In my experience, everybody goes through cycles. Look at Gamehunter's May, for example, when there was about a two week stretch that was pretty rocky. As you noted, S_N has hit a patch. Did everybody suddenly forget how to 'cap? 'Course not. I've had chases in different sports all go bad at the same time. Nothing you can do about it except manage your money properly, the one thing you CAN control. You've demonstrated that you can handle that. Chalk it up to the full moon, and we move on. Looking forward to your picks today. Let's go get 'em.
0
In my experience, everybody goes through cycles. Look at Gamehunter's May, for example, when there was about a two week stretch that was pretty rocky. As you noted, S_N has hit a patch. Did everybody suddenly forget how to 'cap? 'Course not. I've had chases in different sports all go bad at the same time. Nothing you can do about it except manage your money properly, the one thing you CAN control. You've demonstrated that you can handle that. Chalk it up to the full moon, and we move on. Looking forward to your picks today. Let's go get 'em.
Go back and read your own comments right before and after the all-star break. You had it right then. Keep your units low, and slowly rebuild the bankroll. Trying to do spot plays and parlays (even for small units) to hit a homerun and recover will not do it. I'm not saying not to do these, but they should be done when you're up not down. It seems that desparation breeds more losses, at leasst for me. It clouds the judgement. When I am confident, i make smarter picks. When I am desperate for a win, I tend to chase or reach for value, and get into trouble.
I would also think about reducing the number of systems you do, if nothing else at least for a couple weeks.
So, slow down, get some wins and get your confidence back. this will lead to better capping in future games.
Just my 2 cents
0
Kreatture, my suggestion: stop trying too hard.
Go back and read your own comments right before and after the all-star break. You had it right then. Keep your units low, and slowly rebuild the bankroll. Trying to do spot plays and parlays (even for small units) to hit a homerun and recover will not do it. I'm not saying not to do these, but they should be done when you're up not down. It seems that desparation breeds more losses, at leasst for me. It clouds the judgement. When I am confident, i make smarter picks. When I am desperate for a win, I tend to chase or reach for value, and get into trouble.
I would also think about reducing the number of systems you do, if nothing else at least for a couple weeks.
So, slow down, get some wins and get your confidence back. this will lead to better capping in future games.
Thanks for the comments guys, really appreciate it.
I definitely need to slow down and get back to what I was doing the 1st couple months which saw me up about 100 Units at one point. The Unit size is fine again, but I am for sure running out too many games on a weekly basis it seems. Maybe I could still do the Poor/Rich System but lower the Units down to like $10 or something.
sorry I couldn't get the Playbook posted this afternoon, and the spreadsheets were not updated either. I placed a couple bets late last night and haven't been online since.
Game 2 of Toronto was today tho, and they won 3-2 in 10 innings. I laid off the profit here and played just to recover the $82.50 I had lost last night. So breaking even in that series, I'll take it.
Game 2 of San Francisco was today as well, nice win there to clear that Chase on the Top 5 Home Team. Made 1 Unit there.
The only play tonight so far is Philadelphia for the RunLine Blitz. Spreadsheet is updated there. May play the Dodgers later tonight, see how Philly does.
Cheers
0
Thanks for the comments guys, really appreciate it.
I definitely need to slow down and get back to what I was doing the 1st couple months which saw me up about 100 Units at one point. The Unit size is fine again, but I am for sure running out too many games on a weekly basis it seems. Maybe I could still do the Poor/Rich System but lower the Units down to like $10 or something.
sorry I couldn't get the Playbook posted this afternoon, and the spreadsheets were not updated either. I placed a couple bets late last night and haven't been online since.
Game 2 of Toronto was today tho, and they won 3-2 in 10 innings. I laid off the profit here and played just to recover the $82.50 I had lost last night. So breaking even in that series, I'll take it.
Game 2 of San Francisco was today as well, nice win there to clear that Chase on the Top 5 Home Team. Made 1 Unit there.
The only play tonight so far is Philadelphia for the RunLine Blitz. Spreadsheet is updated there. May play the Dodgers later tonight, see how Philly does.
In the E-book Bookie Buster... he says it is much better to play a lot of plays. In is claim, your dog could pick 50% over the length of a few weeks, so with a little bit of studying you could raise that by at least 5%.
I see his point, but I dunno...
0
Haha.. you are going to think I'm an idiot...
