Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

Looks like Minnesota gets their first taste of weather ruining a great night for baseball. I'm sure fans are bitching about wanting their dome back now..
I'm fine with the postponement, since it means a double-header on Saturday. Double-headers usually go one of 2 ways.. most of the time it's a split, or else the better team wins them both.
The Mets game is the first filtered play of the Season tonight. Explanation is on the spreadsheet for those not familiar with how this works..
This leaves just the RL Play for tonight. Since the biggest favorite (Minnesota) has been cancelled, we'll jump to the next biggest favorite and play the Cardinals. I actually liked this match-up much more anyway, so I'm happy with this, too. Great spot for a Pirates letdown after a home sweep.


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 7TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

St. Louis Cardinals  -120          GAME 2


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

NO PLAYS





Continued Success 

Disturbing numbers, indeed! While this is one reason why I do not play April baseball.. I also hope these numbers balance out somewhat over the next couple of months.

I am happy to see the Home Team sweeps, but it is quite odd that 14 Road Teams have all ready invaded someone's field and left with a sweep.. of course 3 of those were by Tampa Bay, who have an insane 12-1 Road Record to start so far!

Thanks for sharing these updated numbers 

yes, somewhat odd. Let's hope it evens out and we get better results going forward.

A system I track (don't really play, only spot play sometimes) thats around 500+ and no losses in last 5 years (6G chase) even took a loss the last 2 series.

GMSI

I think most of these sweeps started in May.  I was kickin ass in April ready to increase unit size in May when the bottom fell out.

I have received a few PM's about running a labby on this.. so I thought I would just address them all right here.

Please keep in mind that these thoughts are only in regard to MLB and the Systems I am running..

Honestly, I am not a fan of the Labouchere Money Management System. No one has ever been able to convince me as to why it is so much better than a Modified Martingale. Many will think I am crazy for thinking this, but I've had no problem with it.
In my opinion, the Lab is supposed to be a "safer" wagering style, which minimizes your losses, but also minimizes your profits.
Frankly, I am not interested in minimizing my profits, and I simply do not believe in losses.

If I was doing an NHL System, then yes, I see value in running the Lab style. Any System where you expect to have 7-8 losses will leave the Chaser busted at the door. If you're only expecting 1 or 2 losses, and have a solid plan on how to recover those losses, then I prefer a Modified Martingale. This is my own personal preference tho, and like I said on the Master page of the Top 7 Home Team System spreadsheet, I actually recommend most people to run a Lab style for this. It is better suited for most people's taste, and wagering safety.

I honestly don't know how many Units the Labouchere would produce for this, but obviously it would still be a nice profit.
I have no interest in explaining how to run a Lab, as there is all ready an extreme amount of info in almost every thread on here about how the Labouchere works. You should know how to set up your own lines by now. I don't like telling people how to manage their own money. Hopefully, you can appreciate this..

***************************************************************

However, here is what I am going to do here.. purely for 2 reasons:

1) The only Professional I have ever come across who I have come to respect, is Tod Wilkinson. Most of you probably are more familiar with the group he is part of, PSIC (Platinum Sports Investing Club). I don't know Tod personally, but I would love to meet him someday. He is a wealth of great knowledge and really knows his stuff. I followed his NHL System this past year for research, but I did not play it. All the links in other threads usually point to his version of the Labouchere.. once again, found here:

He swears by it, and makes it work.. he's done his years and years of homework, so it must work pretty damn good.

2) My curiousity has been peaked enough while writing this, that I am now interested in seeing a direct comparison. At the very worst, it is yet another tracking tool which can be used in future System Analysis. That is never a bad thing.



I am open-minded enough to try this, and see how it goes.
I will setup a very aggressive version of the Labouchere for comparison sake. I still recommend setting up your own lines, which you are comfortable with. Mine will be used strictly for a comparision. I will possibly add a new Tab onto the spreadsheets which can be used for tracking, maybe..

I'm tired of talking about this now.. I'm going out for a drink.

Cheers 

I think it will be an interesting comparison.  Although, I can't guarantee it, I think if you run the very aggressive labby system you can actually make more units, but it can also have you making pretty large wagers early in a series.  The key is to not add numbers unless you have a series loss, just add the amount to the last number of your line.

RIZZ you are absolutely right.You can labby the sytem well into September to increase your profit.See post # 24.You can also add numbers to average down your bet size.

Good luck.

I've set up a Money Management page on both System Spreadsheets..

I'm always learning new shit when I do stuff like this, that's one of the good things about this business - you never stop learning.

I would like you fine folks to take a look at it and let me know what you think. I know the Unit sizes of $50 are probably a lot more than what most of you use, but I wanted a more realistic example than plugging in $5 Units..


I'm also intrigued by reddevil's example of his labby line.. has anyone else used that style before?? I have never seen it.. I just spent 20 minutes running every example of a win and loss over a 6 game Chase, with various odds. It does, indeed, produce the same # of Units as a straight Martingale.. however, I noticed if you had a 3 or 4 game losing streak, then every bet after that would be extremely large until you completely cleared the line. Not sure if I'm interested in that.. altho, if you did lose 6 games in a row, the overall loss was quite a bit less.
Still tho, I don't find it interesting enough to use it. That doesn't mean it's bad, it's just not for me.


Cheers 

Kreat, i don't folow you on this. You say that the wagers would get large with a losing streak on the Lab. But martingale would be even larger on a losing streak, no?

Martingale would be a couple large wagers than a reset back to normal. On the LAB a couple deep chases in a row tends to make your lines extremly fat and keeps you playing at much higher amounts for a little longer.

