Kreatture's Playbook 2011

regardless of the results tonight bud i feel sad that your letting it go like this...dont just gamble...crazy plays win or lose..your 1500 down on your balance ..so what ..you can get that back with a few decent nights....i am looking forward to your mlb season but please try and keep your reason and discipline....mlb is a long season and it may not go as planned but over a season i know you will end up on top...look at last season....avoid those texas losses hopefully and look where you will be...more experience now etc.....either way i will be watching and rooting for you...bol man..

I was too nervous on the BYU line.  The Mormon powers suspended Davies because he boinked a babe, and he is by far their best player.  They managed to pull it off somehow.  Not looking good for Marquette, but lots of hoop left.

Hey for what it's worth I called this shit.



Come on Kreature, don't like an asshole like me gain a moral advantage.

Drop your cock, grab your socks. Square yourself away shipmate.

i have officially stopped tailing, cheers.

Kreatture - you had a big bath.  Take a few days off.  And grind back - and learn the lesson never to chase (10% bets, etc - it worked on LA Kings a month ago - but we all know that's not disciplined).

Alternatively we can turn this into a forum of idea sharing (ie you don't have to give figures every day, but ideas) - and we all try to contribute...

Things like:
(a) IND under Vogel have new 1Q rotation - hence over is hitting a lot in 1Q
(b) Bet under in every Q in every CHI Bulls game?
(c) www.nba.com/tbt - for injury info,

etc.

Also,

DOES ANYONE KNOW WHERE I CAN GET ACCURATE INFO ON STARTING GOALTENDERS FOR UPCOMING GAME?  (Espn preview doesn't have a clue)

OK let's address all these comments one by one today.. first of all, just let me say that while I appreciate all the comments, no one here knows me in real life and knows the situations I have been in the past few months, and I'll try to explain things as I have the chance today.

Do not take anything I say in the next few posts as an attack or anything of that sort, I'm just simply going to try and explain things.

-----------------

I have some really reliable sources for players being out, or playing, well in advance of the hour before gametime when rosters are announced.. once in awhile, like anything, that info is wrong. I posted this pick in the afternoon as I wasn't going to be able to later that night before the game. At that time, Durant was ruled Out. Most of the time I don't post plays until close to game time, and if I had been able to wait on this day, it obviously wouldn't have been a play. Went with the information I had at the time, which is usually spot on. Just wasn't the case for this one.

 

Everyone runs bad.. yep. Not everyone runs bad for 2 months tho, which is basically what I've been doing here since I made $5000 in the first 2 weeks. Remember when I was at $15,000? I'm at what, about 7k now? A loss of 8k in 2+ months.. I'll address this more in the answer to another comment in a bit.

kvs23 I have accurate goaltending info which is available to everyone, I'll post it separate when I get to that post.

Cheers 

Appreciate the comments Oil, you've been a supporter all along and I'll remember that when the time comes.

 

GRIND.. what an interesting word. You're 100% correct, it is when I'm at my best. There's nothing I love more than the daily grind of this business.. When I started this journey almost 2 years ago I had been laid off from my job in Management and it left a very bitter taste in my mouth the way it happened. I took part of my severence pay and made the decision to invest in sports. If anyone remembers back then, I started with $500 and turned it into $3500 in my first 5 weeks playing $25 Units. It was the hardest I ever worked in my life, and I loved every second of it. I learned to treat it as a business, developed a daily routine which is a must.. woke up, scoped out some early lines, made some notes, worked out, ate a good breakfast, did some research based on early notes, monitored afternoon lines, did more research by reading everything I could possibly find, and then made some wagers based on all the information I had gathered. I loved it. It was great - and it was successful.

Nowadays.. my life is completely different. I work a shit job which I truely detest coming to every day, 6 days a week. I'm usually alone in an office with no one to talk to and anyone who knows me in real life, knows how much I love talking to people - whether I know them or not. It's a private company and the owner is trying to build his business and doesn't have a lot of money right now. It's usually very cold as the heat doesn't work in the front room and barely in the back. I don't ever take my coat off or else I would freeze to death. I'm here 10-5, 6 days a week, and it's miserable. I don't even get a lunch break. 

