Personally, when tracking a 'systems' performance, I think all plays that meet the system parameters (RPI and filter criteria) are in play and count towards the final performance.
A 'system' should be automatic so that any monkey can press a button to use it. When you start handicapping your system, it is really no longer a system that anyone can use because everyone will handicap differently and thus have different results.
IOW, it's my thinking that all four plays today should count towards the performance statistics of the system. Whether or not you personally play all four is up to you.
Good points. I think for the Dodgers I'll still play it but maybe 1/2 unit instead of full. I did the same for the White Sox the other day.
Personally, when tracking a 'systems' performance, I think all plays that meet the system parameters (RPI and filter criteria) are in play and count towards the final performance.
A 'system' should be automatic so that any monkey can press a button to use it. When you start handicapping your system, it is really no longer a system that anyone can use because everyone will handicap differently and thus have different results.
IOW, it's my thinking that all four plays today should count towards the performance statistics of the system. Whether or not you personally play all four is up to you.
Good points. I think for the Dodgers I'll still play it but maybe 1/2 unit instead of full. I did the same for the White Sox the other day.
Some food for thought. Since we are playing the GOOD team as a four game series against two lessor teams in two two-game series back-to-back...would it not also make sense to play against the BAD team as a four game series against two better teams in two two-game series?
Such as: VS San Diego against WAS & LAD and also VS Kansas City against TEX & BAL
Both SD and KC qualify as inferior in RPI to both of their upcoming opponents. MIN would also qualify to play against as well, EXCEPT DET does not have a better than .500 record. (Unofficial I guess).
My guess is that there has not been back-testing on this? It follows the same logic - that bad teams will lose at least one against two good teams.
However it is a slightly different dynamic invloved - going against a bad team to lose one against two DIFFERENT good teams instead of backing a good team to win one against two different bad teams.
This would add a VS KC (Tex again) as it's own separate series and a VS SD (WAS) as it's own series to this group. If you wanted to add an unofficial VS MIN (DET) series you could as well.
I understand this is not your system, but it is right in line with the exact same logic
Talk to me Goose!
Good call Smart! So the plays would then be: AGAINST: sd, kc and min (unofficial but let's face it, min is terrible).
As far as considering injuries, as with Kemp....That's a great question. It is one of my filters as a no play/possible no play until we see how the team does without him (since Kemp is the leader of the LAD). Either way, CANIS is right, whether or not Kemp is hurt, it's still an official play.
Some food for thought. Since we are playing the GOOD team as a four game series against two lessor teams in two two-game series back-to-back...would it not also make sense to play against the BAD team as a four game series against two better teams in two two-game series?
Such as: VS San Diego against WAS & LAD and also VS Kansas City against TEX & BAL
Both SD and KC qualify as inferior in RPI to both of their upcoming opponents. MIN would also qualify to play against as well, EXCEPT DET does not have a better than .500 record. (Unofficial I guess).
My guess is that there has not been back-testing on this? It follows the same logic - that bad teams will lose at least one against two good teams.
However it is a slightly different dynamic invloved - going against a bad team to lose one against two DIFFERENT good teams instead of backing a good team to win one against two different bad teams.
This would add a VS KC (Tex again) as it's own separate series and a VS SD (WAS) as it's own series to this group. If you wanted to add an unofficial VS MIN (DET) series you could as well.
I understand this is not your system, but it is right in line with the exact same logic
Talk to me Goose!
Good call Smart! So the plays would then be: AGAINST: sd, kc and min (unofficial but let's face it, min is terrible).
As far as considering injuries, as with Kemp....That's a great question. It is one of my filters as a no play/possible no play until we see how the team does without him (since Kemp is the leader of the LAD). Either way, CANIS is right, whether or not Kemp is hurt, it's still an official play.
Somebody said we had like 16 sweeps last year. IDK. It would work a lot of the time, but definitely not all the time. At least you would normally have + juice.
Ok thanks for clearing that one up. Not a good idea from me then.. :)
Somebody said we had like 16 sweeps last year. IDK. It would work a lot of the time, but definitely not all the time. At least you would normally have + juice.
Ok thanks for clearing that one up. Not a good idea from me then.. :)
Can anyone help me out with this? The spreadsheet (both versions) are showing four games today though there are only two official plays today. What am I missing? Thanks.
Can anyone help me out with this? The spreadsheet (both versions) are showing four games today though there are only two official plays today. What am I missing? Thanks.
I fucking knew it in the 3rd inning they were gonna lose. KC was putting people on base every inning. I took them in the first 5 and all they had to do was close up the top of the 5th and I would have won.
I want to back test how many RPI picks scored first.
I fucking knew it in the 3rd inning they were gonna lose. KC was putting people on base every inning. I took them in the first 5 and all they had to do was close up the top of the 5th and I would have won.
I want to back test how many RPI picks scored first.
i'm laying a lot on the line tomorrow for texas ML, if they lose (please let me win betting gods LOL) i will take a break for a while, i'll be back though.
i'm laying a lot on the line tomorrow for texas ML, if they lose (please let me win betting gods LOL) i will take a break for a while, i'll be back though.
Can anyone help me out with this? The spreadsheet (both versions) are showing four games today though there are only two official plays today. What am I missing? Thanks.
Can anyone help me out with this? The spreadsheet (both versions) are showing four games today though there are only two official plays today. What am I missing? Thanks.
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