10 dollars on each game: 1. Senators-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 WIN 2. Panthers-Flames Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 WIN 3. Chicago-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 WIN 4. TB-Anaheim Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS 5. Nashville-Vancouver Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 WIN 4/5 right, we made a profit of +39,5 dollars, nice!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+116,2 dollars (singles), +147,1 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +29,55 Total for these systems: +248,9 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +162,40 dollars.
Over/Under stats: Over/unders hitting so far:
- Over 5,5: 14/22 right - Under 4,5: 7/13 right
Singles hitting so far: 21/35: +116,2 dollars
Doubles hitting so far: 2/2 +40,90 dollars
Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
0
Results:
10 dollars on each game: 1. Senators-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 WIN 2. Panthers-Flames Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 WIN 3. Chicago-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 WIN 4. TB-Anaheim Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS 5. Nashville-Vancouver Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 WIN 4/5 right, we made a profit of +39,5 dollars, nice!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+116,2 dollars (singles), +147,1 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +29,55 Total for these systems: +248,9 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +162,40 dollars.
As we always want to maximize our profts, lets calculate if we could add something to the parlays on the over/under system:
Lets say we have 5 games like yesterday. Lets say that we would have the 5 singles 10 dollars a piece and then have 10 doubles, 10 triples, 4 four-game parlays and 1 five game parlay. 1 dollar each.
It would cost us 25 bucks. What could we win as extra? Lets calculate with average of 2,25 odds per single, 5 odds per double, 11 odds for triple: 25 odds for fourgame and 55 odds for fivegame bet.
Options: 1 game right: 0 extra bucks, loss of 25 bucks 2 games right: 5 extra bucks, loss of 20 bucks 3 games right: 26 extra bucks, profit of 1 buck 4 games right: 99 extra bucks, profit of 74 bucks 5 games right: 315 extra bucks, profit of 290 bucks
With 4-game it would be same extra bucks as above but with 11 dollars bet. So: 1 game right: loss of 11 bucks 2 games right, loss of 6 bucks 3 games right: profit of 15 bucks 4 games right: profit of 88 bucks
WIth 3 game one (7 bucks bet): 1 game right: loss of 7 2 games right: loss of 2 3 games right:profit of 19 bucks
And for fun lets do a 6 game one (57 bucks bet): 1 game right: loss of 57 2 games right: loss of 52 3 games right: loss of 31 4 games right: profit of 42 5 games right: profit of 258 6 games right: proft of ca 800 bucks (didnt calcuate but is quite close)
So what can we get from this? - betting 6 games and all systems: Need to get 4/6 right to get profit. Sounds very high variance. The losses on average are bigger with 1/6, 2/6 and 3/6 than what the 4/6 would brings. 5 or 6 right of course pay well. - betting 5 games and all systems: Need 3/5 to break even. 1/5 or 2/5 would lose ca 22,5 bucks. 4/5 would bring 74 bucks. - betting 4 games and all systems: 3/4 would bring a rather ok profit of 15 bucks, whereas 1/4 or 2/4 would lose just a little, average 8,5 bucks. - betting 3 games and all systems: all right brings 19 bucks, otherwise average loss of 4,5 bucks. Not bad. - betting a triple without the doubles: costs 1 and brings 10 profit if hits.
Conclusions: 1. betting all 6 games with all system is way too high variance for our budget. 2. betting 5 games with all systems, we would have to hit 4/5 once every 4 times to make a small profit. Of course hitting 5 would be a huge added bonus. Even 2/5 right would lose 20 bucks extra. 3. Betting 4 games with all systems we would have to hit 3/4 every 3rd time and would have a small minus. 4/4 would bring 88 extra profit 4. Betting 3 games with all systems, we would have to hit 3/3 every 5 times to break even. Doable, but is it worth it? 5. Betting just a triple with 1 dollar: need to hit it once in 11 times to break even. Surely doable.
So basically, I think that we should keep doing the single with 10 dollars each and the double with 5 bucks each. We should however maybe change the triple for 5 bucks to triple for 1 buck. Just to reduce the variance a bit. Or maybe to 2,5 to keep it exciting.
We could add the 3 games with all systems instead though but its not really worth it. We are trying to make money with making loads of bets of singles and occasional doubles when its just 2 games.
