Kreatture's Playbook 2011

Billy Walters has made all the money in the World, yes, but you think he's just going to give it all back? He's still right way more often than he's wrong..

He took a soak on the Over last night, but he also buried UConn ML.. something I unfortunately did not find out until this morning.

Here's a pretty cool story about him and the group he was in. It's a very long read, like a short story really, but if you are looking for an interesting story take the time.

Billy Walters & the Story of the Computer Group

TheRIZZ..

I apologize if you felt offended by my comments.. you're making your "Chasing" work with a good Money Management and I commend you for it. But I reserve the right to still not think it's good to pay heavy juice and Chase of any sort.

Keep up the good work 

Read this.. you might learn something.. this isn't my work. It's long so will probably take a few posts..

========================

I might have to start making this a "I'm mad as hell and
I'm not going to take it anymore" Friday rant page.

Has everyone completely lost their mind?

It's not too often lately that I have time to comb the
forums to see what the level of insanity is these days but
not being able to sleep sometimes (numbers keep floating
through my head...MLB T-6 days) I decided to take a few
minutes to see what people were coming up with and I'll tell
you I nearly threw up!

6 GAME CHASES? ARE YOU F**KING KIDDING ME? (Pardon my french)

Do you have any idea the level of stupidity a 6 game chase
represents? I mean...lets get right to the meat of it. A
six game chase looks real cool for the guy in the forum who
can say "My record in MLB 2011 was 150-1." Yea and the problem is that the "1" loss just wiped out the entire years worth of CASH?

Don't you think if "chasing" were the answer that a guy like
Billy Walters would have been doing that long ago? Oh wait,
Billy Walters sucks right....he only wins 58% of the time.

So then it hit me. The reason people chase is because they've been given this completely skewed idea of the reality of gambling and sports investors no longer understand that it's ok to lose a game every now and then. Losing is part of investing and as a matter of fact it's usually how you deal with your losses that will determine if you fail or succeed.

It's unfortunate but a lot of this mentality of lying or let's say
"spinning reality" can be directly attributed to JM. You guys all know who that is? In case you don't or aren't aware...JM didn't hang the moon in the sky. He didn't invent any of the things he's sold....he stole them and made a lot of money. People were using and making a lot of money on the NBA (east / west) program and the (sweep chase) in MLB for at least 4 years prior to his bastardizing of the whole thing but the reason I bring this up is because no matter how good you think your chase is.....It's unfortunately going to end bloody.

In the summer of 2008 the MLB "sweep chase" had 7 losses. That's right 7 losses. After the 7th loss a real class act like JM
decided to come up with a filter and then magically erase those 7 losses but I was on the other end of the phone with grown men who were in tears and that's no bullshit. People who had built $100,000 bankrolls were down to 5 or 6k asking me...begging me to help them find a way to get their money back.

Let's take John Hedgepath for example. Seems to be a nice guy, wants his people to win and even went back to doing it for free but in the past week he had 4, count em...4 ..3 game chase losses and I don't know everything about his program but a few of my members get his stuff and he was playing some pretty steep moneylines so 4 chase losses is complete disaster.

Then there was an acquaintance of mine who was up a cool 2 million at the Hilton last summer going into September 1st. Was playing a 4 game chase and guess what? Had 3 losses in September and by the 27th of September had ZERO dollars. From 2 MILLION to ZERO. One day he boasted to me that he can bet ANYTHING he wants at the Hilton.... to which my reply was "You must be a huge loser." Sportsbooks don't
let winners bet whatever they want but they'll give a "chaser" a free pass because they know....if you have enough rope... you'll hang yourself.

Think about that.....2 MILLION DOLLARS lost in 27 days chasing.

(cont'd)

(cont'd)..

The reality is that 97% of the people who follow these various chases online don't even have the bankroll to bet game 2 let alone 3, 4, 5, or 6. They just like the comradery of putting their 2 cents in on the thread and cheering on the guy who has less money than them claiming to be a millionaire from their 6 game chase.

IF YOU CHASE YOU'LL LOSE. Maybe not today...maybe not tomorrow or next month but it will ALWAYS get you in the end.

