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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB: Please don't sweep me

    «First Previous 123 ... 8910 Next Last»
    yanks21x
    Thasian
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    «First Previous 123 ... 8910 Next Last»
     
    yanks21x
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 13, 2019 - 11:14 PM ET #201

    Why am I trying for unders lol? I just want winners lol... trying to force plays trying to win back 1400 quickly to try to win something this season lol... so angels scoring now damn. They got the both games vs dodgers and now first with rays... dbacks are rolling...not sure what about Colorado equals a lot of runs, the weather winds and altitude or w.e mountain stuff... I guess

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    Why am I trying for unders lol? I just want winners lol... trying to force plays trying to win back 1400 quickly to try to win something this season lol... so angels scoring now damn. They got the both games vs dodgers and now first with rays... dbacks are rolling...not sure what about Colorado equals a lot of runs, the weather winds and altitude or w.e mountain stuff... I guess

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2019 - 6:32 PM ET #202

    Rays v Angels: Snell - Heaney:5.71 to win 3.40

    Yankees @White Sox: Sabathia - Giolito: 3.76 to win 3.67

     

    Astros v Blue Jays (A): Cole -Sanchez: 2.86 to win 1.00

    Braves v Phillies (A): Fried - Pivetta: 1.25 to win 1.00 

    Brewers @Giants (A): Davies - Pomeranz: 1.35 to win 1.00

    Indians @Tigers (A): Plutko - Carpenter: 1.60 to win 1.00

    Red Sox @Orioles (A): Rodriguez - Ortiz: 2.31 to win 1.00 

    Twins v Royals (A): Gibson - Keller: 2.21 to win 1.00

     

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    Rays v Angels: Snell - Heaney:5.71 to win 3.40

    Yankees @White Sox: Sabathia - Giolito: 3.76 to win 3.67

     

    Astros v Blue Jays (A): Cole -Sanchez: 2.86 to win 1.00

    Braves v Phillies (A): Fried - Pivetta: 1.25 to win 1.00 

    Brewers @Giants (A): Davies - Pomeranz: 1.35 to win 1.00

    Indians @Tigers (A): Plutko - Carpenter: 1.60 to win 1.00

    Red Sox @Orioles (A): Rodriguez - Ortiz: 2.31 to win 1.00 

    Twins v Royals (A): Gibson - Keller: 2.21 to win 1.00

     

     
    yanks21x
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 12:11 AM ET #203

    Why did I go Mets under and rockies over lol both seem to not be working on final game ugh... fml... totals are so hard!

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    Why did I go Mets under and rockies over lol both seem to not be working on final game ugh... fml... totals are so hard!

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 11:29 AM ET #204

    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Rays v Angels (B): Snell - Heaney:5.71 to win 3.40

    Yankees @White Sox (B): Sabathia - Giolito: 3.76 to win 3.67  

     

    Astros v Blue Jays (A): Cole -Sanchez: 2.86 to win 1.00

    Braves v Phillies (A): Fried - Pivetta: 1.25 to win 1.00 

    Brewers @Giants (A): Davies - Pomeranz: 1.35 to win 1.00

    Indians @Tigers (A): Plutko - Carpenter: 1.60 to win 1.00

    Red Sox @Orioles (A): Rodriguez - Ortiz: 2.31 to win 1.00 

    Twins v Royals (A): Gibson - Keller: 2.21 to win 1.00

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Rays v Angels (B): Snell - Heaney:5.71 to win 3.40

    Yankees @White Sox (B): Sabathia - Giolito: 3.76 to win 3.67  

     

    Astros v Blue Jays (A): Cole -Sanchez: 2.86 to win 1.00

    Braves v Phillies (A): Fried - Pivetta: 1.25 to win 1.00 

    Brewers @Giants (A): Davies - Pomeranz: 1.35 to win 1.00

    Indians @Tigers (A): Plutko - Carpenter: 1.60 to win 1.00

    Red Sox @Orioles (A): Rodriguez - Ortiz: 2.31 to win 1.00 

    Twins v Royals (A): Gibson - Keller: 2.21 to win 1.00

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2019 - 11:53 AM ET #205

    Yankees @White Sox (C): Green - Lopez: 13.95 to win 8.43

     

    Brewers @Giants (B): Nelson - Bumgarner: 3.63 to win 3.35

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    Yankees @White Sox (C): Green - Lopez: 13.95 to win 8.43

     

    Brewers @Giants (B): Nelson - Bumgarner: 3.63 to win 3.35

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 1:26 PM ET #206

    Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

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    Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

     
    yanks21x
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 6:59 PM ET #207

    astros reds under series?

    nats phillies over series?

    mets braves over series?

    cardinals marlins under series?

    not sure why i even ask but just wondering your opinion...

    chasing can get scary real quick... and i find myself just jumping off if i am already up for the week... too scared to take that one big loss to wipe out a lot of wins...

