Posted:
#151
wow, did i just write all that sh*t ??? I'm jwas just preaching mostly to myself there!!!
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I seriously think I'm on to something here...
Posted:
#153
chickenhawk3233,, fatharry and zan
all in pick your best play contest in office pools
all seam to be quite good. No guarantees tailing but there consistancy is better than mine!!
tell you what , i'll call it the "chickenfatzan" system
even though they are all cresting , and zan at 18-3, has to have a losing streak/period soon lets just see how they go till end of regular season
chickenfatzan starts tomorrow
i expect by end of season that they won't lose money combined by end of season and may be an sum-total winner of 55% plus
ps: its hard to tail certain guys because some pick late or after some games have started. It really sucks when you've lost a play on someone and because of work or whatever you miss there next play (that wins) So I recommend really watching the posting patterns and finding someone who picks 1-3 picks per dayand posts them at least before first game of day. makes it easy
that guy chickenhawk3233 is leading like 5 contests, he is obviously sharp this season. But he can't be predicted when in day he will pick his play. Harry tends to post earlier and zan I'm not sure , just is knocking 'em out 18-3.
Many times someone will jump on a guy lik zan at 18-3 and think they are about to rake it in. But then a guy like that will go 3-8 or something and the tailer is pissed and stops in disgust. Only later to go back and see the guy recovered fine and went on another plus role.
You can't expect to tail someone when you see they are winning alot and expect 'em to keep doing it, right away. Yo have to be prepared for some loses at first. You just have to be patient and hope they get that magical 55%
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Posted:
#154
Good stuff NEO... I realized today that I really need to work on the patience thing. As much as it pains me to admit it, it's true. And if I want to continue gambling, I need to learn to discipline myself better. If I dont, I'll just continue to lose money.
For the baseball season coming up, I was thinking of tailing swensdogg for the entire season. Bet nothing else, and try to bet all his plays. Afterall, If you start with $1,000.00, you'll 50 units at $20 each. He finished the season going 1166-950-6 at a 55.10% clip and netted 53,305 units in 2008. I'm not sure if he consistently put up 500 units per wager (the site wont show that info for some reason), but it seems like that's what most of these guys do. Nonetheless, he did well and a $50 bettor would net $5,494.70 with -110 odds. Of course we all know in baseball that the odds are completely different from football or basketball. One other note... I just noticed that swensdog ran away with the contest last year. The next closest contestant finished with 41,650 units. Still very good though, and he finished with a higher percent. And TennTech69 finished at 60% 
with 39,455 net units.
with 39,455 net units.0
Posted:
#155
I did a little research and it shows that from year to year, these guys typically dont take part in this contest from year to year. Or atleast it seems that way. I may have to watch the first 2-3 weeks and pick a guy to tail exclusively and stick with him. You see, I dont have time to cap games, and not only that, I wouldn't know what I'm doing anyways when it comes to bases. Or hoops for that matter. So I have no interest in trying to do that.
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Posted:
#159
Hey Steel,
I wouldn't commit to tailing anyone based on last years plays. I havn't seen a top capper ever finish high the year before or after. In fact, most times you click a supercapper on a season you'll notice its their only good/great /profitable year.
Baseball is obviously different than straight betting at -110 . Sometimes I think its easier just to play totals at the predictable -110. I follow nba more than baseball ( but I'll bet betting baseball, nothing else in summer)
back to today!
chickenfatzan went 3-0 !!!
Day 1 3-0
lol
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Posted:
#163
Touching on that baseball thing I mentioned... You almost have to wait probably 2-3 months to see who can consistently pick at a good clip. If you start tailing somebody too soon, they could just bottom out. I mean, swensdogg won the contest last year, but where was he in the standings at midseason? He could have in 10th place. Or in 20th. Who knows?
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Posted:
#164
And here's something else to think about: If you click on any team in the MLB you'll see that pretty much every team had several experts that went between 60 and 65% while picking the games that involved that team in '08. So why wouldn't you be able to tail 3 or 4 those guys exclusively after you wait 2-3 months to see how everyone is doing? Sure you could start tailing the wrong guy, but there is that chance that you tail the right guy too. I'm really new to this (the concept of tailing these guys) and maybe I should just look at how things shake out in this MLB season. If I take the time to track 10-15 individuals to see how they do during the long season it may give me some insight as to whether or not this is even feasible.