In the E-book Bookie Buster... he says it is much better to play a lot of plays. In is claim, your dog could pick 50% over the length of a few weeks, so with a little bit of studying you could raise that by at least 5%.
first off let me say ty to all the work you do ....your spreadsheets are amazing and so easy to read because if i can read them anyone can lol ....you really do alot for this forum brother and its appreciated
as for your question i myself play less games with more money attached to it instead of playing multiple games with less units but i guess everybody has there own way ....
0
first off let me say ty to all the work you do ....your spreadsheets are amazing and so easy to read because if i can read them anyone can lol ....you really do alot for this forum brother and its appreciated
as for your question i myself play less games with more money attached to it instead of playing multiple games with less units but i guess everybody has there own way ....
Personally, I play more games for fewer units, but that doesn't make Angelo wrong and me right. Any capper has to find what works best for themselves. Kinda sounds like a psychobabble non-answer, but I've found a method that I'm comfortable with. It's probably too rich for some and too conservative for others, but I'm okay with that. The main thing is to maximize profits without unneeded risk. Notice "unneeded." There's always risk; that's why they call it gambling.
0
Personally, I play more games for fewer units, but that doesn't make Angelo wrong and me right. Any capper has to find what works best for themselves. Kinda sounds like a psychobabble non-answer, but I've found a method that I'm comfortable with. It's probably too rich for some and too conservative for others, but I'm okay with that. The main thing is to maximize profits without unneeded risk. Notice "unneeded." There's always risk; that's why they call it gambling.
Great thoughts guys, thanks for sharing. And no, I don't think you are an idiot JoeMoney LoL. Opinions are just that, and everyone has a right to say what they think.
Philles blew the lead, son of a...
Going with the Padres and Dodgers for small wagers on the RL .. plus a small parley on the ML's ..
0
Great thoughts guys, thanks for sharing. And no, I don't think you are an idiot JoeMoney LoL. Opinions are just that, and everyone has a right to say what they think.
Philles blew the lead, son of a...
Going with the Padres and Dodgers for small wagers on the RL .. plus a small parley on the ML's ..
Kreatture, my style is to bet less with higher amounts relative to my BR.
Whenever I got more than 3 games goin' on one night is never looks good in the end. I like having a a pick or two a few times a week for 5% of my BR on each.
If I am bored in between my system plays, I will do a parlay or spot play for 10-25 bucks.
0
Kreatture, my style is to bet less with higher amounts relative to my BR.
Whenever I got more than 3 games goin' on one night is never looks good in the end. I like having a a pick or two a few times a week for 5% of my BR on each.
If I am bored in between my system plays, I will do a parlay or spot play for 10-25 bucks.
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just the RunLine Blitz going today, Recovery Process is underway. Breaking the big loss into many, many small lines. Goal is to finish at least .500 today which should net a small profit. Obviously, winning 5 or 6 of them would be much better. Tiger Woods squares off vs. Padraig Harrington this afternoon in the Final Round of the WGC-Bridgestone Championship. Tiger starts the round 3 back, so took him to win for +120, great value. Will be Live Betting the golf today, as usual. Has yielded great results in the past and hope to continue that today. Pre-Season NFL kicks off tonight with the annual Hall of Fame game in Tennessee. Some people say Pre-Season isn't worth wagering on, while others say it's the best time. I tend to agree with the best time people, how can you not? When else in Sports will you ever be told by the coaches exactly how the game is going to unfold?? They tell you exactly how long the starters are going to play, who is coming in for backup, exactly what the gameplan intentions are, and everything else you usually try to figure out while breaking down a game. Also, there are very strong trends with certain coaches winning and losing in Pre-Season. For some teams, usually the really bad ones, it is very important for them to get a couple of Pre-Season wins to try and build momentum for the Season (and then they really stink it up!) So I will definitely be playing some Pre-Season NFL, you just have to do your homework like anything else.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 9TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
TORONTO BLUE JAYS lineA DETROIT TIGERS lineB WAHINGTON NATONALS +1.5 lineC ST. LOUIS CARDINALS lineD HOUSTON ASTROS +1.5 lineE CHICAGO CUBS lineF SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS lineG
Plays are all small wagers, hoping for at least 4-3 here today.
TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH
Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week
RICH BOSTON (vs. ny yankees) game6
This is a non-wager game, but is listed here for tracking purposes only. This is an ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game, and I will be Live Betting this tonight.
