Posted:
#76
Broxton 7-0 2.76 era .. mney baby money.... dodgers world series... no one can stip em
0
Kreatture's Playbook
Posted:
#77
You Kreatt,
That was fucking hilarious. Thanks for the read. Unfortunately when I'm smashed I don't have the attention span to type out three sentences let alone that much. Thanks for the shoutout, too.
So I will surmise that you dominated the poolhall and met a pretty fucking hot girl. Sweet. Oh and cleared the chase. Pretty damn sweet night if you ask me (I pussied out and have about a half unit left to chase because I didn't go all the way with Boston as Game D).
I put in a live Matchbook bet for the Dodgers at like -125 after the bottom of the 7th. Good price I figured as long as they got Hanley out which they did. Funny ending with the bloop single. Again you probably enjoyed it more than I did. Not sure about them for the WS but they're very good. Problem is that Torre has overworked the shit out of the pen and their horses are not gonna last. Broxton's toe is a lingering issue, Tronc has never pitched more than 50 IP in a year (he's already at 60), Belisario is already on the DL, Mota is a timebomb, and Leach is inexperienced. Trouble. They should really look at getting another pen arm. I like STL for the NL.
Anyway, hope the morning isn't too rough for ya. It might be. And if you blacked out, at least you have a bit of a record of what you did last night. If you can decipher it. Haha.
That was fucking hilarious. Thanks for the read. Unfortunately when I'm smashed I don't have the attention span to type out three sentences let alone that much. Thanks for the shoutout, too.
So I will surmise that you dominated the poolhall and met a pretty fucking hot girl. Sweet. Oh and cleared the chase. Pretty damn sweet night if you ask me (I pussied out and have about a half unit left to chase because I didn't go all the way with Boston as Game D).
I put in a live Matchbook bet for the Dodgers at like -125 after the bottom of the 7th. Good price I figured as long as they got Hanley out which they did. Funny ending with the bloop single. Again you probably enjoyed it more than I did. Not sure about them for the WS but they're very good. Problem is that Torre has overworked the shit out of the pen and their horses are not gonna last. Broxton's toe is a lingering issue, Tronc has never pitched more than 50 IP in a year (he's already at 60), Belisario is already on the DL, Mota is a timebomb, and Leach is inexperienced. Trouble. They should really look at getting another pen arm. I like STL for the NL.
Anyway, hope the morning isn't too rough for ya. It might be. And if you blacked out, at least you have a bit of a record of what you did last night. If you can decipher it. Haha.
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Posted:
#78
WOOOOOO BABY YEAHHHHHHHHHHHH........ if you don't bet the Dodgers u had better bet the Philadelphia Phillies... I GUARANDAMNTEE it one of those 2 teams is in the WS for the NL.. no other team has remotely a chance in foggy hell..
I'll bet side bets up the ying-yang on that.. in the AL.. the Angels scare the beejeezus outta me.. they can roll... but the Red Sox are the TRUE talent of the AL, and this is a GREAT time to buy into them.. with the Yankees leading the division, buy LOW, WIN HIGH on the Red Sox. GuaranDAMNtee it.
Red Sox Dodgers World Series.. +whatever u can get it at, my book has it cloed at the moment.. my book sucks!!!!!!!!
And get the Jays now.. +105!!!!
Want a great play.. SEATTLE MARINERS .. ONLY IF VARGAS MAKES THE START.. this is the only guy who will win this game.. IF ANYONE ELSE starts this game.. take Cliff Lee for the Indians Sweep... rare indeed..
I'll bet side bets up the ying-yang on that.. in the AL.. the Angels scare the beejeezus outta me.. they can roll... but the Red Sox are the TRUE talent of the AL, and this is a GREAT time to buy into them.. with the Yankees leading the division, buy LOW, WIN HIGH on the Red Sox. GuaranDAMNtee it.
Red Sox Dodgers World Series.. +whatever u can get it at, my book has it cloed at the moment.. my book sucks!!!!!!!!
And get the Jays now.. +105!!!!
Want a great play.. SEATTLE MARINERS .. ONLY IF VARGAS MAKES THE START.. this is the only guy who will win this game.. IF ANYONE ELSE starts this game.. take Cliff Lee for the Indians Sweep... rare indeed..
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Posted:
#79
Ugh.. what hit me.. man what a night, how the heck did I make my way online and find the forums.. LoL
I guess I should make my picks when I'm drunk, cuz the Jays won 5-1 and Texas is up 7-1, haha.. no, no, that would not be a good habit.
Sorry I never got the Playbook in for today, but if u could decipher that mess from last night u would see the RunLine Blitz play was Texas Rangers.
