Hitting On Hot Singles (HOTS) - an NHL betting system

Hello

This thread is to utilize a system that I have gathered together. It is made to be as simple (fast to use) but as comprehensive (takes into account many factors) as possible.

Hitting On Hot Singles (HOTS):

1. Choose one pick for each day of NHL-hockey.
2. Choose the best possible pick (based on point-criteria below).
3. Bet on -1,5 handicap.
4. Bet 10 dollars per pick.
5. Do not increase/decrease the bet (at least as of now) until the roll grows (if it grows).
6. Adjust the point-criteria if needed (as the system is not backtested).

Methods:
1. Use Covers' Scores and Matchups -page to check certain info on teams facing each other: https://www.covers.com/sports/nhl/matchups
2. Use only that page in order to limit the time used to choose the best pick and to limit any possibility of being subjective as well trying to avoid being influenced by others (not a bad thing to listen to others but this system is based on data).
3. This system is based on available data on that page only, nothing more.
4. It will include points calculated from certain criteria.

The Criteria:
1. Record (home wins (2 point wins) minus home losses (0 point losses). Eg 10-5=5 points.
2. L10 games ((home wins (2 point wins) minus home losses (0 point losses).
3. Starting goalie (probable), better save % gets his team 2 points.
4. No game on the previous day: 3 points.
5. The matchup with the biggest gap in the criteria gets chosen (eg. match 1 has points of 12-28 and match 2 has 4-22. Match 2 would be chosen.)

And thats it.

A couple of reasonings:
1. It is made as -1,5 handicap firstly because I'm a bit gambly, this gives better odds than the moneyline. I dont like doing 3-way either because many games end up as ties. I also dont like moneyline that much because of this, because the overtime and the shootout are a bit of a coin toss (as far as I estimate it).
2. This system is intended to find HOT-teams, to find teams that can outright beat the other team. These teams mostly have rather low moneyline odds, hence the -1,5 handicap at the moment feels like the best choice.
3. This system is highly based on the favorites winnings. This of course does not always happen, but we will see how this goes.
4. This system has not been backtested at all. It will hence be changed around a bit based on how it seems to go, how the point system seems to work etc.
5. I do not calculate all the matchups, just the ones that seem to be close to being the best pick. I might hence in some odd occassion miss the best pick if many matches are very close and I estimate the top 3 matches wrong by mistake.
6. There is no starting bankroll. I will decide when to stop the system if it goes awry. This is to test if this system works. If it does, it will be continued forever and the stakes will be increased as the win-roll grows.

I wrote about my NHL betting strategy in the popular thread by Dan below. There I wrote about a similar system but it was more of a strategy which took rather long to implement and gather info for each round. It was also difficult to choose which match to pick. Now this system is tried in order to choose the best pick faster and to try get the most value from it.

Feel free to ask any questions, give any suggestions and point out any and all oddities and flaws in this system. Thanks for reading!

I will start the calculations shortly and will post the first HOT-pick in ca 1 or 2 hours. Lets Hit On Hot Singles!

One mistake was bound to happen:

Criteria-part's first point should state that it is home wins minus home losses for the home team and away wins minun away losses for the away team.

Criteria-part's second point should state last 10 matches' wins minus losses for both teams. Not caring whether its home games or away games in that part.

Teams hence gather (or lose) points based on their home games (or away games if they are the away team) and also based on all last 10 games + the goaltender-criteria and the no-game-on-previous-day -criteria.

Suggest also more criteria from the Covers-page if you can think of any.

And I must state, as I reflect on my explanation and choices in the system: I find it a bit odd that I choose to include also 2-point wins that happen overtime/shootout, but choose to leave out the 1-point-losses and also that I at the same time try to stay away from the moneyline-bets because I believe that overtime/shootout are a bit of a coin toss. To me this all sounds a bit contradictory, but I cant think of an easy solution (timewise via Covers when comparing) out of it. Someone do come up with a solution to this if this skews the system too much.

But yea, no more thougths from me, plenty of time for that later.

The first HOT! 10 dollars on Carolina at -1,5. Odds are 2,70. Possible win is 27 dollars.

Calculated all of them to learn to do the system and to follow if there is some amount of points that will be enough for a win (either handicap or moneyline) normally, in the long run. I was surprised to see that Carolina became the HOT of the day. New Jersey's game yesterday did not affect the pick either, as the differential was 4 more than with the LA-San Jose -game. In the numbers below the biggest number should be the "best" bet. One could of course add the odds and calculate which pick has the best value but I will just keep it as it is for now.

