Posted:
#1
I've been holding off starting this due to the fact my Blog isn't fully ready to launch yet, and I really want to associate it with this thread. I really enjoy writing and would enjoy this a lot more if I was able to create something more than just a common thread on a web forum (altho I really love Covers and think it's a great site), but the Blog probably won't be ready til the new year. I also didn't believe I was going to allocate the funds for this until the new year, but that changed today. So I've decided to at least open the thread right now.
Now I know a lot of people have been waiting for this, and I appreciate all the kind comments via PM, but I do have this to say..
I know I've been giving a few guys a hard time around here lately, and that probably won't change. It's 100% to do with the way they run things tho, and not really anything to do with their actual picks. No one is learning a damn thing from these guys about how to become better handicappers, or how to better manage their bankroll.
That being said, I am just like any other poster on here - meaning I'll make many losing picks alongside my winners. I am not a Professional at this yet so if you decide to tail my plays, you agree you are doing so at your own risk. I have never run a thread quite like this one. One thing you know you can count on tho with me is a very clear layout and a dedicated professionalism. Anyone who followed me in MLB and remembers my spreadsheets already has an idea of what to expect from me. Those threads are posted on the "My Space" page of my profile for anyone who wants to take a look.. I've also posted an unsuccessful NHL Playoff Thread (thanks to the Montreal Canadians last year), just to let you know I am human. I've been around here for over 2 1/2 years now and have learned a lot about this Business, and I plan on learning a lot more..
The style of this thread will run similarly to that of dj_destroyer's in regards to bankroll management. It's a combination of Unit Betting with the Kelly Criterion. It is also the proper way to run your bankroll. When you wager the same amount on all your plays (known as Flat Betting), you are leaving money on the table and the Books love that. You have to hit a much higher percentage to really make a lot of money. Flat Betting is also recommended for inexperienced bettors who are either just starting out or are not too confident in distinguishing the value of their plays. There will be none of that here.
By setting up the bankroll like this, you can play with any amount of money you desire. Whether you want to start with $500, or $5000, the only difference is going to be the dollar value of the amount you win. The % will still be the same.
Many of you know I respect DJ as much as anyone around here, so this is in no way a "competition" thread to his. We've actually discussed the thoughts of me starting this, and I'm sure he will enjoy this, as I will continue to with his. Who knows, maybe we'll have a "friendly" competition sometime down the road (maybe a March Madness pool or something). I'm sure it would be good for not only our own motivation, but for the excitement of the Forum. For now, we'll both continue our own assault and attempts (if I may borrow from dj here) to Destroy the Books!
There's no set goal for this thread other than to make money. Climb, learn, climb higher. There will be cash-outs (hopefully!) whenever I feel fit to do so, but will never cash-out below the initial amount.
Altho the money management is laid out the same as DJ's, the picks will not. I'll play any event where I see value (dj is good at this, too), as well as the odd teaser or small parley. Limiting yourself to only playing Dogs or low odds is just plain silly. You need to recognize value on Favorites, too, in order to maximize your money.
And I'm not sure how well I'll be able to incorporate Live Wagering into this, due to how fast it operates and how small a window there usually is when making a play, but we'll see how it goes. For nights when I plan on being home and set up to Live Wager an event, I'll give notice. The windows are small tho, but there's always a Game Plan going into the Event, so I'll handle that as it comes up.
There will be one identifiable theme to this thread, and I'm adopting the first part from my favorite NHL team - Los Angeles Kings:
Now I know a lot of people have been waiting for this, and I appreciate all the kind comments via PM, but I do have this to say..
I know I've been giving a few guys a hard time around here lately, and that probably won't change. It's 100% to do with the way they run things tho, and not really anything to do with their actual picks. No one is learning a damn thing from these guys about how to become better handicappers, or how to better manage their bankroll.
That being said, I am just like any other poster on here - meaning I'll make many losing picks alongside my winners. I am not a Professional at this yet so if you decide to tail my plays, you agree you are doing so at your own risk. I have never run a thread quite like this one. One thing you know you can count on tho with me is a very clear layout and a dedicated professionalism. Anyone who followed me in MLB and remembers my spreadsheets already has an idea of what to expect from me. Those threads are posted on the "My Space" page of my profile for anyone who wants to take a look.. I've also posted an unsuccessful NHL Playoff Thread (thanks to the Montreal Canadians last year), just to let you know I am human. I've been around here for over 2 1/2 years now and have learned a lot about this Business, and I plan on learning a lot more..
The style of this thread will run similarly to that of dj_destroyer's in regards to bankroll management. It's a combination of Unit Betting with the Kelly Criterion. It is also the proper way to run your bankroll. When you wager the same amount on all your plays (known as Flat Betting), you are leaving money on the table and the Books love that. You have to hit a much higher percentage to really make a lot of money. Flat Betting is also recommended for inexperienced bettors who are either just starting out or are not too confident in distinguishing the value of their plays. There will be none of that here.
By setting up the bankroll like this, you can play with any amount of money you desire. Whether you want to start with $500, or $5000, the only difference is going to be the dollar value of the amount you win. The % will still be the same.
Many of you know I respect DJ as much as anyone around here, so this is in no way a "competition" thread to his. We've actually discussed the thoughts of me starting this, and I'm sure he will enjoy this, as I will continue to with his. Who knows, maybe we'll have a "friendly" competition sometime down the road (maybe a March Madness pool or something). I'm sure it would be good for not only our own motivation, but for the excitement of the Forum. For now, we'll both continue our own assault and attempts (if I may borrow from dj here) to Destroy the Books!
There's no set goal for this thread other than to make money. Climb, learn, climb higher. There will be cash-outs (hopefully!) whenever I feel fit to do so, but will never cash-out below the initial amount.
Altho the money management is laid out the same as DJ's, the picks will not. I'll play any event where I see value (dj is good at this, too), as well as the odd teaser or small parley. Limiting yourself to only playing Dogs or low odds is just plain silly. You need to recognize value on Favorites, too, in order to maximize your money.
And I'm not sure how well I'll be able to incorporate Live Wagering into this, due to how fast it operates and how small a window there usually is when making a play, but we'll see how it goes. For nights when I plan on being home and set up to Live Wager an event, I'll give notice. The windows are small tho, but there's always a Game Plan going into the Event, so I'll handle that as it comes up.
There will be one identifiable theme to this thread, and I'm adopting the first part from my favorite NHL team - Los Angeles Kings:
PRIDE = PASSION = POWER
POWER = MONEY
POWER = MONEY
Lastly, don't expect plays every day. Some days the board just simply doesn't offer any real value, and forcing picks just to have "action" is also just plain silly. If there's nothing good to invest in, then take the night off and do something else you enjoy. You'll be amazed at how fresh your mind stays and how less stressed you are on actual game nights.
Now.. just gotta avoid the initial posting curse! Oh, wait.. yeah.. I don't believe in that shit.
Have fun.
Cheers
Parker
Now.. just gotta avoid the initial posting curse! Oh, wait.. yeah.. I don't believe in that shit.
Have fun.
Cheers
Parker
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