SPOT PLAYS OVER 31.5 NFL buffalo / tennessee
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just the RunLine Blitz going today, Recovery Process is underway. Breaking the big loss into many, many small lines. Goal is to finish at least .500 today which should net a small profit. Obviously, winning 5 or 6 of them would be much better. Tiger Woods squares off vs. Padraig Harrington this afternoon in the Final Round of the WGC-Bridgestone Championship. Tiger starts the round 3 back, so took him to win for +120, great value. Will be Live Betting the golf today, as usual. Has yielded great results in the past and hope to continue that today. Pre-Season NFL kicks off tonight with the annual Hall of Fame game in Tennessee. Some people say Pre-Season isn't worth wagering on, while others say it's the best time. I tend to agree with the best time people, how can you not? When else in Sports will you ever be told by the coaches exactly how the game is going to unfold?? They tell you exactly how long the starters are going to play, who is coming in for backup, exactly what the gameplan intentions are, and everything else you usually try to figure out while breaking down a game. Also, there are very strong trends with certain coaches winning and losing in Pre-Season. For some teams, usually the really bad ones, it is very important for them to get a couple of Pre-Season wins to try and build momentum for the Season (and then they really stink it up!) So I will definitely be playing some Pre-Season NFL, you just have to do your homework like anything else.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 9TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
TORONTO BLUE JAYS lineA DETROIT TIGERS lineB WAHINGTON NATONALS +1.5 lineC ST. LOUIS CARDINALS lineD HOUSTON ASTROS +1.5 lineE CHICAGO CUBS lineF SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS lineG
Plays are all small wagers, hoping for at least 4-3 here today.
TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH
Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week
RICH BOSTON (vs. ny yankees) game6
This is a non-wager game, but is listed here for tracking purposes only. This is an ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game, and I will be Live Betting this tonight.
I'm still researching NFL systems for pre-season and early season games. Not finding too much in the forums. The over in the Hall of Fame game is a popular choice today so I'm going to tail for one unit. I got BUF/TEN OVER 31.5 @ -114 for one unit.
BOL kreatture
0
I'm still researching NFL systems for pre-season and early season games. Not finding too much in the forums. The over in the Hall of Fame game is a popular choice today so I'm going to tail for one unit. I got BUF/TEN OVER 31.5 @ -114 for one unit.
Well.. was a good afternoon, but could have been great. 4-3 on the RL games for +2.51 Units. Cheap solo shot by the Twins in top 9 to make it 8-7 was another late inning tough loss. Live Betting the Golf Final should have been great, had the money on Tiger but panicked when he fell apart on 14 and 15 and went from 2-up to 1-down and pounded Padraig. Ended up only making $40 from it instead of $160, blah..
Looking forward to Sunday Night Baseball and the NFL Hall of Fame game.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 9TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
2.51 / 9.21 Units Recovered
SPOT PLAYS OVER 31.5 NFL buffalo / tennessee TEAM TOTAL OVER 17 tennessee titans TENNESSEE TITANS ML TENNESSEE TITANS 2ND HALF (doesn't matter what the score is, the backups playing tonight are so much better than buffalo's)
Worst case scenario, I break even for the day. Hopefully a good spot will occur Live Betting the Sox/Yankees game for some more Units.
Enjoy the evening!
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Well.. was a good afternoon, but could have been great. 4-3 on the RL games for +2.51 Units. Cheap solo shot by the Twins in top 9 to make it 8-7 was another late inning tough loss. Live Betting the Golf Final should have been great, had the money on Tiger but panicked when he fell apart on 14 and 15 and went from 2-up to 1-down and pounded Padraig. Ended up only making $40 from it instead of $160, blah..
Looking forward to Sunday Night Baseball and the NFL Hall of Fame game.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 9TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
2.51 / 9.21 Units Recovered
SPOT PLAYS OVER 31.5 NFL buffalo / tennessee TEAM TOTAL OVER 17 tennessee titans TENNESSEE TITANS ML TENNESSEE TITANS 2ND HALF (doesn't matter what the score is, the backups playing tonight are so much better than buffalo's)
Worst case scenario, I break even for the day. Hopefully a good spot will occur Live Betting the Sox/Yankees game for some more Units.
I'm still researching NFL systems for pre-season and early season games. Not finding too much in the forums. The over in the Hall of Fame game is a popular choice today so I'm going to tail for one unit. I got BUF/TEN OVER 31.5 @ -114 for one unit.
BOL kreatture
BOL dufresne
0
Quote Originally Posted by dufresne:
I'm still researching NFL systems for pre-season and early season games. Not finding too much in the forums. The over in the Hall of Fame game is a popular choice today so I'm going to tail for one unit. I got BUF/TEN OVER 31.5 @ -114 for one unit.