BUF-NYR 5 - 12 = 7
TOR-WAS 8 - 18 = 10
NJ-CAR -10 - 16 = 26
EDM-CLB 11 - 26 = 15
WIN-TB -6 - 13 = 19
MON-NAS 8 - 8 = 0
LA-SJ -4 - 18 = 22

And before anyone says that the abbreviation of Hitting On Hot Singles is not HOTS but HOHS... Well, I see that now HOTS (Hot Singles?) it is now in any case

Hi Scrivero. I appreciate you writing this system up and it does look interesting for sure. Would you mind giving a breakdown with the exact example and numbers for the criteria when you make your pick today? I just would like to see things put together to clear up some confusion I am having. Also, when you are talking about a team losing by 0 points, are you referring to overtime loses? I understand 2 point wins, but I am a little confused by that.

Thanks and GL!

Hi Scrivero,

I appreciate you writing this up as it does look like an interesting system for sure. When you make your pick today, would you mind giving the criteria examples with the exact math behind the numbers? Also, when you are talking about 0 point losses is that referring to overtime losses? I understand the 2 point wins, but am having trouble grasping that number.

Thanks and GL!

Disregard double post.

Thanks for the comment!

With a 0-point loss I am referring to game that does not go to overtime or to shootout. As overtime/shootout loss would give the losing team 1 point. I basically use the system that Covers has eg. a team has a home record of 12-5-2 (or more precise eg.12-5-2-1), and I just take the wins (2-point wins, no matter if its gone to overtime/shootout or not) and minus the 0-point losses (without the 1 point losses). In this example I would hence take the 12 minus 5, which equals 7 points. I would hence not include losses in overtime or shootout. I am not 100 % sure if I should do it like this, but as of now that is how it is. I probably should also take out the 2 point wins on overtime/shootout but this way seems pretty fair for all teams. It is the fastest for sure, not having to look at which games went to overtime/shootout etc.

An example of today's pick (all stats from: https://www.covers.com/sports/nhl/matchups):

New Jersey @ Carolina

New Jersey away record: 5 wins minus 12 losses, equals minus 7 points.
New Jersey last 10 games: 3 wins minus 6 losses, equals minus 3 points (they lost 1 in shootout which I dont count).
New Jersey better goaltender?: No, NJ's Schneider has worse save % than Carolina's Ward. 0 points.
New Jersey no game yesterday?: No, they had a game yesterday. 0 points.

New Jersey total: minus 7 + minus 3 + 0 + 0 = minus 10 points.

Carolina home record: 11 wins minus 3 losses, equals 8 points.
Carolina last 10 games: 6 wins minus 3 losses, equals 3 points (they also lost 1 shootout which I dont count).
Carolina better goaltender?: Yes, better save %. 2 points.
Carolina no game yesterday? Yes, no game. 3 points.

Carolina total: 8 + 3 + 2 + 3 = 16 points.

Calculating the total points:

Total point difference between New Jersey's minus 10 points and Carolina's 16 points is 26 points in total.

So they are basically 26 points apart from each other based on how they perform:

- firstly as a home team vs away team
- in the last 10 games
- when comparing their starting goalies
- when comparing if they had a game yesterday (possible fatigue)

I did the other matches with the same technique too and then compared the point totals between each matchup.

I hope that cleared it up. Do ask if it doesnt or if you are wondering something else. This is the first time I am doing this so I might be doing it in a wrong way compared to what I am explaining.

Thanks for the good luck wishes!

Interesting...I am going to track the top dog differential using the ML, also going to track the favorite using -1/2 in reg to see if there is anything there compared to the PL

I have never bet much on hockey, because of the way that it plays out. But I have been interested in ways to play reg time. looks interesting, I will be following along.

Thanks for the positive feedback guys! I will also 100 % consider all your suggestions on improvements to the system if you have any.

@subcloser: If there are only 2-3 games I will just do the best pick in any case.
@Sublimity: Nah, didnt make you look silly at all. It was also a good idea to give the example.

So let's check what happened yesterday (points according to the system / actual final score / how it "shouldve" ended according to the points on a scale of 0-26) :

BUF-NYR 5 - 12 = 7 / Final score 4-1 / "shoulve" ended 2-3
TOR-WAS 8 - 18 = 10 / Final score OT 5-6 / "shoulve" ended 2-3
NJ-CAR -10 - 16 = 26 / Final score 3-1 / "shoulve" ended 1-4
EDM-CLB 11 - 26 = 15 / Final score 1-3 / "shoulve" ended 1-3
WIN-TB -6 - 13 = 19 / Final score 6-4 / "shoulve" ended 1-3
MON-NAS 8 - 8 = 0 / Final score OT 2-1 / "shoulve" ended 2-2
LA-SJ -4 - 18 = 22 / Final score OT 2-1 / "shoulve" ended 1-4

We are at minus 10 dollars, our bet on Carolina with -1,5 handicp at 2,7 odds didnt get there, NJ won 3-1. Carolina won the shots with 30-18 shots. If someone watched the game they can tell if they actually dominated but just couldn't get anything in.