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Posted:
#165
NEO... I have an idea and I want you to tell me what you think. After 2 months we look at the leaderboard for the MLB season. Then we tail everyone in the top 10. Now of course we are talking about alot of wagers. But the thing is, if they are all averaging between 50 and 60%, we stand a good chance of averaging atleast 55% every week. And the beauty of it is this: Nevermind. This isn't feasible. Let's change that to the top 5. But back to what I was getting at: Betting that many games, a $20 bettor would net nearly $350 a week (this is based on placing 50 wagers a day at an average of -110 and going 55%). I know this seems a bit extreme, but the risk is low. One guy's bad day will be offset by another guy's good day. Food for thought...
I know that sounds insane by the way. It would be alot of work too. Doing further research, it seems most of these guys made many more units betting the sides as opposed to totals. So we could just play all the sides only. I dont know how many plays a day that would be, but you could always lay 5 or 10 on each play as well. Laying $10 per wager you would still net $175 a week. That's an extra $700 a month. After that though you could increase your wagers too. Pretty soon you'll be making some really good cash every week. You would have to tail the same guys every day of course. One other thing... if four guys like Texas and one guy likes their opponent (let's say it's Oakland), then you could simply place four units on Texas and one on Oakland. If two like Texas and two like Oakland (the fifth guy doesn't play that game) you need to take the odds into consideration. If they're both at +100, it's obviously a wash, and no wagers need to be placed. If Texas is at -190 and Oakland is at +140, then you would just place 2u on each. And then root for Oakland. Again, I realize this is over the top, but the risk is low, and it just might work. We could also just pick between 2 and 4 guys and do this also.
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Posted:
#166
how have you been doing Steel? bouncing back?
i had to cash out most of my BR because i needed the money. i left only 250 in my account and bet 5 on every game and 25-50 when i got solid info on a game. i am up to 1105 in the last 2 months and i am 200 W-200 L in all picks. now i am betting 20 on most games and sometimes 50-100 (i put 150 on cleveland -9 on sunday because detroit is done). my goal is to get up to 3000-5000 so i can make some real money next football season.
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Posted:
#167
Hey Steel,
OK, here's the deal, your excitement and pontifications of tailing the top 5 etc.... are mathematically sound and probable say. More seasons than not you wouldn't lose money adding up all the Top 5 bball cappers since midway, or you may lose a little.
But more importantly, its too hard to tail almost 1 guy let alone 5. I remember way back when doing that stuff. Its crazy. Some guys pick early, fair enough. Some early then add games. a pain. some add gams last second so you can't tail. more a pain. some guys take a day off and your checking like mad to see if they post. lines change against you. Its just , as you say not feasible.
See, to tail, you need consistancy. FOr one, they need to post everyday and hopefully before 1st game, no matter what. That way you can at least play all the guys games and don't miss stuff or are constantly looking at internet. This is crucial, too stressful and ime consuming if not this way. Heck thats why your doing it, so you don't have to cap.
This season, i will cap on wagerline picks myself, funny money, try my best. But with real $$$ will just find my picker and hok my rope to him. It makes sense to me , as someone I've noticed picking fair for a while is surely luckier than me or has more time and skills to cap bball.
second, I'd limit it to one, MAYBE 2 guys. Anymore and your asking for headaches.
3rd, i'd avoid anyone who is doing well betting high juice favs, as as soon as you notice them and tail, they lose. and there is too much risk. you need someone who tends to play -140 and less favs and some dogs too for value.
I've learned that i can't cap baseball well so I don't try.
while i may change my mind, I plan on just playing totals, looking for someone who is at a 55-58% clip plus about 3-4weeks in, and only plays about 2-5 games a day.Most importantly, someone who picks daily, all picks, before 1st game.
see, theire will be hotter cappers, and more lucrative tail opportunities (maybe) , but you have to KISS, keep it simple stupid! lol.
Baseball season is like 6 months! 55% is profit in gambling . predictable juice , -110 or less. (and with totals its important for the capper to pick early, like night before , or morning, before big juice and line moves. Just need 53% to squeek profit , 55% you make money) PLUS, you get some action , but no stress on having 3 big favs tank and costing you like 9 units in one night.
The longer I gamble, the more i realize its all about probability, money management, and patience.
Don' tget me wrong, I'm still a degenerate gambler and still bet my own plays too , and chase a little , vary bet size, even take ml's sometimes (tonight had duke -200 1st half ML, 1 to win .5, it won , but still a risky bet , not real value) but I'm slowly getting there. I at least KNOW these are bad habits and they are slowly going away. Think thats why I keep chiming my 2 cents in your thread, just reminding myself where i'm going.
