Hitting On Hot Singles (HOTS) - an NHL betting system

We will try to use the point system now with over/under bets. Will try to first find some variables that would support the game going over or under. Did not find any correlation with the total amount of points to the amount of goals in the game.

I am thinking that weak goalies could lead to more goals. Or then they could lead to teams defending too much, as they dont trust their goalie, which leads to not scoring that much. We will still take it as a sign of a match with many goals until proven otherwise. Also, we will try to see if any teams seem to be having many over or under matches within their last 10 matches. Not sure what else to consider right now.

Here is our BR so far, divided into our different "experiments". Lets call it an experiment BR, because that is what it essentially is right now. Without proper backtesting/backtracking we can not stick to just one thing that does not seem to work. We will try different things. And if somethign seems to work, then we will be patient with it, regardless of the short term results. We hope we can do that :D

The BR:
1. -1,5 handicap singles: 1/6: minus 36,5 dollars.
2. -1,5 handicap doubles: 1/2: minus 15 dollars
3. Betting a three-way win for a team that gives up one goal in the start of the match: 2/2: plus 66 dollars
4. Finding (or accidentally getting) a bookie mistake and using it: 1/1: plus 26 dollars.
5. Betting the goals of the game: 0/1: minus 5 dollars.

Total BR:+35,5 dollars.

We will certainly try keep trying the three-way betting for the team that gives up a goal early if they are a favorite or if it is an even match. We will not do any -1,5 singles or parlays right now. We will not bet the goals of the game unless we find another match with very weak goalies and defence and good offence on both sides, an even match too.

Ok, I am off to search for variables for the over and under bets.

Have you tried that and how has it gone? If you continue to do it, I will unfortunately not post the points anymore as I will not have the same point criteria and variables anymore starting from today, as I will look for variables for over/under bets.

The first over/under bet is 10 dollars for Dal@LA under 5,5 with odds 1,65. Odds I do not like but will make the bet.

Did not calculate any points because I could not find any worthwhile variables. The last 10 games' over/under seem pointless. The matches against each other too. I made this pick by looking at the trends of Over/Under for both teams. The match screamed Under much more than the other matches screamed over or under. We would have to hit this 3 times out of 4 though to even barely break even. Hence just this is not going to be the way we will go in the near future. We need to find variables that others ignore so that we can find better odds. Or that support the low odds so much that they are worth it even with them.

We really sniffed that didnt we... not!

We must return to the origins of why we wanted to create a system and what type of system we exactly wanted to create. Yesterday's bet had a very subjective basis. It was only loosely based on data and we do not want to do that. BUT, it did bring us to a new test that is ONLY based on data, no opinions nothing to discuss.

The system that we will try (but will first backtrack tonight) is:

Play an under or over (not decided yet) on a game if both of the teams have gone under or over last in their previous match.

Example (imaginary):
- Dallas - NJ
-> both have played an Under game in their previous game
--> we play hence this match under or over, depending on what our backtracking shows us

Example 2 (imaginary):
- Edm - Car
-> both have played an Over game in their previous game
--> we play hence this match under or over, depending on what our backtracking shows

It can even be that both options (previous game under or over for both teams) leads to us betting under in both scenarios. Everything will depend on what our data shows.

This is now the first system possibility which we can rather easily backtrack. This includes no points but it does not mean that we wont return to them at some point.

I will post the findings and then the first bet/bets later tonight.

ALSO, we might do a progressive system with this. I would rather do a positive one, because the negative ones create too much variance to the BR in my opinion.

We have no idea yet if we will find many games to play, but my common sense says that yes, we will, as a match can end only over or under (and rarely push, although we can create an artificial level of 5,5 to every game to avoid this).

