Kreatture's Playbook 2011

Does anyone else find it really, really boring around here lately?? Seems like everyone is shutting down their threads and there's only a couple which are actually doing any good right now..

I've been extremely busy during the days at work here and after taking a few days away from Covers here, it's actually been quite nice not to be posting every day. I guess stepping away a bit has really helped my head cuz I've been on another heater this past week. Been posting some picks on Twitter and been making all my picks in the Covers Contest.. up to 4 Stars now and sitting 52nd Overall for all of Covers. This month 31-18 Overall NBA, NHL, NCAAB.

I haven't shut things down here, just taking a break from the daily posting. This is the best time of the year for sports lovers and I could not be more excited with March Madness tipping off tomorrow!! Have already isolated a few Best Bets for the 1st Round (technically called the 2nd round now, I guess.. how stupid is that?!) and I'll be sure to pass the Opening Round BOMBS along on Twitter. I see a lot of you have added me there already. It's much easier for me to post something there than log in here and post during the day when I'm busy.

So good luck on your brackets, and I'll be chatting with you again soon!

Cheers 

Oh, I almost forgot...

My Official March Madness Bracket Entry name is Tiger Blood's WINNING Formula

 

WINNING!!!!!

 

HaHa, cheers guys!

Kreatture - please post your BOMBS here too - I check this thread all the time (and I'm sure a lot of other people do too).

Kreatture - thoughts on Habs/Bolts Under 5.5 at -130?  I know it ain't sexy to talk hockey at the beginning of Madness, but a solid wager is a solid wager

I don't like paying the juice with Montreal at home. No VALUE for me. Good luck if you play it 

 

It's MADNESS DAY BABY!!! Pumped out some good info on Twitter this morning, I'll be there all day passing things along, will post here if I can.

The most important thing for today is this.. with all the excitement and hoopla..

Get FOCUSED. Be SELECTIVE. Stay DISCIPLINED.

I'll be sure to post my Final 4 and Championship teams before 1st tip-off. I think it's good to place Futures for this, then develop some great hedge opportunities down the road.

Right now, I can tell you my only BOMB of the afternoon is actually one which another solid member here likes, and I smiled when I just read his post and saw his pick.

VANDY -3 (-101)

Lean to Clemson in the opening game, but not enough to warrant a play right now.

Enjoy your day fellas! 

Does anyone know of any sportsbooks offering a free promo for March Madness? Similar to BetPhoenix last year where they offered a free bet on just March Madness games and you could cash out a max of $250 after an 8x rollover.

I collected my $250 on that one and have to imagine some book is offering something similar once again. I don't have time to search around.

Cheers 

NCAA MARCH MADNESS

ELITE EIGHT

EAST

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

WEST

Duke vs. San Diego State

SOUTHWEST

Kansas vs. Purdue

SOUTHEAST

Utah State vs. Florida

FINAL FOUR

North Carolina vs. Duke
Kansas vs. Florida

CHAMPIONSHIP

Kansas

Going against my Pre-Season Pick of Duke, but I expect them to be there.

FUTURES

EAST

North Carolina  +549

WEST

Duke  +130

SOUTHEAST

Florida +372

SOUTHWEST

Kansas +130

 

Great value on Florida who arguably has the easiest pass to the Final Four. They were over-rated earlier in the season but they've played very well down the stretch. They have great coaching and great guard play - 2 things which are needed for a deep run.

For some reason I though it was on the road.  It's tomorrow v the Rangers I had circled.

Yep, definitely like tomorrow's better, grab it early before the juice gets too high.


--------------------------------------

Tough start on Vandy.. Spiders hit every shot they put up including a ridiculous # of 3's. It's just one game, gotta remember to stay focused on your own game plan.

Wiseguys have steamed Belmont hard. Very hard. But at -4 I think value now favors the Badgers. I'm making them a big play.

Later tonight, GONZAGA and CINCINNATI are the other 2 big plays tonight. I'm looking to lock in Michigan St. but can't do it yet.


Books are having a GREAT day so far, with the Public AND Sharps taking some beats. In my opinion the better wagering games are the later ones an I expect it'll even out some to finish the night.

Be SELECTIVE. There's a ton of action to go over the next few weeks and you don't nee to hit that homerun on the first bunch of games on the first day. Stay FOCUSED.

The games have been great so far, lots of last second shots to win games.. couldn't ask for anything more as a fan! Enjoy the greatest Tournament on the Planet!!

Nice calls on WISC, GONZ, and CIN.

Thanks kvs, it was a great start to the Madness going 3-1 on big plays. It's all about being selective! Pretty easy to get swept up in all the excitement and lay bets on every game going, but you have to be smart with your money.

If you just gotta have action on all the games, then play a very small parley or teaser just to satisfy your craving.

Couldn't post here earlier, but am on Oakland/Texas Over and Michigan right now for small plays.. definitely looks like there will be a couple of BOMBS later.. all info is on Twitter here @kreatture

For anyone at work unable to watch the NCAA games..

Sports Illustrated Game Console

Boss Button included!

big loss for me tonight :( might jump back on this train

KENTUCKY WILDCATS BOMB -- UPGRADED TO GOW

Lookin to confirm FLORIDA & GONZAGA, should be able to post here up until 3pm EST today, after that it's all on Twitter.