We could also just do all doubles or all triples when we have 4 or 5 or and doubles, triples and 4games when we have 6 games but it doesnt make sense as adding the extra 4games, 5games and 6games wouldnt really cost taht much.
We could also jsust do all 4 games and no doubles or triples when we have a 4 game night. And 5 games when we have 5 game night, and 6 when we have a 6 game night. - We would hit the 4 game one every 20th times, 5 game one every 50th time and 6 game one every 110th time. Marginal profits. We could be also waiting for a long time to hit them, so we would just end up tying our money in in a way.
Gonna think about it a bit. To me it sounds like we wanna concentrate just on the singles and occasional doubles and get the triple in every now and then.
We might return to doing these bigger parlays later. Lets now just keep the system where it is.
0
As we always want to maximize our profts, lets calculate if we could add something to the parlays on the over/under system:
Lets say we have 5 games like yesterday. Lets say that we would have the 5 singles 10 dollars a piece and then have 10 doubles, 10 triples, 4 four-game parlays and 1 five game parlay. 1 dollar each.
It would cost us 25 bucks. What could we win as extra? Lets calculate with average of 2,25 odds per single, 5 odds per double, 11 odds for triple: 25 odds for fourgame and 55 odds for fivegame bet.
Options: 1 game right: 0 extra bucks, loss of 25 bucks 2 games right: 5 extra bucks, loss of 20 bucks 3 games right: 26 extra bucks, profit of 1 buck 4 games right: 99 extra bucks, profit of 74 bucks 5 games right: 315 extra bucks, profit of 290 bucks
With 4-game it would be same extra bucks as above but with 11 dollars bet. So: 1 game right: loss of 11 bucks 2 games right, loss of 6 bucks 3 games right: profit of 15 bucks 4 games right: profit of 88 bucks
WIth 3 game one (7 bucks bet): 1 game right: loss of 7 2 games right: loss of 2 3 games right:profit of 19 bucks
And for fun lets do a 6 game one (57 bucks bet): 1 game right: loss of 57 2 games right: loss of 52 3 games right: loss of 31 4 games right: profit of 42 5 games right: profit of 258 6 games right: proft of ca 800 bucks (didnt calcuate but is quite close)
So what can we get from this? - betting 6 games and all systems: Need to get 4/6 right to get profit. Sounds very high variance. The losses on average are bigger with 1/6, 2/6 and 3/6 than what the 4/6 would brings. 5 or 6 right of course pay well. - betting 5 games and all systems: Need 3/5 to break even. 1/5 or 2/5 would lose ca 22,5 bucks. 4/5 would bring 74 bucks. - betting 4 games and all systems: 3/4 would bring a rather ok profit of 15 bucks, whereas 1/4 or 2/4 would lose just a little, average 8,5 bucks. - betting 3 games and all systems: all right brings 19 bucks, otherwise average loss of 4,5 bucks. Not bad. - betting a triple without the doubles: costs 1 and brings 10 profit if hits.
Conclusions: 1. betting all 6 games with all system is way too high variance for our budget. 2. betting 5 games with all systems, we would have to hit 4/5 once every 4 times to make a small profit. Of course hitting 5 would be a huge added bonus. Even 2/5 right would lose 20 bucks extra. 3. Betting 4 games with all systems we would have to hit 3/4 every 3rd time and would have a small minus. 4/4 would bring 88 extra profit 4. Betting 3 games with all systems, we would have to hit 3/3 every 5 times to break even. Doable, but is it worth it? 5. Betting just a triple with 1 dollar: need to hit it once in 11 times to break even. Surely doable.
So basically, I think that we should keep doing the single with 10 dollars each and the double with 5 bucks each. We should however maybe change the triple for 5 bucks to triple for 1 buck. Just to reduce the variance a bit. Or maybe to 2,5 to keep it exciting.
We could add the 3 games with all systems instead though but its not really worth it. We are trying to make money with making loads of bets of singles and occasional doubles when its just 2 games.
We could also just do all doubles or all triples when we have 4 or 5 or and doubles, triples and 4games when we have 6 games but it doesnt make sense as adding the extra 4games, 5games and 6games wouldnt really cost taht much.