Statistics of the system described above after 22 games (it is very very slow to check, still possible and easy but slow):

22 games:
- 12 Over (Over 5,5)
- 10 Under (Under 5,5)

Matches with both team going under and over in their previous game:
- 14 matches overall
- 5 games with Over and the team's previous matches were Over
- 3 games Over (Under + Under)
- 3 games Under (Under + Under)
- 3 games Under (Over + Over)

We need to calculate more. We would need to get a to a loooot of games to have anything statististically worth it but lets try to find even something relevant. Will contunue calculating.

By the way, out of the games which did not have over+over or under+under in the previous games:
- 5 games Over (Under+Over)
- 3 tames Under (Under+Over)

After 51 games:

51 games:
- 23 Over (Over 5,5)
- 28 Under (Under 5,5)

Matches with both team going under and over in their previous game:
- 26 matches overall
- 5 games with Over and the team's previous matches were Over
- 8 games Over (Under + Under)
- 8 games Under (Under + Under)
- 5 games Under (Over + Over)

- 10 games Over (Under+Over)
- 15 tames Under (Under+Over)

Haha, well, really hard to get anything, I mean ANYTHing out of that, Nothing stands out. If its under+under it can be over or under. The same thing if it has been over+over. The only thing that comes up is the positive difference of Under when it has been under+over, but that is probably just because there are more under games as I made the artificial 5,5 instead of what the game actually was. I should calculate this much more to see if tehre is any difference anywhere but I doubt it.

Oh my.. Not playing anything from this system tonight then. Coming up with new variables and things to calculate tomorrow. Maybe Dan has some good bet that I can copy.

No bets for Dan out yet, so I will do one new test with the Over/Under matters.

They seem to be a coinflip, very much. I am hence picking the highest odds for Over/Under game of 4,5 and the same for a 5,5 game.

Today picks are:
10 dollars on Nashville-Vancouver Under 4,5 with odds 2.30 (+130)
10 dollars on Edmonton-SJ Over 5,5 with 2.25 (+125)
5 dollars on the double as well with odds 5.18 (+418)

We won all the 3 bets

The BR/Our system tests so far:
1. -1,5 handicap singles: 1/6: minus 36,5 dollars.
2. -1,5 handicap doubles: 1/2: minus 15 dollars
3. Betting a three-way win for a team that gives up one goal in the start of the match: 2/2: plus 66 dollars
4. Finding (or accidentally getting) a bookie mistake and using it: 1/1: plus 26 dollars.
5. Betting the goals of the game: 0/1: minus 5 dollars.
6. Betting Over/Under based on trends: 0/1: minus 10 dollars
7. Backtracking games with both teams having over+over or under+under in their previous game: No significant results, no bets.
8. Betting the highest odds singles of an Over/Under 4,5 game and 5,5 game: 2/2: plus 24,5 dollars.
9. As above in number 8, but as a double: plus 20,90 dollars.

Total BR:+70,90 dollars.

We are liking the latest system. It is very easy and there is always something to play. We will decide later what to do if two matches have the same odds. One could backtrack the odds of over/under for pervious games and compare them to the results. Cant seem to find the previous odds though so might just need to follow the system while we do it.

Will try to think of more system possibilities and keep doing this one at least until that. Or maybe this is THE system? Who knows.

Today's Over/Under is Winnipeg-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125). 10 dollars to win 22,5 dollars.

Lets do some calculations with this system:

1. Assumption:
- All games are pretty much a coin flip on whether they will be Over or Under. Hence betting the one with the highest odds brings profits in the long run.
2. Calculating the profits.
- We bet 10 dollars per game with average odds of 2,25 (+125)
- We win every second game, hence we make a 2,5 dollar profit every two games, thats ca 1,25 dollars per day (if there is one game to play per day).
- If there are two games per day, we make 2,5 dollars per day with the method shown above. We will also make an additional 5 dollars profit for every 4 doubles we play. That is because we hit it 1 time out of 4. 20 dollars brings ca 25 dollars each time.
3. Overall profit from all that above:
- 1 game per day: 1,25 dollars per day
- 2 games per day: 3,75 dollar per day

So we should really strive for having 2 games per day. We will get that too as normally there will be games with Over/Under of 5,5 and 4,5. We pick the highest odds from each.

