Obviously you need to attach units, but what good does it do to say that without explaining how....
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Posted:
#2124
Tallguy..I'll help if I can..
#1.BaseRuns gives the lean - if a particular lineup against today's pitchers, using the BaseRuns to recreate a 9-inning game will give an estimate on the final score. After calculating 50 or so games this way it will become apparent what constitutes a strong lean which one should focus on. Purely mathematicla here.
#2 Situational analysis. This is different for each handicapper. EX. Team a has won 10 of he last 12 at home, pitcher XYZ has given up less than 3 runs the last 5 games....etc...As you can see..the possibilities here are endless and each handicapper follows his own situational trends.
#3 PAC classification is a way of giving the BAse-Runs lean a weighted average, and your situational play a weighted average...tying these together will give a final value of the strength of the play. Again, this is handicapper specific on how the averages work out and what determines your "Cut". I personally only play maybe 3-4 games per days..so only my best plays cmke it.
Go here:https://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2212&highlight=pac+classification
for a nice discussion of APBRMetrics, which is sabermetrics for Basketball. The whole site is really helpful.
#4.) SN Units attachment; Run lines are 8 Units, Totals 4 Units.Sides are 4-8 Units depending on the PAC Unit strength.
So you see, #2 & #3 are handicapper specific....and #4 can be as well, although I did follow SN's method here.
#1.BaseRuns gives the lean - if a particular lineup against today's pitchers, using the BaseRuns to recreate a 9-inning game will give an estimate on the final score. After calculating 50 or so games this way it will become apparent what constitutes a strong lean which one should focus on. Purely mathematicla here.
#2 Situational analysis. This is different for each handicapper. EX. Team a has won 10 of he last 12 at home, pitcher XYZ has given up less than 3 runs the last 5 games....etc...As you can see..the possibilities here are endless and each handicapper follows his own situational trends.
#3 PAC classification is a way of giving the BAse-Runs lean a weighted average, and your situational play a weighted average...tying these together will give a final value of the strength of the play. Again, this is handicapper specific on how the averages work out and what determines your "Cut". I personally only play maybe 3-4 games per days..so only my best plays cmke it.
Go here:https://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2212&highlight=pac+classification
for a nice discussion of APBRMetrics, which is sabermetrics for Basketball. The whole site is really helpful.
#4.) SN Units attachment; Run lines are 8 Units, Totals 4 Units.Sides are 4-8 Units depending on the PAC Unit strength.
So you see, #2 & #3 are handicapper specific....and #4 can be as well, although I did follow SN's method here.
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Posted:
#2125
I'm going to describe how to make the perfect cake. This cake will taste better than everyone else's cake.
Flour is really important. Here is a link on the history of flour. You might not believe me but all of the best chefs use flour. Emiril Lagasse uses flour. Wolfgang Puck uses flour too. They know a lot about cooking and if they use flour, you should use flour too.
Other ingredients are also important. Some people use margarine. Some people use butter. Some people add vanilla extract. Others don't. Some people like to use a taste of lemon use or ground up almonds. Its up to you what other ingredients you use.
You also need to bake the cake. Again this is really important. Read this link on the history of ovens. The oven should be set at a certain temperature and for a certain amount of time. I told you the temperature and time a million times already. I don't need to tell them to you again. Go back and read the previous posts for the formula. (The previous posts contain no temperature or time--They do contain a link to websites that explain thermometers and clocks).
Anyway, now you have the recipe for the perfect cake. Go out and make it. If it tastes good, I will gladly take credit for the results. If it tastes bad, you must have messed up something along the way. Its certainly not my fault.
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