Posted:
#351
My own on excel. try SBR kelly calculator
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Kelly Criterion put to the test.
Posted:
#354
Quote Originally Posted by mtp104:
NCAAB
Vanderbilt -3
Risking 133 to win 120
54% kelly wager
I smiled when I read this, cuz it's also one of my BOMBS today!
Public loves the Spiders of Richmond, and that's fine by me! The public will throw so much money away today the books won't even care giving some back to the Sharps!
Best of Luck to you throughout the Tournament mtp! 
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Posted:
#360
I just found this thread and would like to say, "Good job!" I've also been experimenting with various Kelly betting strategies for soccer on the Korean books and I also started a NBA Accuscore threadin the forums, testing Accuscore's plays for the month of March using a full Kelly betting criterion. It's been pretty successful hitting at a little over 60% at a 1.6X multiplier although I'm not betting any real money and just testing it for now.
Anyway, I wish you the best of luck and hope you grind it out and make a nice profit by the end of the year! I'll be checking on your thread periodically to see how you're doing. Even through the rough patches, stick it out and don't be deceived by the notion that you can get rich quick in this business!
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Posted:
#370
Quote Originally Posted by Paddington:
How come your bets have dropped? I understood the basic maths before about % of your bankroll but 5.35% of somewhere around $4K is clearly not 91?
How come your bets have dropped? I understood the basic maths before about % of your bankroll but 5.35% of somewhere around $4K is clearly not 91?
I would like to think Im conservative! 53.5% is my expected win percentage for that particular game. Essentially its a lower value game. A stronger play is 55% or even 57% which I initially stated. I am still learning from this and as this thread grows so will my knowledge. I bet according to my expected win percentage! The last month I have been cold! Just staying afloat. I will remain to be selective. Baseball will be a huge ? for me because of the odds so many times the bets will be lower because of the juice. For example, if I played a game in baseball that was -140 odds I would need to expect it to hit 59% of the time for it even to be a play. The more juice the less value as everyone knows. I'm just having fun right now and excited for the future. I hope everyone is doing well and winning! Remember as I tell myself everyday MONEY MANAGEMENT! Their is always tomorrow!
I may start tailing your bets from now, enjoying the March Madness
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Posted:
#372
mtp... great stuff... quick question... how do you determine what the percentage of a game is... for example the xavier game was 55% and the duke game was something like 53.5%... how do you come up with those percentages? maybe I'm missed it earlier in the thread, but if you could shed some light on those percentages and how you come up with them, I would appreciate it...
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Posted:
#373
Bankroll 3,678
Record 36-26-1
+1678
Tough Month
Win Percentage is based off a line I set for a game or event. It increases when my analysis is in agreeance with other handicappers I follow which is a rare instance. Many other things go into a pick and whether you look at it as 55% winning percentage or 5.5% of your bankroll I will remain consistant and hopefully go on a nice win streak here soon. I do not do this for a living and bet sports for a hobby. I'm learning everyday just like the next average joe. I do not tout myself! I am the average Joe with a good head on his shoulders trying to beat the odds! I've read numerous articles and the kelly criterion and it seems to be the only way to beat the books in the long run. I am going to give this my best shot and hopefully I'll succeed. So far I've had some success and am hitting a a pretty solid clip. Variance has definately taken over this past month even with the small amount of plays. Good luck time for bed!!!!
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