Don't chase system for MLB

Let's open up all the lines again by shifting 2 20's from Line 4 to Lines 1 and 2, add a 5 to line 4, and split everything back to 5's.

Line 1-  5-5-5-5

Line 2-  5-5-5-5

Line 3-  5-5-5-5

Line 4   5-5-5-5

Let's do it all over again.  Bets tomorrow are back to $10. 

I just saw an error on line 1 Bank. Should be 514.00. Total bankroll = 2037.00.  We've made 1.85% in 3 days. Stay tuned. It's a grind.

Line 1-  SD  RL  +135  10/13.50

Line 2-  FLA +115  10/11.50

Target rich environment today.

Line 3-  PIT   +140  10/14  COL RL +130  10/13

Line 4-  MIL RL +120  10/12  AZ +130  10/13

Line 1-  KC +105 10/10.50

Line 2- SEA RL +140 10/14

Adding some late games:

Line 2-  LAA RL +125 15/18.75  OAK +140  15/21

Line 4-  TB  RL +135  15/20.25  CLE +155 15/23.25

Line 1-    5-5-10                                Bank 521.00

Line 2-   5-5-5-5-10-10-15-15              Bank 475.50

Line 3-   5-5-10                                 Bank 518.00

Line 4-   5-15                                    Bank 491.75

                                     Total                  2006.25 

4/29:

Line 1- OAK +140  20/28

Line 2- DET +120  20/24  TOR RL +145 20/26  TEX RL +160 20/32

Line 3- CHW +120  20/24

Line 4- MIN RL +130  20/26

kirby how are you selecting the games, any particular method?  best dog prices on both sides?

I'm trying to stay with the higher total games, although after going back through the stats, it doesn't seem to matter. So now I'm trying to keep the payouts at +120 or better. I'm not really trying to handicap the games as such. My intent is to demonstrate that lab lines can prevent you from blowing up and make you a consistent return even when there is no handicapping going on.

Adding:

Line 1-  MIL +120  20/24

Line 2-  SD RL +170 20/34  HOU RL  +125  20/25

Line 4-  CIN +155   20/31

Line 1-    5-5-10-20-20                  Bank= 477.50

Line 2-   5-10-10-15                      Bank= 522.50

Line 3-   x-x-x-x                           Bank= 542.00

Line 4-    10-10 (split from 20)       Bank= 502.75

                       Total Bank                     2044.75

got it, thanks and good luck i will be follow here and there.

Based on the math and further digging in the stats, I've come to the conclusion that this will not work over the long term. There are 2 reasons. First we can win no more than 50% of our games on any given day. Lab lines in theory will clear with a win % of 43% but that involves having a streak of wins somewhere in the process to clear lines. Those winning streaks counterbalance the losing streaks and clear lines when you have more money in play. The process we have here does not do that. Every day it is 50% or lower with no long losing streaks or long winning streaks. This won't clear lines over the long run. 50% winners will clear lines as long as you have streaks of 3-4 winners and losers in the mix. So even though we're up at the moment, it is due to the fact that we've been hitting at a little better % on our games than what history shows. So I'm pulling the plug on this endeavour. BOL

But aren't you assuming you are going to hit the same rate on each line each day...which is never going to be the case.

I'm new to the Labby lines... i thought you only needed to hit 33%, not 43% to clear lines?

Yes, I was assuming a +125 average payout on winners. The reason that we were ahead was that the average payout was a little higher than +125. 33% won't clear a line. At 33% your numbers on your line stay the same. For every win you clear two and every loss you add one. 30 wins and 60 losses for example, and you have the same amount of numbers on your lab line. The amounts are a lot higher though and you are losing money in the process. The actual % I think is somewhere around 41% to be more exact. At that % you clear lines and the amounts don't go into the stratosphere.

After giving this some more thought, I'm going to continue this experiment where we left off but with 1 major change. I'm only going to use 1 line with 12 numbers to begin with. At historical stats, we should be able to clear the line every 25 games bet (50 bets)

Picking up where we left off we had 120 still left on the 3 remaining lines so our one line will look like this:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10              Bank = 2044.75

Historical stats dictate that we will win at a 42% rate so we'll see how big our amounts get before we clear the line. 

All bets are 20:

HOU +165     NYM +200     COL +135     WAS +135     LAD RL +115    NYY RL +140

                     PHI RL +105  SF RL +145  

There will be 4 more bets, the other sides of the uncovered 4 above. I'm just waiting a little bit to see if I can get better odds. I'll probably end up screwing myself.

Adding   CWS +135  and a matched pair CIN +150  STL RL +130

I'm toying with the idea with matching the pairs up differently. For example, instead of just betting 20 on the underdog and 20 on the RL favorite, bet 20 on the underdog and 20 on a parlay RL favorite to the over for the game. You will be giving up some wins on the RL that stays under but significantly increasing the payout on the RL winners and will allow me to bet on some of the RL's that are still -odds on some heavy favorites. The logic is that if the underdog can even score 2 runs in the game, the over is more likely to hit then the under if the favorite covers the RL. As long as the favorite is not throwing somebody who is just dominating, this seems reasonable. What got me to thining is that some books won't accept that parlay, the RL favorite to the over. Usually that means there is an edge to the player. One that I use does allow it. Thoughts anyone?

FLA RL +135     ATL RL +140 (improved +20 there. I wonder what happened there)

Just waiting to get down on PIT. Right now they are +165.

Just be done with it.  PIT +165

Adding:

SD +125  20/25   MIL RL +130  20/26

BAL +160  20/32   parlay BOS RL to over 10 (-120)(-110) 20/50  This last game just makes sense to me since the BAL starter can't get anybody out. We'll see.

I've been struggling to determine how to eliminate winners and add losers to the line. I think that I will count every matched pair that does not lose both sides as a win and eliminate two numbers from the line and any matched pair that loses both sides as a loss and add that total loss a two numbers to the line. For example, yesterday we had 8 matched pairs that won so we would eliminate 16 numbers from our line which would in effect wipe out the line but we did have a loser in the SD/MIL game so we would add a total of 40 to the line but split it into two 20's.  Our line would now look like this:

20-20  And we would only bet to clear this line today.  So let's go with  OAK +150  40/60  TOR RL +130  40/52.

BTW the Bank is 2058.75.

TOR wins big and clears the line.  Bank = 2070.25

Line back to 10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

PHI +120 20/24  NYM RL +130 20/26

Line is:

10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

Bank: 2074.25

Today:

STL RL +140  PHI +105

DET +120   MIN RL +160

KC +160  CHW RL +120

All bets are 20