Again, I ask....If chasing were so good don't you think the single most feared guy in the entire sports wagering world (Billy Walters) would be doing it? He's not. Anyone who puts out 10, 20, 30 or more units on a game to get their losses and profit 1 unit is INSANE.

So back to my point. We as sports investors have completely forgot how to lose and it's not all your fault. If you're new to all this and the only thing you ever hear is that....JM is 1 million wins no losses and he put the moon on it's axis and some other guy is 120 wins and no losses on his 15 game chase...you start to believe and start to think that winning 58% of your games overall is no good.

Every day you probably get an email from some guy who says he went 6-0 yesterday and he "guarantees" to do the same today.....so as bettors you're flooded with this idea that these things are the norm when the truth is they just don't exist.

In all my research, and believe me I do probably more than any, I've only found 2 bets...EVER that hit 70% + for entire seasons. My Top 10 group plays these wagers but even they are NICHE bets that only 1 or 2 sportsbooks will even consistently give you a line on. There is a reason that
the Vegas books wouldn't allow you to make these wagers.

So as sports investors let's challenge ourselves to be above the bullshit and look at reality. In order to win you need two things.

1. YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO MANAGE YOUR MONEY
2. YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO PICK A FEW WINNERS.

There is a reason that picking games in 2nd and that's because it's the 2nd most important part of the equasion. If you can't manage your money you're toast anyway so picking winners won't matter.

This brings me to the Labourchere. 3 years ago when I suggested to a few people on covers that they should look at the Labourchere as a solid way to manage their money, I had no idea that it would change the entire culture of sports wagering. Of anything that I've ever done I'm probably most proud of that because it made people who were stone cold chasers actually think that there might be another way.

Over the years I've tried to adjust and research and modify the basic principles of the labourchere to always make it's uses better for sports investors. But just like chasers, labourchere people have sometimes lost their mind (and bankroll) completely unnecessarily.

THE LABOURCHERE IS A MONEY MANAGEMENT TOOL!!! IT'S A GUIDELINE...not an exact thing to follow. Everyone wants to sports invest like a group of robots. They want a perfect system and a money management method where they don't have to think......and again....it doesn't exist.

To use the labourchere most effectively you need a few things.

1. Your base wager needs to be at about 1% of your bankroll.
2. A system OR the ability to pick games that aren't super streaky.
3. Ideally you're playing with odds of less than -130

Those are the IDEAL conditions but certainly the labourchere can apply to nearly every situation.

PLEASE pay attention. I also would now recommend that you set BET SIZE LIMITS. This is important. I always thought of it as kind of common sense but reading the emails I get...it's anything but that.

You should limit your wager size to 2 or 3 times your base wager. Period.

Let me give you an example.....Let's say you are using the labourchere and your first 4 wagers are losses so your lines would look like....

10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10-20
10-10-10-10-20-30
10-10-10-10-20-30-40

If your base wager is about 1% of your bankroll you'll still be fine but if you run into a cold streak.....stretch you line out if you need to.....you could do this.....

10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10-20
10-10-10-10-15-15-20
10-10-10-10-15-15-20-30
10-10-10-10-15-15-20-20-20-30

Notice that after the 3rd loss instead of putting a
30 on the end of the line I split it into 2 "15's"

Now I will inevitably get the email from someone complaining
that by stretching the lines its going to take longer for you to
recover your losses.

SO WHAT!

I'm in it for the LONG HAUL. So what if this season I make 50 units in NBA instead of 75. Guess what? You would have never made the 75 units anyway because 1 bad streak would have broke your bankroll.

In the long run nothing matters if you hit a bad run with whatever system you use and you bust out your bankroll....you'll never make the hot streak if you're out so remember....there is flexibility in the labourchere..
it's a GUIDELINE.

The best example for me using labourchere is NHL. This season the NHL program that I posted on this blog last year is up somewhere around 60 units at this point and the irony is that our overall win % is somewhere in the mid 40's. Say that back to yourself... those of you who are so caught up on "what's your record?" If I said "our program is real solid...we hit 44% winners this year" Not so inspiring until you see that we're up 60 units on that.

