I know what you´re gonna say, its just another chase system...

 

I dont play Washington all season since they are the only team that has cost you in each and every season I covered in my backtesting...they just stink and thats why I leave them out

 

You are free to do how you feel, I used to just play the flat 2 UNITS but to be honest, I have never really thought about that...

 

Maybe this is something I should consider...good point, but for now I will stick with the 2 UNITS flat

 

GL everyone

anybody else did read that about the nats

Ok, here are the lines I got at Matchbook:

 

HOU 2 UNITS @ +140

CIN 1 UNIT @ +131

KC 1 UNIT @ +120

Good Luck everyone, lets hope for a homedog day

 

Ok, I didnt point that out exactly, in the first post I mention that when you delete Washington from that equation the sweep factor goes down to 6-8%...I intended to say with this that I am not playing them...sorry for not being to detailed there..

ty              how about ml 170 or higher u say runline I took tampa -220 any stats and got lucky

Well, my tummy tells me they will win the game today with 2 or more points difference, the systems basis is that once a home team won a game of the series, its over...thats why I dont pick this one, but this is obviously a point you can argue about...as I said, my tummy is on your side

The reason why I pick RL instead of ML with high numbers is that using a chase system can make it really really expensive in the 3rd or 4th game of a series...I dont want that to happen

Even though the Nats have been swept alot, I wonder if what they make up being such huge underdogs often would offset the losses?

Yes,82.  Or if they have a positive ATS record as a favorite at home.  These stats begin to have merit only after a month or so into the season, but in the beginning of the season you can use the combined records of all the teams I.E. right now teams that are home favorites are winning about 44% on the runline.  this equates to break-even odds of +128. So early in the season, don't bet the runline unless your odds are +128 or greater. Now one could argue that this is a conservative approach, since the chase system doesn't really require using break-even criteria, but I think it is a safer approach.  I am also very cautious about using a team's stats from the previous season as indictors for the current season, at least use them only as guidelines.  Hope you have a great season, 82. Let's win some

YTD 8-3

+2.88 UNITS

Yesterday 1-2

-1.8 UNITS

 

Wasnt the best day yesterday as Houstons bullpen blew it in the last two innings...oh well, we have just seen the first home sweep of the season, from a statistic point of view we should have some room to improve from here

 

Todays picks will follow later

Ok, today will only be CIN for 2 UNITS, no other plays today...tomorrow is going to be a loaded card, roughly 9 games

 

Lets see what CIN is going to do today.

 

GL everyone

If I may-

I think you need to add a filter or stay on course rather than use the Run Line in heavy favorite situations that are clearly going to avg -180 or worse on the money line for the seasom. If a play requires the run line, it should probably be dropped.

 

Now, chasing a favorite in hockey will inevitably require big cohounas because the money line can run so high, but baseball money lines are rarely going to be consistently over -180 on avg due to the overall parody in winning % compared to other sports. This system will run LOTS of plays all year, and my guess is you are only removing 1-2 plays a week at best.

OR

Just follow the system strictly. No Run Lines.

 

Now, i don't want to come off as sure or arrogant, I have not filtered those statistics so I don't know- but the guidelines to find out are fairly simple to backdate, and the concept of dropping high ML from a system is surely not an original idea, especially in systems with lots of plays.

Obviously, I am reacting towards the TB/Balt plays. I took the ML yesterday after bouncing the RL off the wall in game 1. I have not filtered any information to verify this claim of mine, but, through my experiences, any good system that filters the bottom off usually has something for to filter the top teams for odds purposes... I'm not a big fan of chasing -200 or worse.... so I won't be this season, and I will be reducing any high risk series to tracking only until stastics on ML/RL decisions becomes clearer.

 

BOL and thanks for spurring the gambling mind!! looking forward to tomorrow!

Hey Ryan,

I really appreciate your input right here...I had to read your stuff twice to fully understand what you mean (dumb german lol) but I definately see where you are coming from...I have to say though, that I only partly agree...