In between all the shit work I have to do, I try to cap some games. It's not the ideal way to find value and pick winners. It is what it is. As much as I want to grind, I'm just simply unable too.

Everyone here thinks I'm "tilting" due to some losses.. but that could be farther from the truth. As frustrating as some losses are, I know how to take a loss now. I could care less from one game to the next, it doesn't affect how I pick the games. What has "tilted" me is my day-to-day life and how miserable I'm become because of it. You've seen me go a few days, a week, two weeks, all good.. then suddenly BOOM - an inexplicable oddity of a day/night where it seems to everyone else like I've "lost my mind". Well let me assure you on those days - I really have.

The last case was Saturday.. Fuck what a miserable day I was having. I said fuck it and placed way larger bets than I really do know better than to do. Marquette was a 5% play and I changed it to 10 just cuz. No good reason. Colorado was a horrible pick, and I knew it. I was actually checking with my book to see if they would buy back the wager but they wouldn't. I knew it was going to be a loser and would have been willing to take the guaranteed small loss on a buyback. Playing Edmonton on +1.5 at something like -250 wasn't an option. 

I had a great day yesterday with big wins on the Lakers and Kentucky Wildcats, but was unable to post them here. Actually had a 4-0 day in the Ultimate Race for the 1st time in forever.. still hitting 53.91% in that, but barely good enough to sit around the 500th mark.

I've lost my train of thought now with some distractions around here, so I'll just move on to the next post..

Yep.. Evil Kreatture infiltrated my brain and did some more damage.

Unfortunately, the Dawn is still a couple months away..

 

 

Don't see much of you around anymore. Hope you're doing well nole   

Yep, I've been sitting at the 8K mark a few times now and had managed to work back up close to the even mark each time. I know I can grind with the best of them and I have the skills required for this.. I've just been unable to utilize them most days due to my life's circumstances.

At this point, don't hold your breath for MLB from me. MLB is even more of a daily grind than the other sports, and I don't even have time for them right now. I was successful at MLB cuz I was able to dedicate my time to it's success. I see no point in attempting it this year if my current situation remains the same.

The next 2 months will determine things.. I'm locked into a lease at my current house until the end of April. I've already given notice I'll be leaving and am currently looking for new places. Whenever the next place I move is, I plan on being there for a very long time, therefore I'm looking for a really nice place. If I'm able to get the place I want, and the new job I want, then hell yeah, MLB is on.. but if I don't have the proper time to run it the way I want, then there's no point. It will just be a lot of what is going on now - running in circles.

I don't know anyone who suffered an 80-Unit loss plus a few other 10-15 Unit losses and still managed to finish in the black for the season, and didn't even get to play the prime of the season in August.

We'll see how life goes.. cross your fingers.

Cheers 

Definitely one of the most unusual stories of the NCAA Season. I can't imagine living in a place like that..

The True Line on BYU should have been around -26, so they were valuing Davies being worth 4.5 points, and that was just too many. So I sold a half point and still had value at -22. The overall play was based on Situation Analysis in this instance. One of the few I capped where the results backed up the analysis.

It always seems harder to lay the big number (20+) on teams, but if you cap the game and figure there is value in the number Vegas comes out with, it's still value nonetheless and you should pounce.

Hope you're doing well mick   

I might as well go back to my Modified Martingale.. at least then I'd have a good reason for losing..

Left Wing Lock

Click on Starting Goalies or Today's Starters, then scroll down to the today's date. The names are greyed out until a goalie is confirmed, then it becomes visible and you can click on the name to go to the confirmaion page. Usually it's a Twitter feed, or a local paper game preview which often has useful information in addition.

This is the best site I've ever used for confirming goaltenders and is 99% realible.

 

Thanks for the thoughts.  I know what it's like to be in a crappy job, had more than a few in my time.  Now I'm at a job that I know is very good, but  feel like I've run my course there.  Ten years is a lot to throw away, and I have a family to consider.  Still, I believe I need something different, which is where sports comes in.  I would like to arrive at a place where I can replace part of my income with a certain degree of reliability.  This would allow me to do some projects that pay less, but I think would challenge me more.