If you click on any of the old links to the spreadsheets from previous posts, it will take u to the updated current one. Hopefully some people did that and saw Texas was put in there last night as the play.
Man I need some food.. cheers ya'll
I guess I should make my picks when I'm drunk, cuz the Jays won 5-1 and Texas is up 7-1, haha.. no, no, that would not be a good habit.
Sorry I never got the Playbook in for today, but if u could decipher that mess from last night u would see the RunLine Blitz play was Texas Rangers.
If you click on any of the old links to the spreadsheets from previous posts, it will take u to the updated current one. Hopefully some people did that and saw Texas was put in there last night as the play.
Man I need some food.. cheers ya'll
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Posted:
#81
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for such a late post, Mondays are always my busiest days with lots of data to look at and update. The card is chalk full of plays to start the week. Let's get to it!
Week 12 is in the books, it was a great bounce back week as I finished with my 2nd largest gain since starting this. A beautiful +27.48 Units!
Tons of plays tonight, lots of juice, and a few hidden gems. Let's hope to start the week off with a great start tonight!
Oh, and the Take From Poor, Give To Rich spreadsheet is now up and running. Take a look at let me know what you think!
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 27TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
BALTIMORE ORIOLES +120 (game1)
LA ANGELS +125 (game1 or 2)
HFOUDL
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (game1 of 3)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game1 of 4)
CINCINNATI REDS (game1 of 4)
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (game1 of 3) 2 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON RED SOX (game 1 of 4)
FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game 1 of 4) SERIES CHASE PLAY
TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH
Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week
RICH LA DODGERS (vs. st. louis) game1
RICH NY YANKEES (vs. tampa bay) game1
RICH LA ANGELS (vs. cleveland) game1
RICH BOSTON (vs. oakland) game1
RICH PHILADELPHIA (vs. arizona) game1
milwaukee (POOR WASHINGTON) game1
cincinnati (POOR SAN DIEGO) game1
baltimore (POOR KANSAS CITY) game1
la angels (POOR CLEVELAND) game1
SPOT PLAYS
Card is filled to the max, no extra spots here tonight.
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for such a late post, Mondays are always my busiest days with lots of data to look at and update. The card is chalk full of plays to start the week. Let's get to it!
Week 12 is in the books, it was a great bounce back week as I finished with my 2nd largest gain since starting this. A beautiful +27.48 Units!
Tons of plays tonight, lots of juice, and a few hidden gems. Let's hope to start the week off with a great start tonight!
Oh, and the Take From Poor, Give To Rich spreadsheet is now up and running. Take a look at let me know what you think!
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 27TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
BALTIMORE ORIOLES +120 (game1)
LA ANGELS +125 (game1 or 2)
HFOUDL
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (game1 of 3)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game1 of 4)
CINCINNATI REDS (game1 of 4)
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (game1 of 3) 2 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON RED SOX (game 1 of 4)
FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game 1 of 4) SERIES CHASE PLAY
TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH
Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week
RICH LA DODGERS (vs. st. louis) game1
RICH NY YANKEES (vs. tampa bay) game1
RICH LA ANGELS (vs. cleveland) game1
RICH BOSTON (vs. oakland) game1
RICH PHILADELPHIA (vs. arizona) game1
milwaukee (POOR WASHINGTON) game1
cincinnati (POOR SAN DIEGO) game1
baltimore (POOR KANSAS CITY) game1
la angels (POOR CLEVELAND) game1
SPOT PLAYS
Card is filled to the max, no extra spots here tonight.
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Posted:
#82
yo Kreatture, on the runline blitz, how come your games are diff than prof8t's? I've noticed that over the last couple days.
You take the biggest fav according to the moneyline, and then bet the RL, correct?
Example would be you having Baltimore and LAA for 2 picks tonight, where Prof8 has Boston.
Thanks for the info, love your work efforts bro.
0
Posted:
#83
Good luck tonight buddy. Baltimore's playing like shit tonight for you unfortunately. I'm on a bunch of spot plays (LAA game over, CLE TT over, ARZ ML, WAS ML, and a few more..quite a few winning picks tonight actually), but GL. I'm probably gonna play SEA tonight for the blitz...like the matchup.
0
Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:
yo Kreatture, on the runline blitz, how come your games are diff than prof8t's? I've noticed that over the last couple days.
You take the biggest fav according to the moneyline, and then bet the RL, correct?
Example would be you having Baltimore and LAA for 2 picks tonight, where Prof8 has Boston.
Thanks for the info, love your work efforts bro.
Please re-read the thread.. your answer will be found in Post #38 on Page 2. Thank You.