What if the system works and we would play ALL odds of 2,20 or more?
- Lets calculate:
-> eg ca 4 matches per day (theres probably more like 6): makes 5 dollars per day. Not sure if we would do any doubles or bigger parlays then. Would have to calculate the benefits.

What if we only did Doubles?
- e.g. 1 double per day. 10 dollars to win 50. We win it 1 time out of 4. Daily profit is 2,5 dollars.

To me it sounds like the best bet would be to have 2 games per day, make 2 singles out of them and a double.

I am though interested in playing all games on a given day.

ROI on this system would be:
- 1 game per day (or 2 games or 3 or 4 if its all singles): 12,5 %
- 2 games per day + a double: 15 %

Dont feel like calculating the bigger parlays right now. If this seems to work might as well do them as well.

But how about a negative/positive progressive systems? We need to calculate those!

1. Simplified: 1 game per day (betting 1,2,5 units). Unit is 10 dollars.
- We win first, we are up 1,2 units, thats 12 dollars, 12 dollars per day.
- We lose the first, win second, we are up 1,4 units, so 14 dollars, we have 7 dollars per day.
- We lose the first, lose second, win third, up 3 units, so 30 dollars, thats 10 dollars per day
- We lose all 3, we lose 8 units, thats 80 dollars.

How many times would we lose 3 in a row? Lets say we win 1 on first, 1 on 2nd and 1 on 3rd and then lose 3 in a row. We would win 56 dollars and lose 80. If we dont lose 3 in a row every 4th time, but lets say every 7th time, we would win 112 and lose 80. Profit of 32, Divide that profit with the amount of days 1+2+3+1+2+3+3=15. 32/15 is 2,13 dollars per day.

If I calculated that right... I dont think its worth it, Just increases the variance and doesnt sound like it brings that much extra profit, if at all, especially compared to the hope 2 games per day + a double. The system above is still more proftable than just 1 single per day, but the difference in variance is pretty huge.

Ok, too much maths. Please correct me if you see any blatant mistakes. I dont feel like calculating a positive progressive system either at least yet.

Lets see how this goes, feels good at least now

By the way, we have not decided what to do if there are e.g. 6 games with the same 2,2 odds.. We will probably play them all in that case.

Alright, putting the system to a good test straight away, more bets:

Sharks-Flames Under 4,5. 10 dollars with odds 2,3.
Panthers-Islander Ovet 5,5. 10 dollars with odds 2.2.
We also already did the Winnipeg-game Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (10 dollars).

We also made a parlay with all these 3 games for 5 dollars for 10+ something odds.

Lets see if we are just gonna start playing all possible min 2,2 odds games.

We also did a double inspired by Dan's thread. 5 dollars for Moneyline Sharks and Penguins with odds 4.0.

We like to gamble, as mentioned in the first post. If we ever get our bankroll up more fast, we will just try to keep it rolling. We are happy if we can make that 2,5 dollars a day, which would need us to bet for 20 dollars per day. STILL, We are more than happy to have that same ROI of ca 12,5 % but just bet much much more. with 20 dollars per day we would bet yearly for ca 5k and win ca 600 bucks. We would gladly bet for 50k and win 6k though.

We must manage our BR and risks though. We dont wanna start with betting 200 bucks per day and go broke in a week.

STILL, our first and only goal right now has to be to find the system that we want to use as our backbone. That system can finance other systems as well. It would be great to have maybe 5 different, all working, systems and be able to make truckloads of money with them.

We won the Winnipeg over.
We lost the Panthers over.
We lost the Sharks under.

We of course lost the triple too. Lost the double from Dan.

This new system so far, just singles:
- 3/5. + 17 dollars.

Perfect results so far, I like it a lot. Even if we would lose the next one, we would be up 7 dollars, thats 3,5 dollars per day.

