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HFOUDL System 2009

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Posted: #151
So far I have White Sox and A's as new chases starting today...what's your take on the Reds, the line opened -104, -104, but now my line has Reds as slight dog at -102....would you lay off?
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

So far I have White Sox and A's as new chases starting today...what's your take on the Reds, the line opened -104, -104, but now my line has Reds as slight dog at -102....would you lay off?


Cincy opened as a fav @ -125 most places, your book must have opened the line late?
They would be a play 2nite, but I've decided not 2 play them this weekend. Either team is capable of sweeping imo.

BOL if u play
 
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Posted: #153
I wouldn't bet CWS, they were not a dog until it closed.

(betting each game of series)
AL = 38-18 (67.86%) +15.82u
NL = 20-9 (68.97%) +8.60u
Total = 58-27 (68.24%) +24.42u

(Chase)
AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
NL = 9-0 (100.00%) +9.00u
Total = 27-0 (100.00%) +27.00u

Games For May 22nd, 2009

Singles
Cin -114
Fla -110
Oak -140

Chase
Cin -114
Fla -110
Oak -140
 
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Posted: #154
Hmm.. was pretty sure Florida opened @ even last night.. but oh well. I certainly will not be playing them this weekend, that is as good a fade series as any.. I guess u didn't find that any of the losses from last season were from Interleague play, so maybe it is safe.

BOL Toms.. this Interleague thing might get dicey 

Regardless, it will be an entertaining weekend!!
 
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Posted: #155
Fla opened as a dog...I had them +104 at one point this morning now they're -117...I'm going to play the Wsox anyway because I love the matchup...Also will add Reds even though they're a dog now.
 
BOL everyone!
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

Fla opened as a dog...I had them +104 at one point this morning now they're -117...I'm going to play the Wsox anyway because I love the matchup...Also will add Reds even though they're a dog now.
 
BOL everyone!


I had Florida open at -110
 
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Posted: #157
FLA opened as a FAVORITE at -115, according to covers MLB odds...
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

FLA opened as a FAVORITE at -115, according to covers MLB odds...

if we use covers MLB odds than it should be noted that if you look at yesterday's scoreboard it has the wsox -102 as a slight dog to the twins at -108 making the wsox a play tonight...thats why i took them...bol everyone!

 
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Posted: #159

(betting each game of series)
AL = 38-19 (66.67%) +14.42u
NL = 21-10 (67.74%) +8.70u
Total = 59-29 (67.05%) +22.92u

(Chase)
AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
NL = 10-0 (100.00%) +10.00u
Total = 28-0 (100.00%) +28.00u

Games For May 23rd, 2009

Singles
Cin -105
Fla +128
Oak +135

Chase
Fla +1.28 (1.64u)
Oak +135 (1.78u)
 
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Posted: #160
It has been a stressful weekend so far.. a very draining Saturday night with the Oakland tough beat.

I thought Sunday was going to be extremely nerve-wracking.. but I find myself quite calm as the sun rises here on the East coast.

Last Sunday Halladay and the Jays really saved me, I feel very confident in Outman and the A's getting the job done in the finale.

And although I did not play the Florida series this weekend, Good Luck for those who are hoping for a big win there as well !!

Enjoy the games and hopefully a Payday Sunday!!

   
 
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Posted: #161
Maybe you guys are right about the interleague thing lol

(betting each game of series)
AL = 38-20 (65.52%) +13.68u
NL = 21-12 (63.64%) +6.87u
Total = 59-32 (64.84%) +20.55u

(Chase)
AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
NL = 10-0 (100.00%) +10.00u
Total = 28-0 (100.00%) +28.00u

Games For May 24th, 2009

Singles
Cin +116
Fla +112
Oak -136

Chase
Fla +112 (3.34u)
Oak -136 (5.68u)
 
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Posted: #162
So I owe a huge apology to everybody about not looking up the interleague stats before it started. I've just been busy.
But I woke up a bit earlier today and had the time to check 2008 stats.
Best advice I can give you: Lay off interleague play.

Here's the interleague stats for 2008
(betting each game of series)
AL = 9-6 (60.00%) -0.14u
NL = 9-18 (33.33%) -9.34u
Total = 18-24 (42.86%) -9.48u

(Chase)
AL = 5-0 (100.00%) +5.00u
NL = 5-5 (50.00%) -34.94u
Total = 10-5 (66.67%) -29.94u



So yeah that's terrible. Here's the overall 2008 stats if you didn't play interleague

(betting each game of series)
AL = 114-66 (63.33%) +28.52u
NL = 111-69 (57.97%) +29.58u
Total = 225-135 (62.50%) +58.10u

(Chase)
AL = 53-2 (96.36%) +33.81u
NL = 53-2 (96.36%) +19.58u
Total = 106-4 (96.36%) +53.39u



I'll check 2007 later, hoping to see all 3 chase losses in interleague play :P
 
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Posted: #163
Thanks for looking this up Tom, it's about what I was hoping to find. I will also be hoping to see the 3 chase losses from 2007 resulted from Interleague.

