Don't chase system for MLB

Being a long time Padre fan, It's sad to watch Trevor Hoffman just get bombed every time he comes in now. Came in for the save, threw fourteen pitches, walked one, gave up four hits including a bomb, game over. Should retire while he still has a little dignity left.

Oh well, on to tonite's games. Line looks like this after this morning:

20-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-20

HOU +170  20/34     LAD RL +120  20/24

BOS +170  20/34  NYY RL (+105) parlayed to over 9 (-105)  15/45

Probably going to hate myself for that last play.

Sorry, bets should be double the stated amounts:

HOU  40/68    LAD RL 40/48

BOS  40/68    NYY RL parlay  30/90

kkirby - thanks for all your hard work on this. Any advice for those of us with a book that doesn't offer the parlay (other than to get a new book)? I've been doing the alternate -2 and 1/2 RL, but the risk/reward isn't really the same. 

Unfortunately I can't think of any other way to synthesize the parlay. I would think that some books take this bet. Mine is in Mexico that takes it. If anyone knows of others speak up.

4-1 on the pairs today. Bank = 2402.25  There's our 20% and we did it in less than a month.  I think we can see that the Lab line is not really being followed as such. What I have noticed is that we continue to hit about 88% on our games so let's approach the system a little differently. There appears to be about 4-5 games a day that turn out to be plays so I would like to change the format. Let's start using a 10-game win block as the marker to reset our bets. We can start by betting $10 a side ($20 total per game) on the first games of our series. If we suffer a loss on a game before we hit 10 wins we increase our bets to $20 per side ($40 total per game). Should we get a second loss before we reach 10 wins we increase the bet again to $60/side ($120/game). At this point based on the history, we should get our 10th win and we can reset our bets back down and start a new series. In 23 days of doing this so far we have had 2 losers in only 2 of those days. We will get 10 wins in about 2 1/2 days. One thing that is important however is that we can not start a new series after a day where we had a loss. We must end series on a sweep day. There have been 12 sweep days out of the 23, a little over half. Let's see if this simplifies things. If we get a 2-loss day in the middle of the series, we'll just have to figure out what to do with that when it happens. I am inclined to increase the level of bets with each loss whether they happen on the same day or not. We'll see. We start tomorrow at the beginning of a new 10-game series.

5 games for today:

CIN  +115  10/11.50   ATL RL +170  10/17

KC  +125  10/12.5  CLE RL +145  10/14.5

LAA +140  10/14  CHW RL +135  10/13.5

SF +150  10/15  AZ RL +125  10/12.5

MIL RL +115  10/11.50   PIT +135  10/13.50

Hey kkirby, have you given any thought to maximizing your profit by increasing your lines as your roll increases..  i.e once your roll increased 10% ..making your line  11  11  11 11 11  ....etc... and then at the next 10% making it 12 12 12 12 .... .etc..

Yes, it'll get there. I wasn't going to increase it until the first 25% was in the bag. Close but not quite there yet. Another week or so I think.

4-1 today.  6 more wins to close out the series. Lost 7.50 Bank= 2394.75   Tomorrow's bets will be at level 2 amounts $20/side, $40/game.

First game today, not an ideal situation because of the odds:

FLA +205  15/30.75   STL RL -110  25/22

Back later.

Early game winner. 5 wins to go to end the series:

MIL RL +140  20/28  PIT +110   20/22

BAL +130  20/26  TEX RL +140 20/28

NYM +110  20/22   WAS RL +170  20/34  potential danger game. Leave this off if you want to. I'm playing it.

LAA +130  20/26  CHW RL +155  20/31

Also as a little kicker I played an extra 10 on BAL and 10 on TEX parlayed to the over 9.5. I won't use this in the results to keep the integrity of the system.

4-1 today but lost another $17  Bank = 2377.45 Need 2 more wins to close out the series of 10. Tomorrow's bets are $60/side $120/game. In this series we are 8-2 which, is the % holds means that we'll have out two winners tomorrow and can start over again. this hasn't been a particularly good series, but let's see how we finish.

These games just jumped out at me today:

BOS +130  60/78   PHI RL +140  60/84

MIL +150  60/90   MIN RL +115  60/69

TOR  +130  60/78    AZ RL +140  60/84

 We need the sweep to close out this series. This would give us an 11-win series. If we have a failure tonight, tomorrow's bet will be $180/side  $360/game. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

swept the board. Start a new series of 10 wins tomorrow. Bank=2434.25   Bets tomorrow are $10

love it kirb keep up the great work

Thanks, sm.

Today's games so far:

LAA +130  10/13  STL RL +145  10/14.5

BAL +135  10/13.5   WAS RL +140  10/14

TOR +130  10/13   AZ RL  +150  10/15

Wanted to mention one thing. Wherever in a series of 10 wins we get a sweep day, all bets go back to 10 for the next day. Didn't know if I was clear on this. We are all about preservation of capital here. No need to gamble too much. 

Adding:

MIL  +120  10/12  MIN RL +145  10/14.50

BOL today Kirb

Well, I have to say I'm a little shaken after yesterday. Watching 3 and 4-run leads turn into losers was tough. So I guess we're at another defining moment to see if this is going to work or not. Bets must go to $60/side or $120/game.

CIN RL +120  60/72  CLE +125  60/75

BAL  EVEN  70/70  WAS RL +180  50/90

DET +150  60/90   LAD RL +130  60/78

Just started tracking today. Probably start tailing next weekend. Haven't a clue what "Lab line" means, but I like what I see from the system. Tough run today with the Bal/Was matchup, but still a cool way to run a system.

BAL/WAS matchup yesterday. WAS closer comes in with 16 straight saves, 2 -run lead.....  blown save. That's the kind of luck we've had here lately. This is also why our initial bets in the series are tiny compared to our bankroll.

I hear ya brother. Christ -- I hope my taking notice wasn't the cooler?!? Look forward to your card later today.

No plays today. I want a full card available for the next big bets we're going to play. $180/side  $360/game.