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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    HFOUDL System 2009

    «First Previous 789 ... 202122 Next Last»
    diamonddicer
    kreatture
    Tomspeople
    GreenMachine22
    agv
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 52705
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    «First Previous 789 ... 202122 Next Last»
     
    diamonddicer
    diamonddicer
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 9:58 AM ET #151

    So far I have White Sox and A's as new chases starting today...what's your take on the Reds, the line opened -104, -104, but now my line has Reds as slight dog at -102....would you lay off?
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    So far I have White Sox and A's as new chases starting today...what's your take on the Reds, the line opened -104, -104, but now my line has Reds as slight dog at -102....would you lay off?
     
    kreatture
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 10:51 AM ET #152

    Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

    So far I have White Sox and A's as new chases starting today...what's your take on the Reds, the line opened -104, -104, but now my line has Reds as slight dog at -102....would you lay off?


    Cincy opened as a fav @ -125 most places, your book must have opened the line late?
    They would be a play 2nite, but I've decided not 2 play them this weekend. Either team is capable of sweeping imo.

    BOL if u play
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    Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

    So far I have White Sox and A's as new chases starting today...what's your take on the Reds, the line opened -104, -104, but now my line has Reds as slight dog at -102....would you lay off?


    Cincy opened as a fav @ -125 most places, your book must have opened the line late?
    They would be a play 2nite, but I've decided not 2 play them this weekend. Either team is capable of sweeping imo.

    BOL if u play
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 11:15 AM ET #153

    I wouldn't bet CWS, they were not a dog until it closed.

    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 38-18 (67.86%) +15.82u
    NL = 20-9 (68.97%) +8.60u
    Total = 58-27 (68.24%) +24.42u


    (Chase)

    AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
    NL = 9-0 (100.00%) +9.00u
    Total = 27-0 (100.00%) +27.00u

    Games For May 22nd, 2009

    Singles
    Cin -114
    Fla -110
    Oak -140

    Chase
    Cin -114
    Fla -110
    Oak -140
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    I wouldn't bet CWS, they were not a dog until it closed.

    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 38-18 (67.86%) +15.82u
    NL = 20-9 (68.97%) +8.60u
    Total = 58-27 (68.24%) +24.42u


    (Chase)

    AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
    NL = 9-0 (100.00%) +9.00u
    Total = 27-0 (100.00%) +27.00u

    Games For May 22nd, 2009

    Singles
    Cin -114
    Fla -110
    Oak -140

    Chase
    Cin -114
    Fla -110
    Oak -140
     
    kreatture
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 11:29 AM ET #154

    Hmm.. was pretty sure Florida opened @ even last night.. but oh well. I certainly will not be playing them this weekend, that is as good a fade series as any.. I guess u didn't find that any of the losses from last season were from Interleague play, so maybe it is safe.

    BOL Toms.. this Interleague thing might get dicey 

    Regardless, it will be an entertaining weekend!!
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    Hmm.. was pretty sure Florida opened @ even last night.. but oh well. I certainly will not be playing them this weekend, that is as good a fade series as any.. I guess u didn't find that any of the losses from last season were from Interleague play, so maybe it is safe.

    BOL Toms.. this Interleague thing might get dicey 

    Regardless, it will be an entertaining weekend!!
     
    diamonddicer
    diamonddicer
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 12:44 PM ET #155

    Fla opened as a dog...I had them +104 at one point this morning now they're -117...I'm going to play the Wsox anyway because I love the matchup...Also will add Reds even though they're a dog now.
     
    BOL everyone!
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    Fla opened as a dog...I had them +104 at one point this morning now they're -117...I'm going to play the Wsox anyway because I love the matchup...Also will add Reds even though they're a dog now.
     
    BOL everyone!
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 12:58 PM ET #156

    Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

    Fla opened as a dog...I had them +104 at one point this morning now they're -117...I'm going to play the Wsox anyway because I love the matchup...Also will add Reds even though they're a dog now.
     
    BOL everyone!


