Posted:
#26
Western Michigan -6.5 november 26
Risking 115.12 to win 104.65
current bankroll before wager 2093.11
0
Kelly Criterion put to the test.
Posted:
#29
[Quote: Originally Posted by dj_destroyer] You don't know what Kelly is. 
DJ I appreciated the fact that you may know everything and may think I am doing something incorrectly.. Why dont you enlighten me instead of saying I dont know what something is. Man ignorant college kid go to class!!
DJ I appreciated the fact that you may know everything and may think I am doing something incorrectly.. Why dont you enlighten me instead of saying I dont know what something is. Man ignorant college kid go to class!!
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
Rule #1: Thread Moderator should understand his own rules..
Rule #2: Thread Moderator should understand his own rules..
Kelly Criterion is not for the average amateur.. You might want to look up exactly how to set up the Kelly before attempting such an effort..
How do you know you will hit 57% winners?
You are going to run this thread for 1 year..?? Well, all the power to you, would love to see it.. but you need to understand what exactly you're betting first..
Over/Under -- 3 weeks +144/-156
Cheers..Yep.. I just quoted myself.
Apparently the thread's author thought I was being supportive in some way and did not understand the heavy dripping sarcasm from my post.. so in light of DJ's recent post which was destroyed (did you see what I did there? No.. probably not..) by the thread's author with a ridiculous comment.. I say again..
I STRESS.. HEAVY emphasis on Rule #1.. followed by even HEAVIER emphasis on Rule #2. You do not know what the Kelly Method is.. and when you say it should be explained to you, instead of just saying you do not know what it is, I can only say - you created the thread titled such..
Current Odds have been pulled from the board, due to the fact this thread probably will last beyond the 3 weeks I gave it, but not at the rules originally outlined by the thread's author. Therefore, all previous wagers have been refunded due to a thread disqualification.
Inside sources do cite the following lines, if they were to re-open..
Over/Under -- 3 Weeks +400/-465
Please read the fine print to understand all the details which pertain to your wager.. something which this author should also take into consideration.
CHEERS
0
Posted:
#35
Good luck with your thread bud!!! I thought 57% was right on my assesment of this game thanks!!! I absolutely know what the kelly is do you? Sorry man but if you want to educate yourself please educate yourself on your own plays watch my bankroll rise while yours declines. And that is now a challenge that is a fact. If I start a thread Ill finish it.
UNLIKE SOMEPEOPLE> GOOD LUCK KID
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Posted:
#36
One more thing if my thread is bothering you so much why do you insist on looking at it. I checked your thread once and it made me puke. And stop telling me Im doing the kelly wrong ok. I base my percentage of my estimating win percentage for a game. Get over it man your just jealous. DJ Destroyer money management is what I excel in if I fail its on me my money not yours not anyones if people choose to follow great if not thats great too.
GO BLUE!!!
0
Posted:
#39
Ok, here we go:
1) Kelly Criterion
Kelly is used to determine the optimal wager amount given a player's edge. The formula for this is given:
1) Kelly Criterion
Kelly is used to determine the optimal wager amount given a player's edge. The formula for this is given:
w = (bp - q) / b
where w is the wager amount, b is the combined odds, p is the probability, and q is 1 - p. So let's solve this using your play as an example.
w = (10/11)(.57)-(.43)/(10/11)
w = 9.09%
You're overbetting Kelly which has been proven to be a bit aggressive to begin with. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe you capped this game at 57%. That's a monster fucking edge that would have already been pounded and corrected by real sharps.
2) Your Challenge
You have no credibility around here, no respect, no name, no loyalty, etc. Why would I waste my time stomping your ass in a challenge?
Build up your reputation first, then come at me when it's worth my while. I've already silenced one member through a challenge, I will do it again.
3) Your Thread
There's no solid accounting yet you claim awesome money management. There's no real profits yet you claim to be a profitable capper. There's no finish to this thread in sight yet you claim you finish all your threads (all the while insinuating that I don't finish mine).
Well mtp, time to let your picks do the talking... (Here is the link to my picks doing the talking, just in case you were wondering)
The only reason I ever stop by this thread is to hope it has either improved drastically or just disappeared all-together. So far, neither has happened. So if my current journal makes you puke, I'd hate to see what happens every time you come in here.
And oh ya, I'm so jealous.
where w is the wager amount, b is the combined odds, p is the probability, and q is 1 - p. So let's solve this using your play as an example.
w = (10/11)(.57)-(.43)/(10/11)
w = 9.09%
You're overbetting Kelly which has been proven to be a bit aggressive to begin with. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe you capped this game at 57%. That's a monster fucking edge that would have already been pounded and corrected by real sharps.
2) Your Challenge
You have no credibility around here, no respect, no name, no loyalty, etc. Why would I waste my time stomping your ass in a challenge?
Build up your reputation first, then come at me when it's worth my while. I've already silenced one member through a challenge, I will do it again.
3) Your Thread
There's no solid accounting yet you claim awesome money management. There's no real profits yet you claim to be a profitable capper. There's no finish to this thread in sight yet you claim you finish all your threads (all the while insinuating that I don't finish mine).
Well mtp, time to let your picks do the talking... (Here is the link to my picks doing the talking, just in case you were wondering)
The only reason I ever stop by this thread is to hope it has either improved drastically or just disappeared all-together. So far, neither has happened. So if my current journal makes you puke, I'd hate to see what happens every time you come in here.