People email me all the time and they ask ..."What's your record" and they're always surprised to get the response of
"I don't know and don't care" but I can tell you we are up
nearly 60 units in NHL and 35 ish in NBA so we are closing
in on 100 + units for these two sports. In my mind, that's what
matters. If I'm a $20 player...how much MONEY would I make with your program.

So as we move towards MLB 2011 I challenge those of you who follow this blog to think outside the box. If you have to chase go 2 game max on the chase.......Use common sense and protect your bankroll. STOP THE INSANITY!

Forget about what people say their record is. MLB brings out the worst of those types of people. You'll see that Handicapper Joe Blow has a 30-15 record in MLB and you think that's great until you get his plays and realize that he's playing -230 favs and 30-15 is actually DOWN 5 units.
Be smarter than that! Realize the only record that matters is
your bank statement. Do you have more this month than last?

Everyone have a great weekend and soon I'll figure out what I'm going to post on here for MLB 2011

To Your Success,

Tod Wilkinson

The above is FREE information from a PROFESSIONAL on his FREE Blog.. Info can be found everywhere online, you just need to know where to look. A few of you already know about PSIC and Tod and no doubt have nothing but good things to say about him. Like he said, he is the reason the Labourchere is on Covers here. All those links everyone always posts about the Lab Money Management System are always linked to his info.

I hope he doesn't mind me posting this here, but I am obviously not going to drill it into anyone's head myself about this topic. It's free info, so I don't think he'll mind, and it's good info.

So read it.. and if you still want to Chase, read it again. Read it until your head finally understands what it says. I'll wait..

Link to last year's spreadsheet for the Runline/Criss-Cross Blitz System.. the 1st page, MASTER RECORD, shows the System, Week-by-Week, & Monthly Breakdown

MLB 2010 Master Spreadsheet

+45.35 Units.. despite an 80 unit Chase Loss on a 4-game sweep by Baltimore over Texas in July, and ending early on August 8th when I moved and did not have internet access for the next 2 weeks so could not continue. Too bad, cuz August is always the best month and I feel I still would have hit a total of 80-90 Units with the remaining games.

This is why I don't care when people say I have produced nothing but losing threads on here.. I have the DOCUMENTED PROOF which backs up everything I say. Let the haters continue their efforts, cuz they have nothing to stand behind.

How bout some more FREE info for you guys.. It's a lot to digest today but I know someone will benefit from all this at least.. All I can do is pass along what I'm hearing and learning and hope it sinks in.. let the haters hate, I'm too busy for that nonsense, I wish everyone great luck on beating their books!

"You will make plenty of mistakes in this racket, it's part of learning..But the key to eventually being successful is NOT repeating them and thinking the outcome will be different this time. You have to take your lumps and earn your education and really ask yourself... WHY am I betting sports?? And if you are really honest with yourself, then you will do things more and more that truly support that answer. If it was easy, NOBODY would be working a job when they could simply bet sports, but if you are willing to grind and learn to win & lose.. It's one of the most beatable markets because it's so much more inefficient than any other because there's more unsavvy money invested daily. Brokers I know say the financial market has become more inefficient ever since all those investment sites popped up where you can day trade, because unsavvy investors infiltrated Wall St. Fortunately in our market, people love to bet sports who don't understand it's about a NUMBER.

I plan on starting daily videos, and doing more pod-casts and Newsletters where I won't hold anything back and really open the curtain.. In fact, I'm doing a video or 2 with Stelios later today where we plan on really sharing insight never before shared in this racket..

We sat down last night and said F*ck It, let's really tell it like it is & share those things that no wiseguys have ever talked about before, and I can promise you, most bettors are going to be shocked at what goes on behind the scenes and how those who make money really do it..

It's ONLY about the Number and beating the move..Meaning, getting the best of it as much as you possibly can before it moves.. Then, knowing which lines are so out of whack that you can actually still bet it after it moves. But for that you have to be so selective..

