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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #476
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

I am making my first attempt at this with the Phillies vs. Nationals game today.  These teams and pitchers face each other often and I think there will be a lot of info out there.
 
If anyone could provide me with there calculations or even just results for this game, it would be very appreciated.

    Nationals 6.2 vs Phillies 5.7 .........total:11.9

    lean:WAS+240

    total play:over 9

    alternative:scratch

  take note:the above #'s are based on the BR/RC formula in 'pure' form, with no handicapping variables applicated.......later

 
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Posted: #477
When you calculated Total Bases, do you include 1 base for a walk?
 
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Posted: #478
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

When you calculated Total Bases, do you include 1 base for a walk?

YES.......

 
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Posted: #479
MLB system releases Saturday 05/30/09 Base_Runs formula....
 
                                      Cardinals+125 RL
                                      Tigers+140 RL
                                      Yankees+105 RL
 
                                      Twins vs DevilRays OVER 8.5
                                      RedSox vs BlueJays UNDER 10
                                      Reds vs Brewers OVER 7.5
                                      Braves vs Diamondbacks OVER 8.5
 
 
gp:7
projected wins:5
reference:experimental RL / DOG
wagering$:yes
objective:documentation
form:unit management/value plays
 
 
                                 
 
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Posted: #480
so for the over r we just taking the offense on both sides vs starting pitcher and if both teams hit that guy well we go for it?  dumb ? i know but this is interesting?
 
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Posted: #481
Quote Originally Posted by bigcountry26:

so for the over r we just taking the offense on both sides vs starting pitcher and if both teams hit that guy well we go for it?  dumb ? i know but this is interesting?

The odds against both teams having exact final equations are astronomical...The BR 'read' is your base, and is used as a tool in determining your final "cut" leading to your wagers on the days action....

 
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Posted: #482
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

The odds against both teams having exact final equations are astronomical...The BR 'read' is your base, and is used as a tool in determining your final "cut" leading to your wagers on the days action....

 

ok that makes more sense would you be able to give a quick dummy example pretend lets say the dodger and cubs without realy spending your time lookn at it just throw me an example if it isn't too much trouble

 
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Posted: #483
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    Nationals 6.2 vs Phillies 5.7 .........total:11.9

    lean:WAS+240

    total play:over 9

    alternative:scratch

  take note:the above #'s are based on the BR/RC formula in 'pure' form, with no handicapping variables applicated.......later

bigcountry26, your requested 'example'.......

 
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Posted: #484
 
I completed my base Runs analysis for the Phils vs. Nationals game.  I want to start with simply attacking the first five innings to see how my methods work.  I am getting a similar result of Nationals with a slight edge, but I am also getting numbers higher than what is reasonable.  (WAS 7.5 vs. PHI 5.5 for the first five innings)
 
My process was determing the Base Runs for each player against the opposing starter, then dividing that figure by 9 innings, then multiplying the per inning base runs by 5 to determine the first five innings result.  I am sure I am oversimplifying the process.
 
Any advice?
 
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Posted: #485
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

bigcountry26, your requested 'example'.......

 

that helps thanks!

 
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Posted: #486
br being base runs correct?
 
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Posted: #487
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

 
  (WAS 7.5 vs. PHI 5.5 for the first five innings)*
 
My process was determing the Base Runs for each player against the opposing starter, then dividing that figure by 9 innings, then multiplying the per inning base runs by 5 to determine the first five innings result.  I am sure I am oversimplifying the process.
 
Any advice?

*cut this in half, and you have your BR results:

        (WAS 3.7 vs PHI 2.7  5innings)

 
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Posted: #488
Quote Originally Posted by bigcountry26:

br being base runs correct?

BR=Base_Runs

RC=Runs_Created

 
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Posted: #489
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

 
   " I am sure I am oversimplifying the process."
 
Any advice?

better to 'oversimplify' than 'undercomplicate' ........

 
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Posted: #490

Sports N

How long does it take you on an average game day to cap this info?  Today isnt bad because of being off work, but as i was reading earlier in this thread time can be an issue during the week.  Do you do every game or do look at pitchn mathcup first and work your way from there?

 
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Posted: #491
Sports N,
 
one more ? do you factor in how each pitcher mathces up against right or left handed hitters or just go on the previous history against each team?
 
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Posted: #492
Quote Originally Posted by bigcountry26:

Sports N

How long does it take you on an average game day to cap this info?  Today isnt bad because of being off work, but as i was reading earlier in this thread time can be an issue during the week.  Do you do every game or do look at pitchn mathcup first and work your way from there?

I capp every game (about 20 minutes per) then make a final cut to decide on the wagers, which in this particular form have resulted in RL plays/action (I am speaking on the experimental form iniciated)

 
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Posted: #493
Quote Originally Posted by bigcountry26:

Sports N,
 
one more ? do you factor in how each pitcher mathces up against right or left handed hitters or just go on the previous history against each team?

righty/lefty plays a strong factor, every available sabermetric stat is taken into consideration, and applied, take nothing for granted...

 
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Posted: #494
hey network, out of the Cardinals+125 RL
                                      Tigers+140 RL
                                      Yankees+105 RL which one you have the strongest lean or runs different? thanks
 
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Posted: #495
Quote Originally Posted by kC1234:

hey network, out of the Cardinals+125 RL
                                      Tigers+140 RL
                                      Yankees+105 RL which one you have the strongest lean or runs different? thanks

Cardinals+125 RL  is two**  I have 4 units invested in this game...

 
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Posted: #496
got ya.  i guess some days ill just have to do what i can.  i'm going to watch u guys for a bit on the overs ill just cap teams to win for now
 
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Posted: #497
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Cardinals+125 RL  is two**  I have 4 units invested in this game...


thanks network, i was considering that as well after checking out both carpender and zitos record.
 
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Posted: #498
Quote Originally Posted by bigcountry26:

got ya.  i guess some days ill just have to do what i can.  i'm going to watch u guys for a bit on the overs ill just cap teams to win for now

I would recommend you scroll through the entire thread from it's conception, to gain insight, and concept, it's self explainatory, and brings the answer's to your questions to the forefront, upon review. the details will give you a more in-depth understanding, and an assessment on it's success ratio, that stands at a 70% advantage

 

 
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Posted: #499
Quote Originally Posted by kC1234:


thanks network, i was considering that as well after checking out both carpender and zitos record.

 Zito's stats are inflated, and not 'clear'..he's weak, and holding on for the sake of his multi-contract. As the season progresses, Zito's value as a SP will deteriate to zero effect.....

 
 
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Posted: #500
Quote Originally Posted by PuckHog:

Thanks   uzovka........  is the other file u shared related to BBL?

                                    LM SETUP.exe

Hi Puck.

The other file I created for my friend, who is testing progressive Labouchere math system in long run for MLB. It's old version, we're using the new one now.

We need to wait couple of months for the results ;)


                     

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