Kreatture's Playbook 2011

that pacers ML would of almost been a brilliant pick if they didnt finish that game so terrible

We shall see.  He has been to the Cup Final, this is true, but he does not deal well with pressure.  If Nashville gets inside his head a bit, it could get ugly.  I see Kostitsyn as being a key player in this.  If he can run the net and yap it up, it might have the desired outcome.

This being said, I don't care a snail's fart for either of these teams.  They are both awful hockey markets, products of Bruce McNall's great experiment (read: cash grab)

Habs play another perfect road game.  Coulda been a shutout if not for Gomez' brain fart.  65/66 for Price, I believe.  Without Chara, they were very ordinary.

You have to think Thomas will sit next game, even if just to shake things up.  Gonna be crazy in Montreal come Monday night!

Disagree... it's tough to shake Emery. The guy has uber confidence which is exactly what a (relatively) new goalie needs. As a kid, he simply liked to fight a lot and get into it with anyone that wanted some, but I sincerely believe he's over that and just wants to play hockey. I talk to his girlfriend every now and then and even she is convinced that he is more focused and serious than he ever has been. If I had to chalk it up to one thing, I'd say his hip injury made him realize that he won't be able to play forever and he had better take advantage of his opportunities now while he still can. Like I said, if it wasn't for his off-ice issues; I think we'd be talking about a future HOFer and I'm not even exaggerating... the kid is just that good.

I do agree that his raw talent is off the charts.  Perhaps his stint in Russia taught him a thing or two, but he didn't look that sharp when he was with Philly.  Then again, Philly is not exactly the home of great goalies, at least since the days of Parent and Hextall.

Kreatture, you gotta be happy with the play of the Kings last night.  Great adjustment, they shot from the point all night and put plenty of traffic in front.  Quick looked sharp as well.  Stoll will be back next game, and I have no trouble believing that they could take both games in LA if they continue this style of play.

Late gettin around to postin on here today, plays were posted on Twitter earlier. Great day yesterday, will update numbers after & add comments..

MLB

2* Baltimore ML (+127)

NBA

2* Memphis/San Antonio Over 195 (-103)

MLB

2* Chicago Cubs (+106)

No Bobby Ryan in Nashville is gonna hurt.. Advantage Nashville now. I won't be playing a Side, Lean to Under but no play yet.. will post if do.

Bench Tim Thomas? The Vezina Winner? As much as you'd love to see it happen Mick, don't expect it.. I'm happy I've hit the Under in both games, makes up for the 4* Series loss I'm sure to endure.

I could not be more happy with the way LA played last night! It was a complete effort and I was surprised how little fight the Sharks put up. I thought they would at least come hard in the 3rd to set a tone going back to LA, but they were as soft as could be and wimpered out of the 3rd period. Every game will be a tough grind, but they're heading home with momentum at least.

Honestly, I don't want to see it.  Habs have an awful track record against the other team changing their goalie mid-way through the series.  But Thomas seems to be fighting the puck, not tracking it well.  He doesn't have a great track record in the playoffs, and Julien's job is on the line in this series.

BTW, he hasn't been annointed Vezina winner yet.  There's some decent competition out there, including Luongo and Price.

Nashville looks strong.  Ryan did a really dangerous skate stomp, I have no problem with him being suspended for two games.  Moves like that can end careers.

I hope people are OK with the hockey posts going on here.  I don't mind to send them as personal messages, if you feel it's cluttering the board.

It's fine Mick, it's my thread, don't mind the discussion at all. Thread seems to be getting a ton of views daily, not really sure why..

I'm fine with the Ryan 2-game suspension, as well. It's the right call. It sucks for Anaheim but that's the price the team has to pay when one person does something extremely stupid. The penalty to the team is huge and it just might cost them an early exit if Nashville takes these 2 at home. If Anaheim can get a split I still favor them after Ryan returns for Game 5.

Tomorrow's game in Montreal is going to be awesome, those fans will be over-the-top jacked, as you already know. I'm looking forward to see how it plays out.

I might head down to Montreal just to take in a game at a local pub/bar... the atmosphere will be electrifying all over the city.