0
Posted:
#85
I am surprised by Baltimore's effort tonight.. they got off to a good start but couldn't get the big hit to send Chen to the showers early. Boston was an obvious play, I even stated that on the spreadsheet. Not sure why I didn't just lay the juice for the easy victory..
Just had the pleasure of watching Josh Willingham crush a grand slam for Washington.. that stinks.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 27TH, 2009
LOCKED IN
RUNLINE BLITZ
LA ANGELS +125 (game2)
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
Just had the pleasure of watching Josh Willingham crush a grand slam for Washington.. that stinks.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 27TH, 2009
LOCKED IN
RUNLINE BLITZ
LA ANGELS +125 (game2)
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Posted:
#86
Actually, I found my answer on your spreadsheet. My bad, I should have searched a little more. Damn you put a lot of effort into the tracking. I love being able to read your commentary and tracking info.
Thanks for the great efforts man.
I am in for the RL blitz. Started tonight with Boston. Also, it is my first attempt to use Labouch. MM
Thanks again.
0
Posted:
#87
I must stress to those on-looking.. the goal here is not to win every game on the board tonight, the goal is to clear all chases by the end of the intended period. The HFOUDL, Top 5 Home Team, and Fading Washington Nationals Systems are all to win 1 game in the intended series, while the Take From Poor, Give To Rich System is to clear a win over an entire week.
All plays start at Game 1 of the series, even if I do not personally like the match-up in game 1, i.e. the Dodgers game tonight and the Brewers game. These were not strong Game 1 plays tonight, but they must be played regardless. Missing out on some Game 1 wins due to my "personal feelings" would be detrimental to the success of the Systems. Game 1's which lose, simply move on to Game 2 the next day.
Cheers
All plays start at Game 1 of the series, even if I do not personally like the match-up in game 1, i.e. the Dodgers game tonight and the Brewers game. These were not strong Game 1 plays tonight, but they must be played regardless. Missing out on some Game 1 wins due to my "personal feelings" would be detrimental to the success of the Systems. Game 1's which lose, simply move on to Game 2 the next day.
Cheers
0
Posted:
#90
I am afraid I am not the best one to ask about how to play the Labouchere System, as it is something I have looked into, but decided to pass on for the time being. It is a "safer" way of betting, minimizing losses but reducing profits and is something I am not interested in.
It is also designed for "even" money bets, something you will rarely be getting in baseball. For myself, the Labouchere makes no sense to apply in terms of baseball wagering. I feel it would be more suitable for something like NFL Spread wagering, where the lines are consistently -110. You can adjust your line in these cases to adjust for the small juice lost.
In reference to your line above, you have set up a line where you would like to win $80. However, since the "juice" comes into play, your "A" bet only won you +25, instead of +40.
Your new line would be 20-20, and if you win that then the line is "cleared" and you would begin a new line, probably something like 25-25-25-25.
Check out this link on wikipedia, I found it made understanding the concept fairly easy. Labouchère system
Something in this article which I found interesting in the Reverse Labouchere Method. I think I would prefer this particular concept to the regular method.
Cheers
It is also designed for "even" money bets, something you will rarely be getting in baseball. For myself, the Labouchere makes no sense to apply in terms of baseball wagering. I feel it would be more suitable for something like NFL Spread wagering, where the lines are consistently -110. You can adjust your line in these cases to adjust for the small juice lost.
In reference to your line above, you have set up a line where you would like to win $80. However, since the "juice" comes into play, your "A" bet only won you +25, instead of +40.
Your new line would be 20-20, and if you win that then the line is "cleared" and you would begin a new line, probably something like 25-25-25-25.
Check out this link on wikipedia, I found it made understanding the concept fairly easy. Labouchère system
Something in this article which I found interesting in the Reverse Labouchere Method. I think I would prefer this particular concept to the regular method.
Cheers
0
Posted:
#91
I assumed you were doin' Labouchere since you were doing chase systems. Seems like that is the popular money mngmt around covers.
So, what are you doing for your money management?
Thanks for all your replies, it really helps.
I have been doing martingdale (sp.?) for the NBA and WNBA 3-game road trips, and MLB for the sweeps.
Afer finding this site, and reading about the flaws of the above, and going through some scary C bets, I am trying to figure out how to best make chasing work.
I still have not had a C loss in the 9 months since I started chasing, but I am afraid it will come sooner than later.
Thanks again for all your help.
0
Posted:
#92
Click on the Red Title to
access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of
the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well
as each individual month.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cleared 8 of the 17 System Plays last night, not a bad start. I would have been extremely happy if the Angels had not blown a 9th inning 6-4 lead as that would have made 11 cleared.
