Hitting On Hot Singles (HOTS) - an NHL betting system

The 17 days of the Over/Under system is incorrect, should be 21 days. Those are betting days. The system started on the 10th of January.

Today's bets, 1 unit each:

1. NJ-Detroit Over 5,5 +145
2. Ottawa-Florida Under 4,5 +125
3. Buffalo-Montreal Under 4,5 +120
4. Boston-TB Over 5,5 +115
5. LA-Arizona Under 4,5 +125
6. Minnesota-Edmonton Over 5,5 +130
7. Colorado-Anaheim Under 4,5 +130
8. Chicago-SJ Over 5,5 +125

Good luck to us!

Over/under record so far divided to Overs and Unders:
- Over 5,5: 30-21, ca +15,00 units
- Under 4,5: 13-15, ca +1,90 units
- Under 5,5: 0-2, -2 units

The +units in total differs from the actual +total, because I had to estimate the average odds for Overs and Unders, as I dont have the exact odds tracked. I estimated U4,5 to be ca +130 odds and O5,5 to be ca +120 odds. The average odds of the playable games are ca +125 but the ones that hit will make the average (and our ROI) either higher or lower that the +125 (or our estimated ROI of 11,25 %.

At least the Unders are not hurting us. And we have to remember that we lost 4 unders during last night.

Today's bets, 1 unit each:

1. Boston-Washington Over 5,5 +125
2. Minnesota-Calgary Over 5,5 +128
3. Colorado-LA Under 4,5 +130

0,2 units for a triple of all three with odds +1080

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Boston-Washington Over 5,5 +125 WIN!!
2. Minnesota-Calgary Over 5,5 +128 WIN!!
3. Colorado-LA Under 4,5 +130 LOSS

0,2 units for a triple of all three with odds +1080 LOSS

2/3 right, profit of +1,33 units, good.

Statistics for the systems:

1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+16,19 units (singles), +21,48 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 4-2, +9,75 units

3. Unannounced new system (test start 1st of February 2017)
Record: 3-0, +3,2 units

We are most likely moving to just Overs with the Over/Under system, as we are now getting better odds as we have moved to Pinnacle. Hence we have more games with good enough odds for overs. Also, the Unders seem to be more difficult to hit with the 4,5 line.

Will post today's plays soon.

Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Montreal-Philadelphia Over 5,5 +120
2. Oilers-Predators Over 5,5 +125
3. Chicago-Arizona Over 5,5 +130

0,2 units on a triple of all three +1039

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Montreal-Philadelphia Over 5,5 +120 LOSS
2. Oilers-Predators Over 5,5 +125 LOSS
3. Chicago-Arizona Over 5,5 +130 WIN!!

0,2 units on a triple of all three +1039 LOSS

1/3, we lost 0,9 units.

Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+15,49 units (singles), +20,58 units (singles and parlays)

I might stop posting the system on this board as there's not much conversation going at least in this thread. I will continue on another forum, you will find me with my name and the thread title or something very close to it :)

Thanks for the comments and for following this system!

Scrivero, I got banned from the other place. BS

Damn, why does that keep happening to people? You have been very analytical and polite in all your threads. Do they really ban people because they are giving so many winners?

Lets try to get some system done in any case man. We will figure out how and where. Would love to follow your systems too.

No, I tried creating another account because I wanted to do everything new with it...a fresh start. They banned the new account and the sedwards86 account. What platform would you like to use to develop something? The team total over chase has me worried, to be honest. It wasn't selective enough, so now there are many open chases.

Flea got banned because of his meltdown

You are probably right about Flea. Ya another account sounds like they get a reason to ban for sure. Maybe they will unban you if you explain the situation? That board is very very quiet with both you a Flea banned, it had a real buzz going a few days ago.

About your TT Over Chase.. You are still +units on that, so you can just pull the plug on it if it feels like its gonna cost you a lot, if it doesnt feel like you can trust it.

I have no idea what platform to use to develop a system. It could be pretty much anything. Covers could be one option. Or an online collaboration tool such as one of these: https://www.creativebloq.com/design/online-collaboration-tools-912855

All I know is that I have a lottttt of enthusiasm and time to develop a system that can really beat the bookies and win a lottttt of cash. I can do only so much development myself though. That is why I left Covers to another forum too, to get more feedback. I might return here if all dies in the other forum. Doesnt give the co-operation factor still though.