Well.. was a good afternoon, but could have been great. 4-3 on the RL games for +2.51 Units. Cheap solo shot by the Twins in top 9 to make it 8-7 was another late inning tough loss. Live Betting the Golf Final should have been great, had the money on Tiger but panicked when he fell apart on 14 and 15 and went from 2-up to 1-down and pounded Padraig. Ended up only making $40 from it instead of $160, blah..
Looking forward to Sunday Night Baseball and the NFL Hall of Fame game.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 9TH, 2009
SPOT PLAYS OVER 31.5 NFL buffalo / tennessee TEAM TOTAL OVER 17 tennessee titans TENNESSEE TITANS ML TENNESSEE TITANS 2ND HALF (doesn't matter what the score is, the backups playing tonight are so much better than buffalo's)
Buffalo's starters are only in for 10-12 plays tonight, and Vince Young is supposed to be playing the 2nd Half For Tennessee.
Looks good, I like it.
0
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
Well.. was a good afternoon, but could have been great. 4-3 on the RL games for +2.51 Units. Cheap solo shot by the Twins in top 9 to make it 8-7 was another late inning tough loss. Live Betting the Golf Final should have been great, had the money on Tiger but panicked when he fell apart on 14 and 15 and went from 2-up to 1-down and pounded Padraig. Ended up only making $40 from it instead of $160, blah..
Looking forward to Sunday Night Baseball and the NFL Hall of Fame game.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 9TH, 2009
SPOT PLAYS OVER 31.5 NFL buffalo / tennessee TEAM TOTAL OVER 17 tennessee titans TENNESSEE TITANS ML TENNESSEE TITANS 2ND HALF (doesn't matter what the score is, the backups playing tonight are so much better than buffalo's)
Buffalo's starters are only in for 10-12 plays tonight, and Vince Young is supposed to be playing the 2nd Half For Tennessee.
well won the team total and game total over.. need titans to hang on now to win ML.. oh and i parleyed the over and ml together to, so really would like them to hang on lol
Just laid it LARGE on the Yankees to hang on for the win now they have a 1-0 lead in the 8th, Live Betting
0
UGH!! Bad call on the 2nd half lol
well won the team total and game total over.. need titans to hang on now to win ML.. oh and i parleyed the over and ml together to, so really would like them to hang on lol
Just laid it LARGE on the Yankees to hang on for the win now they have a 1-0 lead in the 8th, Live Betting
The New York Yankees are officially my new favorite team.. which is weird cuz they used to always be the team I cheered for when the Jays were always eliminated in May.. HaHa
Wow.. I dropped $500 on NY after they took the 1-0 lead.. who woulda thought a team who hadn't scored since Thursday would score 2 in the 8th..
Thank You Johnny Damon.. Thank You Big Tex.. Thank You Nick Swisher.. Thank You Mariano Rivera.. WHEW....
+$96 on the NFL game.. turned out to be a great day, albeit long and tense, LoL.
Averted disaster tonight, still finished the week way down but the +$293 today helped a lot.
Tomorrow I will be doing something new.. hopefully I will have enough time to get everything done before game time.
Hope everyone had a great weekend and cashed some winners. Gonna sleep good tonight and get back to work tomorrow.
Cheers
0
The New York Yankees are officially my new favorite team.. which is weird cuz they used to always be the team I cheered for when the Jays were always eliminated in May.. HaHa
Wow.. I dropped $500 on NY after they took the 1-0 lead.. who woulda thought a team who hadn't scored since Thursday would score 2 in the 8th..
Thank You Johnny Damon.. Thank You Big Tex.. Thank You Nick Swisher.. Thank You Mariano Rivera.. WHEW....
+$96 on the NFL game.. turned out to be a great day, albeit long and tense, LoL.
Averted disaster tonight, still finished the week way down but the +$293 today helped a lot.
Tomorrow I will be doing something new.. hopefully I will have enough time to get everything done before game time.
Hope everyone had a great weekend and cashed some winners. Gonna sleep good tonight and get back to work tomorrow.
Not sure if I am going to get the full Playbook listed in time for tonight.. today is research and analysis day and I don't think I am going to have everything done in time for tonight's card.
The for sure plays tho are.
HFOUDL BALTIMORE
TOP 5 HOME TEAM NEW YORK YANKEES BOSTON RED SOX
I have just completed some study of the Top 5 Home Team System to see if it was just as good to play the teams at home on the RunLine, in order to reduce some of the high juice games.
The findings were not satisfying enough to recommend this added criteria.
The 3 extra losses incurred in June by the Dodgers (June1st series), Texas (June 8th series), and Dodgers (June16th series) would have been big enough losses to say not to do this. The Dodgers series especially, on the 16th, would have been the worst since it was a Double unit Play (Top5 Home vs. Bot5 Road).