I am still in a steep learning curve, trying to find out what works, what my degree of risk tolerance is, etc.  Some frustrations, some successes.  Still not sure if it will work out or not, but not willing to abandon ship either.  In a year's time I should have a clearer picture.

I respect and appreciate your efforts, kreatture.  I have learned a lot by following your adventure.  

NHL      WLT         PCT   UNITS    RANK

ATS   157-120-0    56.68%   6659     397
O/U      47-41-3     53.41%   1440    1026
ALL   204-161-3    55.89%   8099     289

NHL      WLT         PCT   UNITS    RANK

ATS    47-35-2     57.32%   4250     505
O/U     45-38-0     54.22%   2150     819
ALL    92-73-2     55.76%   6400     223

 

OVERALL   WLT     PCT     UNITS  RANK

ATS    214-170-2    55.73%    7759     377
O/U    100-80-3      55.56%    7040     489
ALL    314-250-5    55.67%  14799     103

 

55.67% over 569 plays for this season's NHL and NBA here in the Covers Main League Contests. Some people pick every game on the board, but I don't make any picks there which I wouldn't actually wager on. I make these picks at a different time then when I post my plays here for some reason and I don't always post all the plays here either. I guess I should start doing it that way..

The 2nd category should have read NBA.. I can't even type right when I'm stuck here!

I will have a play tonight for you all to fade.. will post it once I get home.

Mason vs. Conklin, which is the match-up required for this play. Both are confirmed.

NHL

Columbus/St. Louis  Under 5.5 (-113)
4%

Hope things go your way, love to see a focused K-man for MLB!

Yeah,kind of got annoyed and bored with Covers lately. Just dinking around with NBA while I wait for MLB to get here. I do check in here almost daily, just dont take the time to post.

I had some shitty jobs too bro. Just try to look for the positive in the negative. There's always something to learn if you look hard enough.

You'll see me a lot more in a few weeks for BASEBALL.

Looks like everyone is excited for baseball!

All I can say is get your grinding boots on because baseball is just that... a long and monotonous season. Get into the mode of not caring about winning or losing but just plugging away with value picks.

KREATTURE:   I know you have your problems,  we all do.  And being almost twice your age let me assure you, sh#!t jobs come and go,  failed relationships come and go.   This thing,  life,  is filled with heatbreak,  despair and much more than we all want to cope with. When I made the commitment to become a full time player it came through pain and suffering,  and this is why I am posting (which is very seldom). Like many members we watch and read.  Your energy and enthusiasm is a necessity to the success of your desires.  More importantly is the ability to persevere. To test your mettle.  not to us or any of your friends or family,  to yourself.  From reading your thread and the way you express yourself I think your a good person.  PATIENCE   DISCIPLINE CONSTANCY OF PURPOSE.  Some of the ingredients required.  Your Friend,                                                                Drknow

 

                             

Exactly.. and if I don't have the proper time to dedicate to it, it's just pointless.

Hope everyone made some money off my fade play tonight! Game is barely 10 minutes old and you pretty much have a winner already!!

Thanks You Sir for the kind words. Much appreciated   

Don't have time to update things, gotta get some sleep.. balance is around $6700 I believe.

KHL 2nd Round begins in the morning. Will be starting with 2 of the 4 Series. One begins Tuesday, the other Wednesday.

KHL PLAYOFFS

SKA St. Petersburg  -0.5 (-143) (regulation)
$143 to win $100

AK Bars  -0.5 (+125) (regulation)     (Wednesday morning)
$100 to win $125

Nice 5-3 win by SKA after falling behind 3-1 in the 1st Period. Too bad all games didn't start this early and were played in Russia, cuz I think my record has been pretty good on these games.

I just withdrew my roll from Sports Interaction and will no longer be wagering there. Due to my time constraints preventing me from Live Wagering I no longer see any value by keeping money there. I will also be withdrawing all funds from Intertops shortly and moving 100% of my roll over to Pinnacle. They offer everything you could possibly want and have by far the best odds out there. There's no reason to have money tied up anywhere else now.

I am working on a couple new things and will update everything tonight when I get home. I'll actually have an entire evening to myself.. I forget what that's like.

Cheers