Kreatture's Playbook 2011

drknow 

Cheers 

MLB EARLY (all lines Pinnacle)

4* Boston Red Sox -1 (+102)  

2* Washington/NY Mets UNDER 7.5 (-113)

2* Oakland/Minnesota UNDER 8 (-104)

3* San Francisco Giants -1 (-118)

Don't be surprised if Boston sweeps NY this weekend.. might not happen, but just don't be surprised if it does.

Will have late games posted later.. looks like 3 plays right now.

No need to wait any longer on these 2 late plays..

MLB NIGHTCAP

5* Florida Marlins (-111)

5* Cincinnati Reds (-114)

As I mentioned on Twitter last night, I'm out to a Breast Cancer Charity Event for the evening/night.. have a great night, see you tomorrow .

Cheers 

Kreatture,

Why do you play a +175 at a 2* rather that risking enough to win 2*?  I don't see how that would benefit you in the long run because you are risking alot on a pretty big underdog?

Mtp104

Kreatture,

Now I understand what your are saying.  I'm saying that since you capped that game at a different price wouldnt it make more sense to get the value you thought you had?  Meaning it would make more sense to have your to win amount be 2* while only risking roughly 70 or so.  It doesnt seem practical?  You are getting a good underdog at a great price why not get even more value by having to risk less in order to win your normal 2* wager.  Obviously,  I keep thinking conservatively!!  That could be the difference between a winning day and losing day more times than not!  We always look for value in this business and by risking less to win your normal 2* in my opinion seems to make sense.  Just a thought.  Making conversation.   Good luck Kreatture!

Mtp

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



Mtp,

I'm sure you already know this, so this explanation is more for everyone else, just so you don't think I'm talking down to you about this.

Cheers 


Maximize your wins.. it doesn't matter if the Dog is +110, or +400, it shouldn't change your perception of whether you think they can win or not. This is why you should create your own lines of what the number should really be, before you even look at what the oddsmakers come out at. I hope that makes sense..

If you look at a line first and see +250, you think "Wow, big underdog, not much chance there.." and it affects your own perception before you even begin handicapping the game. Subconsciously, you're already giving the big favorite an edge, before you even begin to break down any numbers. Then even if you do find something which supports a play on the Dog you'll often pass because you think you must have missed something if the line is that high. This is a big reason why the public usually backs the favorite.. if they don't really know which side has the edge, they look and see one side favored and automatically assume that favorite must be the better option, which often isn't the case.

My plays here for MLB will range from 2* to 5* as I'm sure you've all noticed. The Jays are the better Overall Team (according to my own rankings) and even tho LA had the clear edge in SP today, the rest of the factors were +EV at worst for Toronto.. therefore, when I created my line it was a lot lower than the +175 being given to them. It was a Value spot and qualified for a 2* play, even tho I know I won't win this game 40% of the time.. but at +175 I don't need to be right 40%.

It took a career best 15K effort by Weaver to get the job done, and he exceeded expectations. I'll make the play again tomorrow if the numbers support it.

Cheers 

Mick.. I just had a lengthy write-up of who I liked and why, but I deleted it all.. purposely. Been watchin a lot of MLB highlights this week and unfortunately kept the channel on while they have been discussing the NHL Playoffs, too. Should never do this, cuz these TV "Experts" don't really have a clue of what's goin on and who's goin to win.. but they all can make a successful argument on why this team & that team will win it all..

So I could make a good argument here on why I think Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Vancouver, San Jose or Anaheim are going to win the Cup.. but it would really be useless. We saw last year that anything can happen - and probably will. The obvious pick is Vancouver, but really what fun is that?

I'll take Boston over Anaheim.. for fun. (Unless Crosby comes back in the 2nd Round, in which case I'll take Pittsburgh to win)

For Business, I'll be wagering on individual games, rather than series. Those picks will be posted and Units kept separate from the ongoing MLB.

Also Mick, to answer the specific question of Nashville, Tampa, & Montreal.. I LOVE Anaheim, Pittsburgh, & Boston.. so much so that they would actually be the Top 3 series I'm most confident in, along with Vancouver over Chicago (In the order of Boston, Vancouver, Anaheim, Pittsburgh).

Good Luck if you decide to pull the trigger on any of them. 

4-3 yesterday for +0.15 Units.. Blue Jays really let me down & SD had great chances to win it in the 9th & 10th, before gettin hammered in the 11th. Tampa Bay & Arizona were nice winners to get.

MLB 2011 +0.84

NHL PLAYOFFS 2011  +0

3* Texas Rangers (+122)

More later, just had to get this one out there before it starts. Rangers lose once and suddenly they're Dogs to Scherzer?? No Hamilton, but no Ordonez for Tigers today. Great Value, win or lose.

Let's add the Under for this one, too.. confirmed!

4* Texas/Detroit Under 9 (-108)

+2 to start the day, now c'mon Jays..

MLB What-Up Wednesday

2* Baltimore Orioles (+161)

2* San Diego Padres (+104)

2* Washington Nationals TT Under 3 (-114)

2* Florida Marlins (+116)

3* Houston Astros (-106)

3* San Francisco Giants -1 (+102)

NHL PLAYOFFS

4* Vancouver Canucks -0.5 (-110) (regulation) (Game 1)

2* Anaheim Ducks (-138) (OT included) (Game 1)

2* NY Rangers/Washington Capitals Under 5 (+108) (Game 1)

Cheers 

Oops, +1 after Texas game.. I had them as 2* play but wrote 3 here so it will go for a -3.

I'm out for the evening, enjoy the games