Kreatture's Playbook

Great stuff you got going kreature.............
My opinion even though I do agree with what you said is that the lines starting around 2 weeks ago or so this time of year get very juicy even on teams that don't deserve it or public favs off the bat therefore dictating wager behavior. What happens? A win by 1 run or a loss. So blindly taking the biggest ML fav on the RL I feel is more riskier this time to the end. And I hate how some teams Like CHW get the nod for the largest ML fav of the day some times. Just my opinion I feel strong about is playing a system just off 1 parameter will collaspe sooner or later eating up or losing units. Filters do work but this system wich I do respect maybe ccan be tweeked with however, how - don't know, can be less riskier going on losing streaks therefore keeping won units on the year. Anyway though I used it earlier but not now because of this. Good luck to all who are still on the train.

I completely agree, it seems that the biggest favs now have less to do with match-ups and more to do with the higher record teams playing a low record team.
Another example today, with the White Sox. Mark Buehrle has not been very good lately and the Orioles matched up pretty well against him. There's no way that game should have been at that high of a line.
I agree, playing the biggest fav on the board may not be the wisest thing down the stretch, I wonder if prof8t has any numbers from past Septembers? I guess it wouldn't take that long to look, maybe I will do that later.

For myself tho, I will continue to play it the way I have been, cappin' games 1 by 1 and finding strong plays and good value.

Cheers 

Yes, absolutely. Going on a strong run gets one into a different frame of mind and often they "go nuts" with their pattern.

I assure you, this is not happening to me this time. The reason I wrote that is because I am thinking of changing my game plan. Yes, the game plan has worked well to this point, but I should always be on the lookout for ways to improve the plan.
If I continue playing the Chase style, then there definitely will not be an increase in Unit size for the time being, as right now I am at just over 1% (1.073) of my bankroll.
If I do change things up and go with an approach like I did on Saturday, by playing single games with no intention on chasing the losses (much like the way sports_Networks does his games), then things would look like they did that day. Meaning, the strong value plays could be played to win more than just the $35 Unit. I had 4 games where I played to win $50, because the value presented itself to me. I went 3-1 on those games which certainly helped the overall final tally for the day.

Now all that being said, I did not find many games I liked for today, so only played the one. So not all days will look like Saturday, where I had 9 plays on the board. Saturday just happened to be one of those days where there was a lot of value out there to be won.
I wish I had played the other 3 games I felt were strong today. It would have been a nice 4-0 day as Toronto, Texas, and Cleveland all won!

So, yes, it will be interesting to see how I decide to play it. The value which the board presents on a daily basis will most likely decide this for me.

Thanks for the comments, always enjoy reading others opinions when they offer value to the thread.

Cheers 

kreatture thanks for the great picks!! What I was wondering is if you ever thought about chasing the biggest dog of the day at plus 1.5 since it seems the highest favorite has not been doing that well?

Howdy there......... Thanks........   Maybe what we can come out of this bad stretch from prof8t's system is to find out if more losing streaks occured from here on out til the end in  past seasons. After all its not really the best team or match up getting the biggest ML line therefore bating people to hedge their losses on the RL. Result being to stop the system sometime earlier then season's end saving lost units.

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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Last week finished up strong, final tally of +18.26 which brings the Monthly total to +26.84 Units. Very encouraging after a horrific first week. Now sitting up +105.05 for the baseball system season, and +118.69 overall since the 1st of May. Hopefully things will continue to improve this week. A few big plays early on here, could set the week up nicely with some big wins tonight.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 24TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

BALTIMORE ORIOLES   +1.5   -120   game2
LA ANGELS   +165  


HFOUDL

LA ANGELS   (game1 of 3)   2 Unit Play

passing on the kc royals this series, the worst team in the league. putting money on a 3-18 home record team since the break isn't really the smartest thing in my opinion.. putting that extra unit down on the angels series instead, a much safer option


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

BOSTON RED SOX  -110   (game1 of 4)   2 Unit Play
     -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5
     top5 home team vs. bot5 2nd half team 2 unit qualifier


SPOT PLAY

BALTIMORE RAVENS   -3   -115
BALTIMORE RAVENS   -2.5   1ST HALF   -105
NEW YORK JETS   TEAM TOTAL UNDER 15.5





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

No play on the Angels runline.. never got the wager in in time

Leading everywhere else, hopefully can hang on. 

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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Great job by Boston to clear that chase on Game1 and the Baltimore Orioles prized prospect Chris Tillman, holding the fort there for the RunLine win. Not surprised by the Angels loss, am expecting them to get the job done tonight tho.
Well after a fairly low list of plays last week, get ready to hold onto your hat tonight, as FIVE new Top5 Home Team plays are on the schedule, and 2 new HFOUDL plays, making a total of 3 in play there (4 if you're actually chasing the Royals too).
If anyone is following the filters I have laid out for the Top5 then you will want to pay extra attention today to the notes, as there is a double unit play as well as some high juice games which will be played on the RL instead.
I'm skipping the movies tonight to enjoy some scoreboard watching and Madden NFL2010 on the PS3 with the roommates. Thankfully we have lotsa beer!! The Inglourious Basterds will wait til Thursday night!



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - AUGUST 25TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

NO PLAYS

due to the irregular number of plays in the other two systems tonight, including some to all ready be played on the runline, there will be no plays here tonight.


HFOUDL

LA ANGELS   (game2 of 3)   2 Unit Play
FLORIDA MARLINS   (game1 of 3)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   (game1 of 3)


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NY YANKEES   (game1 of 3)  
     -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   (game1 of 3)
CHICAGO CUBS   (game1 of 3)   2 Unit Play
     -200 juice qualifier, play rl -1.5
     top5 home team vs. bot5 2nd half team 2 unit qualifier
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS   (game1 of 3)
ATLANTA BRAVES   (game1 of 3)


see spreadsheet for full details






Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Angels RunLine is a strong play tonight. If I was picking any RunLine games tonight it would definitely be on my list. In fact, there seems to be a lot of strong RL games tonight.. maybe I am missing the boat here tonight..?? I am going to re-examine the games and see what I think.