IMO the LAB method is better but it all depends on your tolerance bankroll. The LAB method does allow for a bigger margin of error I would say.

The problem with the lab lines is if your lines are like this

5-5

5-5

5-5

And you lose say the first 2 games and win the 3rd, well you still lost money.  Now what if we martingaled our lines like this

5-5

10-10

20-20

This way depending on line you should likely be making money each series.

Sorry Nole, I guess I didn't explain that very well..

I meant after you lose 3 or 4 games in a row, then win 1.. the Lab wagers would still be quite high for a number of games in a row, but the Martingale resets back to a base bet after each win. This was only in reference to reddevil's labby example, I don't know if regular Lab lines are like this..

After having a night to sleep on it, I am thinking of just scraping that entire page I made up last night. I am not as familiar with the Labouchere, and I don't believe I set it up very well. I was trying to use a starting bankroll which might be normal for most people on here.. but in reality, you need a much larger bankroll than $1000 to play that style of Labouchere with $50 Units.

I am actually gonna implement that style directly to last year's results.. I have all the games listed in a much more concise file which I can go through and test it on.

Not sure if I'm heading out for the day yet.. if not, I'll run that this afternoon.

Cheers 

KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 8TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

Minnesota Twins  -120          GAME 3


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

Minnesota Twins  -120          GAME 2 of 4
  -- Juice Alert, Play -1.5 RL
  -- 2 Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team





Continued Success 

so with Minn listed twice it appears as if you putting in 2 separate wagers to keep the chases apart as well as for accounting purposes?

Minnesota is the play for the RunLine Blitz System, and is a Game 3 wager.
Minnesota is also the play for the Top 7 Home Team System, and is a game 2 wager.

Yes, when I have the same play on both Systems, I place 2 separate wagers in order to keep the accounting easy to follow.

I forgot to mention, but the Minnesota play is Game 1 of the double header, which starts in 6 minutes.
Hopefully.. there will be no more plays today.

Cheers 

okay guys I was screwing around and didn't hit confirm on my twins wager which should hopefully mean guaranteed victory for all this afternoon! 

The labby, martingale, grand martingale debate could consume the thread.  There are advantages and disadvantages between them all.  The key is just to play the style fits you and your bankroll best

Kreatture, when you were running the RL Blitz last season, did you remember if there were quite a few back to back winning days?  Or was it more like a LLWLWLLLWLLW type of system?  To where you really need to straight chase it to make a profit.

Here are the results from last May and June. After that, I deviated from the original System and started playing 2 or 3 games on the same day.

MAY

W L W L W L W LL W LL WWWW L W L W LLL W L W L WW

JUNE

L W L WWWW LLLL WWWW L W LL WWW LL W L


Cheers 

Nothing wrong with +15 units and +14 units!  Was this pretty consistent through all of last season then?  Averaging close to 15 units a month?

I'm calling this Minnesota game a loss. If some miracle happens in the final 2 innings, I'll happily eat crow and change this.
This is disgusting that this series is going to a Game 3 all ready. These Top Home Teams vs. Bottom Road Teams didn't go to a Game 3 until September last year. Seems like all Systems are taking a beating right now.. but the thing about a System is it should not matter what game it wins on, just the fact that it does win. We'll see what happens tonight.

KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 8TH, 2010


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

Minnesota Twins  -175          GAME 3 of 4
    -- 2 Unit Play, top 7 home team vs. bot 7 road team


 I've all ready encountered a problem with the example money management page I set up. I tried to use an example starting bankroll of $1000, cuz I thought that might be more realistic for you guys.. but I set it up with $50 Units, which is more realistic for me. $50 Units should have a bankroll of around $5000 to be comfortable.

If I am going to run an example money management system, then it will either have to be shown relative to my own bankroll, or else lower it down to like $10 Units.
I might just run the Lab lines for last Season and see what the results would have been and scrap that page.. it will take some work, but it may be simpler than trying to compare both sides with unrealistic examples.


Get it done tonight Baker.. I drafted you in my Fantasy League for a reason..




Continued Success 

Last year these were my results.. like I said tho, I deviated from the main System once July hit..

MAY - 13Units
JUNE - 14Units
JULY - 21Units
AUGUST - 20Units

Someone looked at parleying the top 2 favs, but they never stuck with it. I don't think the results were that great.
I am tracking both top favs this season tho on the spreadsheet.. if you were to parley them every day, so far your record would be 6-28.
So far tho, I've been intrigued with just playing the 2nd top fav on the RL.. the odds are considerably better, and it is hitting at a higher clip.
Playing the top fav has always been profitable over the long run, but maybe playing the 2nd fav would be even more profitable..??
Also, heavy public money is always on the top fav each day, putting a red flag on the games to start with.. less public money falls on the 2nd fav, so would it make sense that these games can fly under the radar better..?

Food for thought..

I guess this might be a  stupid question if we have a 2,000 BR how do I know how much to bet in each game. Do I look at the modified Martingale and try to figure this out?

If this is the only system you are playing and you are using martingale, I would bet to win 20-30 per game.....

I am really frustrated right now by trying to set up a good example for comparison for everyone.. I've been reading a ton of stuff from PSIC all day and my head is just too full of numbers right now. I'm this close to scraping the entire thing..

Rizz is right.. the debate can go on forever about which Money Management to use, and how to use it. Use whatever you are comfortable with.

I'm sorry guys, but I just can't deal with this right now.. I'm going out for dinner and I'll figure out what to do here later tonight..

Cheers 

Don't sweat it kreatture, just focus on the system and picking winners.  If anyone has any particular questions regarding running an aggressive labby line management plan PM me and I can help you out in order to not clog up the thread.