Well, in that case, I'll add one more.  A link worth reading as Montreal preps for tomorrow night.  Mostly about Chara, but also goaltending issues and a couple of nice video clips

Hopefully the fans don't do stupid shit like last year.  Well, a few fans and a whole lot of idiots.  The Habs got sent the bill for the extra police presence required last year; curious to see how many boys in blue will be out tomorrow night.

https://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/how-sick-is-he

Rough weekend on the Bases.. a 2-10 run since Friday. 6 of those losses were 2*, and took the 2* plays from +10 Units to -1.. A case of playing too many games I didn't have my own head clearly in, in a tired state. MLB is such a long season and there will be many runs throughout the year of winning days, and losing days.

I've just completed a new spreadsheet for more detailed tracking purposes. I'll post the short data here, as well as a link after. NHL & NBA Playoffs off to outstanding starts.


MLB 2011     23-29-3     -16.95 Units

5*    2-4          -11.9
4*    4-3          +4.96
3*    3-7-2       -9.03
2*    14-15-1    -0.98


NHL 2011 PLAYOFFS     7-3-2     +11.78 Units

5*       
4*    1-0       +4
3*    2-1       +3.12
2*    4-2-2    +4.66


NBA 2011 PLAYOFFS     3-1     +5.91 Units

5*       
4*    1-0      +4
3*    1-1      -0.09
2*    1-0      +2



It's almost moving time.. Two weeks from tonight I'll be in my own brand new place, FINALLY! It's been a long time coming and I can't freaking wait. Then we really get down to Business..

Looking forward to DJ's new thread opening tomorrow.. Soon, The Evolution Truly Begins..

Time to get some sleep, at a decent time at that.. not going to let myself turn into a zombie again this week.

Cheers 

I recommend Hurley's, on Crescent.  Best Irish pub in the city.  It will be rocking.

Playbook Breakdown

Plays will still be posted here.. no need to go to the spreadsheet daily. It's just a tracking tool for myself. It's nothing fancy like my past work, just something quickly done up to keep things organized better.

Busy afternoon so won't have any plays until tonight.. NHL & MLB, possibly NBA.

Cheers 

MLB record includes +3.31 Units on Dog Plays only.. The small favs have been having some trouble, to the tune of about -19 Units.. no surprise since the Historical Trend is 'Play the Dogs' in April. You could play dogs blindly and turn a profit in this month.

Stats & Numbers become stronger as the Season goes on, and Dogs won't hit as often.. so we'll just keep plugging away as always.

I will have more time starting next month, is anyone interested in me running the RunLine or Criss-Cross Blitz, or the Top 5 Home Team System? Altho I won't personally be playing a Chase Style on them for real money, I can definitely set them up and keep track of the plays and results. There would have to be more than just a couple people interested for me to take the time to do this, so please either shoot me a quick PM or a quick post here saying Yes.

Cheers 

The MLB board looks sweet tonight.. lots of +$$ out there! Just headin home now, will post the plays in an hour or so.

"In NHL history when teams are tied 1-1, the game 3 road team has a series record of 48-46. Coinflip. But Game 3 in this situation is crucial.

When gm 3 road tm won gm 1 & lost gm 2 (SJ, Pitt), series record is 18-24 in 1st round. In Philly's situation, 1st round series rec is 30-22

Road team up 2-0 has a game 3 record of 8-16 (33%) in 1st round and 35-36 (49%) over all rounds. Not a large enough sample size for round 1"


Just passin on some good Info.. u good to have as many sources as Info as u can.

"Sorry forgot Mtl's situation. Up 2-0 w/ gm 3 @ home rec is 31-35 (47%) in 1st round & 127-109 (54%) over all rounds. Lines are fair tonight"

NHL 2011 PLAYOFFS

3* Philadelphia Flyers (+113)

2* Montreal Canadian (+109)

2* Boston/Montreal Under 5 (-118)


NBA 2011 PLAYOFFS

2* Indiana/Chicago Over 193 (-101)

MLB 2011

2* Milwaukee (+106)

3* Minnesota (+100)

4* Cincinnati -1.5 (+127)

Those are the early games.. just to have them posted in time.

I like the Under in Mtl very much.  I would venture to think it will be under 4.5.  Whoever scores first will play shutdown big time.

MLB 2011

2* Texas -1 (+103)

3* San Francisco (-122)

2* Seattle (+113)

2* Atlanta (-112)


Yeah Mick, I'm hoping for the Under mostly.. the play on Montreal is more of a hedge against my Series Bet. If Montreal wins it limits the loss, and if Boston wins I think they could rattle of 4 straight.. they just need to get that 1st one, and that early 1st goal was pretty huge. Should be a great game I'm enjoying it already!