    I had Florida open at -110
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    Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

    Fla opened as a dog...I had them +104 at one point this morning now they're -117...I'm going to play the Wsox anyway because I love the matchup...Also will add Reds even though they're a dog now.
     
    BOL everyone!


    I had Florida open at -110
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 1:04 PM ET #157

    FLA opened as a FAVORITE at -115, according to covers MLB odds...
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    FLA opened as a FAVORITE at -115, according to covers MLB odds...
     
    diamonddicer
    diamonddicer
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 4:52 PM ET #158

    Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

    FLA opened as a FAVORITE at -115, according to covers MLB odds...

    if we use covers MLB odds than it should be noted that if you look at yesterday's scoreboard it has the wsox -102 as a slight dog to the twins at -108 making the wsox a play tonight...thats why i took them...bol everyone!

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    Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

    FLA opened as a FAVORITE at -115, according to covers MLB odds...

    if we use covers MLB odds than it should be noted that if you look at yesterday's scoreboard it has the wsox -102 as a slight dog to the twins at -108 making the wsox a play tonight...thats why i took them...bol everyone!

     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 23, 2009 - 2:29 PM ET #159


    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 38-19 (66.67%) +14.42u
    NL = 21-10 (67.74%) +8.70u
    Total = 59-29 (67.05%) +22.92u


    (Chase)

    AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
    NL = 10-0 (100.00%) +10.00u
    Total = 28-0 (100.00%) +28.00u

    Games For May 23rd, 2009

    Singles
    Cin -105
    Fla +128
    Oak +135

    Chase
    Fla +1.28 (1.64u)
    Oak +135 (1.78u)
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    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 38-19 (66.67%) +14.42u
    NL = 21-10 (67.74%) +8.70u
    Total = 59-29 (67.05%) +22.92u


    (Chase)

    AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
    NL = 10-0 (100.00%) +10.00u
    Total = 28-0 (100.00%) +28.00u

    Games For May 23rd, 2009

    Singles
    Cin -105
    Fla +128
    Oak +135

    Chase
    Fla +1.28 (1.64u)
    Oak +135 (1.78u)
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 24, 2009 - 4:58 AM ET #160

    It has been a stressful weekend so far.. a very draining Saturday night with the Oakland tough beat.

    I thought Sunday was going to be extremely nerve-wracking.. but I find myself quite calm as the sun rises here on the East coast.

    Last Sunday Halladay and the Jays really saved me, I feel very confident in Outman and the A's getting the job done in the finale.

    And although I did not play the Florida series this weekend, Good Luck for those who are hoping for a big win there as well !!

    Enjoy the games and hopefully a Payday Sunday!!

       
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    It has been a stressful weekend so far.. a very draining Saturday night with the Oakland tough beat.

    I thought Sunday was going to be extremely nerve-wracking.. but I find myself quite calm as the sun rises here on the East coast.

    Last Sunday Halladay and the Jays really saved me, I feel very confident in Outman and the A's getting the job done in the finale.

    And although I did not play the Florida series this weekend, Good Luck for those who are hoping for a big win there as well !!

    Enjoy the games and hopefully a Payday Sunday!!

       
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 24, 2009 - 9:51 AM ET #161

    Maybe you guys are right about the interleague thing lol

    (betting each game of series)

    AL = 38-20 (65.52%) +13.68u
    NL = 21-12 (63.64%) +6.87u
    Total = 59-32 (64.84%) +20.55u


    (Chase)

    AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
    NL = 10-0 (100.00%) +10.00u
    Total = 28-0 (100.00%) +28.00u

    Games For May 24th, 2009

    Singles
    Cin +116
    Fla +112
    Oak -136

    Chase
    Fla +112 (3.34u)
    Oak -136 (5.68u)
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    Maybe you guys are right about the interleague thing lol

    (betting each game of series)

    AL = 38-20 (65.52%) +13.68u
    NL = 21-12 (63.64%) +6.87u
    Total = 59-32 (64.84%) +20.55u


    (Chase)

    AL = 18-0 (100.00%) +18.00u
    NL = 10-0 (100.00%) +10.00u
    Total = 28-0 (100.00%) +28.00u

    Games For May 24th, 2009

    Singles
    Cin +116
    Fla +112
    Oak -136

    Chase
    Fla +112 (3.34u)
    Oak -136 (5.68u)
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 24, 2009 - 11:24 AM ET #162

    So I owe a huge apology to everybody about not looking up the interleague stats before it started. I've just been busy.
    But I woke up a bit earlier today and had the time to check 2008 stats.
    Best advice I can give you: Lay off interleague play.