Tonight will be big, hopefully the majority of plays, if not all, will be cleared. I have a very busy week ahead with one of my roommates moving out and a new one moving in, as well as a few other events to attend. I will do my best to post the plays here before game-time each night. Always remember tho, the spreadsheets are always updated first, usually well before I am able to post the plays here. Clicking on any of the red System names found throughout the thread will take you directly to the most updated version.
Cheers
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 28TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
NO PLAY YET (game3)
HFOUDL
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game2 of 4)
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
NO PLAYS - all chases cleared til Thursday
FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game2 of 4) SERIES CHASE PLAY
TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH
Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week
RICH LA DODGERS (vs. st. louis) game2
RICH LA ANGELS (vs. cleveland) game2
milwaukee (POOR WASHINGTON) game2
baltimore (POOR KANSAS CITY) game2
la angels (POOR CLEVELAND) game2
Chase 2 - to win/lose a 2nd game this week
RICH NY YANKEES (vs. tampa bay) game1
RICH BOSTON (vs. oakland) game1
RICH PHILADELPHIA (vs. arizona) game1
cincinnati (POOR SAN DIEGO) game1
SPOT PLAYS
NO PLAYS YET
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cleared 8 of the 17 System Plays last night, not a bad start. I would have been extremely happy if the Angels had not blown a 9th inning 6-4 lead as that would have made 11 cleared.
Tonight will be big, hopefully the majority of plays, if not all, will be cleared. I have a very busy week ahead with one of my roommates moving out and a new one moving in, as well as a few other events to attend. I will do my best to post the plays here before game-time each night. Always remember tho, the spreadsheets are always updated first, usually well before I am able to post the plays here. Clicking on any of the red System names found throughout the thread will take you directly to the most updated version.
Cheers
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 28TH, 2009
RUNLINE BLITZ
NO PLAY YET (game3)
HFOUDL
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game2 of 4)
TOP 5 HOME TEAM
NO PLAYS - all chases cleared til Thursday
FADING WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (game2 of 4) SERIES CHASE PLAY
TAKE FROM POOR, GIVE TO RICH
Chase 1 - to win/lose 1 game this week
RICH LA DODGERS (vs. st. louis) game2
RICH LA ANGELS (vs. cleveland) game2
milwaukee (POOR WASHINGTON) game2
baltimore (POOR KANSAS CITY) game2
la angels (POOR CLEVELAND) game2
Chase 2 - to win/lose a 2nd game this week
RICH NY YANKEES (vs. tampa bay) game1
RICH BOSTON (vs. oakland) game1
RICH PHILADELPHIA (vs. arizona) game1
cincinnati (POOR SAN DIEGO) game1
SPOT PLAYS
NO PLAYS YET
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Posted:
#94
Taking a shot with a little Parley tonight, now that the LA/ST.L total has risen to 8.
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 28TH, 2009
LOCKED IN
SPOT PLAYS
Parley
UNDER 8 la dodgers / st.louis cardinals -110
OVER 8 toronto blue jays / seattle mariners -120
UNDER 8 atlanta braves / florida marlins -120
wager 1 Unit to Win 6.42
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 28TH, 2009
LOCKED IN
SPOT PLAYS
Parley
UNDER 8 la dodgers / st.louis cardinals -110
OVER 8 toronto blue jays / seattle mariners -120
UNDER 8 atlanta braves / florida marlins -120
wager 1 Unit to Win 6.42
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Posted:
#95
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JULY 28TH, 2009
LOCKED IN
RUNLINE BLITZ
LA ANGELS -115 (game1)
Angels game is about to start, going to hope the Red Sox can hang on with 3 outs to go. Wager has been placed as a new Game1.
Milwaukee is killing me, down big in that series if they can't come back here tonight. Will have to decide on how to dived up the loss moving forward to tomorrow..
Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success
0
Posted:
#96
Nice fucking throw Nick Green you little piece of shit. Ellis was all ready at 1st when you picked up the ball!!!!!!!
Red Sox blow it.. Brewers blow it.. Orioles blow it.. Cincy blows it.. Yanks blow it.. Angels down early.. looks like I'm broke and done.
Good Night everyone, I don't think my bankroll will survive an 0-13 night like tonight.
I'll enjoy reading everyone's posts still, looks like it's time to go find a real job again.. it was a fun run.
Red Sox blow it.. Brewers blow it.. Orioles blow it.. Cincy blows it.. Yanks blow it.. Angels down early.. looks like I'm broke and done.
Good Night everyone, I don't think my bankroll will survive an 0-13 night like tonight.