The 3 cappers i refer too are in the top 10 leaderbord of office polls, go to wagerline, click office polls - then pick "join a pool" and you'll see the "pick your one play per day " contest.
I think they went 1-2 today so thats
4-2 after 2 days
peace out
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Posted:
#169
"FOr one, they need to post everyday and hopefully before 1st game, no matter what. That way you can at least play all the guys games and don't miss stuff or are constantly looking at internet. "
I just wanted to emphasize this again. If you gonna hang your hat on a mathematical probobility, namely that capper x will continue NOT TO LOSE, then you have to be able to play all their picks. which means SEEING them, andgetting their lines.
DOn't try to tail "the TOP CAPPER" , tail a good one who is posting early, consistantly, everyday. Believe me, I've learned.
Basically , the 1st month, just check in the morning at the leaderboard of top 100, and see who everyday has their plys pending, and make sure they didn't add plays later (at least not after 1st game of day)
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Posted:
#170
Quote Originally Posted by EJD3:
how have you been doing Steel? bouncing back?
i had to cash out most of my BR because i needed the money. i left only 250 in my account and bet 5 on every game and 25-50 when i got solid info on a game. i am up to 1105 in the last 2 months and i am 200 W-200 L in all picks. now i am betting 20 on most games and sometimes 50-100 (i put 150 on cleveland -9 on sunday because detroit is done). my goal is to get up to 3000-5000 so i can make some real money next football season.
To be truthful, I've been struggling... I am wagering less though, so I think I'll be OK. I've been doing better as of late, but that's not saying much. Right now I dont feel too confident in any bet I place. So I'm really cautious. Which is a good thing.
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Posted:
#171
All good points NEO... I hate big faves in baseball. Every time I bet them (and it's not often), it seems like they lose. But you're right. Tailing five of them would be next to impossible. If you can pick 2 or 3 good ones, I think that would be the route to go. It may be a good idea to (instead) watch 1 to 3 team experts and tail them. You would certainly be betting less, and if you do end up tailing the right ones, after careful research, you'll be fine. Alot of those guys finished with anywhere from 18 to 25,000 units. And going that route would certainly be alot less chaotic. And they certainly place enough wagers. That's not an issue.
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Posted:
#173
"It may be a good idea to (instead) watch 1 to 3 team experts and tail them. "
so with "TEAM EXPERTS"
Check their overall record as it develops, make sure thay are at even or winning units "IN GENERAL", meaning all their bball picks.
bcause here is my theory. The majority of "experts" are statistical anomolies. when you look at their overall picks, you see a betting pattern of playing a lot a games, like most on the board. They end up statistically having a team or 2 that they appear to kick ass at, but its an illusion, just plain dumb luck. You look at their overall record and its YUCK. So those guys , being not so good cappers, will usually have things even out and start losing more of those picks.
Anyway, I WOULD perk up when you see someone with a winning overall record , who plays 1-5 plays per day, definitley half or less the games on the board, and is an "expert" on 1 or hopefully more teams.
Because that tells you he is a discerning capper, not throwing darts at a board. and the winning overall record shows he is haveing a good season "seeing" the right plays etc....
If you notice an expert who plays very few games, and only seams to focus on a few teams, then you have someone obvioulsy "focused" and they may be good as well.
To reinterate: most "experts" on a team or two have losing unit records overall so I feel they have just got statiscally lucky being "experts" on a particular team.
peace
ps, I have all 3 of chickenfatzan's picks in play tonight for a unit each, as well as one NCAAB play (louiville -1.5, a win already, yay) and also the warriors -4 tonight
in our plays tonight!0
Posted:
#174
Harryfatzan nearly went 3-0 last night. One more bucket by NO and they do. That's alright... I went 4-1 
Hey I noticed that JADESpicks (I went to join a pool and checked out the "2 TEAMS PARLAY SYSTEM) is 52-24-1 and the leader in that pool. I believe it was just one day when he picked just one game (in the pool, you post 2 plays a day). Anyways, out of 39 days he's gone 0-2 only 4 times. He's currently at a 68.42% clip since 11/11/08. So I'm gonna tail him tonight and see how it goes. He likes Oklahoma City and Phoenix.
Harryfatzan says to take the over in the Charlotte and Lakers games and to take Houston and give the 4.5.
Let's get this loot 
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