No, if I only had 2 or 3 games tonight, it would not alter my decision to play the Angels on the RL instead of the ML. The Hfoudl System does not meet the -200 juice criteria like the Top5 Home Team does. The Hfoudl System will remain strictly on the ML for the remainder of the season.

There definitely will not be any parleying of System plays. I have found this is not good money management and should not be done. Altho the chances of both teams winning is high, what happens if you split? Besides feeling like crap, it's tougher to figure out how to proceed the next day. Been there, done that, not wanting to experience again.

Parleying, for me, is strictly for Spot Plays only.


Best of Luck tonight, hopefully we come out the other side smelling like roses!

Thanks JD232 

You as well, if you're wagering anything!

BOL tonight Kreatture

I was taking a look at your top 5 home team system.  I really like it and think in the long run that is a system that will definitely pay off.  I looked at your spreadsheet and saw July wasn't too good of a month and your write up said it was more due to poor money management.  Anything else contribute to that?  Those are some pretty big swings from June to July and then from July to August

July was definitely a learning experience for myself. I got on a roll and had a +52 Unit week, a very impressive 7 day run, and got carried away with myself and ended up in over my head. I ended up increasing my Unit size from $25 to $50, $75, $100 chases which my bankroll was not equip to handle that fast. Most of this was on the Red Sox as I was really on their bandwagon and they just weren't playing that well back then. I lost most of it on them, and the rest on a couple of Tampa Bay games I thought were good plays, even tho they had all ready won the chase in game 1. Lost a few hundred of that month's loss just on 2 games there. I also screwed up by trying to parley a CFL team, BC Lions, ML with a Red Sox and Giants game to help lower the juice, since the BC game was pretty much a lock for the win I thought. It wasn't, lol.
So that was the end of trying to parley huge favorites together as well. Good lesson to learn, altho a costly one.

The System itself was perfect, so no, I would say there was nothing else which contributed to the $$ loss, other than my own recklessness. It went 16-0 hitting 70% on all games (16-7) for July. Pretty hard to loss your shirt with a record like that, but I managed to do so, haha. Fortunately, I still had my pants!

I straightened myself out and finished the month strong, and haven't looked back since. August has been the most productive month yet, 17-0 for +21 Units and a per game clip of 65% (17-9). It was at 71% before going 2-3 last night.

Overall, it has been nothing but a moneymaker if played as I have it outlined. It has outperformed the HFOUDL System overall, both on the Chase, and Individual Games Record, altho both have been very solid which is why I also play that one.

It is something I will use next year as well, and because I have such detailed notes, I am hoping to be able to examine in depth over the off-season and make any necessary adjustments.
I will also be using this type of System for NHL as well, and possibly the NBA.


Thanks for taking the time to look at what I have done, I put a lot of effort into trying to make this work for myself. If others find some benefit out of this then that's a bonus. Giving back to the community here anyway I can is the least I can do, since if it wasn't for this site, I wouldn't be going down this beautiful path.


Cheers 

For anyone who put in an overnight wager on the Chicago Cubs for tonight, please note the pitching change for Washington.

"The Nationals signed Hernandez to a Major League contract on Tuesday night, six days after the Mets gave the veteran his unconditional release. Hernandez will be in the rotation and serve as a mentor for Washington's young starting pitchers. In fact, he will start against the Cubs on Wednesday night, while right-hander J.D. Martin and left-hander John Lannan will be pushed back a day and pitch on Thursday and Friday respectively."

I haven't found a book with an updated line yet, but I would imagine it will be lower than the -280 originally posted for Harden vs. Martin.

I think it's a great system and I really do appreciate the spreadsheet.  It's very clear on what is going on.  I hope you keep doing it for at least the NHL as there is no doubt I will follow it.

Less than an hour before game time on the Angels.. Been tossin an turnin all mornin an afternoon, not sure how to wager this..

It doesn't look like a great match-up on paper, but that is paper and that is why they play the games. Jackson has been pitching worse and worse as the season goes on and giving up more and more home runs. He still has a low ERA tho because he's been very lucky to avoid the big inning and has been getting out of a lot of trouble spots every game lately. You have to think that his "luck" is going to run out sooner than later, and an afternoon game in Anaheim could be the place.

Central team playing at 1pm on the West coast.. 11am their time. I don't think the record of those teams fares too good.
Joe Saunders was brilliant last season, but clearly not right this year. Will the 2 weeks off on the DL right his ship? I dunno..

Gonna check the line-up card and then decide.. 1st 5? Full 9? RL? Half the bet? Full bet?   Sheesh.. I don't enjoy these days. 

I've broken this game down the best I can. I honestly believe the stats, lineups, and weather today all favor LA. Detroit has stacked the lineup with righties instead of their 5 lefties, but the wind is blowing out for left-handed hitters, which favors LA.
Saunders is a ground ball pitcher as well, while Jackson has more flyball outs than groundouts this season. He may still have the 3rd best era in the AL, but it's over 4 in August, and he hasn't got past the 6th inning in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Gary Matthews, 6-10 career vs. Jackson, inserted into #9 slot today, key cog. Jackson's not great holding runners % favors the strong Angels running game and Chone Figgins career 7-13 vs. Jackson. I expect Matthews and Figgins to set the table for Hunter and Vlad.
Probably lots of runs scored today, thought about the over 10.. hopefully reads are right and Angels come out on top.

Playing LA ANGELS for Max Recovery