Posted:
#476
Baltimore game is a dud! know way we get cover at this pace! Next time boys
0
Kelly Criterion put to the test.
Posted:
#484
The reason that using " The Kelly Criterion " does not
work for almost all bettors is that they lack the two
things that are essential for success at it.
1.Bettors do not know their " True win percentage "
or , they tend to use an inflated number and thus
almost guarantee failure in using the system.
2. Most bettors cannot consistently measure " True
line value " vs a given pointspread and therefore
their random results work against the Kelly strategy
I've been using " Kelly " successfully since 1994 after
I resolved Items # 1 and 2 above. I did that by using a
" Modified " Kelly system , and changing my capping
methodology to accommodate my use of Kelly.
1. My capping method accurately and consistently
measures " True Line Value ' vs any given
pointspread and establishes a accurate win
probability for each wager . Once I know my win
probability , It's simple to establish wager size.
This method is designed specifically for Kelly.
2.The accuracy and consistency of results have been
measured on well over a thousand wagers since
1994 so there is a significant data base which is
used to confirm my results,.
3. The capping method I use has internal adjustments
incorporated into it which permits accuracy to be
adjusted to accommodate the ever changing
elements of the game.
Once you've got those solved , you will like using Kelly.
work for almost all bettors is that they lack the two
things that are essential for success at it.
1.Bettors do not know their " True win percentage "
or , they tend to use an inflated number and thus
almost guarantee failure in using the system.
2. Most bettors cannot consistently measure " True
line value " vs a given pointspread and therefore
their random results work against the Kelly strategy
I've been using " Kelly " successfully since 1994 after
I resolved Items # 1 and 2 above. I did that by using a
" Modified " Kelly system , and changing my capping
methodology to accommodate my use of Kelly.
1. My capping method accurately and consistently
measures " True Line Value ' vs any given
pointspread and establishes a accurate win
probability for each wager . Once I know my win
probability , It's simple to establish wager size.
This method is designed specifically for Kelly.
2.The accuracy and consistency of results have been
measured on well over a thousand wagers since
1994 so there is a significant data base which is
used to confirm my results,.
3. The capping method I use has internal adjustments
incorporated into it which permits accuracy to be
adjusted to accommodate the ever changing
elements of the game.
Once you've got those solved , you will like using Kelly.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
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