    Here's the interleague stats for 2008
    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 9-6 (60.00%) -0.14u
    NL = 9-18 (33.33%) -9.34u
    Total = 18
    -24 (42.86%) -9.48u

    (Chase)
    AL = 5-0 (100.00%) +5.00u
    NL = 5-5 (50.00%) -34.94u
    Total = 10-5 (66.67%) -29.94u




    So yeah that's terrible. Here's the overall 2008 stats if you didn't play interleague

    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 114-66 (63.33%) +28.52u
    NL = 111-69 (57.97%) +29.58u
    Total = 225
    -135 (62.50%) +58.10u

    (Chase)
    AL = 53-2 (96.36%) +33.81u
    NL = 53-2 (96.36%) +19.58u
    Total = 106-4 (96.36%) +53.39u




    I'll check 2007 later, hoping to see all 3 chase losses in interleague play :P
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    So I owe a huge apology to everybody about not looking up the interleague stats before it started. I've just been busy.
    But I woke up a bit earlier today and had the time to check 2008 stats.
    Best advice I can give you: Lay off interleague play.

    Here's the interleague stats for 2008
    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 9-6 (60.00%) -0.14u
    NL = 9-18 (33.33%) -9.34u
    Total = 18
    -24 (42.86%) -9.48u

    (Chase)
    AL = 5-0 (100.00%) +5.00u
    NL = 5-5 (50.00%) -34.94u
    Total = 10-5 (66.67%) -29.94u




    So yeah that's terrible. Here's the overall 2008 stats if you didn't play interleague

    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 114-66 (63.33%) +28.52u
    NL = 111-69 (57.97%) +29.58u
    Total = 225
    -135 (62.50%) +58.10u

    (Chase)
    AL = 53-2 (96.36%) +33.81u
    NL = 53-2 (96.36%) +19.58u
    Total = 106-4 (96.36%) +53.39u




    I'll check 2007 later, hoping to see all 3 chase losses in interleague play :P
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 24, 2009 - 9:22 PM ET #163

    Thanks for looking this up Tom, it's about what I was hoping to find. I will also be hoping to see the 3 chase losses from 2007 resulted from Interleague.

    On a positive side, great job today by both Florida and Oakland to pull out victories and keep the chase record perfect on the season!!

    Here's to another successful week ahead!  
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    Thanks for looking this up Tom, it's about what I was hoping to find. I will also be hoping to see the 3 chase losses from 2007 resulted from Interleague.

    On a positive side, great job today by both Florida and Oakland to pull out victories and keep the chase record perfect on the season!!

    Here's to another successful week ahead!  
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 24, 2009 - 10:35 PM ET #164

    Tomspeople - Here is what I found from the 2007 Interleague series'. I'm sure you will double check these numbers.

    The opening weekend was very successful, but after that it was quite downhill. However, the chase only lost once, on the final weekend for the NL.
    1st Weekend Set:  Detroit 3-0, Philadelphia 2-1
    2nd Set: Chicago White Sox 1-2, LA Dodgers 1-2
    3rd Set: Houston 1-2
    4th Set: Cincinnati 1-2
    5th Set: Seattle 2-1, NY Mets 1-2
    6th Set: Atlanta 0-3

    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 6-3   (66.67%)  did not calculate units
    NL = 6-12 (33.33%)
    Total = 12-15 (44.44%)

    (chase)
    AL = 3-0  (100%)
    NL = 5-1  (83.33%)
    Total = 8-1 (88.89%)


    To me this says to either avoid Interleague play or   Fade NL teams.

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    Tomspeople - Here is what I found from the 2007 Interleague series'. I'm sure you will double check these numbers.