We could also jsust do all 4 games and no doubles or triples when we have a 4 game night. And 5 games when we have 5 game night, and 6 when we have a 6 game night. - We would hit the 4 game one every 20th times, 5 game one every 50th time and 6 game one every 110th time. Marginal profits. We could be also waiting for a long time to hit them, so we would just end up tying our money in in a way.
Gonna think about it a bit. To me it sounds like we wanna concentrate just on the singles and occasional doubles and get the triple in every now and then.
We might return to doing these bigger parlays later. Lets now just keep the system where it is.
10 dollars on each game: 1. Panthers-Oilers Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN 2. Boston-Detroit Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 WIN
5 dollars on double of both with odds 4,84 WIN
We got everything right, made a profit of +43,2 dollars, great!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+140,2 dollars (singles), +190,3 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +29,55 Total for these systems: +292,1 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +205,60 dollars.
Over/unders hitting so far: - Over 5,5: 16/24 right - Under 4,5: 7/13 right
Singles hitting so far: 21/35: +140,2 dollars Doubles hitting so far: 3/3 +60,10 dollars Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
0
RESULTS:
10 dollars on each game: 1. Panthers-Oilers Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN 2. Boston-Detroit Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 WIN
5 dollars on double of both with odds 4,84 WIN
We got everything right, made a profit of +43,2 dollars, great!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+140,2 dollars (singles), +190,3 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +29,55 Total for these systems: +292,1 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +205,60 dollars.
Over/unders hitting so far: - Over 5,5: 16/24 right - Under 4,5: 7/13 right
Singles hitting so far: 21/35: +140,2 dollars Doubles hitting so far: 3/3 +60,10 dollars Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
10 dollars on each game: 1. Rangers-Toronto Under 5,5 with odds 2,25 2. Coyotes-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 3. Capitals-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 4. Nashville-Calgary Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 5. TB-SJ Under 4,5 with odds 2,30
Also, putting extra 5 bucks on Toronto-Rangers Under 5,5 with odds 2,25 as a bookie mistake system bet. Havent seen under 5,5 with those odds before. Maybe they just expect Toronto and Rangers to score truck loads of goals? We will see.
As always, good luck to us!
0
10 dollars on each game: 1. Rangers-Toronto Under 5,5 with odds 2,25 2. Coyotes-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 3. Capitals-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 4. Nashville-Calgary Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 5. TB-SJ Under 4,5 with odds 2,30
Also, putting extra 5 bucks on Toronto-Rangers Under 5,5 with odds 2,25 as a bookie mistake system bet. Havent seen under 5,5 with those odds before. Maybe they just expect Toronto and Rangers to score truck loads of goals? We will see.
I've been playing Dan's system for a couple of years. Maybe it's the terminology of hockey I have trouble understanding this system and can't find those odds
0
I've been playing Dan's system for a couple of years. Maybe it's the terminology of hockey I have trouble understanding this system and can't find those odds
I've been playing Dan's system for a couple of years. Maybe it's the terminology of hockey I have trouble understanding this system and can't find those odds
Thanks for the question!
Simple answer: You find the odds on your own betting site's NHL games Over/Under odds. They are European odds, hence e.g. 2,20 odds are +120 in the US. 2.30 would be +130 etc.
How it works in deteail is this: 1. I check my betting site's odds for all NHL games' Over/Under. 2. I look for all matches with odds of 2,15 (+115) or more on either Over or Under. 3. I bet those games with Over or Under depending on which one has the odds of 2,15 or more. 4. I also bet a double if there are only 2 games playable.
Why it works (hopefully): 1. My assumption is that all games are a coin flip between ending Over or Under (Over or Under 5,5 or Over or Under 4,5. I consider both options coin flips). 2. The bookies give higher and lower odds than e.g. giving 1,90 to both because they want to get as many bets as possible. That is what we take advantage of. They dont seem to do it because teams would score more or less than other teams. 3. Normally every second game has odds of 2,15 or more, hence we get to play ca 5 games per day. 4. Our odds are ca 2,24 (+124) per game, hence we win on average ca 1,12 dollars per game, no matter if we win or lose, if we bet 10 dollars per game and win every second bet.
