Kreatture's Playbook 2011

good to see u bro. BOL

Thanks bud, big win for our Colts today!! Knew they could come through!

Cheers 

Writing a response to nole from earlier, but let me get this is before game time..

NFL
New England Patriots  1st Quarter -3  (-130)
1%

1% or your total at the beginning of the day or the adjusted total? 

The Teaser is a tough call. I believe if you really aren't careful with your picks and don't have a strategy, then Teasers are definitely a "sucker bet".

I previously explained what I like to do, but let me explain in a little more depth. I like to look through the list of games and circle all the Dogs I honestly believe have a better than decent shot at winning straight up. Today, those Dogs were Houston, Arizona, Cleveland, New Orleans, Philadelphia & the NY Jets. This is just an initial reaction. Then I circle all the Favorites who I believe have a big edge and could win by 10+ points. Again, based on initial reaction.

Then as the week goes on and practices are completed, injuries are updated, weather reports are forecast, and other general factors become clear, I cap the games from my initial list and then cut it down to Top Plays (usually just 2-4 plays) and Value Plays (the rest).
When I look at my list and see I can then add enough points onto my Dog to get them above a touchdown (+7 or greater), I feel confident putting them into a Teaser. That way, even if my Dog doesn't bite (which I obviously feel they can), I know I expect them to keep it very close. Worked great today for Arizona (lost by 7), Cleveland (lost by 2), & New Orleans (lost by 6). Unfortunately, not so well on Houston (lost by 14).
For my Favorites (those who I think can win by 10 or more), I look to see if I can bring the spread down to at least a Pick'Em, but preferably cross the zero to the key number of at least +3. I obviously feel like these Favorites will at the very least win straight up, but if something strange happens and they slip up, I have a FG cushion. Even if my Favorites lose the game, I never believe they will lose by more than a FG. This worked with Tampa Bay today (lost by 3) and got me a push at least. I really am surprised Tampa couldn't hold off the Lions in the end, but at least I had that FG cushion. (A couple of guys PM'ed me and said they got TB at +3.5, which was great! That would have made a huge difference, so congrats!!). Unfortunately, this didn't work well with St. Louis today (lost by 14). In hindsight, it may have been a horrible pick. I know I REALLY wanted the Rams to win personally, so maybe I let that impact my decision a little too much. No excuses there, it was a lousy pick.
So overall, 6-2-1 on all the Teaser picks, winning 2 of the 3 tickets.

When it comes to NBA Teasers - well I don't see much value in those since you only get 5 points. In a game where there's an average of 200pts/game, getting just 5 sucks. That being said, I have played a rare 2-3 game NBA Teaser, and if I ever do here I will explain why.

Hope that answers your question nole. If not, I'm open to discussing anything. It was a fun day, and the Patriots just took the lead! Woo Hoo!

NFL is my favorite sport, and today felt like Superbowl Sunday around here for me because the Colts season was on the line. It was the hardest I've cheered all season! This week will be much quieter compared to today!

Cheers 

NFL
New England Patriots  1st Quarter -3  (-130)
1% $100 to win $76.92

Sorry, too many things on the go tonight right now and I didn't even look at what the account balance was before clicking it in. Normally it would be 1% of the adjusted total since everything was already completed, but I just slammed $100 in for it since I had other things on the go here.

I had a PM question about ROI and for anyone looking to set up a formula in an excel spreadsheet or anything for their own tracking, here's the basic formula. Proper ROI can get quite complicated when including time variables, but for this purpose we will ignore that and just use the basic formula.

ROI Calculation

Invested: Total Amount Wagered (this does not include the initial bankroll amount)
Returned: Total Amount of Invested + Winnings
Profit: Returned - Invested
ROI: (Returned - Invested) / Invested * 100

If Green Bay slams a TD in here, I may jump on New England.. the ML was still -600 with the 10-7 score.. stay tuned.

BANKROLL: $10,478.62
OVERALL RECORD: 4-2    (66%)

INVESTED: $830
RETURNED: $1308.62
PROFIT: +$478.62
ROI %: +57.67%

Once again, I was about to put in a Live Wager, but it is pretty much impossible to post the play here for someone to then also get a play in before the next snap. The big kick-off return there pretty much eliminated the value right away from the small window.

Live Wagering is such a key part to my strategy that for me not to include these plays in my overall numbers, it would really take away from the advantage I believe I hold. The best I can do is provide notice when I see a potential play upcoming, like I did with the Patriots there. Green Bay scored the TD, so jumping on the Pats ML was a no-brainer once it came down to -150.

NFL Live In-Game

Packers/Patriots  PATRIOTS ML  -150   17-7 GB 2:17 left 2nd Q
3% $314.36 to win $157.18


If the ML goes back down at all I'll be hitting it again. It's currently -400 for Game. I see no value in the 2nd Half line right now (-10, 23.5)

Cheers 

The Patriots ML is once again at -150 if anyone missed getting it before. I'd jump on it now if I haven't all ready.

NFL Live In-Game

Packers/Patriots  PATRIOTS ML  +170   24-21 GB End 3rd Q
1% $104.79 to win $178.14

I've found another peril of trying to post here while doing the fast and furious Live Wagering, while also watching the Survivor Finale and the TLC PPV, (as well as the game!).. I come here and try to do math quickly in my head instead of actually looking at the win amount on the ticket!
Should read..

3% $314.36 to win $209.57

Good finish to this game..

If this was ANY other team than the Patriots, I'd jump on Green Bay +450 right now to break even at worst case.. that's kind of what you look for when doing this.. a situation where you either break even or make a small profit.. but I'm letting it ride with Brady & Co.

This isn't the norm and as I write this I'm second guessing myself.. ugh.

nice call on the pats man...keep it up..

welcome back Kreatture

BANKROLL: $10,478.62
OVERALL RECORD: 6-2    (75%)

INVESTED: $1249.15
RETURNED: $2115.48
PROFIT: +$866.33
ROI %: +69.35%


Lucky finish in New England? Maybe.. but if it had been Aaron Rodgers in there I would never have made the initial investment in New England to begin with. Flynn played very, very well, but he had to eventually show his inexperience and you had to count on that happening. That being said, I still should have taken Green Bay at +450 with about 5min left. The point of Live Wagering from an investment standpoint is getting the wager in at the right time with the right value. Anytime you can then get the other side at the kind of value to guarantee either a profit or break even - you take it. Otherwise it's just gambling and you're leaving yourself open to high risk. I gambled with the Patriots tonight and it paid off, but if it hadn't, I would have deserved the loss.

We'll try to do better next time. It was a good day. Don't expect nearly as many fireworks on days not named Sunday.

Cheers 

Shit, I'm tired.. crazy long day. I gotta get used to posting again. Forgot to add the profit from tonight onto the overall total.. usually pumped with excitement after a big day but right now I just wanna go to sleep. See you all tomorrow.

BANKROLL: $10,866.33
OVERALL RECORD: 6-2    (75%)

INVESTED: $1249.15
RETURNED: $2115.48
PROFIT: +$866.33
ROI %: +69.35%

Good Night 

To longterm success... 

Great Start -

Great start to the thread, K.  Love the write-ups (as always).  Good luck.

"I like the Rams, Texans, Browns & Bucs all to cover their respective spreads, but I'm just gonna go with the fun teasers for right now."

0-4 good thing you took the teasers....

Yep, good thing. I had a rough day ATS, good thing I didn't play anything! Don't usually see a big day when you get a lot of games wrong LoL

Good luck, Kreatture!!! 

Will totally be checking in on your plays bro