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    astros reds under series?

    nats phillies over series?

    mets braves over series?

    cardinals marlins under series?

    not sure why i even ask but just wondering your opinion...

    chasing can get scary real quick... and i find myself just jumping off if i am already up for the week... too scared to take that one big loss to wipe out a lot of wins...

     
    yanks21x
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2019 - 7:35 PM ET #208

    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

    happy this came through for you... i could not push myself... was too scared to give back winnings for the week :(

    yankees when i realized it was 4 game series, i figured if not game 3 then game 4 they would win... so i did go there

    i think you are up nicely again... an_popcornnew_praise

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

    happy this came through for you... i could not push myself... was too scared to give back winnings for the week :(

    yankees when i realized it was 4 game series, i figured if not game 3 then game 4 they would win... so i did go there

    i think you are up nicely again... an_popcornnew_praise

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 3:11 AM ET #209

    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

     

    A: 80

    B: 27

    C: 14

    D: 0

    Lost: 9+1

    +12.49

     

     

     

     

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

     

    A: 80

    B: 27

    C: 14

    D: 0

    Lost: 9+1

    +12.49

     

     

     

     

     

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 7:27 AM ET #210

    Quote Originally Posted by yanks21x:

    astros reds under series? nats phillies over series? mets braves over series? cardinals marlins under series? not sure why i even ask but just wondering your opinion... chasing can get scary real quick... and i find myself just jumping off if i am already up for the week... too scared to take that one big loss to wipe out a lot of wins...

     

    Haha. Looking for some action despite my failings? :)

     

    I got:

    Astros @Red Under - basically, due to solid pitching on both sides, but a very bad ranking for CIN-Offense. Houston also stronger on the defensive end. You got that too, out of your gut feeling, so this could work out.

     

    Giants @Dodgers Under; Giants offense sucks. Dodgers Offense is solid but nothing more. 

     

    Marlins @Cardinals Under: Here we agree Marlins offense sucks, STL is just average in my rating defensively (and with the bat too - which should be ok to handle for MIA-Pitching) but good enough to play strong against the Marlins.

     

    Red Sox @Twins Over: Both solid on defense, but offense is above averange for both and that could / should add up for high scoring games.

     

    Royals @Mariners Over: Royals below average on both sides of the ball, but offense is a tick stronger. Mariners WAY better with the ball as with pitching.

     

    Regarding the two questions open:

    Nats v Phillies: Both average on both sides. Nats on both sides a little above, Phillies below. I don't think that the Nats-Pitching will falter and their down Offense should be better as the Phillies-Pitching but not by a broad margin. I wouldn't touch this series.

     

    Braves v Mets: Mets are nearly total average, Braves are better on offense than on defense. So the trend is okay. Summed up, I got powerranking of +5 on offense, +2 on Defense and I need difference of 5 to make a call. Anyhow: No clear Veto, BOL if you go for it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yanks21x:

    astros reds under series? nats phillies over series? mets braves over series? cardinals marlins under series? not sure why i even ask but just wondering your opinion... chasing can get scary real quick... and i find myself just jumping off if i am already up for the week... too scared to take that one big loss to wipe out a lot of wins...

     

    Haha. Looking for some action despite my failings? :)

     

    I got:

    Astros @Red Under - basically, due to solid pitching on both sides, but a very bad ranking for CIN-Offense. Houston also stronger on the defensive end. You got that too, out of your gut feeling, so this could work out.

     

    Giants @Dodgers Under; Giants offense sucks. Dodgers Offense is solid but nothing more. 

     

    Marlins @Cardinals Under: Here we agree Marlins offense sucks, STL is just average in my rating defensively (and with the bat too - which should be ok to handle for MIA-Pitching) but good enough to play strong against the Marlins.

     

    Red Sox @Twins Over: Both solid on defense, but offense is above averange for both and that could / should add up for high scoring games.

     

    Royals @Mariners Over: Royals below average on both sides of the ball, but offense is a tick stronger. Mariners WAY better with the ball as with pitching.

     

    Regarding the two questions open:

    Nats v Phillies: Both average on both sides. Nats on both sides a little above, Phillies below. I don't think that the Nats-Pitching will falter and their down Offense should be better as the Phillies-Pitching but not by a broad margin. I wouldn't touch this series.

     

    Braves v Mets: Mets are nearly total average, Braves are better on offense than on defense. So the trend is okay. Summed up, I got powerranking of +5 on offense, +2 on Defense and I need difference of 5 to make a call. Anyhow: No clear Veto, BOL if you go for it.

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 9:57 AM ET #211

    Angels, Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays will be A-Bets today.

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    Angels, Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays will be A-Bets today.

