Don't chase system for MLB

Jake, In the three books I use there were different lines for at least two games DET/CLE and CHW/TOR where the favorites were different and the RL's were different. I just used the best lines I could get for the games I wanted to play. I didn't notice any difference in the COL/LAD game. This is the first time I've seen discrepancies in the lines like this. I still see COL RL +125 and LAD +125

That COL/LAD line is at Caliente in Mexico.

ok thanks bro...the light now has come on..

All pairs were winners, we cleared out that nasty line and even made $10 to boot!  Bank = 2207.75

This is a good example of not hitting the % we should hit in a series and still come out with no damage. This little stretch the pairs were 10-3 for a win % of 77. Historically the % is 85. We had been on a streak of a higher win % so this just brings the overall % back in line.  Line resets to:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10 and tomorrow's bets are 20.

Let's recap what's happened since we started:

We're up 10% on our bank in 15 days.  We are 56-7 in our matched pairs running at a 89% win rate which is higher than the norm. It remains to be seen if we are going to revert to the mean or if we can continue to avoid some of the land mines.

All playable matched pairs from 4/25 to date are 141-28 or an 83% win rate so we are doing something right by having a better win %. Now if I can only figure out what it is. Any ideas?

I'm going to do something different today.

I can get a RL on both PHI and COL at different books so I'm going to take it. Coors Field produces a lot of runs.

PHI RL +150  20/30   COL RL +175  20/35

WAS +135  20/27  NYM RL +145  20/29

MIL +105  30/31.5     ATL RL parlayed to the over 8.5 +100  20/72

TOR  +165 20/33  BOS RL +105  20/21 

ATL RL is +130

3 winners and a loser so the line goes to:

20-10-10-10-10-10-10-20   Bets for tomorrow are 40.

Bank = 2226.75

6 plays today:

TOR +150  40/60   BOS RL +125  40/50

NYY RL +115  40/46   DET +130  40/52

SD  +140  40/56   SF RL +145  40/58

LAD  +145  40/58  AZ RL +125  40/50

CIN RL +125  40/50  PIT  +120  40/48

Again I'm able to get two RL on the same game on the two teams so I'm going to take it..  CLE RL +150  40/60  KC RL +175 40/70

my charts are extremely hott, check my thread, six straight high RTR wins in a row, no one else makes the plays i make, check my record.

We swept the board tonite (5-0) so line resets.

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

Bank = 2300.75

Oh, and jp, you stay in your sandbox and I'll stay in mine. 

This seems to be working out pretty damn well for you Kirby.  I noticed you started the thread with $10 units and now your at $20.  Are you going to continue to increase your unit size after clearing the lab lines a couple of times?  What would you say you are up unit wise right now?  Basically 15 units since 4/24?

Need to get this one in early, a little different

PIT RL +170 parlayed to the over +100  20/88   CIN +105  40/42

Deviated a little from the norm but both pitchers put runners on base so good chance if the RL covers it will go over. Early game, back with more.

Cin, units started @$10 but with a high percentage of winners I could afford to go up on the bets early. Now, when starting each line, I'm betting $20 per side (2 units) for each matched pair ($40 per game, 4units)  An exception is today's first game where I fudged a little on the CIN ML just because of the large payout of the PIT side. Up 15 units in 17 days is correct.

Other early games:

WAS +160  20/32  NYM RL +115  20/23

HOU +165   20/33  STL RL + 115  20/23

TOR RL +150  20/30  BOS RL +170  20/34  different books have different RL's. I love these when they're split especially in the AL.

Game #1   NYY  RL +110  20/22     DET +135  20/27    (Vazquez vs. Porcello)

Sorry, I meant to say up 30 units in 17 days. Each unit is $10. I got confused   

Tough loss on that TOR/BOS game.  Going to kick up the bet on next games because of that loss.

OAK +130  40/52   TEX RL +145  40/58

5-1 today on the pairs. Too bad BOS had to score 2 meaningless runs in the 9th.

Line has been reduced to:

10-10-10-10    

Small card tomorrow.  Bank = 2332.75

Early game:

SEA RL +130  20/26   BAL +120  20/24

3 more:

WAS +170  20/34   COL RL +105  25/26.25

HOU  +280 10/28  STL RL -160  25/15.60

OAK +180  20/36   TEX RL +105  25/26.25

The odd amounts that are being bet are to compensate for the very long odds for the underdogs.

Kirby..I have been trying to figure out what your system is here? I am confused...I am thinking that you are picking games and hoping that the Fav. doesn't win by 1 run correct?? And are you still using 4 Lab lines or are you down to 1 now?? I am sorry...I am just confused at exactly what your plays are and how many labby lines we are using, etc.??

bison, each play is a matched pair. As long as the favorite doesn't win by 1 run only, the pair is a winner. The favorite wins by 1 run about 15-17% of the time. To try and reduce the chances of that happening I'm picking and choosing games according to what I feel are parameters that are important. I started with 4 lines but since this method produces a lot of winners at a reduced payout, I've modified the money mgmt. a little. It's evolved into a kind of Lab/Martingale hybrid using only 1 line. I want to get higher bets out there as soon as I suffer a loss and by putting losing bets on both ends of the Lab line, you get more money in play for a high percentage win situation. We are still trying to clear the line and, providing we have no losers, 6 winners will do that. If we do have a loser in the first series of games after we start a new Lab line, we essentially double the bets for the next few games until the line clears then we reset everything and go again. We should expect winners at just about a 6-1 ratio to losers. When I was using multiple lines before I kept moving losers from one line to another to even out the bets and it dawned on me just to use one long Lab line to simplify things.

3-1 today with the potential for a bonus. The WAS/COL game was cut short to 8 innings. We won the ML w/WAS and it's possible that the RL bet may be a no action and refunded as they are usually required to go the full game unlike the ML bet. We'll see. For bank purposes I'm not going to count it so we lost $29.  The line was cleared except for today's loss so the line looks like:

20-25   Bank = 2303.75

I'm going to make a matched pair to take care of this remnant and then the rest of the card will be on a new line of:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10