Bottom Line - if you can predict which way it's going to move, and get your money down at the best number, then over time you'll make money.. but if you keep getting the worst of it, by thinking your handicapping shows you can still bet it, you'll never make money laying 11 to win 10.

The internet has changed the game.. Back in the day, it was a few betting syndicates ruling everything. These days, wiseguys are solo too.. There's individuals out there that get it and make money without working with Outfits, because info is more readily available unlike before.

As you will see in the vids, we knew about weather/injury/ect. before it influenced the price. These days that's hard to do so. Games changed and now it's simply become about Beating the Move.. and getting the most money down on those positions that are most out of whack.. And taking monsta positions on those very few numbers that still offer value simply because perception has allowed it. It's that simple.

There are just way too many "bettor misconceptions" that have been believed for so long, that most just take them as fact, when they aren't.

(cont'd)..

(cont'd)..

"Perfect example.."Flat Betting the Same Amounts"..Sure, that's the safe way not to get killed and overcome fluctuations.. but in the real world, that don't make market sense or financial sense, because how can EVERY position taken offer you the same Value ??

And the way you make money is by knowing how much Value a position offers, then betting accordingly. They can't all offer the same value !!

Now the industry tells you differently..But this is why I come back so many times even 30min before game to let you know it's an UPGRADE..

Obviously I have to try and help my guys stay disciplined and practice proper money management which is what I do with Unit Distribution, but with that said, if I bet $100 on every play, then it's going to be pretty damn tough to make any real money or make it worth doing..

You won't overcome fluctuations by flat betting and you will leave money on the table as well. Unfortunately, too many bettors get themselves in trouble by trying to do it the right way, only because they can't truly identify actual "intrinsic value" and how that changes as the lines move. Back when we were starting out we didn't know shit compared to today's bettors. You guys have so much education & info available to you.

Allright.. I have to get some work done.."

From the mouth of Vegas' #1 Documented Capper last year. Hope you enjoyed reading everything today, back later with some MLB plays.

Cheers 

MLB 5*

Arizona Team Total OVER 4 (-108)

Starts at 2:20pm EST

I have read Tod's stuff for years!  I completely agree with his style although I like to hit a higher % than 45.  Very good form of  money management in the right hands!

MLB 3*

Seattle/Texas UNDER 8 (-126) (Pinnacle)

Some 8's can still be found altho a lot of books have moved to 7.5.

1* .. 1 Unit

5* .. 5 Unit

I personally wouldn't, but that's just me.. reason being I'm not usually interested in laying Chalk AGAINST the best (maybe second to Halladay at worst) pitcher in baseball. If anything I would be more inclined to wager Seattle (+110) for the Value.. but I don't trust their bats at all, so the Under is my strongest play.

Good Luck

Couldn't squeeze that last inning in, damn.

4 late plays, that's it.

2* SF Giants (-135)

2* Philadelphia RL -1.5 (+151)

3* Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+122)

2* Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+104)

Leavin right now for the evening, have a good night 

+6.68 Units in the night games, -3.78 from the afternoon game.

+2.9 Units on the day.. +5 Units the day before.

Good start to MLB. Loooooooong Season ahead.. let the grind begin.

MLB EARLY 2*

Oakland/Toronto UNDER 8 (-105) (Pinnacle)

If you guys have access to multiple Books.. free money chance as of a few minutes ago, don't know how long will stay at these lines..

NYM +1.5 (+120)  BetUS

Philly -1.5 (+100) Bodog

MLB 2*

Colorado/Pittsburgh OVER 8 (-104) (Pinnacle)

MLB 5*

Detroit/Baltimore UNDER 9 (-111)

Get it before it's juiced to hell.. beat the Move.

MLB 5*

Detroit/Baltimore UNDER 9 (-111) (Pinnacle)

Get it before it's juiced to hell.. beat the Move.

Kreatture:  Time,  numbers,  value,  that's right.                      90% of these people don't get it, conserve your energy.

1-1-1 for -3.55 yesterday.. Detroit has a pretty good team this year but will never be a contender as long as they are continually poorly coached. Same story, different year.

MLB 2011 +4.35