Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

Guys, I just posted this over in SuperEagle's thread, and I know it's super late notice, but there's still about 6 minutes before game time to get a bet in.

Ace-Ace, which is who inspired SuperEagle to start his very successful thread here, is currently on a 3-game losing streak and has the Texas Rangers tonight -1.5.

I think this is a good time to jump on board with him for the next few games until he gets a win. It's a good opportunity to pick up an extra Unit or 2. I expect he will hit a winner within the next 3 picks, so let's get that bonus money!

TEXAS RANGERS -1.5

Ack, I wish I snuck in that Rangers play!  Was at work following the Yankees game on my phone. 

Sucks they lost straight up, but from what I've seen they've held their own when it's come to the RL Blitz plays, so I guess all is forgiven.  GL tomorrow!!

Yeah, I apologize for not getting that posted a lot sooner. I really had no intention of playing anything else in MLB after the Cubs lost and went straight to work on World Cup. I was reminded of that play at the last moment.

Pretty shitty day overall, but that will happen once in awhile. Fortunately, the good days far outnumber the bad.

I'm pretty pumped for an exciting sports weekend!

The Runline Blitz has been a huge success the past couple years, but could it be even better..   



At the moment, we chase the top favorite of every day and we must admit, it works very well. If you notice on the spreadsheet I have also been tracking the 2nd biggest favorite of the day and their results. Surprisingly, or unsurprisingly, the results have been almost identical with the top favorite having a slight 1-game lead.

Overall Record
Top Favorite:  31-0
2nd Favorite:  30-0

Individual Games Record
Top Favorite:  31-34
2nd Favorite:  30-35

Deepest Chase
Top Favorite:  5 Games (1 time)   /  4 Games (5 times)
2nd Favorite:  5 Games (2 times)  /  4 Games  (3 times)


So what about the idea of running a 2nd Runline Blitz on the 2nd Favorite of every day..



So what are the thoughts on this idea?

• Is it good..? 
  
• Is it risky..? 
  
• Is it head scratching time..? 
  
• Or is it beer drinking time..? 

The next post will present another alternative to this.. Another idea..

Carrying on the idea from the previous post (#229) let's continue the discussion on the Runline Blitz.

What if we could combine the top and 2nd favorite into one.. 

Explanation:  Whichever Chase (Top or 2nd) is deeper into it's individual chase, we play that game as our Runline Blitz game for the day..

Example: 
DAY 1: Play Top Fav
Top Fav GAME 1 - WIN
2nd Fav GAME 1 - WIN     both win..

DAY 2: Play Top Fav - since both are still on game 1
Top Fav GAME 1 - WIN
2nd Fav GAME 1 - loss

DAY 3: Play 2nd Fav - since 2nd fav is on game 2, which is deeper than top fav's game 1
Top Fav GAME 1 - loss
2nd Fav GAME 2 - WIN

With the above example, we would have made 3 Units, instead of just 2 if we were playing just the Top Fav exclusively, each day.
So you say.. Would this produce more Units..??


Not only would this produce more Units, but it also reduces the risk of going deeper into our Chase. Here are this year's numbers:

Runline Blitz
Top Favorite only: 31-0  (31-34)
2nd Favorite only: 30-0  (30-35)

Criss-Cross Blitz: 35-0  (35-30)

The Game-by-Game breakdown numbers are on the spreadsheet, but let's include them here for side-by-side direct comparison..

Top Favorite
Game 1:  14-18
Game 2:    7-10
Game 3:     5-5
Game 4:     4-1
Game 5:     1-0

2nd Favorite
Game 1:  12-18
Game 2:    7-12
Game 3:     8-3
Game 4:     1-2
Game 5:     2-0

Criss-Cross
Game 1:  20-16
Game 2:     6-9
Game 3:     5-4
Game 4:     3-1
Game 5:     1-0


It's pretty easy to notice the increased number of Winners on Game 1, and Game 1 Winners means more Units in the long run.
The strategic thinking behind this is that we are placing our $$ on a game which technically should have a higher percentage of winning, even tho we know that is not really true. If one of the chases is on a Game 1, and the other is on a Game 4, we have to believe the Game 4 has a higher chance of winning since these Chases always hit on Game 4 or 5..