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 11:10 AM ET #212

    Angels @Blue Jays (A): Pena - Jackson: 1.90 to win 1.00

    Astros @Reds (A): Miley - Castillo: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Athletics v Orioles (A): Fiers - Cashner: 2.90 to win 1.00

    Braves v Mets (A): Soroka - Wheeler: 1.84 to win 1.00

    Brewers @Padres (A): Chacin - Lucchesi: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Cardinals v Marlins (A): Mikolas - Hernandez: 2.63 to win 1.00

    Dodgers v Giants (A): Maeda - Beede: 3.12 to win 1.00

    Nationals v Phillies (A): Corbin - Arrieta: 1.65 to win 1.00

    Rays @Yankees (A): Chirinos - Tanaka: 0.88 to win 1.00

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    Angels @Blue Jays (A): Pena - Jackson: 1.90 to win 1.00

    Astros @Reds (A): Miley - Castillo: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Athletics v Orioles (A): Fiers - Cashner: 2.90 to win 1.00

    Braves v Mets (A): Soroka - Wheeler: 1.84 to win 1.00

    Brewers @Padres (A): Chacin - Lucchesi: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Cardinals v Marlins (A): Mikolas - Hernandez: 2.63 to win 1.00

    Dodgers v Giants (A): Maeda - Beede: 3.12 to win 1.00

    Nationals v Phillies (A): Corbin - Arrieta: 1.65 to win 1.00

    Rays @Yankees (A): Chirinos - Tanaka: 0.88 to win 1.00

     
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 11:59 AM ET #213

    am such a degenerate... but i thank you for this... hoping you have an awesome season and help me finish in the green... and i will definitely offer to paypal you something...

    the totals are tempting. it seems like it could work but also may not... it just gets boring sometimes when no action lmao...

     

    ummmm your lines are normally much better, i don't know if you realize but you got some really bad lines today... like very bad

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    am such a degenerate... but i thank you for this... hoping you have an awesome season and help me finish in the green... and i will definitely offer to paypal you something...

    the totals are tempting. it seems like it could work but also may not... it just gets boring sometimes when no action lmao...

     

    ummmm your lines are normally much better, i don't know if you realize but you got some really bad lines today... like very bad

     
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 12:01 PM ET #214

    angels -190 for you, i got -155

    athletics -290 for you, i got -235  for two examples...

    you always had better lines than me... maybe too early to bet? i dont know much about line movement...

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    angels -190 for you, i got -155

    athletics -290 for you, i got -235  for two examples...

    you always had better lines than me... maybe too early to bet? i dont know much about line movement...

     
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 12:02 PM ET #215

    as i say i can't imagine betting an over under 8... so honestly i may just skip it, but i must say yankees are an over team and their pitching is nothing special...

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    as i say i can't imagine betting an over under 8... so honestly i may just skip it, but i must say yankees are an over team and their pitching is nothing special...

     
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 3:14 PM ET #216

    Had a spontaneous bookiechange today, since I was excluded by my old one. Still waiting for reasons, they simply paid all my money out and thats it. 

    New one applies the german gambling tax in combination with bad odds. Yet, I wanted to post something here. Looking for a mid- and longterm solution right now, but this was the quickest to be able to post something and stay in the game. 

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    Had a spontaneous bookiechange today, since I was excluded by my old one. Still waiting for reasons, they simply paid all my money out and thats it. 

    New one applies the german gambling tax in combination with bad odds. Yet, I wanted to post something here. Looking for a mid- and longterm solution right now, but this was the quickest to be able to post something and stay in the game. 

     
    yanks21x
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2019 - 11:18 PM ET #217

    astros reds under series?   winner

    nats phillies over series? postponed

    mets braves over series? winner

    cardinals marlins under series? winner

     

    damn but I didn't go for it... so up in the air with this... if too many go deep into series I would not be fully able to chase. I only am betting 25 as a unit with 1k as balance

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    astros reds under series?   winner

    nats phillies over series? postponed

    mets braves over series? winner

    cardinals marlins under series? winner

     

    damn but I didn't go for it... so up in the air with this... if too many go deep into series I would not be fully able to chase. I only am betting 25 as a unit with 1k as balance

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 1:51 AM ET #218

    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Angels @Blue Jays (A): Pena - Jackson: 1.90 to win 1.00

    Astros @Reds (A): Miley - Castillo: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Athletics v Orioles (A): Fiers - Cashner: 2.90 to win 1.00

    Braves v Mets (A): Soroka - Wheeler: 1.84 to win 1.00

    Brewers @Padres (A): Chacin - Lucchesi: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Cardinals v Marlins (A): Mikolas - Hernandez: 2.63 to win 1.00