    The opening weekend was very successful, but after that it was quite downhill. However, the chase only lost once, on the final weekend for the NL.
    1st Weekend Set:  Detroit 3-0, Philadelphia 2-1
    2nd Set: Chicago White Sox 1-2, LA Dodgers 1-2
    3rd Set: Houston 1-2
    4th Set: Cincinnati 1-2
    5th Set: Seattle 2-1, NY Mets 1-2
    6th Set: Atlanta 0-3

    (betting each game of series)
    AL = 6-3   (66.67%)  did not calculate units
    NL = 6-12 (33.33%)
    Total = 12-15 (44.44%)

    (chase)
    AL = 3-0  (100%)
    NL = 5-1  (83.33%)
    Total = 8-1 (88.89%)


    To me this says to either avoid Interleague play or   Fade NL teams.

     
    kreatture
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 24, 2009 - 11:04 PM ET #165

    If you Faded the NL teams in games which qualified for the system from 2007-current, you would be in great shape.

    (betting each game of series)
    2007
    AL = 18-9  (66.67%)

    2008
    AL = 27-15 (64.29%)

    2009
    AL = 4-5  (44.44%)


    TOTAL = 49-29  (62.82%)

    I did not check each series from 2008, but with the NL only winning 9 games I would guess the NL did not sweep any series? Tom did you notice if there were any NL sweeps when you did your research?
    If not, then the chase would be a perfect 18-0 as well during Interleague play in the past 3 years, if you Fade the NL teams.

    This makes my decision on how to handle the rest of the season quite easy:

    During InterLeague play, Fade NL teams which qualify as a system play


    What do you think?
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    If you Faded the NL teams in games which qualified for the system from 2007-current, you would be in great shape.

    (betting each game of series)
    2007
    AL = 18-9  (66.67%)

    2008
    AL = 27-15 (64.29%)

    2009
    AL = 4-5  (44.44%)


    TOTAL = 49-29  (62.82%)

    I did not check each series from 2008, but with the NL only winning 9 games I would guess the NL did not sweep any series? Tom did you notice if there were any NL sweeps when you did your research?
    If not, then the chase would be a perfect 18-0 as well during Interleague play in the past 3 years, if you Fade the NL teams.

    This makes my decision on how to handle the rest of the season quite easy:

    During InterLeague play, Fade NL teams which qualify as a system play


    What do you think?
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 25, 2009 - 12:37 AM ET #166

    kreat, there was one sweep in 2008 for NL
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    kreat, there was one sweep in 2008 for NL
     
    agv
    agv
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    Posted: May. 25, 2009 - 3:27 AM ET #167

    tomspeople good 3 teamer 5-24-09fla cin oak 3tp for 200 to win 1194 so it took 2 days 1194 - 400 = 794 profit i like the you post the plays you give the date and then the plays easy!!!!!!!!!  here is some plays from totals chase that also works    GAMES  FOR   MAY 25      ^ stlcards  ^ pitts ^ det  under tbay  pesonal plays toronto,   cubs ,  mets,  hou  GOODLUCK
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    tomspeople good 3 teamer 5-24-09fla cin oak 3tp for 200 to win 1194 so it took 2 days 1194 - 400 = 794 profit i like the you post the plays you give the date and then the plays easy!!!!!!!!!  here is some plays from totals chase that also works    GAMES  FOR   MAY 25      ^ stlcards  ^ pitts ^ det  under tbay  pesonal plays toronto,   cubs ,  mets,  hou  GOODLUCK
     
    kreatture
    kreatture
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    Posted: May. 25, 2009 - 4:28 AM ET #168

    Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

    kreat, there was one sweep in 2008 for NL


    Thanks man, even with the one sweep I think it's still probably worth leaning towards fading the NL?

    Looks like it is gonna be a busy Monday, I see 4 series which are plays..?  NYM, ARI, MIL, BAL


    May the Winners be ours!!!! 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

    kreat, there was one sweep in 2008 for NL


    Thanks man, even with the one sweep I think it's still probably worth leaning towards fading the NL?

