Quote Originally Posted by Budman717:
A couple of questions, one on topic, one off:
Have you decided how/when you'll stop your system plays on baseball? You probably have already thought of this, but I've found it unwise to play a system all the way to the end a of season. A loss gives you little to no season left with which to recover.
Off topic, have you given any more thought to applying your skills to hockey? I ask as a reminder that the NHL starts 2 weeks early this year (October 3 or so) to include a 2-1/2 week break for the Winter Olympics in March. Feel free to PM me rather than cluttering up this baseball thread w/ hockey.
Good luck today/tonight, and I'm looking forward to seeing your picks.
Deciding when to end a System for the season is a tough question. I have been reading that a lot of Systems (baseball) struggle once September rolls around.
I believe that a good handicapper should be able to adjust his ability based on the current situation presented to them, just as a good player, or team, would.
A perfect example of this would be for Live Betting. I have had nothing but great success the past few months by Live Betting the final round of the Golf weekend, the finals of the Tennis Majors, and now, ESPN Sunday Night Baseball games.
These situations present great opportunity for added Units, but one must know what they are doing. You can not blindly place wagers mid-event without having a good reason, just as you can not place wagers on System Plays just cuz the System says so. You have to analysis what is currently going on (mid-event or start of a system play) and determine how to proceed.
Adjusting to the current situation is of vital importance. I believe, of the MLB Systems I am currently playing, that all of them will continue to profit through the remainder of the season.
RunLine Blitz - Since I have adapted the version created by prof8t, this really is just a System of handicapping my own personal best plays. I go over a list of games and crunch the numbers, much like sports_Networks does in his thread, and then decide on my top plays. For this reason, adjustments are made on a daily basis based on injuries, lineup changes, pitcher availability, road/home, day/night, righty/lefty trends, etc. Therefore this System should continue to produce winners right to the end. RunLine Plays are of great value and a must have to add significant growth to one's bankroll.
HFOUDL - Other than a 2 week period (end May, early June) this System has been great. It also has a proven track record in Septembers the past 2 seasons.
2007
Betting each game: 39-20 (66.10%) +14.00u
Betting the chase: 17-0 (100%) +17.00u
2008
Betting each game: 41-17 (70.69%) +17.89u
Betting the chase: 17-1 (94.44%) +8.50u
I will continue to monitor each series closely, as I have been, and decide on whether to play or not. I expect there to be plays here in September tho.
Top 5 Home Team - This has been an incredible System and I am proud to have created this version. I anticipate this System to last through September as the Top teams will be competing for division titles and wild card spots. They will actually have more motivation and should continue to produce solid results. However, there will be added filters down the stretch, and modifications. You may notice all ready, that for today I am playing a Spot Play for here, as the Wild Card now comes into the picture. Filters I am looking at adding are to do with teams who have clinched playoff spots. Once a team has clinched the division title or wild card spot, they will obviously have less motivation and will think about giving players days off. Of course, with the races so tight this may not come into play until the very end.
As always, System Plays are just recommended plays, and will be monitored daily as weeding out potential losses and looking for increased value never ends.
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As far as looking at NHL, yes, it is creeping upon us and I look forward to having solid success there as well. I am anticipating having a similar Top 5 Home Team, which would involve top teams on a 3-4 (or more) homestand.
I will also be doing something along the lines of a PuckLine Blitz, obviously similar to the current RunLine one.
I am sure there will be at least a dozen of other Systems which get posted on the forums here. I look forward to seeing some of them, and will try to find a couple I really like, much like I did with the hfoudl one.
Hope that answers everything for now, always feel free to ask me anything.
Cheers
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