Tonight we take the system a bit farther:
- we bet 7 matches where the odds were min 2,15, 10 dollars each:
1. Flyers-Canucks 2,30 Under 4,5
2. TB-Buffalo 2,15 Over 5,5
3. Wild-Canadiens 2,20 Under 4,5
4. Nashville-Boston 2,20 Under 4,5
5. Colorado-Anaheim 2,15 Over 5,5
6. Oilers-Devils 2,20 Under 4,5
7. Kings-Blues 2,25 Under 4,5

Average odds are 2,207, sounds good.

We are gonna also follow how many overs and unders hit. Maybe we just want to do eg. overs or unders in the future.

So far:
- Over 5,5: 2/3 right
- Under 4,5: 1/2 right

No parlay tonight. We will do a double each night when we have only 2 matches. Maybe a 3 game one when we have 3 matches.

1. Flyers-Canucks 2,30 Under 4,5 LOSS
2. TB-Buffalo 2,15 Over 5,5 WIN
3. Wild-Canadiens 2,20 Under 4,5 LOSS
4. Nashville-Boston 2,20 Under 4,5 WIN
5. Colorado-Anaheim 2,15 Over 5,5 LOSS
6. Oilers-Devils 2,20 Under 4,5 WIN
7. Kings-Blues 2,25 Under 4,5 LOSS

3/7 right. Bet 70 and won 65,5 dollars.

Overall (singles only):
- 6/12 right. +12,5 dollars after 3 days of betting, +4,165 dollars per day.

Overall (all bets):
- 6/12 singles right, +12,5 dollars
- 1/1 doubles right, +20,90 dollars
- 0/1 triples right, -5 dollars.

Total all bets: +28,40 dollars after 3 days of betting, +9,46 dollars per day.

Nice. We will continue this. Still looks like all of these Over/Under bets are a total coin toss.

Lets check the Over/Under, how many we have gotten right/wrong on them:

- Over 5,5: 3/5 right
- Under 4,5: 3/7 right

10 dollars on each:
1. Blackhawks-Capital Under 4,5 with odds 2,20
2. Carolina-Buffalo Over 5,5 with odds 2,25
3. Panthers-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,25
4. Coyotes-Jets Over 5,5 with odds 2,20
5. Flames-Devils Under 4,5 with odds 2,20

Good luck to us!

By the way, our total BR during all the tests is +53,90 dollars.

Also, our ROI during the singles bets only on the new system is: 10,4 %.

ROI during all bets with the new system is: 21,8 %.

If we would have 5 singles per day with 10 % ROI, we would bet ca 10k per year and profit ca 1k. IF we would actually accomplish something like that, we could say that the system seems to be working. Then we should either increase the bets or add another system on the side. As said before, it would be great to have ca 5 working system running at the same time.

1. Blackhawks-Capital Under 4,5 with odds 2,20 LOSS
2. Carolina-Buffalo Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN
3. Panthers-Islanders Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN
4. Coyotes-Jets Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 WIN
5. Flames-Devils Under 4,5 with odds 2,20 WIN

4 out of 5, not bad! Our profit was 38,5 dollars.

Total BR with all tests: +92,4 dollars

After 4 days: BR with only new Over/Under singles: +51 dollars
After 4 days: BR with Over/Under singles and doubles/triples: +66,9 dollars.

ROI of over/under singles: 30 %
ROI of all over/under bets: 37,16 %

So we are running well over EV. That is a good thing because we have less fear of going broke if we hit a really dry streak. Better to be +EV even if we know that we will end at EV in the long run. This is all again assuming that these over/unders are total coin flips.

Over/unders hitting so far:

- Over 5,5: 6/8 right
- Under 4,5: 4/9 right

We will continue tonight!

Biggest evening of the system so far tonight!

