Posted:
#376
I like all these underdogs tonite! Only bet will be Kentucky!
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Kelly Criterion put to the test.
Posted:
#383
Just to explain.. Kansas was -11 before game. Now you can get them +3 for the game. That's insane Value on the better team.
You just took VCU -3 for the game, whereas you could have had them +11 before game. There's no Value there.
Kansas In-Game ML is +200.. compared to -900 before game.
Love your style MTP, but just wanted to explain why WIN OR LOSE, this isn't a good play. Getting Value like that on Kansas, win or lose, with proper money management is the best bet.
Have a good night
You just took VCU -3 for the game, whereas you could have had them +11 before game. There's no Value there.
Kansas In-Game ML is +200.. compared to -900 before game.
Love your style MTP, but just wanted to explain why WIN OR LOSE, this isn't a good play. Getting Value like that on Kansas, win or lose, with proper money management is the best bet.
Have a good night
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Posted:
#384
Kreatture,
As much as I would agree with you on your point above. I truly feel the value was right where I got it in the long run! Even if I lost this bet it wouldn't have been by much with me getting that many points. I am not being arrogant but I have never posted a second half play prior. Not only that my record speaks for itself! I know if I release a play I always feel I got the side I wanted. Of course the line was that high because everyone wanted to believe Kansas could come back. VCU is a good team that plays together. I thought about everything you said above prior and still made the move because I knew I was right!
I gauantee if I played that same bet with those same odds 1000 times and hit 51% I would make a much better profit that taking a in game for -3 -120 odds. I would need to hit -3 -120 56% of the time for a substantial profit at those odds. Im not saying you said to do that I'm trying to show you why I played the number I did.
I had math on my side Kreatture. That is what you need to understand and that is why I played it.
I can accept your opinions because I respect U!
We will agree to disagree! Keep up the good work!
Mtp104
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Posted:
#385
Was a nice hit mtp, congrats 
Bottom line tho is it was still the wrong play. Problem is you WON'T win that bet 51% of the time, you won't even make it 45% of the time.
You're math was right and you're right if you played those same odds 1000 times and hit 51% you would make more profit, that's not really hard to calculate. Problem is you don't win that play 51% of the time..
All the Sharps were on Kansas -10.5 (which is where 2nd Half line opened) and they moved it to -11.5 immediately. Public then brought it back to -11. The Sharps know what the right Value play is, and I'll take their side 100% of the time over the Public's, because when you make the right Value play every time, you'll make more money then you'll lose.
Public won this round.. congrats mtp
Look forward to your next pick, as always.
Bottom line tho is it was still the wrong play. Problem is you WON'T win that bet 51% of the time, you won't even make it 45% of the time.
You're math was right and you're right if you played those same odds 1000 times and hit 51% you would make more profit, that's not really hard to calculate. Problem is you don't win that play 51% of the time..
All the Sharps were on Kansas -10.5 (which is where 2nd Half line opened) and they moved it to -11.5 immediately. Public then brought it back to -11. The Sharps know what the right Value play is, and I'll take their side 100% of the time over the Public's, because when you make the right Value play every time, you'll make more money then you'll lose.
Public won this round.. congrats mtp
Look forward to your next pick, as always.
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Posted:
#387
Kreatture
I once again disagree no sharp I know is going to pound a second half line with kansas -11. First off if they had watched the game it was a stupid bet from the start. I believe the public drew that line up. I follow some pretty sharp cappers also. I know we can go back and forth all night. I TRULY believe no sharp with a solid resume would have pounded Kansas -11. I would look at them and laugh no disrespect. Many times those half time lines are overadjusted because of your reasons above. Why not stay with the pace of the game and take VCU +11 at +100 odds which is -3 for game when they are already up 14! Think it over Kreatture. Kansas is a name. Did you see the product on the court. Sharp or not I would not a rub a play in your face or anyones and that isnt what im doing. The people that make money doing this follow two cappers at most and their own handicapping. Patience and seeing is believing!!! Sharps have not made much money this tournament following the juice! I do think that if I played a game in the similar fashion 1000 times and bet it the way I had I would most def hit it 51% of the time. Take advantage of the books mistakes and that is exactly what I did. Kreatture I know you stick to your guns as I do and I value your plays. I approach this business a lot differently than most. I know im not going to make a living off this and don't but I also know a few things about betting.
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Posted:
#389
Why won' I hit this play 51% of the time over 1000 bets Kreatture? I know what you are saying but once again time will continue to show! Instead of trying to understand why you think the value was on your side try to look why the sharps lost this game! What made them pound -11? How could you make me believe that was a value play! I'm sitting here having a very hard time trying to understand your reasoning! Sharps on it line moves up public pounds VCU and lines drops to 11. In my opinion you got this all wrong or in reverse. Ok I'm done
Like I said I will agree to disagree!
