Here are the winning picks for this weekend. There are 24 selections, we are expecting a 15-9 turnout, so you can expect + just under 6 units. Enjoy.
1) Jax -6.5 under 44.5 2) Ten -3.0 under 39.0 3) N.E -3.5 over 41.5 4) Atl pick under 50.0
5) Stl +9.0 over 44.5 6) Sea +9.0 under 43.0 7) GB +2.5 over 45.5 8) Bal -1.0 under 42.0 9) Oak +9.0 over 37.5 10) KC +15.5 under 47.5 11) NYG +3.0 over 43.0 12) Ari -9.5 over 46.0
Here are the winning picks for this weekend. There are 24 selections, we are expecting a 15-9 turnout, so you can expect + just under 6 units. Enjoy.
1) Jax -6.5 under 44.5 2) Ten -3.0 under 39.0 3) N.E -3.5 over 41.5 4) Atl pick under 50.0
5) Stl +9.0 over 44.5 6) Sea +9.0 under 43.0 7) GB +2.5 over 45.5 8) Bal -1.0 under 42.0 9) Oak +9.0 over 37.5 10) KC +15.5 under 47.5 11) NYG +3.0 over 43.0 12) Ari -9.5 over 46.0
I like the idea and trying out new things sdiinc, but this hasn't been a "consistent" year for ANY quarterback.......any chance that would fudge up one component of your formula?
Hey, it ain't perfect.....but it's thinkin outside the box.........best of luck to ya.
I like the idea and trying out new things sdiinc, but this hasn't been a "consistent" year for ANY quarterback.......any chance that would fudge up one component of your formula?
Hey, it ain't perfect.....but it's thinkin outside the box.........best of luck to ya.
go2guy, i wish i would have seen your picks before sunday...i was on balt, nyg, and ten, myself but would have liked to have been on more of those...hope to see you keep posting your picks...very helpful. thanks bro.
go2guy, i wish i would have seen your picks before sunday...i was on balt, nyg, and ten, myself but would have liked to have been on more of those...hope to see you keep posting your picks...very helpful. thanks bro.
Ended up at 9-3 ATS, 7-5 totals, with a last second pointless hail mary in the No-Atl game to throw that one over. We are pleased with a 16-8 week. However week 10 is over and we never look back, always looking forward to next week.
Picks will be posted on Friday for those interested.
I am glad a few people liked the picks.
Ended up at 9-3 ATS, 7-5 totals, with a last second pointless hail mary in the No-Atl game to throw that one over. We are pleased with a 16-8 week. However week 10 is over and we never look back, always looking forward to next week.
Picks will be posted on Friday for those interested.
Daniel, I have to disagree. As an investor, the objective is to have as much money working as frequently as possible. If I took your suggestion, e.g., and only used 5 games per week, then I would only have 10% of the bankroll at work for me in a week. If, on the other hand, I can put it to use at twice that rate, then my opportunity for profit goes up, even if the percentage win rate drops a little.
This is more important in MLB, NBA and NHL, where there are far more games, so you can have 5 or 10 opportunities daily.
I have just started posting NBA and NHL games. The model works better in these sports because of the high number of games played. So, look for those threads under corresponding titles and I welcome your feedback.
Daniel, I have to disagree. As an investor, the objective is to have as much money working as frequently as possible. If I took your suggestion, e.g., and only used 5 games per week, then I would only have 10% of the bankroll at work for me in a week. If, on the other hand, I can put it to use at twice that rate, then my opportunity for profit goes up, even if the percentage win rate drops a little.
This is more important in MLB, NBA and NHL, where there are far more games, so you can have 5 or 10 opportunities daily.
I have just started posting NBA and NHL games. The model works better in these sports because of the high number of games played. So, look for those threads under corresponding titles and I welcome your feedback.
I just did a quick math for you 3 weeks...It's all losing...My point is that you CANNOT win all NFL in a week. Your pick percentage is below 50%. That's not good.
That's why you need to come up with a better strategy and play less game WITH BETTER WINNING PERCENTAGE.
If you play all 13 games in NFL, you will lose your money...
Let's look at the percentage of your games
Week 11 W 4 - L9 (30%)
Week 9 W 6 - L7 (46%)
Week 7 W3 L5 (37%)
I just did a quick math for you 3 weeks...It's all losing...My point is that you CANNOT win all NFL in a week. Your pick percentage is below 50%. That's not good.
That's why you need to come up with a better strategy and play less game WITH BETTER WINNING PERCENTAGE.
If you play all 13 games in NFL, you will lose your money...
Daniel, I understand what you're saying, but picking 3 weeks of NFL out of 52 weeks of sportsbetting to prove a point doesn't prove a point. Just as picking the first few weeks of the season when we were profitable each week and claiming that 'proved' something wouldn't be of much statistical value.