It might have been a mistake to take a RL this early in the season where you dont exactly can tell how the teams are doing so far...but I have backtested this all over the last 5 years and (if I didnt make a huge mistake) it definately paid off to use the RL over the course of a season...I dont know if you have read the input of Gamehunter lately, he mentioned that he is playing that many games because he figured that in $-terms, the more games he plays the more $ he makes...I have to agree here...I could use some filters to maximise the winning % here...(eg, just play teams from group 1 all season, you will hardly see any sweeps there) but then I would have to risk 5-10 units instead of 1 to get the same output...and from a risk point of view, I am not a friend of that...

But to make a long story short, thanks for your input and I will definately consider your ideas...

BOL for the season

YTD 9-3

+4.98 UNITS

Yesterday 1-0

+ 2.1 UNITS

I just found out I didnt post my line here, I have posted it in the Baseball section but not here, I had CIN @ +105, so the 2 UNITS made me +2,1 UNITS for the night...friday is gonna be packed, so buckle up and get ready for a wild ride with (probably) a lot of favs...

By the way, besides the system, is anyone on the Phillies tonight?

Ive got a confession to make.  I went ahead and played a 2 game chase on the Nats! YEEHAW!!!   

hey,Call,did I correct that: for the first 20 game,you use  the final standings of the last year,and without any change when a team win or lost.and from the 21 games,you could use the current standings,and the groups will change after game by game?

and why just divide the 30 teams to 3 groups?why not divide it to 4,5 or 6 group?do you do any research on it?

thank you

 

May god forgive you for that mistake

 

I did it allready, nice pick bud

 

During the last year, I have just blown too much money on the f**ckers and I have sworn myself I will never play the Nats again...they have just cost you in each and every season...

 

But if you have a feeling for tem, I am sure there will be spots where its profitable to pick them...but not on a systems base...

 

Hey straya,

 

I just picked the no 20 in the last season, there is no real deal to that number...I will check how it looks after 15 games, would be easier since roughly 5 series should be over than...

 

With respect to an increase in the no of groups: I have never checked that, my first impression tells me that a) it would dramatically increase the complexitiy of the system and b) I think this change would reduce the no of games played...and the system lives of the large amount of games...

 

Today we will probably see the biggest no of games during the course of the season, its going to be 9 or 10 games

 

I will be back later with details...

YTD 9-3

+4.98 UNITS

Yesterday 1-0

+ 2.1 UNITS

 

Todays plays as following:

COL (RL) +115@ Matchbook, Risking 1 UNIT to win 1,15 UNITS

SF +110 @ Matchbook, Risking 1 UNIT to win 1,1 UNITS

CIN -129 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,29 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

NYM -132 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,32 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

FLA +111 @ Matchbook, Risking 1 UNIT to win 1,11 UNITS

ARI -135 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,35 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

DET -144 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,44 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

TEX -148 @ matchbook, Risking 1,48 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

LAA -126 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,26 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

 

 Thats it for today, hopefully the card will be empty tomorrow

 

BOL everyone

 

 

 

Its once again the same thing you can argue about: Bal (group 3) is facing Toronto, who are even with OAK and SD and could be in Group 2 as well...its just mixed right now in the beginning of the season...White Sox same thing with MIn who could be counted to group 1 as well...

thats wrong there both in 2   so min is in 1 not 2                         both in 3 tor & bal is a  3b        so  if u dont like the match up its a no bet u have difrent rules then u wrote

so there are hidden rules or is that rule in small print

Dude, please look at their records, in the groups I posted here they are in the same group, yes, but only because (as I stated there) I tried to copy the whole thing from excel which didnt work. TOR has the same record as SD and OAK, therefore you can say they all tie for rank 20 which would make them a group 2 team...I dont get why you fight my posts this way...when you have a problem with it, dont read it...I am trying my best to explain it here...just give it 2 or 3 weeks and we dont have these problems anymore since during the course of a season you seldom have these problems again...

 

and one more thing: do you really think I like all 9 matchups??? with the lines given??? be honest, no one would bet 9 games a day (just from liking all the lines, thats really nonsense...) I play 9 games because thats what my system tells me to...and for setups that are not clear (as the two I left out) I wait for the possible setup for game 2...