On a positive side, great job today by both Florida and Oakland to pull out victories and keep the chase record perfect on the season!!

Here's to another successful week ahead!  
 
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Posted: #164
Tomspeople - Here is what I found from the 2007 Interleague series'. I'm sure you will double check these numbers.

The opening weekend was very successful, but after that it was quite downhill. However, the chase only lost once, on the final weekend for the NL.
1st Weekend Set:  Detroit 3-0, Philadelphia 2-1
2nd Set: Chicago White Sox 1-2, LA Dodgers 1-2
3rd Set: Houston 1-2
4th Set: Cincinnati 1-2
5th Set: Seattle 2-1, NY Mets 1-2
6th Set: Atlanta 0-3

(betting each game of series)
AL = 6-3   (66.67%)  did not calculate units
NL = 6-12 (33.33%)
Total = 12-15 (44.44%)

(chase)
AL = 3-0  (100%)
NL = 5-1  (83.33%)
Total = 8-1 (88.89%)


To me this says to either avoid Interleague play or   Fade NL teams.

 
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Posted: #165
If you Faded the NL teams in games which qualified for the system from 2007-current, you would be in great shape.

(betting each game of series)
2007
AL = 18-9  (66.67%)

2008
AL = 27-15 (64.29%)

2009
AL = 4-5  (44.44%)


TOTAL = 49-29  (62.82%)

I did not check each series from 2008, but with the NL only winning 9 games I would guess the NL did not sweep any series? Tom did you notice if there were any NL sweeps when you did your research?
If not, then the chase would be a perfect 18-0 as well during Interleague play in the past 3 years, if you Fade the NL teams.

This makes my decision on how to handle the rest of the season quite easy:

During InterLeague play, Fade NL teams which qualify as a system play


What do you think?
 
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Posted: #166
kreat, there was one sweep in 2008 for NL
 
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Posted: #167
tomspeople good 3 teamer 5-24-09fla cin oak 3tp for 200 to win 1194 so it took 2 days 1194 - 400 = 794 profit i like the you post the plays you give the date and then the plays easy!!!!!!!!!  here is some plays from totals chase that also works    GAMES  FOR   MAY 25      ^ stlcards  ^ pitts ^ det  under tbay  pesonal plays toronto,   cubs ,  mets,  hou  GOODLUCK
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

kreat, there was one sweep in 2008 for NL


Thanks man, even with the one sweep I think it's still probably worth leaning towards fading the NL?

Looks like it is gonna be a busy Monday, I see 4 series which are plays..?  NYM, ARI, MIL, BAL


May the Winners be ours!!!! 
 
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Posted: #169
I agree NYM, ARI, MIL, BAL are all plays...lets get em!!
 
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Posted: #170
Well atleast interleague is done for a while lol :)

(betting each game of series)
AL = 39-20 (65.52%) +14.68u
NL = 23-12 (63.64%) +8.87u
Total = 62-32 (64.84%) +23.55u

(Chase)
AL = 19-0 (100.00%) +19.00u
NL = 11-0 (100.00%) +11.00u
Total = 30-0 (100.00%) +30.00u

Games For May 25th, 2009

Singles
Bal -106
Mil -120
Ari -137
NYM -158

Chase
Bal -106
Mil -120
Ari -137
NYM -158
 
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Posted: #171
Your 'spot' plays are well calculated, with positive insight attached to your research, and stats..65% speaks for itself...good work T....
 
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Posted: #172
72% Spot plays and 91% Progressions right now.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=roUH5qtITP0dCVn8cehAyTg&gid=0
 
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Posted: #173
Nice day Tom...Memorial Day 75% very good. BOL 
 
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Posted: #174
3-1 is a good day :)

(betting each game of series)
AL = 40-20 (66.67%) +15.68u
NL = 25-13 (65.79%) +9.50u
Total = 65-33 (66.33%) +25.18u

(Chase)
AL = 20-0 (100.00%) +20.00u
NL = 13-0 (100.00%) +13.00u
Total = 33-0 (100.00%) +33.00u

Games For May 26th, 2009

Singles
Bal +104
Mil -101
Ari -155
NYM -145

Chase
Ari -155 (3.67u)
 
 
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Posted: #175
geez, betting against san diego is so hard to do!
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