What can we win overall: 1. With ca 615 games bet per season we should profit ca 689 dollars during a season. 2. We will also win more with the doubles (and maybe with the triples and systems if want to include those later). With doubles we win 1,25 dollars per double we bet (more calculations about that and other possibilities on earlier pages). 3. We also have our 2 other systems (the early goal system and the bookie mistakes system), more info about them on the previous pages.
What do we do if it really seems to work? 1. We will either increase our bets OR 2. We will inrease our games (look for other ice-hockey leagues) OR 3. Expand the system to pretty much any sport that has Over/Under.
The idea behind playing as many games as possible is to be able to avoid the variance in BR caused by playing just a few games with a high bet. How I see is that if we play e.g. 20 games per night for altogether 100 bucks, its better when thinking about BR variance than playing just 5 games with altogether 100 bucks. More coin flips faster leads to getting closer to EV faster. As that is where we will end up in the end if our assumption about the coin flips is right.
0
Quote Originally Posted by leo81:
I've been playing Dan's system for a couple of years. Maybe it's the terminology of hockey I have trouble understanding this system and can't find those odds
Thanks for the question!
Simple answer: You find the odds on your own betting site's NHL games Over/Under odds. They are European odds, hence e.g. 2,20 odds are +120 in the US. 2.30 would be +130 etc.
How it works in deteail is this: 1. I check my betting site's odds for all NHL games' Over/Under. 2. I look for all matches with odds of 2,15 (+115) or more on either Over or Under. 3. I bet those games with Over or Under depending on which one has the odds of 2,15 or more. 4. I also bet a double if there are only 2 games playable.
Why it works (hopefully): 1. My assumption is that all games are a coin flip between ending Over or Under (Over or Under 5,5 or Over or Under 4,5. I consider both options coin flips). 2. The bookies give higher and lower odds than e.g. giving 1,90 to both because they want to get as many bets as possible. That is what we take advantage of. They dont seem to do it because teams would score more or less than other teams. 3. Normally every second game has odds of 2,15 or more, hence we get to play ca 5 games per day. 4. Our odds are ca 2,24 (+124) per game, hence we win on average ca 1,12 dollars per game, no matter if we win or lose, if we bet 10 dollars per game and win every second bet.
What can we win overall: 1. With ca 615 games bet per season we should profit ca 689 dollars during a season. 2. We will also win more with the doubles (and maybe with the triples and systems if want to include those later). With doubles we win 1,25 dollars per double we bet (more calculations about that and other possibilities on earlier pages). 3. We also have our 2 other systems (the early goal system and the bookie mistakes system), more info about them on the previous pages.
What do we do if it really seems to work? 1. We will either increase our bets OR 2. We will inrease our games (look for other ice-hockey leagues) OR 3. Expand the system to pretty much any sport that has Over/Under.
The idea behind playing as many games as possible is to be able to avoid the variance in BR caused by playing just a few games with a high bet. How I see is that if we play e.g. 20 games per night for altogether 100 bucks, its better when thinking about BR variance than playing just 5 games with altogether 100 bucks. More coin flips faster leads to getting closer to EV faster. As that is where we will end up in the end if our assumption about the coin flips is right.
RESULTS: 10 dollars on each game: 1. Rangers-Toronto Under 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS 2. Coyotes-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN 3. Capitals-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN 4. Nashville-Calgary Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 LOSS 5. TB-SJ Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 WIN
Hunting for a bookie mistake for 5 dollars with Rangers-Toronto Under 5,5 LOSS -was not a bookie mistake, just another coin toss. Will count it to the bookie mistakes system still.
3/5 right, we won +13 dollars, good!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+153,2 dollars (singles), +203,3 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for these systems: +305,1 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +218,60 dollars.
Over/unders hitting so far: - Over 5,5: 18/26 right - Under 4,5: 8/15 right - Under 5,5: 0/1 right
Singles hitting so far: 26/42: +153,2 dollars Doubles hitting so far: 3/3 +60,10 dollars Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
0
RESULTS: 10 dollars on each game: 1. Rangers-Toronto Under 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS 2. Coyotes-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN 3. Capitals-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN 4. Nashville-Calgary Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 LOSS 5. TB-SJ Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 WIN
Hunting for a bookie mistake for 5 dollars with Rangers-Toronto Under 5,5 LOSS -was not a bookie mistake, just another coin toss. Will count it to the bookie mistakes system still.