    Looks like it is gonna be a busy Monday, I see 4 series which are plays..?  NYM, ARI, MIL, BAL


    May the Winners be ours!!!! 
     
    diamonddicer
    diamonddicer
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    Posted: May. 25, 2009 - 11:47 AM ET #169

    I agree NYM, ARI, MIL, BAL are all plays...lets get em!!
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    I agree NYM, ARI, MIL, BAL are all plays...lets get em!!
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 25, 2009 - 1:25 PM ET #170

    Well atleast interleague is done for a while lol :)

    (betting each game of series)

    AL = 39-20 (65.52%) +14.68u
    NL = 23-12 (63.64%) +8.87u
    Total = 62-32 (64.84%) +23.55u


    (Chase)

    AL = 19-0 (100.00%) +19.00u
    NL = 11-0 (100.00%) +11.00u
    Total = 30-0 (100.00%) +30.00u

    Games For May 25th, 2009

    Singles
    Bal -106
    Mil -120
    Ari -137
    NYM -158

    Chase
    Bal -106
    Mil -120
    Ari -137
    NYM -158
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    Well atleast interleague is done for a while lol :)

    (betting each game of series)

    AL = 39-20 (65.52%) +14.68u
    NL = 23-12 (63.64%) +8.87u
    Total = 62-32 (64.84%) +23.55u


    (Chase)

    AL = 19-0 (100.00%) +19.00u
    NL = 11-0 (100.00%) +11.00u
    Total = 30-0 (100.00%) +30.00u

    Games For May 25th, 2009

    Singles
    Bal -106
    Mil -120
    Ari -137
    NYM -158

    Chase
    Bal -106
    Mil -120
    Ari -137
    NYM -158
     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
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    Posted: May. 26, 2009 - 3:30 AM ET #171

    Your 'spot' plays are well calculated, with positive insight attached to your research, and stats..65% speaks for itself...good work T....
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    Your 'spot' plays are well calculated, with positive insight attached to your research, and stats..65% speaks for itself...good work T....
     
    Martin55
    Martin55
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    Posts: 155
    Posted: May. 26, 2009 - 5:25 AM ET #172

    72% Spot plays and 91% Progressions right now.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=roUH5qtITP0dCVn8cehAyTg&gid=0
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    72% Spot plays and 91% Progressions right now.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=roUH5qtITP0dCVn8cehAyTg&gid=0
     
    JimmyJet
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    Posted: May. 26, 2009 - 8:15 AM ET #173

    Nice day Tom...Memorial Day 75% very good. BOL 
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    Nice day Tom...Memorial Day 75% very good. BOL 
     
    Tomspeople
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: May. 26, 2009 - 11:01 AM ET #174

    3-1 is a good day :)

    (betting each game of series)

    AL = 40-20 (66.67%) +15.68u
    NL = 25-13 (65.79%) +9.50u
    Total = 65-33 (66.33%) +25.18u


    (Chase)

    AL = 20-0 (100.00%) +20.00u
    NL = 13-0 (100.00%) +13.00u
    Total = 33-0 (100.00%) +33.00u

    Games For May 26th, 2009

    Singles
    Bal +104
    Mil -101
    Ari -155
    NYM -145

    Chase
    Ari -155 (3.67u)
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    3-1 is a good day :)

    (betting each game of series)

    AL = 40-20 (66.67%) +15.68u
    NL = 25-13 (65.79%) +9.50u
    Total = 65-33 (66.33%) +25.18u


    (Chase)

    AL = 20-0 (100.00%) +20.00u
    NL = 13-0 (100.00%) +13.00u
    Total = 33-0 (100.00%) +33.00u

    Games For May 26th, 2009

    Singles
    Bal +104
    Mil -101
    Ari -155
    NYM -145

    Chase
    Ari -155 (3.67u)
     
     
    hoop121
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    Posts: 200
    Posted: May. 26, 2009 - 6:32 PM ET #175

    geez, betting against san diego is so hard to do!
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    geez, betting against san diego is so hard to do!
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