To add to this, some info on me:

1. I have a tendency to really get into things that can make a lot of money.
2. I have a tendency to become disinterested fast if I lose interest, if there is no feedback, if no one is interested. I also stop things fast if I notice that I am not good enough in them.
3. Money is the outcome of doing something well and right.
4. Doing something well and right is the real success, psychologically. The money that comes from it is just inevitable, it just comes if one is doing the right things.
5. My goals are huge. I dont satisfy with making e.g. 1 k per year, where my systems are taking me right now. My goal is to make as much money as possible. Making a million is the actual goal. Not even kidding.
6. I dont shy away from risks but I do think sensibly and try to keep decent BRM.

So yes, Im putting my all into betting right now (of course besides going to work, taking care of the family etc.). Its still ca 3 hours a day that I can put to betting. Right now its ca 2,5 hours of analysis and development per day, and ca 0,5 hours of actually making the bets and administration.

And lastly: I live in Europe so I am basically asleep every day from 4pm EST to 11.30pm EST. At work from 1am EST to 9.30am EST. Betting stuff between 10am EST to 4pm EST with of course some mandatory stuff in between.

But yea, lets see. I hope I dont lose my interest in betting (again) as I see that there is a huge potential.

Update on my systems:

I have during the last 7 weeks tested ca 8 or 9 new systems with good and bad results. I have also backtested loads and loads and as a result the Over/Under system has transformed into an Under system.

My current systems are:
- Under system
- Early goal system
- Shutout system

Our total for all systems is +28,2 units. We went all the way up to +47 units around 2,5 weeks ago but have since then experienced loads of variance, not least because of new very high variance systems which have not yet hit much. I also think that the end of the season has too much of some teams tanking etc. We have also maybe tilted a bit, done a bit of gambling too, played -EV systems. Also, our +47 units peak was so much +EV that it could not last. We are probably just closing in on our EV of ca 12,5% ROI which is still remarkable, but not unexpected, as the data showed such results with the backtesting. Granted the start of the season with the old Over/Under system was actually supposed to be negative ROI but we lucked out. I cant complaint :)

I am currently on a break until the Playoffs and will then use the Under system, a new Over system, the Early goal system and the Shutout system. I will use them if the odds are right. If they are not right, then we will not play any of them. Then we will just come up with new systems and improve the old systems for the new season.

Next season we will also try to take advantage of various systems that other people are doing, such as DanRules. Also another awesome system in the other board will be used, with some possible tweaks.

Next update maybe when the playoffs start. If not, see you maybe next season if I will post here then.

BOL to all!

Update on backtesting:

Just got done (a week ago) backtesting the playoffs from 2010 to 2016. Have the backtesting done for all possible and impossible Overs, Unders and Correct scores. Just need to wait now for the odds for the playoffs. I was first very very very happy with the results until I checked the lines for O/U for the previous years for playoffs. If those numbers are right, it means that almost every game has a line of 5 which makes the Under system pretty much a +-0. Same with any type of Over system (as in games with O6,5 or more).

Correct scores has a an amazing feature in them that bring a huge profit, if the odds are anywhere close to the regular season. If not... well, lets just hope that they are not too low to not be able to play anything for the playoffs. If so, then be it. I will already do some checks with the odds and estimate them for the playoffs in the coming evenings. The only even close to comparable game to any of the playoffs games is (was last week) the Ducks-Rangers for tonight and the odds are perfect, but I think that sadly they will be much lower in the playoffs.

I will return with more info and with hopefully loads of plays for the playoffs If theres none, well, then we will have loads of time to come up with systems for the next season.

Coming back to the forum:

I am back here! I was not able to get any ideas from others in the other forum at least during the last 4 or 6 weeks. My systems need some input from people with more experience than me in systems and betting. Hence I am back here. Feel free to join in with any comments or criticism or ideas. The more the merrier.

If you can also prove with your back testing that my regular season systems do NOT work, please tell me so that I can stop them.

My current regular season systems that I have backtested and that work are:
1. Under system
- Playing all games U4,5 goals that have odds of at least ca +270. My backtesting has showed this to give a ROI of ca +12,5. I had to estimate a lof of the lines though as my data only has the regular line of 5,5 and 5, not the lines of 4,5. Will try to SDQL query this when I learn how to do it.
2. Shutout system
- Right now used (on break at the moment) with minimum -225 favorites to with 1-0 or 2-0. This was previously much wider with scores of 1-0 to 5-0 and 5-1, 5-2, 6-1 and 6-2.
- I will try to find an even better category than the -225 favorites.