3/5 right, we won +13 dollars, good!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+153,2 dollars (singles), +203,3 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for these systems: +305,1 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +218,60 dollars.
Over/unders hitting so far: - Over 5,5: 18/26 right - Under 4,5: 8/15 right - Under 5,5: 0/1 right
Singles hitting so far: 26/42: +153,2 dollars Doubles hitting so far: 3/3 +60,10 dollars Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
Correcting some mistakes in the numbers above, added too little dollars to some sections:
3/5 right, we won +18 dollars, good! (+13 with the bookie mistake bet included)
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+158,2 dollars (singles), +208,3 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for these systems: +305,1 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +218,60 dollars.
Over/unders hitting so far: - Over 5,5: 18/26 right - Under 4,5: 8/15 right - Under 5,5: 0/1 right
Singles hitting so far: 26/42: +158,2 dollars Doubles hitting so far: 3/3 +60,10 dollars Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
0
Correcting some mistakes in the numbers above, added too little dollars to some sections:
3/5 right, we won +18 dollars, good! (+13 with the bookie mistake bet included)
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+158,2 dollars (singles), +208,3 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for these systems: +305,1 dollars. Total for these and all other bets so far: +218,60 dollars.
Over/unders hitting so far: - Over 5,5: 18/26 right - Under 4,5: 8/15 right - Under 5,5: 0/1 right
Singles hitting so far: 26/42: +158,2 dollars Doubles hitting so far: 3/3 +60,10 dollars Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars
Next time I will only include the all systems' totals separately and all systems altogether. I will include the singles/doubles etc hitting and overall Over/Unders hitting stats e.g. every 5 rounds. Makes it easier to update and easier to follow the results for the readers. I will leave out the all possible bets too, because its not really relevant. I am always looking for more systems and that needs some money, I dont think that people need to know if I bet on anything else besides the systems and how much. I at the moment do not, but might start testing other systems or other ice-hockey series at some points. Lets keep this thread just NHL with those 3 systems.
Thanks for following! Hopefully some (more) people jump along at some points, we are still running pretty hot.
0
Next time I will only include the all systems' totals separately and all systems altogether. I will include the singles/doubles etc hitting and overall Over/Unders hitting stats e.g. every 5 rounds. Makes it easier to update and easier to follow the results for the readers. I will leave out the all possible bets too, because its not really relevant. I am always looking for more systems and that needs some money, I dont think that people need to know if I bet on anything else besides the systems and how much. I at the moment do not, but might start testing other systems or other ice-hockey series at some points. Lets keep this thread just NHL with those 3 systems.
Thanks for following! Hopefully some (more) people jump along at some points, we are still running pretty hot.
10 dollars on each game: 1. Blackhawks-Bruins Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) 2. Detroit-Buffalo Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) 3. Montreal-NJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) 4. Nashville-Edmonton Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) 5. Panthers-Canucks Under 4,5 with odds 2,17 (+117)
We were able to play 5/6 games going on tonight. We will follow a bit more on how many games we are able to play each night. That helps to estimate our profits per season if we win half of all of our bets. Average odds for the night are 2,224 (+122,4). Following this will help predict the possible profits too.
Good luck to us!
0
10 dollars on each game: 1. Blackhawks-Bruins Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) 2. Detroit-Buffalo Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) 3. Montreal-NJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) 4. Nashville-Edmonton Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) 5. Panthers-Canucks Under 4,5 with odds 2,17 (+117)
We were able to play 5/6 games going on tonight. We will follow a bit more on how many games we are able to play each night. That helps to estimate our profits per season if we win half of all of our bets. Average odds for the night are 2,224 (+122,4). Following this will help predict the possible profits too.
Not sure what to think about these Under 5,5 games. The was with the Rangers-Toronto game yesterday. I dont see how this game could be in any way a big favorite to go over 5,5. I say its a coin toss like every other of these games. I may be proven wrong though.
By the way, tomorrow evening might be rather sick. 11 games, we get to play probably ca 8.