10 dollars on each game:
1. Flyers-Bruins Over 5,5 with odds 2,20
2. Colorado-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,25
3. Columbus-Florida Over 5,5 with odds 2,20
4. Rangers-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,25
5. Toronto-Ottawa Over 5,5 with odds 2,15
6. Ducks-Coytes Over 5,5 with odds 2,25
7. Jets-Kings Under 4,5 with odds 2,30
8. Blues-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,25

Hopefully we keep on running hot. Would be nice to build the BR a bit more before the eventual cold streak. If it comes tonight, we must just take it.

Good luck to us!

Ok, we already hit the Bruins-Flyers in 2 periods, nice.

On a side note, I was supposed to try my previous test again, of betting on the favorite/even match if the opponent scores early. I messed up and thought I caught a bookers mistake and bet on Philly instead for 5 bucks.

So I will do it the right way if Colorado scores early and bet on Nashville. Anyways, at least we are not losing all 8 tonight then

Ok, now I did catch a bookie's mistake:

Bet 5 dollars on Colorado-Nashville Under 8,5 with odds 1,71.

I could have bet like 100 bucks and probably win but didnt really feel like doing that. Maybe they'd score 9 anyways and I would blow my roll. Slow is the way to go, we're not here to make a quick bucks, we are here to find working systems. Of course finding bookie mistakes is one of the 3 that Im trying right now. Maybe I need to think how much I want to bet if I do find similar bookie mistakes more often.

Ok, Colorado scored early as I hoped above so I bet 5 dollars on Nashville with odds 3,25.

I believe I can confirm now that the systems we are officially trying out are:

1. Betting every Over/Under with odds 2,15 (+115) or more. All of them.
2. Betting the favorite or the even team to win with ca 3,0-5,0 odds if the underdog/other even team happens to score an early goal (rare, as the games are on mostly when Im asleep).
3. Bookie mistakes, either oddly high odds or oddly high/low lines of Over/Under, wrong odds on a wrong team etc.

Results:

10 dollars on each game:
1. Flyers-Bruins Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 WIN
2. Colorado-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS
3. Columbus-Florida Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 WIN
4. Rangers-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,25WIN
5. Toronto-Ottawa Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 WIN
6. Ducks-Coytes Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS
7. Jets-Kings Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 LOSS
8. Blues-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 LOSS

4/8 right. We ended with +8 dollars. Straight on EV.

Other systems:
- Favorite/even team when the other team scores early: 1/1, +11,25 dollars.
- Using bookie mistakes: 1/1, +3,55 dollars.
(and Messing up a bet by mistake: 0/1, -5 dollars.)

Total for the night: +17,80 dollars.

Our 3 systems and totals:
1. (after 5 days) Betting every Over/Under with odds 2,15 (+115) or more: +59 dollars (singles), +74,9 (singles and parlays)
2. (after 5 days) Betting the favorite or the even team when other team scores early: +77,25 dollars
3. (after 2 bets) Using Bookie mistakes::+29,55

Total for these systems: +181,7 dollars.
Total for these and all other bets so far: +110,20 dollars.

Ok, we apparently won another 23 dollars yesterday with the Jets-Kings Under 4,5. That is because the casino where I bet has 60 minutes with their Over 5,5 and Under 4,5. I thought I was losing each time when I bet Under 4,5 and it went OT or shootout with 2-2, This "change" will not affect our Over 5,5 games though, as they either end with 5 goals or less, or with 6 goals or more.

So updated statistics:

Our 3 systems and totals:
1. (after 5 days) Betting every Over/Under with odds 2,15 (+115) or more: +82 dollars (singles), +97,9 (singles and parlays)
2. (after 3 bets (3/3 right)) Betting the favorite or the even team when other team scores early: +77,25 dollars
3. (after 2 bets (2/2 right)) Using Bookie mistakes::+29,55

Total for these systems: +204,7 dollars.
Total for these and all other bets so far: +123,20 dollars.