I have probably ca 10 failed systems from the last 3 months. Those systems are statistically roughly +-0 but I do not play them. No sense in wasting time on systems that dont make money. I could try to revive some of them again though with some sort of other angle. I could write the failed systems here one day.

Our total for all systems since starting them on January 7th 2017 is +28,2 units.

I forgot, I also have the:
3. Early goal system
- Betting a favorite or a team in an even match to with -0,5 when they give up an early goal (in the first 10 minutes of the game).

Playoffs:

The lines are out, and they basically mean that the Under system is not gonna be playable during the playoffs. The average odds for U4,5 should be at +200 but its nowhere near it. Even the games which have a line of 5,5 the U4,5 is not that high, I can still check how previous years games with a line of 5,5 did as U4,5.

The line for O6,5 should be at ca +250 for the games to be playable. That might just happen. I will check what the odds are when they are out for the O6,5 (and for the U4,5).

The odds are not out for the shutout systems scores of 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2, Lets hope that they are where they should be. Even +4900 is enough for the 1-0 and 0-1, that will definitely happen. We should get like +6500. For 2-0 and 0-2 we still need that at least +4900 which might not happen. We could still play them too even if it would be like +5% ROI because it would just be super annoying if a truck load of games suddenly ended 2-0 instead of half ending 1-0 as it normally goes. 3-0 scores dont bother me as the odds for them are (should be) rather small.

I might start a new threat to follow the shutout system and/or the Over system.

Ok, the odds are out for the correct scores and they look like this:

All the odds below are decimal odds. Will have the American odds only on the averages. All lines are Coolbet. You can find corrects scores also at least at Bet365.

1. Rangers-Montreal, a low scoring game, line is 5. Odds:
- 1-0: 60
- 2-0: 50
- 3-0: 45
- 4-0: 100
- 5-0: 100
- 0-1: 60
- 0-2: 35
- 0-3: 30
- 0-4: 60
- 0-5: 100

2. Boston-Ottawa, a low scoring game, line is 5. Odds:
- 1-0: 60
- 2-0: 40
- 3-0: 35
- 4-0: 60
- 5-0: 100
- 0-1: 60
- 0-2: 45
- 0-3: 40
- 0-4: 75
- 0-5: 100

3. Columbus-Pittsburgh, a high scoring game, line is 5,5. Odds:
- 1-0: 100
- 2-0: 75
- 3-0: 60
- 4-0: 100
- 5-0: 100
- 0-1: 100
- 0-2: 45
- 0-3: 35
- 0-4: 60
- 0-5: 100

4. Blues-Wild, a low scoring game, line is 5. Odds:
- 1-0: 75
- 2-0: 60
- 3-0: 50
- 4-0: 100
- 5-0: 100
- 0-1: 60
- 0-2: 40
- 0-3: 30
- 0-4: 50
- 0-5: 100

5. Sharks-Oilers, a low scoring game, line is 5. Odds:
- 1-0: 75
- 2-0: 50
- 3-0: 45
- 4-0: 100
- 5-0: 100
- 0-1: 60
- 0-2: 40
- 0-3: 30
- 0-4: 60
- 0-5: 100

Average odds:
1-0/0-1: 71 (+7000)
2-0/0-2: 48 (+4700)
3-0/0-3: 40 (+3900)
4-0/0-4: 76,5 (+7550)
5-0/0-5: 100 (+9900)

I was gonna reveal all my results of all my backtesting but actually I wont yet as I found some mistakes and I dont know if I should reveal it all as a part of the results is just way too good. Backtesting it now again with SDQL-queries. I will post the plays though.

Back later.

Ok, I checked now the lines for U4,5 and O6,5 and O7,5 and O8,5 and calculated the ROI for each option. The best I could get was +5% ROI. And even that would still have more backtesting to do regarding which of the matches actually end up that way.

To make it short: Im not doing any of the Over-stuff. I also assume that doing O5,5 is not gonna be positive. The Under stuff is still a question mark. The odds are awesome for the games with line 5,5 which will be two series: Columbus-Pittsburgh and Toronto-Washington. And maybe Nashville-Chicago, just maybe.