By the way nr2, I just checked the Over/Under odds for the Finnish ice-hockey league and from 7 games the highest Over/Under odds are 2,07. No money to be made there apparently. Gonna have to follow it a bit closer to see the odds. Other leagues too, we want to get in there at some point I think. But not with odds 2,07, no way.
0
Pittsburgh-Carolina just became playable:
Under 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120)
Not sure what to think about these Under 5,5 games. The was with the Rangers-Toronto game yesterday. I dont see how this game could be in any way a big favorite to go over 5,5. I say its a coin toss like every other of these games. I may be proven wrong though.
By the way, tomorrow evening might be rather sick. 11 games, we get to play probably ca 8.
By the way nr2, I just checked the Over/Under odds for the Finnish ice-hockey league and from 7 games the highest Over/Under odds are 2,07. No money to be made there apparently. Gonna have to follow it a bit closer to see the odds. Other leagues too, we want to get in there at some point I think. But not with odds 2,07, no way.
Keep up the good work, been following for a couple days now, checked in to see/hope you were playing under on the Nash/Edm game.... Unfortunately you are not.
Bol bud
0
Keep up the good work, been following for a couple days now, checked in to see/hope you were playing under on the Nash/Edm game.... Unfortunately you are not.
Keep up the good work, been following for a couple days now, checked in to see/hope you were playing under on the Nash/Edm game.... Unfortunately you are not.
Bol bud
Thanks man, highly appreciated! I wish the odds told me to play that one for sure, last night was brutallllll. The 3 previous nights were golden though.
RESULTS: 10 dollars on each game: 1. Blackhawks-Bruins Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS 2. Detroit-Buffalo Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) LOSS 3. Montreal-NJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) LOSS 4. Nashville-Edmonton Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) LOSS 5. Panthers-Canucks Under 4,5 with odds 2,17 (+117) WIN 6. Pittsburgh-Carolina Under 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) LOSS
1/6 right, we lost -38,3 dollars, brutalllll. But actually.. doesnt sound that bad when looking at the previous nights' success. Lets trust that the success continues!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+119,9 dollars (singles), +170,0 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for all three systems: +266,8 dollars.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Eprince:
Keep up the good work, been following for a couple days now, checked in to see/hope you were playing under on the Nash/Edm game.... Unfortunately you are not.
Bol bud
Thanks man, highly appreciated! I wish the odds told me to play that one for sure, last night was brutallllll. The 3 previous nights were golden though.
RESULTS: 10 dollars on each game: 1. Blackhawks-Bruins Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS 2. Detroit-Buffalo Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) LOSS 3. Montreal-NJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) LOSS 4. Nashville-Edmonton Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) LOSS 5. Panthers-Canucks Under 4,5 with odds 2,17 (+117) WIN 6. Pittsburgh-Carolina Under 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) LOSS
1/6 right, we lost -38,3 dollars, brutalllll. But actually.. doesnt sound that bad when looking at the previous nights' success. Lets trust that the success continues!
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+119,9 dollars (singles), +170,0 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+72,25 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for all three systems: +266,8 dollars.
10 dollars on each game: 1. Carolina-Columbus Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) 2. Buffalo-Montrea Over 5,5 with odds 2,35 (+135) 3. Kings-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) 4. Devils-Flyers Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) 5. TB-Arizona Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) 6. Colorado-SJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125)
We get to play 6/11 games tonight with average odds of 2,23 (+123).
I will check later tonight if any of the odds change when the games get closer, to see whether we should make the bets earlier or later in the future. Also to see if any other games become playable.
Gooooood luck to us!
0
10 dollars on each game: 1. Carolina-Columbus Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) 2. Buffalo-Montrea Over 5,5 with odds 2,35 (+135) 3. Kings-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) 4. Devils-Flyers Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) 5. TB-Arizona Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) 6. Colorado-SJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125)
We get to play 6/11 games tonight with average odds of 2,23 (+123).
I will check later tonight if any of the odds change when the games get closer, to see whether we should make the bets earlier or later in the future. Also to see if any other games become playable.
Tested the system on Finnish ice-hockey's highest tier Liiga. 7 games, all games had the Over/Under line on 4,5. the odds were basically 50/50, ca 1,8/1,8 each game, with even the unders having the higher odds mostly.