From now on we will refer to these systems as:
1. Over/Under system
2. Early goal system
3. Bookie mistakes system

10 dollars on each game:
1. Flyers-Capitals Over 5,5 with odds 2,15
2. Wild-Blackhawks Under 4,5 with odds 2,20
3. Blues-Ducks Over 5,5 with odds 2,20

5 dollars on parlay of all three with odds 10,41.

Good luck to us! Lets hope we keep running hot!

By the way, for system 2 we will bet Washington to win 3-way if Philly scores an early goal.

For system 3... we will see if we spot any mistakes when the game starts. We will try to spot mistakes only with NHL-games as of now.

Results:

10 dollars on each game:
1. Flyers-Capitals Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 LOSS
2. Wild-Blackhawks Under 4,5 with odds 2,20 LOSS
3. Blues-Ducks Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 LOSS

5 dollars on parlay of all three with odds 10,41.
LOSS

Made a loss of 35 bucks. It happens.

Our 3 systems and totals:
1. Over/Under system: +52 dollars (singles), +62,9 (singles and parlays)
2. Early goal system: +77,25 dollars
3. Bookie mistakes system: +29,55

Total for these systems: +169,7 dollars.
Total for these and all other bets so far: +88,20 dollars.

10 dollars on each game:
1. TB-Kings Under 4,5 with odds 2,22
2. Jets-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,25

5 dollars on double of these 2 with odds 5,00.

Early games tonight! Which means good chances of getting to try the Early goal system and maybe Bookie mistakes system too. More games at the same time, more mistakes in live especially it seems.

Early goals system's plays tonight 5 bucks each, if opponent scores early:
- Boston
- Dallas or Sabres, whichever lets in 1 goal first
- Montreal
- Kings
- Sharks

10 dollars on each game:
1. TB-Kings Under 4,5 with odds 2,22 WIN
2. Jets-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 WIN

5 dollars on double of these 2 with odds 5,00 WIN

5 dollars on Dallas when opponent scored first LOSS
5 dollars on Suns (NBA) because of just testing LOSS

We made a profit of +34,7 dollars, nice!


Our 3 systems and totals:
1. Over/Under system: +76,7 dollars (singles), +107,6 dollars (singles and parlays)
2. Early goal system: +72,25 dollars
3. Bookie mistakes system: +29,55

Total for these systems: +209,4 dollars.
Total for these and all other bets so far: +122,90 dollars.

Over/Under stats:
Over/unders hitting so far:

- Over 5,5: 11/18 right
- Under 4,5: 6/12 right

Singles hitting so far: 17/30: +76,7 dollars

Doubles hitting so far: 2/2 +40,90 dollars

Triples hitting so far: 0/2 -10 dollars

10 dollars on each game:
1. Senators-Blues Over 5,5 with odds 2,15
2. Panthers-Flames Over 5,5 with odds 2,30
3. Chicago-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,20
4. TB-Anaheim Over 5,5 with odds 2,25
5. Nashville-Vancouver Under 4,5 with odds 2,30

Lets hope we win at least 2! If 0, then thats how it is, 1 would be pretty bad too, 3 would be awesome and 4 or 5 would be just amazing luck for the night. As said before, we want to win as many in the beginning as possible, to not go broke if we hit ice cold. And also because we like winning

In the long run, if the system truly works, we should be at like 500/1000 after 200 game nights. We could also be like 400/1000 and then 1000/2000 after 400 game nights. 400/1000 would mean that the BR would be ca -1200 bucks. I think we would quit the system much earlier than that. 500/1000 would mean ca +1000 dollars. That is where we are aiming for a season. IF we would run like fire and be 600/1000, we would be ca +3200.

I just like to see where it could go IF all things go in various ways. If our assumption of Over/Under coin flips is right, we will end up ca 50/50 in the very long run. We want to stay above that though.

At some point we should also look at other betting sites. To see if we get better odds somewhere else. That is because the smallest change in odds makes us a lot of money in the long run with this system. Other betting sites probably have mostly 5 instead of 4,5 though. We should calculate how much that would affect our winnings.