Other games: Well, not much to say yet, we will see after around 100-200 rounds whether something interesting comes from the points related to what happens in the actual games. All the so called favorites lost today, with the exception of Washington and Columbus. Who knows, maybe we will see that the biggest points "always" loses or that the smalles points "always" ends up with the away-team winnings etc.

I will calculate the pick for today now. Its probably going to be Vancouver but lets see.

Win-Fla -3 - 10 = 13 / "should" end 2-3
Mon-Dal 5 - 9 = 4 / "should" end OT2-3
Nyr-Phi 11 - 10 = 1 / "should" end OT3-2
Ari-Van -7 - 13 = 20 / "should" end 2-4
Col-Cal -6 - 4 = 10 / "should" end 2-3
Det-Ana 4 - 13 = 9 / "should" end 2-3

Our pick is Vancouver with -1,5 handicap with 10 dollars. Odds are 2,85 (or +185). Possible win 28,5 dollars.

Some notions: It took 10 minutes to calculate 6 games, so this seems very fast. Could easily include more variables in the future. Maybe e.g. minus points for teams that have lost many times with 2 goals or more and plus points for teams which have won many times with 2 goals or more. That would bring up the matches which have the biggest chance of ending with a 2 goal difference or more.

We won 28,5 dollars! Vancoucer won 3-0 Our first win!

BR is +8,5 dollars after 2 rounds.

Win-Fla -3 - 10 = 13 / "should" end 2-3 / Final 4-1
Mon-Dal 5 - 9 = 4 / "should" end OT2-3 / Final 4-3 OT
Nyr-Phi 11 - 10 = 1 / "should" end OT3-2 / Final 5-2
Ari-Van -7 - 13 = 20 / "should" end 2-4 / Final 0-3
Col-Cal -6 - 4 = 10 / "should" end 2-3 / Final 1-4
Det-Ana 4 - 13 = 9 / "should" end 2-3 / Final 0-2

Thoughts: Our system faired well during this round. Still cant say anything about whether it works or not, but I believe it has some possibility to work in the long run.

The good thing about today's win was also that Vancouver seemed to really dominate the match. That is what we are aiming towards, to pick winners who can dominate their opponent on that specific round and hence win with 2 goals or more.

Today's pick will be a close one between St. Louis, Chicago and LA. Coming up in very soon or just after a few hours.

We are betting 10 dollars in StL with -1,5 handical, at odds 3,15 (+215), possible win 31,5 dollars.

Current BR before this bet is +8,5 dollars, -1,5 dollars after this bet.

Edm-Bos 10 - 5 = 5 / Should end 3-2 OT
Clb-Was 23 - 16 = 7 / Should end 3-2
Nas-TB 3 - 10 = 7 / Should end 3-2
Car-StL 1 - 14 = 13 / Should end 2-3
Buf-Chi 3 - 15 = 12 / Should end 2-3
Det-LA 3 - 14 = 11 / Should end 2-3
Min-SJ 18 - 17 = 1 / Should end 3-2 OT

Four matches had 15 points or more in the first round. Only one had over 15 points in the second round and now highest is 13. Is 13 points enough for StL to dominate and win with 2 goals and more? We will see, gotta go with the system. Maybe in the future we will see a very clear line of points where a match becomes statistically playable or unplayable. Maybe we can then also play more than one match during a round.

We did not win, Carolina won 4-2. StL did not dominate, not at all. The other matches did not hit in any big way either. Gonna stop tracking here how the other matches went. Just gonna track the one's we played. We will still calculate all matches to see what kind of points come up. We can always backtrack the other scores as well later on, if we want to do some statistical analysis.

Lets make some minor adjustments, because in my opinion 13 points differenetial is not enough to dominate. Also because we do want to play all the matches that have potential to be dominating wins.

Some new rules:

- The new level of point differential for playing a home team is minimum 15, and the away team has to have be on minus (points).
- It is also ok if the differential is at least 20, even if the away team would be on plus (points).
- If there are is more than one team with minimum 15 points differential, then the match with the highest differential will be chosen (if the away team is on minus).
- If there are more than one matches with minimum 20 points differential, then all of those matches will be played.
- The away-team will be played if it has a minimum 10 points differential for them. This is because an away-team seems to have a hard time getting even that 10 points differential for them. The biggest differential so far has been 7 points, whereas the home teams have hit 15 points or more 6 times.