2 games over 2,00 overall. 1 game with 2,15 Over. I bet it, and won. 5/7 games ended with over 4,5 goals. I could basically bet all games over 4,5 and probably win half or a bit more.
The problem is that.. if the average odds are ca 1,80 for the over, we need to hit 4/7 to make even the smallest profit of 2 bucks with betting 10 bucks each. 2 bucks with getting 4/7 right.... 5/7 would bring a profit of 20 bucks and 3/7 a loss of 16 bucks. I dont like it.
Comparing to our NHL Over/Under: 3/7 would bring a loss of 2,8 bucks. 4/7 would bring a profit of 19,6 bucks. 5/7 would bring profit of 42 bucks.
The difference is pretty huge. Of course the Liiga Overs could hit a bit more but not that much. Those could be a coin flip again.
I should also check better what the average odds for the Overs are. I do like the idea of even soon starting to look for all possible Over/Under odds of 2,15 or more. Preferably of 2,20 or 2,25, if there are some games available for each ice hockey league.
I will probably do a test of NFL/NBA/Baseball soon (do they even run now?, Ive never played them :D)
Anyone have any idea if its difficult to bet Over/Under in those sports? If it is, then this system probably could work there as well. Still not proven to work in the NHL either of course but I think it looks promising.
0
Tested the system on Finnish ice-hockey's highest tier Liiga. 7 games, all games had the Over/Under line on 4,5. the odds were basically 50/50, ca 1,8/1,8 each game, with even the unders having the higher odds mostly.
2 games over 2,00 overall. 1 game with 2,15 Over. I bet it, and won. 5/7 games ended with over 4,5 goals. I could basically bet all games over 4,5 and probably win half or a bit more.
The problem is that.. if the average odds are ca 1,80 for the over, we need to hit 4/7 to make even the smallest profit of 2 bucks with betting 10 bucks each. 2 bucks with getting 4/7 right.... 5/7 would bring a profit of 20 bucks and 3/7 a loss of 16 bucks. I dont like it.
Comparing to our NHL Over/Under: 3/7 would bring a loss of 2,8 bucks. 4/7 would bring a profit of 19,6 bucks. 5/7 would bring profit of 42 bucks.
The difference is pretty huge. Of course the Liiga Overs could hit a bit more but not that much. Those could be a coin flip again.
I should also check better what the average odds for the Overs are. I do like the idea of even soon starting to look for all possible Over/Under odds of 2,15 or more. Preferably of 2,20 or 2,25, if there are some games available for each ice hockey league.
I will probably do a test of NFL/NBA/Baseball soon (do they even run now?, Ive never played them :D)
Anyone have any idea if its difficult to bet Over/Under in those sports? If it is, then this system probably could work there as well. Still not proven to work in the NHL either of course but I think it looks promising.
Lets check what the odds would have been if we had bet them later: We bet: 1. Carolina-Columbus Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) (now: 2,00) 2. Buffalo-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,35 (+135) (now: 2,35) 3. Kings-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) (now: 2,15) 4. Devils-Flyers Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) (now: 2,25) 5. TB-Arizona Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) (now: 2,25) 6. Colorado-SJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) (now: 2,20)
Average odds when we bet them: 2,23 (now: 2,24 with 5 games and 2,2 with 6 games). 6, vs 5 games because Columbus-Caronila wouldve fallen out had we waited longer.
Doesnt seem to make much difference whether we bet early or wait. Maybe 1 game falls off or another one comes in. In the long run doesnt matter.
We will bet Blues-Jets in our early goal system if one of the teams scores witin the first 10 minutes (preferably 5 minutes).
0
Lets check what the odds would have been if we had bet them later: We bet: 1. Carolina-Columbus Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) (now: 2,00) 2. Buffalo-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,35 (+135) (now: 2,35) 3. Kings-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) (now: 2,15) 4. Devils-Flyers Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) (now: 2,25) 5. TB-Arizona Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) (now: 2,25) 6. Colorado-SJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) (now: 2,20)
Average odds when we bet them: 2,23 (now: 2,24 with 5 games and 2,2 with 6 games). 6, vs 5 games because Columbus-Caronila wouldve fallen out had we waited longer.