The above numbers show a play on the Top Favorite when both chases are on the same game #. If we actually handicapped the 2 games available on these days, it should be believed we could increase our Wins even further, since some days we would chose to play the 2nd Favorite if we found it more favorable. Much like we handicap now when 2 games open within 5 cents of each other and make the better choice for the System.

So.. there we have it. Two viable options on how we could make the Runline Blitz even more profitable than what it all ready is for us.
I would like to hear some feedback on these ideas and how you would like this to proceed.
This is not just a testing thread like some of the others in the forum, I actually wager all these plays and will wager on anything new which we set up, if it looks profitable.

I know there are a large number of people who view this, based on the daily view counts alone, and a number of people who are wagering on this System right now. Please drop a comment on how you would like this to proceed, this is for your benefit as well as mine. I will create more spreadsheets, if need be, and continue to track everything properly.

With the Top 7 Home Team having no Official plays during the next 2 weeks of Interleague, I am looking at starting this right away.
Thank you for your time.

Eagles season-ticket holder right here. I'm getting tired of going to the games at this point. It's been 10 long years of going and getting emotionally beat down...

I've used the 2nd fav., but just for recovery when it gets to a Game 3.  Personally, I would go with the combination Blitz you explain in #230.  My reasoning, though, is purely personal.  I run the Top 7 chase, the RL Blitz chase, and a totals chase system.  I'm not crazy about running a 4th separate chase.  Again, that's just me.  It certainly looks like the 2nd fav. is a viable chase system.  I think we'd have to resign ourselves, though, to betting the Yankees on the RL almost every night at the rate they're going.  The lines, even on the RL, are getting a little inflated, don't you think?  It some point, you have to think that they'll cool off a little, and that could be bad for us.

first off: hats off, kreatture. I've been reading your threads for quite some time now and am impressed by the thorough and balanced way you approach all the systems. way to go!

Based on post 230, it looks like you essentially have two chases.
#1 fav
#2 fav

On day 3 you show game 1 as a loss. That could just have well been a win correct? Or is that someway linked to #2 fav?

The criss-cross blitz system looks like an improvement to me, based on how you explained it, over the already great runline blitz system.  I have a few different ideas to add to the discussion as well.  Feel free to post any honest remarks to them.  I have no problem with criticism of these ideas in the thread.  My thinking is this:

If you are going to be using a chase system, then you are eventually going to get a win, which can recover all losses and still show a profit with progressive betting.  So why even bet on negative odds?  Why not bet on positive odds?

Positive odds will have you bet less on each bet.  You won't have to increase your bets nearly as much to still show a profit.  It won't tie up as much of your bankroll etc.  All these factors make it easier to run more than one betting system as well.  So here are the two ways i am thinking that you and the rest of us could run a system betting on positive odds:

Parlay the 1st and 2nd favorite and chase that.

This may extend it to a 7 or maybe even 8 game chase in the worst case scenarios but most of the time i'm sure it will hit in less than 4.  I haven't backtested it at all but i am just guessing. 

Another way to do it would be to have a top underdog system.  Why not just chase the best underdog of the day?  This puts us in a much better situation with the juice.

Just my thoughts.... feel free to make any comments or suggestions about them

Thanks for the comments guys, appreciate all input. I will respond to each comment individually later when I have more time. Today has been a great day of hot sun outside while listening to the World Cup action. Hope everyone enjoyed the 1st 2 games! I'm not going to be posting my World Cup plays cuz I'm no expert on Soccer, but I've received input from some Wiseguys on how they approach soccer and believe I have a very solid Game Plan for the Group Stage and will make a nice profit. A good start so far, making 2.6 Units today.

The Top 7 Home Team System is officially in a hiatus during Interleague, but I will be playing some spot series if they look like a solid match-up. It is completely up to you whether you want to also play these series, as they are not Official plays. Any Units won/lost will be added to the System Totals, but the win/loss game record and system record will not be affected.

I have not had enough time to decide on the Runline Blitz options, so we will proceed as scheduled until further notice. I had a couple new ideas which came to me while I was baking in the sun this afternoon and I want to back-test them a bit to see if they have any merit. The Yankees play tonight concerns me with the injury to ARod and how hot Houston has been. Myers has looked sharp. The juice has come down a lot so it's up to you, but a play on Detroit tonight as Game 2 might not be a bad play. Then again, these ARE the Yankees and they seem to be able to dominate on any given night.