Today's round:

Nas-Fla -1 - 7 = 8
Tor-NJ 11 - 8 = 3
Car-Chi -1 - 13 = 14
NYI-Col 0 - -14 = 14
Cal-Van 9 - 18 = 9
Ari-Ana -10 - 14 = 24

- 10 dollars on NYI with -1,5 handicap with odds 3,15 (+215). Possible win: 31,5 dollars.
- 10 dollars on Anaheim with -1,5 handical with odds 2,3 (+130). Possible win: 23 dollars.

In total: At stake: 20 dollars. Possible win: 54,5 dollars.

BR before the bets: -1,5 dollars. BR after the bets: -21,5 dollars.

Introducing another addon to the system:
- We will be putting 5 dollars on a double if we have two picks for the same night. We will se what to do if we have 3 or more matches in the future.
- This is because, even if we try to just take it slow and think long term, we also want to keep it exciting and a bit gambly.

- 5 dollars on double with NYI -1,5 and Anaheim -1,5, with odds 7,24. Possible win 36,2 dollars.

In total: At stake: 25 dollars. Possible win: 90,7 dollars.

BR before the bets: -1,5 dollars. BR after the bets: -26,5 dollars.

 - 10 dollars on NYI with -1,5 handicap with odds 3,15 (+215). Possible win: 31,5 dollars. LOSS
- 10 dollars on Anaheim with -1,5 handical with odds 2,3 (+130). Possible win: 23 dollars. LOSS
- 5 dollars on double with NYI -1,5 and Anaheim -1,5, with odds 7,24. Possible win 36,2 dollars. LOSS

BR: -26,5 dollars.

We shall continue tonight. Not sure if any match is gonna be playable though, looks like an even round.

TB-Phi 3 - 7 = 4 Not Playable
Win-Buf 3 - 3 = 0 Not Playable
Min-LA 17 - 11 = 6 Not Playable
Nyr-Clb 16 - 25 = 9 Not Playable
Bos-Fla 8 - 8 = 0 Not Playable
Mon-Tor 10 - 10 = 0 Not Playable
Was-Ott 14 - 9 = 5 Not Playable
Edm-NJ 14 - 4 = 10 PLAYBLE!
NyI-Ari -2 - -11 = 9 Not Playable
Dal-StL 1 - 15 = 14 Not Playable
Van-Cal 1 - 0 = 1 Not Playable
Det-SJ 5 - 16 = 11 Not Playable

The round became as even as it looked like from the first glance. Only one playable game with Edmonton minimum 10 points as an away team.

10 dollars on Edm -1,5 with odds 3,6 (+260). Possible win 36 dollars. BR before the bet: -26,5 dollars. After the bet -36,5 dollars. If we win: -0,5 dollars.

With today's early games I tested another system that I have heard some people utilizing to some extent:
- When the underdog (or one of the teams in an otherwise supposedly even match) scores the first goal early, bet on the other team to win (either moneyline or three-way bet).

So my test was:
- TB was leading Phi 1-0. I bet 10 dollars on Phi to win on a three-way bet (that is they have to win before overtime).
- Win was leading Buf 1-0. I bet 10 dollars on Buf to win on a three-way bet.

10 dollars on Phi, odds 3,6 (+260) = WON 36 dollars!
10 dollars on Buf, odds 5,0 (+400) = WON 50 dollars!

Most important than the win was just to see how it works and to think about it. Basically its like a -1,5 bet but just done during the game. The odds seem to be rather insane at times (like that Buf 5,0/+400 in their home arena). I sleep when the games are mostly on though, so I couldnt really bet on those games very often, just the early games whenever they are on.

Anyways, this is something to add for fun if a good early goal comes. I can also check the matchup points to see who "should" win and play it especially then when the other team scores early. The odds (even if Im not concentrating on them that much yet) make it playable despite the low point differential.

Anyways, lest hope Edmonton dominates tonight! Lets trust the system!

Ok, Edmonton did dominate. Could not score though so they only won on overtime.

So far (matches and how they went):

- NJ-Car 3-1. Carolina won the shots clearly (we bet Car -1,5).
- Ari-Van 0-3. Vancouver dominated (we bet Van -1,5).
- Car-StL 4-2. StL did not dominate at all (we bet StL -1,5).
- Ari- Ana 2-3OT. Anaheim won the shots clearly (we bet Ana -1,5).
- NyI-Col. 1-2 OT. An even match (we bet NyI -1,5).
- Edm-NJ 2-1OT, Edmonton dominated (we bet Edm -1,5)

Thoughts:
- We are 1 out of 6, BR is -36,5 dollars.
- In 4/6 matches our team dominated or won the shots clearly (we had a chance to win)
- We picked the right winner 3/6, but it ended in OT 2/6.
- With Moneyline bets instead of Puckline we would be at ca -10 dollars in our BR.