    Dodgers v Giants (A): Maeda - Beede: 3.12 to win 1.00

    Nationals v Phillies (A): Corbin - Arrieta: 1.65 to win 1.00

    Rays @Yankees (A): Chirinos - Tanaka: 0.88 to win 1.00

     

    Nats still a play due to double header on Wednesday

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Angels @Blue Jays (A): Pena - Jackson: 1.90 to win 1.00

    Astros @Reds (A): Miley - Castillo: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Athletics v Orioles (A): Fiers - Cashner: 2.90 to win 1.00

    Braves v Mets (A): Soroka - Wheeler: 1.84 to win 1.00

    Brewers @Padres (A): Chacin - Lucchesi: 1.06 to win 1.00

    Cardinals v Marlins (A): Mikolas - Hernandez: 2.63 to win 1.00

    Dodgers v Giants (A): Maeda - Beede: 3.12 to win 1.00

    Nationals v Phillies (A): Corbin - Arrieta: 1.65 to win 1.00

    Rays @Yankees (A): Chirinos - Tanaka: 0.88 to win 1.00

     

    Nats still a play due to double header on Wednesday

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 1:53 AM ET #219

    Dbacks v Rockies will be a play.

     

    Also strong Over-series in my ratings.

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    Dbacks v Rockies will be a play.

     

    Also strong Over-series in my ratings.

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 5:25 AM ET #220

    A: 84

    B: 27 (4 running)

    C: 14

    D: 0

    Lost: 9+1

    +10.37

     

     

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    A: 84

    B: 27 (4 running)

    C: 14

    D: 0

    Lost: 9+1

    +10.37

     

     

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 5:41 AM ET #221

    Just for your info:

    I just run a check on just playing A&B-Bets: +23.78 so far..

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    Just for your info:

    I just run a check on just playing A&B-Bets: +23.78 so far..

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 5:46 AM ET #222

    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Just for your info: I just run a check on just playing A&B-Bets: +23.78 so far..

     

    Hm. I have to check again. I got too many losses in their in my count.

    Having 112 winning bets in my quick and dirty sheet is okay, seeing that I should have 84+27=111. In the end, it's just to get an idea.

    But 27 (Losing A-Bets)+14+9 = 50 doesn't add up with the 78 Losing results I got. So.. I will run it again, with a little more time, but shouldn't get worse 

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

    Just for your info: I just run a check on just playing A&B-Bets: +23.78 so far..

     

    Hm. I have to check again. I got too many losses in their in my count.

    Having 112 winning bets in my quick and dirty sheet is okay, seeing that I should have 84+27=111. In the end, it's just to get an idea.

    But 27 (Losing A-Bets)+14+9 = 50 doesn't add up with the 78 Losing results I got. So.. I will run it again, with a little more time, but shouldn't get worse 

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 8:00 AM ET #223

    My mistake. 

    I lost 55 A-Bets (27+14+9 + some open), and 23 B-Bets. So it adds up.

     

    A-Bets are 84-55 +10.76

    B-Bets are just 27-23 +0.76

    C-Bets are 14-9 +35.48

    D-Bets 0-2 -37.15, so lets forget them REALLY quick ;)

     

    Ttoals +9.85, so some difference to the 10.37 I got here, but at the moment I'm not motivated to search for the mistake :) Seems like one game I got in another way here, probably an A-Bet Dog that lost. 

    On the other hand: Let now a couple of those win, and we are good.

     

     

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    My mistake. 

    I lost 55 A-Bets (27+14+9 + some open), and 23 B-Bets. So it adds up.

     

    A-Bets are 84-55 +10.76

    B-Bets are just 27-23 +0.76

    C-Bets are 14-9 +35.48

    D-Bets 0-2 -37.15, so lets forget them REALLY quick ;)

     

    Ttoals +9.85, so some difference to the 10.37 I got here, but at the moment I'm not motivated to search for the mistake :) Seems like one game I got in another way here, probably an A-Bet Dog that lost. 

    On the other hand: Let now a couple of those win, and we are good.

     

     

     
    Thasian
    Thasian
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 8:04 AM ET #224

    With the Nats beating the Mets in G4 (that bad beat, you remember?) D-Bets would be up +4.57

    If the Dbacks would have won game D -10.46.

     

    So I won't stop playing D, just because of that. Just looks very bad at the moment.

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    With the Nats beating the Mets in G4 (that bad beat, you remember?) D-Bets would be up +4.57

    If the Dbacks would have won game D -10.46.

     

    So I won't stop playing D, just because of that. Just looks very bad at the moment.

     
     
    yanks21x
    yanks21x
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2019 - 2:23 PM ET #225

    got ya... when things go like this on current series i question, chasing dogs could work lol... one big fav and season will be over :(

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    got ya... when things go like this on current series i question, chasing dogs could work lol... one big fav and season will be over :(

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