Don't chase system for MLB

Summary since we started:

All playable matched pairs are 177-34 win% = 84% which is just about the average for last year.

Our matched pairs are 72-10 for a win% = almost 88% so we're still hitting above the average.

One last thing for tonite. I've noticed that a lot of chase systems are getting hammered lately in baseball. This is why I don't do chases based on a specific team. STL killed those systems this week. They got swept as big favorites in every game.

i only played the last two game of the st louis series and still took a nice hit... there has been way to many sweeps this year in mlb so now im with you kirby on this sysstem lets do this

First play to clear the 20-25 line:

BOS  RL +125  50/62.50   DET  +120  50/60

The rest:

NYM  +120  20/24  FLA RL +150  20/30

CHW RL +120  20/24  KC  +125  20/25

HOU +130  20/26   SF RL +150  20/30

MIN +155  20/31   NYY RL +110  20/22

BOS clears the leftover line for us.  Bank = 2316.25

Kirby... i don't follow how Boston cleared that line  cos although you won $62.50 with boston ..you lost $50 with Detroit... therefore only profitting $12.50 ..not the $45 required to clear the line...what am I missing ?..

You're right neilsy, the way I'm using the line, clearing it doesn't mean that it recoups the money lost on the previous bet. I'm just using it as a way of keeping track of what I should be betting on any given day. I'm looking at the whole line as a series of bets and the profitablility of clearing the line comes from winning a very large percentage of the bets over the life of the line. This line that BOS just cleared for me, for example, started on 5/12. To clear this line required 11 games in which i went 9-2. This was a pretty poor performing series but over the life of the line I made 15.50 or .7% on the Bank in 2 days. The previous line was also a 2-day event and it took 9 games to clear at 8-1. Profit from that series was 93.00 or 4.2% on the Bank in 2 days. So you can see the variance of these series of games that I bet. I envision one of these particularly nasty series to clear the line with a loss, but that's the trade off for not having to put out 10x the normal bet amount just to recoup the previous loser. It's a grind, but I think at a greatly reduced risk. The chances of hitting two losing games back-to-back are small at a little over 3% but if you do happen to get hit you're finished. Hitting two losers back-to-back here, while damaging, doesn't put us out of the ball game.

thanks for the explanation .. i see now..i agree with you.. losing 2 games back to back although only 3% ,,will inevitably happen ... good luck !

Swept the board tonite. Line looks like this:

10-10-10-10   Bank = 2343.25

One early game tomorrow already:

TEX +125  20/25  TOR RL +140  20/28

Rest of today:

NYM +115  20/23   FLA RL +160  20/32

WAS +140  20/28   COL RL +130  20/26

CLE +130  20/26  BAL RL +145  20/29

OAK +130  20/26   LAA RL +145  20/29

One more:

PHI RL +140  20/28  MIL +105 20/21

So you play all games that fit the parameters on any given day? Regardless of how many games your labby line tells you to play?

That is mostly correct. There have been days that I've limited the amount of plays to what the Labby line dictates, but this is evolving a little and the strength of this is in numbers of plays. We can only clear a line on a zero loss day however.

You can always count on the BAL bullpen to give up a few.

4-1 on the pairs tonite. We had a no action on the pitching change in the OAK/LAA game. Lost $6.  Bank = 2337.25  Line is:

20-20   Will need one game to clear it tomorrow and the rest will go on a new line.

FIrst game:

MIN +125  40/50    NYY +145  40/58

four more for the new line:

CHW RL +150  20/30   KC RL +170  20/34   Both RL's

OAK +140  20/28   LAA RL +130  20/26

BOS RL + 130  20/26   DET +115  20/23

HOU +155  20/31  SF RL +130  20/26

MIN clears for us and we go 3-1 on the new line. Line goes to:

20-10-10-10-10-10-10-20   BANK=2330.25

Sure would be nice to win 4 in a row tomorrow.

5 plays today:

PIT +190  40/76   PHI RL +100   50/50

AZ +135  40/54  FLA RL +140  40/56

MIN RL +145  40/58  TOR +105  40/42

KC +115  40/46  BAL RL (+155) parlayed to over 9 (-120)  20/73.50

CHW +130  40/52  DET RL +145  40/58

4-0  today.  Finally, a sweep. Line resets to:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

BANK = 2378.25 

early games:

MIL +120  40/48   CIN RL +150  40/60

CLE +230  20/46  TB RL-120  40/33

Cut the bets for MIL/CIN in half should be 20 for both. 20/24  20/30

one more early game:

CHW +125  20/25  DET RL +150  20/30