How to continue?
- Well, we could continue the same way, as we have been "right" 4/6, even if we have won only 1/6. Also, Moneyline wouldve been minus as well, so I wouldnt pick that to our system either.
- We need to get ca 7/18 matches right to be in positive BR. Can that be done? Not sure. That is calcuated by an average odd of 2,8 per match (or +180 per match). With Moneyline we would have to get ca 11/18 matches right to be positive BR. Can that be done? Not sure.

Should we change something?
- I think so. We are looking for a winning system. A system that can bring us money in the long run. Right now we have "chosen right" 4/6 when looking at how the matches went. Still, we got the winning team only 3/6 and won the bet of -1,5 only 1/6. Could we have gotten 3/6 right and be about +24 dollars on our BR? Certainly possible.

Sill, Im gonna think about this for a couple of bours. I think want to utilize this system to bring us bigger possible winnings. Lets see.

Ok, not sure what happened with the Edmonton-bet that I made but I won it somehow. Probably the bookie had a mistakes on their odds or something. I bet Edmonton to win with 2 goals or more with the odds 3,6. Now that I checked my betting history I see that I bet Edmonton to lose with max 1 goal with odds 3,6. So we won 36 dollars from that one.

Our BR is then basically -0,5 dollars. But not really, as that match didnt go as we wanted it anyways, despite the bookie's mistake.

Maybe our refined strategy would be to find similar bookie mistakes and play the favorite with +1,5 handical with insane ca 3 (+200) odds

With that said, Im still trying to figure out a possible modofication to the system. The point system is good and I will keep it, but what games should we play? Ties? Handicaps? Moneyline? Over/under?

Give me your suggestions and we will try them :)

Damn, just finished writing a long text but closed the window before posting it :D

Ok, lets try again, just the important things:

Bos-Car 9 - 13 = 4
TB-Pit -3 - 24 = 27
Phi-Clb -3 - 22 - 25
Nas-Chi 1 - 15 - 14
Edm-Ott 10 - 8 = 2
Min-Ana 16 - 15 = 1

We bet a double of -1,5 Pit and -1,5 Clb. 10 dollars with odds 6,44, possible win 64,4. No singles tonights, odds are too bad with even -1,5. Dont like the -1,5 that much anymore as Ive started to look at the odds more. We will see what to do with it.

New in the system:
- The goalies' save % difference must be at least 0,01, for the other team to get extra (eg. 0,920% vs 0,930%). a difference of like 0,005 is way too trivial to give any real edge.

Want to find more hidden point-makers. The current ones are too obvious and everyone uses them (to estimate a winnign team). Need to be innovative.

Want to try to find a match with bad goalies, bad defence and good offence, an even match too. Gonna bet it 5-4, 6-4, 5-5, 4-5 and 4-6 with odds of 100 to 1 each. Carolina-Boston is a minitest tonight. 5 dollars to win 100 altogether there.

Will continue to refine the point-system. Will continue to try to find the best way to use it. The system must be something that can be done again and again. It can not be just 1 match per week/month.

Pit won 2-6. Clb won 1-2OT. We would have been minus 3 dollars if we played both singles. Now we did minus 10 by doing the double. Moneyline would've won this one. The odds would have been ca 2,8. Would have to hit that 1 out of 3 times at least to even make some distant profit. I dont like it.

All our matches hit with the points (Except for Edmonton). Can we draw something out of that? Not really.

Boston-Carolina had a lot of goals as expected. Not quite enough though, ended 3-4. Was a good test though! I had the same idea with the TB-Pit match and it too ended 2-6. Would have needed 3-8 or 4-7 to have the 100 to 1 odds so did not even try that one. Did not think TB had enough scoring potential.

We will think about what to do next. We want to keep trying different things with the point system to find something that we think has potential. I dont think the -1,5 singles is the way to go. Even in the long run it just does not seem profitable.

We want to find something that has a good chance to win every night. Or something that has a justified (albeit long shot) chance each night, but that would at the same time pay off big if it hits.

We need to hence right now think between:
- Try to win small every second night vs. try to win big once a week.

After that we need to adjust the point criteria, find more hidden data.

After that we might need to incorporate some sort of positive/negative progression betting system into all of this.