And oh ya, I'm so jealous.
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Posted:
#40
You came at me Destroyer. I never said I was anything until you came at me. Ill be a better man and put up like you said. By the way I meant to say this is NOT a challenge instead of NOW. I apologize. Good luck and I wish we could all be on the same page. Future success I will no longer comment to anything just post plays hopefully winners!
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
Ok, here we go:
1) Kelly Criterion
Kelly is used to determine the optimal wager amount given a player's edge. The formula for this is given:
Ok, here we go:
1) Kelly Criterion
Kelly is used to determine the optimal wager amount given a player's edge. The formula for this is given:
w = (bp - q) / b
where w is the wager amount, b is the combined odds, p is the probability, and q is 1 - p. So let's solve this using your play as an example.
w = (10/11)(.57)-(.43)/(10/11)
w = 9.09%
You're overbetting Kelly which has been proven to be a bit aggressive to begin with. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe you capped this game at 57%. That's a monster fucking edge that would have already been pounded and corrected by real sharps.
2) Your Challenge
You have no credibility around here, no respect, no name, no loyalty, etc. Why would I waste my time stomping your ass in a challenge?
Build up your reputation first, then come at me when it's worth my while. I've already silenced one member through a challenge, I will do it again.
3) Your Thread
There's no solid accounting yet you claim awesome money management. There's no real profits yet you claim to be a profitable capper. There's no finish to this thread in sight yet you claim you finish all your threads (all the while insinuating that I don't finish mine).
Well mtp, time to let your picks do the talking... (Here is the link to my picks doing the talking, just in case you were wondering)
The only reason I ever stop by this thread is to hope it has either improved drastically or just disappeared all-together. So far, neither has happened. So if my current journal makes you puke, I'd hate to see what happens every time you come in here.
And oh ya, I'm so jealous.
where w is the wager amount, b is the combined odds, p is the probability, and q is 1 - p. So let's solve this using your play as an example.
w = (10/11)(.57)-(.43)/(10/11)
w = 9.09%
You're overbetting Kelly which has been proven to be a bit aggressive to begin with. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe you capped this game at 57%. That's a monster fucking edge that would have already been pounded and corrected by real sharps.
2) Your Challenge
You have no credibility around here, no respect, no name, no loyalty, etc. Why would I waste my time stomping your ass in a challenge?
Build up your reputation first, then come at me when it's worth my while. I've already silenced one member through a challenge, I will do it again.
3) Your Thread
There's no solid accounting yet you claim awesome money management. There's no real profits yet you claim to be a profitable capper. There's no finish to this thread in sight yet you claim you finish all your threads (all the while insinuating that I don't finish mine).
Well mtp, time to let your picks do the talking... (Here is the link to my picks doing the talking, just in case you were wondering)
The only reason I ever stop by this thread is to hope it has either improved drastically or just disappeared all-together. So far, neither has happened. So if my current journal makes you puke, I'd hate to see what happens every time you come in here.
And oh ya, I'm so jealous.
0
Posted:
#45
Credibility? Im not looking for that Im proving something to myself. Thats all that matters to me. I dont care who views this thread. SMDIO please leave the thread go talk about your conspiracy theories. This thread is for winners.
BANKROLL $2276
Record 4-2 WInning Percentage 66.67%
And by know means am I bragging its freaking 6 plays ok so dont start jabbing!!! Wow I start a thread and children want to ruin it grow up babies!!!
0
Posted:
#46
DJ if someone doesnt know what the kelly criterion was when I started this thread then look it up. Its that simple. Other than that it may look foreign to anyone. But like I said this is for me knowone else. Good Luck
GO BLUE!!!
DJ Destoyer show some respect I didnt go on your thread telling you what your did wrong or judging you, U just assume why dont you talk after I fail which clearly hasnt happened yet.
Good luck to you DJ
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Posted:
#48
Don't you care that you're over-betting an already aggressive system? I mean no disrespect (even though you just disrespected me), but this is the easiest and silliest way to lose your money much faster than you normally should
You said it correctly, "it's my money to lose, leave me alone", but then why post here? Are you seeking attention? Are you seeking advice?
If you're seeking attention, you ultimately FAIL. No one cares about you and they'll forget about this thread and start thinking or another one within 5 seconds of leaving it.
If you're seeking advice, we're giving you solid, well thought-out, mathematical advice that what you're doing is going to cost you a portion (if not all) of your bankroll in the very near future.
The people of covers are generally very helpful, and a few very smart minds have tried to HELP you in this thread. But instead of heading their advice, you are mocking them. This makes you an idiot and an asshole.
Hopefully you're okay with those two things. With that said, good luck 
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Posted:
#49
It seems DJ and SMDIO have issues not once did I disrespect you but you come on here telling me how work!!! And yeitim the one with the problem men look in the mirror dont blame your history on me. Its simple dont follow my thread. DONT why are u on my thread telling me what im doing right or wrong get a life. You arent a man your a boy and its reasons like this that make you look like a butthole.
Its time to introduce Mr. Thickdick to Mr. URINAL!!!!! Leave me alone im not an amateur. Get over your self weakness. STOP losing your money!!!
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