I am now going to look to see if only playing the games with juice of -200 or more on the RL would be just as good as straight up.
The majority of my research today is looking at ML vs. RL in efforts to reduce high juice games.
Cheers
0
Not sure if I am going to get the full Playbook listed in time for tonight.. today is research and analysis day and I don't think I am going to have everything done in time for tonight's card.
The for sure plays tho are.
HFOUDL BALTIMORE
TOP 5 HOME TEAM NEW YORK YANKEES BOSTON RED SOX
I have just completed some study of the Top 5 Home Team System to see if it was just as good to play the teams at home on the RunLine, in order to reduce some of the high juice games.
The findings were not satisfying enough to recommend this added criteria.
The 3 extra losses incurred in June by the Dodgers (June1st series), Texas (June 8th series), and Dodgers (June16th series) would have been big enough losses to say not to do this. The Dodgers series especially, on the 16th, would have been the worst since it was a Double unit Play (Top5 Home vs. Bot5 Road).
I am now going to look to see if only playing the games with juice of -200 or more on the RL would be just as good as straight up.
The majority of my research today is looking at ML vs. RL in efforts to reduce high juice games.
Results from the study on the Top 5 Home Team System have now concluded. A new filter, or "criteria" has now been added. Explanation can be read on the spreadsheet here.. TOP 5 HOME TEAM
The plays for tonight stand.
NEW YORK YANKEES ML BOSTON RED SOX ML
Cheers
0
Results from the study on the Top 5 Home Team System have now concluded. A new filter, or "criteria" has now been added. Explanation can be read on the spreadsheet here.. TOP 5 HOME TEAM
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Going with 2 plays tonight on the +1.5 for the RunLine Blitz. Recovery Process continues tonight. Thankfully it's not a full board tonight, as I have been doing a lot of research for things today, and will continue tomorrow. I am confident this will be a winning week!
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 10TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
SEATTLE MARINERS +1.5 LA ANGELS +1.5
Recovery Process continues tonight. 4.31 / 9.21 Units have been recovered so far.
HFOUDL
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (game1 of 3)
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
NY YANKEES (game1 of 3) BOSTON RED SOX (game1 of 4)
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Going with 2 plays tonight on the +1.5 for the RunLine Blitz. Recovery Process continues tonight. Thankfully it's not a full board tonight, as I have been doing a lot of research for things today, and will continue tomorrow. I am confident this will be a winning week!
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 10TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
SEATTLE MARINERS +1.5 LA ANGELS +1.5
Recovery Process continues tonight. 4.31 / 9.21 Units have been recovered so far.
HFOUDL
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (game1 of 3)
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
NY YANKEES (game1 of 3) BOSTON RED SOX (game1 of 4)
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last night was solid, winning both RunLine plays and clearing the Boston Chase. A little concerned about the Baltimore Chase, we'll see what happens. I'm actually playing the Over tonight instead of the Baltimore win. The juice is way too high on this game and Chasing Baltimore on the ML tonight is not the wisest play. The Over is also Dave Malinsky's POD, and if you've been following this thread, you've seen me cash with his POD before. A few new plays for the HFOUDL page tonight. Playing them all except Milwaukee. Explanation found on spreadsheet.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 11TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
NEW YORK YANKEES MINNESOTA TWINS PITTSBRGH PIRATES +1.5 CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Recovery Process continues tonight. 7.74 / 9.21 Units have been recovered so far.
HFOUDL
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (game2 of 3) I am actually playing the Over here MINNESOTA TWINS CHICAGO CUBS MILWAUKEE BREWERS I am passing on this series
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
NY YANKEES (game2 of 3)
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last night was solid, winning both RunLine plays and clearing the Boston Chase. A little concerned about the Baltimore Chase, we'll see what happens. I'm actually playing the Over tonight instead of the Baltimore win. The juice is way too high on this game and Chasing Baltimore on the ML tonight is not the wisest play. The Over is also Dave Malinsky's POD, and if you've been following this thread, you've seen me cash with his POD before. A few new plays for the HFOUDL page tonight. Playing them all except Milwaukee. Explanation found on spreadsheet.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 11TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
NEW YORK YANKEES MINNESOTA TWINS PITTSBRGH PIRATES +1.5 CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Recovery Process continues tonight. 7.74 / 9.21 Units have been recovered so far.
HFOUDL
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (game2 of 3) I am actually playing the Over here MINNESOTA TWINS CHICAGO CUBS MILWAUKEE BREWERS I am passing on this series
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