We will start the U4,5 bets as we did during the season. We will play matches that have at least ca +270 for U4,5. I dont time to backtest anymore tonight, but if the regular season can be used to assume things, the assumption is that playing U4,5 for even those games is gonna be very profitable when the odds are that high. I will bet 0,5 units per game first, as still some backtesting is needed,

Also, we will play the shutout system. BUT, and I must say that I backtested this 3 or 4 times with 3 or 4 different methods and found, still, HUGE results for games ending 1-0 or 0-1. But the findings in the end support only favorites, and much better for the home faws but we will start with both.

I am thinking that the shutout bets will be 0,25 units each. to make the possble loss for the season ca -22 units.

I wasnt gonna reveal much but I must reveal something. So without revealing too much, here is something regarding favs winning 1-0:

88 games per season (as we will play all games).
1 hits: 71 (decimal odds): ROI of -20 %
2 hit: 142: ROI of +61 %
3 hit: 213: ROI of +142 %
0 hit: ROI of -100 %
0,25 units per game (what I intend to invest): 0,25 x 88 = 22 units
+13,5 units if 2 hit (or -4,25 units, if 1 hits) (or -22 units, if none hit)
+31,25 units if 3 hit.
Average is 1,8 per season since the 2005.
One season with 0 games.
Three seasons with 1 games.
Five seasons with 2 games.
One season with 5 games.

If someone still wants to backtest anything you are very welcome. I have loads of other data but thats enough. No other scores are playable and no dogs either. I have not done more tests with 2-0 and 3-0 and 4-0 with home favs etc. but I will try to find the time. The overall stats are so bad with them that nothing should change them to be playable.

Plays for tonigt:

U4,5 playoffs:
Columbus-Pittsburgh 0,5 units, +272

Shutout playoffs:
Montreal to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +4900
Boston to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +5900
Pittsburgh to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +9900
Wild to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +5900
Oilers to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +5900

Im following the odds for a while to see if we actually seem to reach the average that we set with today's games. I noticed that we alraedy missed +1000 in the Montreal-game for betting it this late. I have to bet them earlier.

All lines are Coolbet. You might find better lines somewhere else, such as bet365.

And it might take us forever to hit our first, so lets not panic if it takes a while :D Im mostly saying that to myself lol.

BOL!

Ok, found some time to go through all HF, AF, HD and AD options and stats of scores from 1-0 to 4-0.

As expected, 3-0 Home favs is a rather common option, but its actually a very minus ROI score as the odds are lower. 2-0 Home favs is minus too. 4-0 is +-0 ROI.

Interestingly some good results with Away dogs for 2-0 and 4-0. Away dogs 3-0 is negative but I dont know how I could not do it if I would do 2-0 and 4-0.

So now we must decide between doing just favs 1-0 or favs 1-0 and dogs from 2-0 to 4-0.

I know from experience that it actually takes loads of time to make these bets. Need to put them in one by one and it just sucks. On Coolbet at least its really slow. That would make 1 bet per game vs. 4 bets per game. Basically 4 bets per evening vs 16 bets per evening.

1 unit bet per evening vs 4 units bet per evening. I could do like 0,10 units per bet but I dont like it.

Ok, ok... Its tough but I want to bet on something else too and also reduce the risk. Im in no hurry to win huge, Im building systems in which I can invest more in the future, so:

We will just do the 1-0 home and road favs.

Results

U4,5 playoffs:
Columbus-Pittsburgh 0,5 units, +272 WIN
Record: 1-0, +1,36 units

Shutout playoffs:
Montreal to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +4900 LOSS
Boston to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +5900 LOSS
Pittsburgh to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +9900 LOSS
Wild to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +5900 LOSS
Oilers to win 1-0, 0,25 units, +5900 LOSS

Record: 0-5, -1,25 units

Total for playoffs: +0,11 units.

Minor correction to some figures. ROIs for the best scores:
- Home/Away Favs to win 1-0, average odds are +6700. ROI is +39 %.
- Away Dog 2-0, average odds are +5775. ROI is +15,8 %
- Away Dog 4-0, average odds are +9900. ROI is +12,5 %.

Others are either +-0 or highly negative.

We will continue with the 1-0. Plays later tonight.

No Unders today.

Shuouts, to win 1-0, 0,25 units each:
Washington +7400
Chicago +7400
Anaheim +4900

Not sure if I will post all the plays every day. I will play them for sure. If I dont post the Unders either, well, play anything that has odds of at least cs +270.