I'll enjoy reading everyone's posts still, looks like it's time to go find a real job again.. it was a fun run.
0
Posted:
#98
Kreatture, are you telling me you had that many plays going with no opposites parlay, or parlays? With an 0-13 you would have actually made money tonight. Don't throw in the towel, man. I think the only thing missing from your money management is to cover your ass with opposite parlays to avoid nights like tonight.
0
Posted:
#99
Yeah...fucking Angels. Can't believe it. I'm sorry buddy really rough night.
Did you hit the ML for LAA in the rich from poor? And you did get Philly so it wasn't a true 0-13.
I don't want to preach or anything as I'm not in any position of expertise to, but when I started my RL Blitz I read a lot about bankroll and units. I'm a poor college kid lol so my bankroll started off at $600 and is now around $1100. But the key to a chase system is that you need enough of a bankroll to suffer the losses.
For instance,
If I played $20 as my base unit for a 6 game RL Blitz, I would need the following amount of money for it to be feasible. Assuming a full 6 game chase at even money for each bet:
1: -$20
2: -$40
3: -$80
4: -$160
5: -$320
6: -$640
So to feel comfortable about pursuing this system and having the bankroll to go through the entire chase (and assuming you don't lose first thing through), you would need at least $640.
So when you are running a large amount of systems concurrently, it would be prescient to calculate the worst case scenario and have enough padding to not lose everything.
I'm not sure if this advice is too late and I hope to God it isn't. BOL with whatever you do.
Did you hit the ML for LAA in the rich from poor? And you did get Philly so it wasn't a true 0-13.
I don't want to preach or anything as I'm not in any position of expertise to, but when I started my RL Blitz I read a lot about bankroll and units. I'm a poor college kid lol so my bankroll started off at $600 and is now around $1100. But the key to a chase system is that you need enough of a bankroll to suffer the losses.
For instance,
If I played $20 as my base unit for a 6 game RL Blitz, I would need the following amount of money for it to be feasible. Assuming a full 6 game chase at even money for each bet:
1: -$20
2: -$40
3: -$80
4: -$160
5: -$320
6: -$640
So to feel comfortable about pursuing this system and having the bankroll to go through the entire chase (and assuming you don't lose first thing through), you would need at least $640.
So when you are running a large amount of systems concurrently, it would be prescient to calculate the worst case scenario and have enough padding to not lose everything.
I'm not sure if this advice is too late and I hope to God it isn't. BOL with whatever you do.
0
Posted:
#100
Tough night eh andy? Money closers have sure been trouble for me the past few days.. What is up with Fuentes, he never even recorded an out tonight?? At least they hung on for the ML which was a 2 game play, and yes Philly hung on as well. I'm mostly pissed about the Boston game.. but Papelbon saved a big game for me last Friday night, so I can't be too upset with him. He sure has struggled lately.
3-10 on the night.. I said going into the night I needed to clear 2 outta 3 of Milwaukee, Boston, and Angels.. only won 1, so I'm extremely disappointed right now..
You are right andy, it is tough running so many Systems and having so much in play. It's been a problem for me since the beginning. I have a hard time preaching the Patience aspect of all this to myself, and once I start rolling good I tend to get in over my head. The plays I always select to play always look so good to me. I have been able to consistently correct myself without much of a loss, but I have never even came close to a night like tonight before.
I started with $500 on May 1st, playing for $25 Units. I had it up as high as $3700 the 1st week of July but then hit a 2-week wall.. corrected myself last week and gained a lot back. I felt great about entering this week, but the plays have not come through. I am sitting just over $2000 now after tonight.. going backwards sucks.
I will update my spreadsheets and see how things look and go from there. The biggest decision will be on how to proceed with the Brewers series..
BOL
3-10 on the night.. I said going into the night I needed to clear 2 outta 3 of Milwaukee, Boston, and Angels.. only won 1, so I'm extremely disappointed right now..
You are right andy, it is tough running so many Systems and having so much in play. It's been a problem for me since the beginning. I have a hard time preaching the Patience aspect of all this to myself, and once I start rolling good I tend to get in over my head. The plays I always select to play always look so good to me. I have been able to consistently correct myself without much of a loss, but I have never even came close to a night like tonight before.
I started with $500 on May 1st, playing for $25 Units. I had it up as high as $3700 the 1st week of July but then hit a 2-week wall.. corrected myself last week and gained a lot back. I felt great about entering this week, but the plays have not come through. I am sitting just over $2000 now after tonight.. going backwards sucks.
I will update my spreadsheets and see how things look and go from there. The biggest decision will be on how to proceed with the Brewers series..
BOL
0
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