Good luck bud
Mtp104
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Posted:
#390
Yes sir, I understand your point of view. I don't know how to explain it any more clearly about why the Value was on Kansas for 2nd Half.. but I guess I'll try.
If you didn't like VCU +11 before the game, how can you endorse a play on them -3 for the game..? More importantly, Kansas was -11 for the game, and then you have a chance to get them +3 for the game after the 1st Half. That's a 14 point swing you have there. You could have taken VCU +11 before the game and your Value would still be on Kansas 2nd Half since you would then have a 14 point middle. Kansas played terrible in 1st Half and you don't expect that to continue, while the ONLY thing VCU did well was shoot the 3. Kansas turned it over 8 times, while their game average was 13 so you expect those to be lower in 2nd Half, as well.
Bottom line for me is if you get the much better team at +3 for the game after opening as -11pt favs, and the halftime stats back up a play on the fav getting back in it even more.. then you have to fire.
I actually had someone on my Twitter tell me the In-Game ML play on Kansas which I made was terrible. I grabbed Kansas -170 in the 1st Half when it was 20-12 VCU. Kansas was -900 before the game and you have a chance to get them -170 midway through the 1st half and THAT'S A BAD PLAY??? Please.. This person also said VCU should have been favored by 11pts, and altho I'm sure they were being (partially) sarcastic, it's just a really stupid thing to say.
I guess we will definitely agree to disagree on this one. Most people here will surely side on your behalf since the play actually won, but that doesn't mean it's right. In the end I guess it doesn't really matter. I respect the civil back an forth conversation, thank you.
You're always a class act and I wish you the best on your Journey
If you didn't like VCU +11 before the game, how can you endorse a play on them -3 for the game..? More importantly, Kansas was -11 for the game, and then you have a chance to get them +3 for the game after the 1st Half. That's a 14 point swing you have there. You could have taken VCU +11 before the game and your Value would still be on Kansas 2nd Half since you would then have a 14 point middle. Kansas played terrible in 1st Half and you don't expect that to continue, while the ONLY thing VCU did well was shoot the 3. Kansas turned it over 8 times, while their game average was 13 so you expect those to be lower in 2nd Half, as well.
Bottom line for me is if you get the much better team at +3 for the game after opening as -11pt favs, and the halftime stats back up a play on the fav getting back in it even more.. then you have to fire.
I actually had someone on my Twitter tell me the In-Game ML play on Kansas which I made was terrible. I grabbed Kansas -170 in the 1st Half when it was 20-12 VCU. Kansas was -900 before the game and you have a chance to get them -170 midway through the 1st half and THAT'S A BAD PLAY??? Please.. This person also said VCU should have been favored by 11pts, and altho I'm sure they were being (partially) sarcastic, it's just a really stupid thing to say.
I guess we will definitely agree to disagree on this one. Most people here will surely side on your behalf since the play actually won, but that doesn't mean it's right. In the end I guess it doesn't really matter. I respect the civil back an forth conversation, thank you.
You're always a class act and I wish you the best on your Journey
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Posted:
#392
I chime in here - I just saw this thread. FOA, good luck mtp with running full Kelly. I am running almost full Kelly, but for a different reason than you are doing it.
I agree with mtp on the VCU line. All the guys I know who bet 5 figures and higher on the 2nd half were taking +11 VCU. When it went to 11.5, I told the guys that basically the line is saying that VCU wins on a 3-pointer at the end of the game.
At the time, I thought VCU was good, but I wasn't sure if they were REALLY good. The only thing I relied on is that I NEVER liked Kansas from day one, and I was waiting for the chance to bet against them.
When Skeen left Wake Forest and emerged at VCU, I was like, "Wow, this guy is trying to make everyone around him better." I had Kansas winning by 1, so take VCU as a side with a small VCU ML "Texas Hedge". Both bets worked.
I do agree with Kreatture that middling (I thought the number was 15, not 14 but my math and memory are bad at 5AM) is the best low-risk play. At that point though, I was looking to press a win.
Back to Kelly, MTP, what is your esimated Kelly Value? Mine is currently at 0.42 for the NHL season, and it's been like that for several years. I lower the heat down to 30% though because I keep thinking that I am either overestimating my system performance or I've just been lucky. I average about 4 bets a day for the whole season. I am wondering about how you feel about running half-kelly instead of full.
The drawdowns are an important variable in your choice to run a certain level of the Kelly Value.
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