Posted:
#451
NBA
Maverick -2
55% kelly wager
Risking 182 to win 164
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Kelly Criterion put to the test.
Posted:
#452
Record 50-35-1
Bankroll 3482
Easy win. Dallas has been a covering machine. If it wasnt for that moneyline loss a couple of weeks ago on Dallas our bankroll would be substantially higher. I wont dwell on the past but I will continue to look for spots I think is worth the investment. I dont know how many loyal followers I have or if people enjoy this thread but I hope someone else besides me is making some money!! I hope to continue this thread but may shut it down after basketball till football season!
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Posted:
#453
First off, great job so far! You have been on a great run and your bankroll reflects that.
I like KCriterion in theory, but not so much in practice.
From my experience, it typically does slightly better than flat betting but is also much riskier.
You are slightly ahead of where you would be if you were flat betting, and you are on a great streak.
I guess numbers don't lie....
Good luck, I"ll be sure to check in every now and again to see how your doing.
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Posted:
#466
Going to continue the Kelly for this upcoming football and basketball season! Only ended up a couple hundred but thats ok!
Till then Im going to run a fade of the astros and orioles with a parlay system I found. I know how volatile this sytem is but plan on doing it anyways.
series is 40-20-40 Follow and you will understand! Its simple just pay attention to my wagers! The point is to cancel out the outside two numbers if I lose I divide by 3 and add the remaining amounts to the original series. So I lose first wager I divide 48 by 3 and add the amount to 40-20-40 which would then be 56-36-56 so the next parlay I would want to risk x amount to win 112! Follow along and hopefully I can make some profits. Good luck. Please I am totally aware how stupid and risky this may be. Thats why its a gamble. GO BLUE!!!
First parlay: White Sox and D Back Risking 48 to win 80.
Starting Bankroll is 2,306!
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Posted:
#470
DJ good call
Record 51-39-1
56.6% Winning Percentage. Minus those few baseball plays I would be up more. As DJ stated above my system is stupid and I agree just like I posted. ENOUGH SAID NO SYSTEM! DJ by the way thanks.
Things I will be changing this upcoming season is my Bankroll and expected win%! I have found that although my big plays are winning at a good rate historically their isnt enough of a sample size to wager 57% kelly on those plays. Not even 56% So I will strictly be Releasing plays that will win at a rate of 53-55% at -110 odds Rate nothing higher than that. My bankroll has been dormant this baseball season since those losses I had awhile back. Ive been busy finishing Graduate School and working full time.
So for easier tracking purposes during a quick post
1 stripe equals 53% kelly wager
2 stipes equals 54% kelly wager
3 stripes equals 55% kelly wager
Im Extremely excited for this upcoming season and plan on making some decent profits with good money management. Much better than last year. My record of 51-39-1 should have shown much greater profits than what I had! My bankroll is going to start at 5000! I have been saving and this is what I can afford to lose this season in Football and basketball. I hope to double that up but realistically will aim for a 35% ROI
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