If I accepted your thesis, e.g., of using only 5 games, what should we base this logic on? If 5, why not 4? Or perhaps 6 is the magic number? Or maybe 1 game is the best, that way you can be 100% sometimes.
The formula could be 'wrong', or it could need improvement, or there could be a variety of factors causing a reduction in precision or accuracy from one week to the next, or one season to the next, but I reject the notion that an arbitrary selection of a fewer number of events will guarantee an increase in accuracy.
When I look back at many months of posting, I always get congratulations and laudatory emails when there are winning streaks, and mockery and criticism when there are losers. That's the nature of posting in a public forum.
Daniel, I understand what you're saying, but picking 3 weeks of NFL out of 52 weeks of sportsbetting to prove a point doesn't prove a point. Just as picking the first few weeks of the season when we were profitable each week and claiming that 'proved' something wouldn't be of much statistical value.
If I accepted your thesis, e.g., of using only 5 games, what should we base this logic on? If 5, why not 4? Or perhaps 6 is the magic number? Or maybe 1 game is the best, that way you can be 100% sometimes.
The formula could be 'wrong', or it could need improvement, or there could be a variety of factors causing a reduction in precision or accuracy from one week to the next, or one season to the next, but I reject the notion that an arbitrary selection of a fewer number of events will guarantee an increase in accuracy.
When I look back at many months of posting, I always get congratulations and laudatory emails when there are winning streaks, and mockery and criticism when there are losers. That's the nature of posting in a public forum.
daniel, there is a difference in systems and handicapping.
System: You bet all games that fit the parameters to maximize profit.
Handicapping: Picking games where you think you have a +EV using factors such as weather, injuries, line moves, team desperation conference rivalries, etc
daniel, there is a difference in systems and handicapping.
System: You bet all games that fit the parameters to maximize profit.
Handicapping: Picking games where you think you have a +EV using factors such as weather, injuries, line moves, team desperation conference rivalries, etc
I would have to agree with you guys for the most part. The fewer games you can get away with playing the better. If you want to make money, here is what you have to do. We power rank every team, when the lines come out, we compare what vegas thinks compared to what we think. We take the 5 biggest differences ( including line moves ). I will give you the whole list again, simply because we win no matter what. We like the totals this week as some of them are way off. I will bold the top 5 picks for you too. If you are trying to hit a homerun, play Phi-Cin over, we think the number is low by 6. Good luck all.
1) Atl -6.0 under 50.5 2) Oak +10.5 under 38.5 3) Bal +7.0 over 41.5 4) Ind -8.0 over 50.0 5) G.B -3.5 over 44.0 6) Cin +9.0 over 42.0 7) No -5.0 under 50.0 8) Car -14.0 over 40.0 9) TB -3.5 over 38.5 10) Jax +3.0 under 39.5 11) Stl +6.0 over 44.5 12) Ari -3.0 under 47.5 13) SD +5.0 over 43.0 14) Dal -1.5 under 43.5 15) Buf-4.5 over 42.0
I would have to agree with you guys for the most part. The fewer games you can get away with playing the better. If you want to make money, here is what you have to do. We power rank every team, when the lines come out, we compare what vegas thinks compared to what we think. We take the 5 biggest differences ( including line moves ). I will give you the whole list again, simply because we win no matter what. We like the totals this week as some of them are way off. I will bold the top 5 picks for you too. If you are trying to hit a homerun, play Phi-Cin over, we think the number is low by 6. Good luck all.
1) Atl -6.0 under 50.5 2) Oak +10.5 under 38.5 3) Bal +7.0 over 41.5 4) Ind -8.0 over 50.0 5) G.B -3.5 over 44.0 6) Cin +9.0 over 42.0 7) No -5.0 under 50.0 8) Car -14.0 over 40.0 9) TB -3.5 over 38.5 10) Jax +3.0 under 39.5 11) Stl +6.0 over 44.5 12) Ari -3.0 under 47.5 13) SD +5.0 over 43.0 14) Dal -1.5 under 43.5 15) Buf-4.5 over 42.0
Number of games does not matter at all in this case. sdiinc has a formula that does somthing along the lines of predict the probabily of beating the spread. Most professional gamblers will play any game they feel they have a chance of 55% or better of winning, some even less. If your still confused... read Vanzacks thread "get your balls in the hopper"....
Number of games does not matter at all in this case. sdiinc has a formula that does somthing along the lines of predict the probabily of beating the spread. Most professional gamblers will play any game they feel they have a chance of 55% or better of winning, some even less. If your still confused... read Vanzacks thread "get your balls in the hopper"....
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