How's everyone's Bracket lookin? I've only lost 2 teams I had goin to Sweet Sixteen (Vanderbilt, Utah St.), fairly happy with 1st Round. The Brackets are tough to fill out early tho, I changed my mind on 3 games yesterday after getting more info and they went 2-1. Brackets are just for fun and bragging rights.. Money comes from being Selective and FIRING BOMBS on SU games you know you have an edge in, and there are lots of edges out there evidenced by lines moving 2-4pts on Sides and up to NINE pts on Totals!! That Over on Oakland/Texas yesterday shot up 9 pts from the Opening Line and STILL easily cashed!

We learned a lot of info from the 1st Round about how the Market was operating, and now the Books are forced to adjust their lines and thinking for Round 2. They'll still be way off on some games tho and we'll be sure to take advantage of it!

Enjoy the day!!

KENTUCKY 2ND HALF

HUGE VALUE WIN OR LOSE, IT'S THE RIGHT PLAY -- FIRE!!

FLORIDA will NOT be a play.. like them, but not enough to fire a bomb. Will wait for stronger spot later.

GONZAGA will NOT be a play. They have been downgraded to a non-play all together. Don't want anything to do with the Zags tonight, altho I will be hopin they still win since I had them through to Sweet Sixteen. Not worthy of a money play tho.

KANSAS STATE & CINCINNATI have been upgraded to possible BOMB plays.. keepin an eye on as info comes in. Will probably not have enough info before 3pm EST (less than 1 hr) to post here.

 

WISEGUYS STEAMING UCLA LIKE THEIR MONEY IS ON FIRE!!!! Not surprised by this move, as I said earlier I was NOT locking Florida in as a Bomb Play!

I have Florida in Final Four so I'm not happy to see this.. hopefully Florida can hang on and win by 1-4pts!

7-2 Overall NCAA Tourney including 5-2 on Bombs. Had nothing last night and nothing today so far. Happy to see North Carolina survive. Futures still all looking good, will be able to hedge pts soon if a good opportunity comes up.

Leaning George Mason + the pts, Purdue - the pts, Kansas - the pts, Notre Dame - the pts.. nothing locked in yet. These may look best in small Teasers tonight if I can't confirm a Bomb Play.

Only lost one team from Elite Eight so far (Utah St.) but with Pitt losing that won't hurt so much. Been a really great tournament so far, altho the refereeing has been anything but spectacular.

Good Luck

wish i had been tailing, done so crap lately

Wasn't able to confirm anything today really, but suffered a medium teaser loss on George Mason/Purdue/Kansas.. then fired a Bomb on Kansas ML which brought back about 75% of the teaser loss.

Finished the weekend 8-3 with 6-2 on Bomb Plays, a very successful Round of 64 & 32. I have 6 of my 8 Elite Eight Teams still going (lost Purdue & Utah St), so I'm fairly happy with my Bracket. Futures all looking brighter on North Carolina, Duke, Kansas & Florida to win their Regions.

It was a fun weekend with some incredible finishes. The refereeing has been atrocious and it's a disgrace how the broadcasters and league officials defended them today.

Most shocking upset of weekend to me - VCU over Purdue
Least shocking upset to me - Florida State over Notre Dame (less shocking to me than Butler over Pitt, I had ND marked as most over-rated seed heading into tourney)

Can't wait til Sweet Sixteen Thursday, I really love this time of year!

Cheers 

cheers kreatture, will be tailing as much as possible again

It's tough to tail.. everyone has their hot and cold streaks, even the Pros. It's so important to manage your money well - in fact, it's what mostly separates the winners from the losers.

When you jump around tailing one guy to another, you're really just hoping to catch that guy on a hot streak and then move on. You gotta be careful tho, cuz you could just as easily jump on a guy who hits a mini cold streak, then jump to another guy who's hot just to have him hit a mini cold spell, as well.

A good capper will take 3 steps forward, then 2 steps back.. but he'll steadily gain 1 foot at a time which is what you have to do to make consistent money at this.

I've been learning so much just in the past few weeks with what I've been doing and how I've been approaching things. I've been surrounding myself with people who know very much about this Business and are willing to share what they know. You have to pay serious attention and listen well, picking up things here an there. It's a huge step for me. I also feel more grounded than ever.

The edge in NCAA Hoops is HUGE during the Madness. Linesmakers are so far off it's sad. People think they are so good, yet you saw lines moving 5 pts consistently.. that is huge exposure for them, and when the EDGE is that huge, you up your wager when you know you have that edge. FIRE BOMBS and collect.

Now that the weekend is over we have to go back to NHL and NBA where our edge isn't as strong right now, so wagers go back down to normal levels.

Don't throw your hard-earned money away night after night like the general public does playing most of the games on the board just for the sake of action. You won't get ahead that way. You have to be patient and find your spots, wager ONLY on the BEST BETS. Play a very small parley if you have to have the constant action, but never near the amounts of your regular plays.

Get FOCUSED. Be SELECTIVE. Stay DISCIPLINED.

Gotta go, trying to confirm WASHINGTON STATE 1ST HALF OVER  AND SPREAD GAME. Will post on Twitter if I'm FIRING.


Remember.. it's not whether you win or lose a particular wager - it's about being on the right side of the VALUE. When you know you're on the right side of the VALUE you know you'll win more than you'll lose, and you quit caring whether or not you win that particular bet.

Have a great week, Cheers 

Kreatture,

Keep up the good work!  Unfortunately we both missed that Vandy,

Mtp104