Doesnt seem to make much difference whether we bet early or wait. Maybe 1 game falls off or another one comes in. In the long run doesnt matter.
We will bet Blues-Jets in our early goal system if one of the teams scores witin the first 10 minutes (preferably 5 minutes).
Damn, was watching a movie and missed putting in the bet for Blues when WInnipeg scored during the fisrt 10 minutes. Thats the problem with live betting systems, takes time to follow, one can miss an opportunity etc. Oh well.
0
Damn, was watching a movie and missed putting in the bet for Blues when WInnipeg scored during the fisrt 10 minutes. Thats the problem with live betting systems, takes time to follow, one can miss an opportunity etc. Oh well.
RESULTS: 10 dollars on each game: 1. Carolina-Columbus Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) LOSS 2. Buffalo-Montrea Over 5,5 with odds 2,35 (+135) LOSS 3. Kings-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN 4. Devils-Flyers Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS 5. TB-Arizona Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) WIN 6. Colorado-SJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS
2/6 right, loss of 16 dollars, thats alright.
Also a 2,5 dollar loss in the early goal system.
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+103,9 dollars (singles), +154,0 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+69,75 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for all three systems: +248,3 dollars.
0
RESULTS: 10 dollars on each game: 1. Carolina-Columbus Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) LOSS 2. Buffalo-Montrea Over 5,5 with odds 2,35 (+135) LOSS 3. Kings-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN 4. Devils-Flyers Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS 5. TB-Arizona Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) WIN 6. Colorado-SJ Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS
2/6 right, loss of 16 dollars, thats alright.
Also a 2,5 dollar loss in the early goal system.
Our 3 systems and totals: 1. Over/Under system:+103,9 dollars (singles), +154,0 dollars (singles and parlays) 2. Early goal system:+69,75 dollars 3. Bookie mistakes system: +24,55 Total for all three systems: +248,3 dollars.
Damn, we lost both and the double of course as well. Last 3 rounds have lost us the same amount that we won during the previous 3 rounds. That is basically how it should go, right? If the games are coin flips, we should end up at 1000/2000 like we wrote. We are not getting close to that in the short run as we are now 29/55 with the singles.
As also wrote before, if we start running a lot below EV, ´then we might have to end the system. That is because we are not ready to go e.g. 1k or even 500 bucks minus to reach the positive results in the end of the year. That is because we have not proven the system yet. Even if it has gone really well and is still above EV, we have not proven it. This all could have been just an amazing run and nothing more. We will have to continue and just wait and see.
Right now Im laying down a spot where we would quite the system: - We are now 29/55 right. - If we are after 100 games at 40/100 or less, then we will stop the system. So we need to win 11 out of the next 45 games. Doesnt sound very difficult, BUT... If our original assumption was totally off... then we will not win that. - We are of course hoping to reach our EV of 50/100. Would have to to go 21/45 to get there.
0
Damn, we lost both and the double of course as well. Last 3 rounds have lost us the same amount that we won during the previous 3 rounds. That is basically how it should go, right? If the games are coin flips, we should end up at 1000/2000 like we wrote. We are not getting close to that in the short run as we are now 29/55 with the singles.
As also wrote before, if we start running a lot below EV, ´then we might have to end the system. That is because we are not ready to go e.g. 1k or even 500 bucks minus to reach the positive results in the end of the year. That is because we have not proven the system yet. Even if it has gone really well and is still above EV, we have not proven it. This all could have been just an amazing run and nothing more. We will have to continue and just wait and see.
Right now Im laying down a spot where we would quite the system: - We are now 29/55 right. - If we are after 100 games at 40/100 or less, then we will stop the system. So we need to win 11 out of the next 45 games. Doesnt sound very difficult, BUT... If our original assumption was totally off... then we will not win that. - We are of course hoping to reach our EV of 50/100. Would have to to go 21/45 to get there.
BOL with this as you continue. I had a system somewhat similar to this that I was using earlier this season. It made me over 30 units the first two weeks trying it, only to forfeit 24 of those units right back the very next week. Very frustrating.
0
BOL with this as you continue. I had a system somewhat similar to this that I was using earlier this season. It made me over 30 units the first two weeks trying it, only to forfeit 24 of those units right back the very next week. Very frustrating.
Hot Forum Topics