Best of Luck this weekend, hit 'em hard!

Cheers 



     -- I have decided to personally play the Tigers RL (2nd favorite) tonight, instead. This is completely up to you, but I feel the Tigers are the better option tonight. The lines are the same right now.



ON THE SIDE

CLEVELAND INDIANS  -123     Top Play


These plays all represent good value as far as Situational & Statistical Analysis. These come from not only my own analysis, but also of a group involvement, not on Covers. They are not Chase plays.







Continued Success 

Well first of all, I hope you took my advice and played Detroit yesterday for the Runline Blitz, as the Yankees gave up that late run to only win by 1. So, technically, the System will say Game 3 today but our bankroll shows Game 1.

Quite a shocker in the World Cup this morning with Greece losing outright 2-0! At least the Under cashed and Argentina is all ready out to an early lead. Look for England to crush the USA later this afternoon.

Another warm, sunny day here so I won't be inside. We'll update everything later.






ON THE SIDE

NO PLAYS








Continued Success 

good work

appreciated by many

must be expensive flying in from Pakistan every week for ten years. a season ticket holder who is, "tired of going to the games"   the attention factor of bullshit never seizes to exist in the system & strategies forum....

Maybe he is from Pakistan, but lives in Philadelphia..? I don't know, and it doesn't really matter.. nole is a regular here and considered a good guy by me.

Ease up, none of this shit in my thread..

Came in to place my wager for England (thank you American sentimentalists for driving this line down) and have noticed this is officially going to be a play now. A lot of reverse line movement going on with this game, tons of money continuing to pour in on San Fran while the ML has dropped about 13 cents on them.
Oakland was a lean before, now it is a confirmed Top Play.

Back out for some sun!

Cheers 


ON THE SIDE

OAKLAND A'S  +112          Top Play








Continued Success 

Nice job by Derek Sanderson Jeter today! Yankees keep rolling and so does the Runline Blitz!

Shitty day for me personally in the World Cup. England completely dominated the US in the 2nd half, it wasn't even close, but couldn't score the winner. I guess that's soccer for ya.. Hopefully will rebound tomorrow with Slovenia (win or draw, under) and Serbia (win).

Guys I am adding another play tonight. It starts at 8:35 ET. It's the Under 6.5 in the Seattle/San Diego game. Now this would be Game 2 in that west coast system that sportsbath showed us, but this is not why I'm playing it. Here's why..

Joe West is the umpire
Joe calls a lot of strikes and likes the game to carry at a swift pace. Remember this is the ump who was very outspoken about how "pathetic" the Red Sox and Yankees were with how long their games were going.
Statistical Analysis
4-9 O/U on Season
0-4 O/U in last 4 (average 5.4rpg)
1-5 O/U in last 6 Interleague games
Series History
75% Under in games played in San Diego
San Diego Key Trends
1-12 O/U on Saturdays
0-6-1 O/U vs. great pitchers with whip <1.15
0-4-1 O/U last 5 vs. lefties
0-5 O/U last 5 as home dog

This is all enough for me to make the Under 6.5 in the Seattle/San Diego game a Top Play!


ON THE SIDE

SEATTLE/SAN DIEGO  UNDER 6.5     Top Play

I really hate interleague baseball.. not posting any more plays until this shit is over with.

Isnt it weird how interleague play changes everything.  You would think it wouldnt matter that much, that baseball is just baseball.  Hang in there Kreature.

kreatture,

Don't people realize that many posters use a rediculous country name in their profile for laughs?

No, Im not from Pakistan. It's a joke.

And yes, going to 8+ games every seaon for 10 years is getting tiring. You have to be in the lot by 7 am at the latest for a 1pm start. I live 1.5 hrs from philly.

10 yrs ago i lived closer and had no kids. Now I am 10 yrs older and farther away, and have 2 kids. So, how is this BS?

Why is it always a prospect with less than 100 posts, with no photo?

Sorry Kreatture, did not want to clutter up your thread. Just had point that out.

I bring it up b/c that is always how it is. And how did I OFFEND anyone? I was the one who was ripped.

Iam done this crap. Go to another thread.

K;

Although I realize I run the risk of sounding like Nervous Nellie here, my understanding of Filter #1 was NO interleague play.  What has changed your mind on operating outside the system?