Im gonna count some more results again to see if I had them right or wrong:

AD 1-0: ROI -35 %
AD 2-0: ROI +16 %
AD 3-0: ROI -37 %
AD 4-0: ROI +12,5 %
AD 5-0: ROI -58 %
HF 1-0: ROI +49 %
HF 2-0: ROI -15 %
HF 3-0: ROI -37 %
HF 4-0: ROI +-0 %
HF 5-0: ROI -30 %

Lets also recalculate and "publish" the other options:

HD 1-0: ROI -27 %
HD 2-0: ROI -45 %
HD 3-0: ROI -27 %
HD 4-0: ROI +37 %
HD 5-0: ROI -100 %
AF 1-0: ROI +10 %
AF 2-0: ROI -75 %
AF 3-0: ROI -15 %
AF 4-0: ROI -27 %
AF 5-0: ROI -39 %

Well, the original idea was to play just 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 for all games. After backtesting more I noticed that just playing those would yield a loss in 2-0/0-2. After more backtesting I noticed that the ROI increases a lot when leaving out all the dogs.

Home favorites for 2-0 still didnt go positive historically so I left them out. The only positive dog was 2-0 but I left it out as wanted to save time and variance and not start extending the plays to e.g. AD 3-0 and 4-0.

Now that I think about this, and of course these recalculations were sparked by seeing one 1-0 and one 2-0 score in the first 8 games, both being away dogs, we might want to figure out again what we want to achieve.

Im trying to figure out what to do. Lets first calculate if we could play all games and all 1-0 to 4-0. Easy to do because the amount of games for HF and AD is the same, and so is also the amount of games for HD and AF. So lets calculate the ROI during last 10 years of playoffs if we played all those scores:

Just HD 1-0 to 4-0: ROI of -15,5 %.
Just AF 1-0 to 4-0: ROI of -26,7 %
Just HF 1-0 to 4-0: ROI of -0,75 %
Just AD 1-0 to 4-0: ROI of -10,87 %

So what do we get from that: Well, we can NOT play all possible games with all those scores. I think 10 years shows a clear picture of that even if tehre has been just ca 900 games. The Total ROI would be at ca -8 or -12 or something similar, as there are much more HF/AD games than AF/HD games. Still nothing playable.

One could wonder though... with such a small amount of games still, even if its close to 1000.. with just handful of those shutout scores for each results... can it be that the other scores start to come up now and after 10 years more we will notice that the scores above are actually closer to minus in ROI and the others too.

But we must decide what to do. I think there are 5 options:
1. We play the original idea of 1-0 and 2-0 for all games for all teams. That is though historically minus ROI.
2. Play just the HF and AD to win 1-0 and 2-0. Historically +15 %.
3. Play all the +ROI results from the last 10 years. Wont calculate the exact ROI now but its roughly 35 %.
4. Continue like now, just the home favs 1-0 and away favs 1-0.
5. Play all the biggest minus ROI scores and hope that it was just unlucky that they never hit well during the last 10 years.

Which option do YOU think is the best? :) I would love love love to get some opinions, this is too tough to figure out myself. Anyone?

But what I will start doing from now is the following:
Option 3. Play all the +ROI results from the last 10 years so:
HF1-0, HD4-0, AF1-0, AD2-0, AD4-0.

I already started thinking: "Ok, maybe we add the HF2-0 too, and then the AD3-0. how about also AF3-0 and AD1-0...

But if we do that, we are close to playing all the scores again which proved to not be profitable at all. Where do we draw the line?

So we will stick to those 5 scores of: HF1-0, HD4-0, AF1-0, AD2-0, AD4-0. We will decrease the bet size from 0,25 units to 0,1 units as we still dont want to risk more than ca 20 units into this system. Lets calculate how much we can lose:
3x0,1x71=21,3 units
2x0,1x16,4=3,28 units.

Altogether we are risking ca 24,6 units. Thats fine. That is if we can keep the system as it is. The problem is that it really sucks to almost hit a score. And even more when the historical data is small so we dont know if we can trust it or not. Hence we will choose to maybe give up some units won to decrease the variance a bit and to decrease the annoying mornings when it almost hit. We will be wiser next year.

I cant promise that I wont change the system again, but lets try this variant now :)